去四年，全国房贷余额居然不增反降，明明卖掉了40多万亿的新房，可银行里的房贷本金却少了。这不是表面上的数字游戏，而是一场已经悄然改变金融生 态的真实风暴。老百姓用实际行动交出了答案——提前还贷12.8万亿。 这组数字背后，是家庭资产负债表的重构，是银行利润模型的崩塌，更是政策底与市场底的博弈。面对这场罕见的"逆周期现象"，两个问题变得格外刺眼： 老百姓为什么在资金紧张的当下选择提前还贷？救市政策是否真的会如期而至？ 2021年末，全国个人房贷余额达到38.32万亿元，是历史上的高点。到2025年二季度末，这一数字却降到了37.74万亿元。哪怕是2024年末，也只有37.68万亿 元，始终没有回到那一年的峰值。 几年前的房贷利率普遍在5%以上，有的甚至超过6%。到了2024、2025年，经过两轮主动下调，很多人的房贷利率已经降到了3.5%甚至更低。可即便如此， 很多人还是选择提前还款。 道理其实很简单：在收入预期变弱、房价下行的周期里，提前还贷等于锁定确定收益。每年少交的利息，就是稳稳的保底利润。在这个讲究"稳妥"的时代， 这种选择看起来更踏实。 这四年里，全国新房销售额年年都在10万亿级别：2022年为13. ...

纽约联储周一发布的报告显示，尽管美国家庭对未来通胀走势的预期保持稳定，但他们在11月对当前和未来财务状况的看法却更加 悲观。该地区联储在调查中指出，受访者对当前财务状况的看法"明显恶化"，而对一年后的展望则"略有恶化"。 全球最大白银etf--iShares Silver Trust持仓报告显示，12月8日白银etf持有量为15888.54吨，较上一交易日减少36.67吨。周一（12月8 日）现货白银尾盘收于58.11美元/盎司，下跌0.29%，盘中白银价格最高上探至58.61美元/盎司，最低触及57.52美元/盎司。 【市场要闻速递】 不过，受访者对就业市场的看法在11月有所改善。报告称，对未来一年失业率上升的预期有所减弱，而在未来一年内失业的可能性 降至自2024年12月以来的最低水平。家庭也下调了主动离职的概率。 此外，纽约联储报告显示，11月通胀预期方面总体温和。未来一年的通胀预期维持在3.2%，与上月一致；三年和五年期的通胀预 期均维持在3%。11月的房价预期也保持稳定，预计上涨3%，同时对一系列大宗商品价格的展望变化不大。但医疗成本的一年期预 期上涨10.1%，为2014年1月以来的最高水平。 ...

Core Insights - The rental yield ratio, a key indicator for property valuation, is gaining attention in the context of Hong Kong's stabilizing real estate market, providing a reference for observing first-tier cities in mainland China [1][5][15] - The report from Guotou Securities indicates that the second-hand housing market in first-tier cities is undergoing price adjustments, with new homes showing resilience in price [1][7] - Hong Kong's real estate market is experiencing a significant recovery, with private residential price indices rising for four consecutive months and rental indices reaching historical highs [1][8][10] Group 1: Market Trends - The second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities have adjusted by 4.4% since April 2025, while new home prices have seen a smaller decline of 0.7% year-on-year [7] - Hong Kong's rental yield has improved, with net rental yields for mid-to-high-end residential properties at 3.04% and older properties at 3.59% [1][15] - The rental index in Hong Kong has increased for ten consecutive months, indicating strong demand and market recovery [1][8] Group 2: Policy Impact - The Hong Kong government's policy shift in February 2024, which removed various property demand management measures, significantly reduced transaction costs, contributing to market recovery [10][13] - The reduction in loan costs, driven by a strong Hong Kong dollar and liquidity injections, has further stimulated housing demand [13][10] - The report emphasizes that stabilizing housing prices is crucial and is largely influenced by macroeconomic inflation expectations [22] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - The rental yield ratios in major international cities like Tokyo, New York, and Hong Kong are around 3%, highlighting the comparative attractiveness of these markets [15][16] - The analysis of rental yields provides insights into the valuation of properties, with Hong Kong's mid-to-high-end properties showing a rental yield of approximately 3.63% [15][16] - Historical patterns indicate that during housing price adjustments, rental yields tend to revert to historical highs, reflecting a common trend across various economies [19][22]

Core Insights - The central viewpoint of the report indicates a significant decline in public confidence regarding future housing prices, with only 9.1% of respondents expecting an increase in the next quarter, while 23.5% anticipate a decrease [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The survey, conducted across 50 cities with 20,000 respondents, shows that the proportion of residents expecting housing price increases has fallen below 10% for two consecutive quarters, indicating a lack of belief in price growth [3]. - Historical data reveals three notable declines in housing price expectations since 2019, with the most recent drop occurring from Q2 2025, where the percentage of those expecting price increases fell to 8.9% [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The report highlights a downward trend in residents' income and employment perceptions, correlating with the decline in housing price expectations [5]. - In Q3 2025, only 19.2% of residents preferred "more consumption," a decrease of 4.1 percentage points from the previous quarter, while 62.3% favored "more savings" [7]. Group 3: Changing Consumer Behavior - The preference for "home buying" has dropped out of the top five spending choices for the first time in three quarters, contrasting with its previous consistent ranking among the top four choices [9]. - The actual housing prices are also declining, with new residential sales prices in 70 major cities dropping by 0.53% month-on-month in March 2025 [9]. Group 4: Demographic Trends - A significant demographic shift is noted, with a predicted reduction of 21 million potential homebuyers by 2030, as the total population has declined for three consecutive years [11][13]. - The average housing price-to-income ratio in major cities is alarmingly high, with first-tier cities reaching 18.2, indicating a severe mismatch between housing prices and residents' purchasing power [15].

