文： 泽平宏观团队 任何资产都不会永远下跌，房地产也一样。 2021 年以来，楼市跌了四五年，全国销售额比高点时跌去了一半，一二线城市房价跌了 20%-30% ，部分三四线甚至腰斩，那么， 未来房价还会涨吗？哪些信号出现可以入场？ 最近我提出了一个新观点，在市场上引发广泛讨论， 楼市的二八现象：未来只有 20% 的核心城市 房价会再创新高，剩下 80% 的城市将会长期阴跌。 我研究了 20 多年房地产，出版了三本专著《房地产周期》《全球房地产》《房地产大趋势》，提 出"房地产长期看人口、中期看土地、短期看金融"的分析框架。 根据全球几十个国家的房地产百年历史，总结出了房价涨跌的核心逻辑。 今天咱们就不绕弯子了，给大家拆解未来房价上涨的 3 大信号 ，看懂了可以帮你少走很多弯路。 这 3 大信号都有历史案例和数据支撑，屡试不爽。 第一大信号，政策从"放松"全面转向"鼓励"，定位发生重大转变 房地产市场很大程度上是政策市，受政策影响非常大。货币政策、税费政策、土地政策都会影响市 场。 2016 年国家首次提出"房住不炒 " ，表明国家要遏制投机炒作，降负债、降杠杆。没几年，随着政 策不断加码，房地产历史性拐点出现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is expected to experience a significant shift, with only 20% of core cities likely to see housing prices reach new highs, while the remaining 80% may face prolonged declines [2]. Group 1: Policy Signals - The policy environment is shifting from "relaxation" to "encouragement," indicating a major transformation in the government's approach to the real estate market [3]. - The government has previously emphasized "housing is for living, not for speculation," and is now moving towards measures that will promote market stabilization and recovery [4]. - Future policy measures are expected to include the lifting of purchase restrictions, significant reductions in mortgage rates, and tax relief to restore market confidence [6]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic recovery, indicated by rising employment and household income, is essential for supporting the housing market, with the manufacturing PMI new orders index serving as a key leading indicator [7]. - Historical data shows that when the new orders index rebounds, housing prices in major cities tend to rise, as seen in previous years [7][8]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A reversal in supply-demand dynamics is anticipated, with a decrease in residential land transaction area by 18% year-on-year, while premium land parcels remain highly sought after [10]. - Core cities are experiencing population inflows, which, combined with limited land supply, is expected to improve the supply-demand balance and drive up housing prices [10].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China conducted a survey in 50 cities, revealing a decline in income and employment sentiment among urban residents in the second quarter of 2025 [1][2] Income and Employment Sentiment - The income perception index stands at 45.0%, down by 1.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, with 10.2% of residents feeling their income has "increased" [1] - The employment perception index is at 28.5%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points, with 6.4% believing "the situation is good, and employment is easy" [1] Price and Housing Expectations - The price expectation index for the next quarter is 56.4%, down by 0.7 percentage points, with 20.3% expecting prices to "rise" [1] - For housing prices, 8.9% of residents expect "an increase," while 21.7% anticipate a "decrease" [2] Consumer Behavior and Investment Preferences - 23.3% of residents prefer "more consumption," a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, while 63.8% lean towards "more savings," an increase of 1.5 percentage points [2] - The top five preferred investment methods are "bank non-principal guaranteed wealth management," "fund trust products," "stocks," "bonds," and "non-consumption insurance," with respective preferences of 34.8%, 24.7%, 16.3%, 15.3%, and 9.8% [2] Future Spending Plans - The top five items residents plan to increase spending on in the next three months are travel (32.1%), education (31.9%), healthcare (29.3%), social culture and entertainment (24.0%), and large goods (21.1%) [2]

Group 1: Income Perception - The income perception index for the second quarter of 2025 is 45.0%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous quarter [1][2] - 10.2% of residents believe their income has "increased," 69.7% feel it is "basically unchanged," and 20.1% think their income has "decreased" [2] Group 2: Employment Perception - The employment perception index stands at 28.5%, down 1.8 percentage points from the last quarter [4] - 6.4% of residents view the employment situation as "good and easy," while 53.7% consider it "severe and difficult" or "uncertain" [4] Group 3: Price and Housing Price Expectations - The price expectation index for the next quarter is 56.4%, a decline of 0.7 percentage points from the previous quarter [6] - 20.3% of residents expect prices to "rise," while 60.1% anticipate them to remain "basically unchanged" [6] Group 4: Consumption, Savings, and Investment Willingness - 23.3% of residents are inclined towards "more consumption," a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the last quarter [8] - 63.8% prefer "more savings," an increase of 1.5 percentage points, while 12.9% are inclined towards "more investment," down 1.1 percentage points [8] Group 5: Future Spending Plans - The top five areas where residents plan to increase spending in the next three months are tourism (32.1%), education (31.9%), healthcare (29.3%), social culture and entertainment (24.0%), and big-ticket items (21.1%) [13]