Group 1 - In August, the average online signing price for new residential buildings (洋房) in Dongguan reached a new low of 21,708 yuan per square meter, with a total of 1,009 units signed, marking the lowest level of the year [1] - The average online signing price for second-hand residential properties in Dongguan was 13,757 yuan per square meter, also the lowest this year, with 2,380 units signed, representing the lowest monthly signing volume of the year excluding January and February [1][2] - The highest average price for new residential buildings was recorded in Nancheng Street at 44,181 yuan per square meter, followed by Dongcheng Street at 40,610 yuan per square meter [1] Group 2 - In the second-hand housing market, the top five towns by signing volume were Changping Town (209 units), Humen Town (186 units), Nancheng Street (181 units), Zhangmutou (180 units), and Dongcheng Street (151 units), with some areas seeing average prices drop to the "1" range [2] - New residential supply in Dongguan was approximately 60,000 square meters in August, primarily from projects like Vanke Zhen Shan Hui and Hai Yi Hao Ting [2] - The overall residential transaction volume in August hit a new low since 2008, with specific projects like Country Garden Lanting in Daojiao Town contributing to a temporary increase in transactions due to concentrated signing [2][3] Group 3 - The second-hand housing transactions in Dongguan reached a five-year monthly low in August, while the number of listings hit a new high, indicating strong selling intentions among homeowners [3] - There is a notable downward trend in second-hand housing prices, particularly in central urban areas with high inventory levels, affecting the affordability of certain entry-level units [3]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China conducted a survey in 50 cities, revealing a decline in income and employment sentiment among urban residents in the second quarter of 2025 [1][2] Income and Employment Sentiment - The income perception index stands at 45.0%, down by 1.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, with 10.2% of residents feeling their income has "increased" [1] - The employment perception index is at 28.5%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points, with 6.4% believing "the situation is good, and employment is easy" [1] Price and Housing Expectations - The price expectation index for the next quarter is 56.4%, down by 0.7 percentage points, with 20.3% expecting prices to "rise" [1] - For housing prices, 8.9% of residents expect "an increase," while 21.7% anticipate a "decrease" [2] Consumer Behavior and Investment Preferences - 23.3% of residents prefer "more consumption," a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, while 63.8% lean towards "more savings," an increase of 1.5 percentage points [2] - The top five preferred investment methods are "bank non-principal guaranteed wealth management," "fund trust products," "stocks," "bonds," and "non-consumption insurance," with respective preferences of 34.8%, 24.7%, 16.3%, 15.3%, and 9.8% [2] Future Spending Plans - The top five items residents plan to increase spending on in the next three months are travel (32.1%), education (31.9%), healthcare (29.3%), social culture and entertainment (24.0%), and large goods (21.1%) [2]

Group 1: Income Perception - The income perception index for the second quarter of 2025 is 45.0%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous quarter [1][2] - 10.2% of residents believe their income has "increased," 69.7% feel it is "basically unchanged," and 20.1% think their income has "decreased" [2] Group 2: Employment Perception - The employment perception index stands at 28.5%, down 1.8 percentage points from the last quarter [4] - 6.4% of residents view the employment situation as "good and easy," while 53.7% consider it "severe and difficult" or "uncertain" [4] Group 3: Price and Housing Price Expectations - The price expectation index for the next quarter is 56.4%, a decline of 0.7 percentage points from the previous quarter [6] - 20.3% of residents expect prices to "rise," while 60.1% anticipate them to remain "basically unchanged" [6] Group 4: Consumption, Savings, and Investment Willingness - 23.3% of residents are inclined towards "more consumption," a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the last quarter [8] - 63.8% prefer "more savings," an increase of 1.5 percentage points, while 12.9% are inclined towards "more investment," down 1.1 percentage points [8] Group 5: Future Spending Plans - The top five areas where residents plan to increase spending in the next three months are tourism (32.1%), education (31.9%), healthcare (29.3%), social culture and entertainment (24.0%), and big-ticket items (21.1%) [13]

Group 1 - The core issue in the housing market is the financial burden on homeowners, particularly those who purchased older properties at high prices, leading to feelings of regret and financial strain [1][3][6] - Homeowners face multiple challenges, including the inconvenience of living in older buildings, which can affect the quality of life, especially for elderly residents [3][5][6] - The current housing market is under significant pressure due to three main factors: income expectations, housing price expectations, and the need for property upgrades [8][9][30] Group 2 - Income expectations are critical; for instance, in Shenzhen, a typical mortgage for a 5 million yuan home requires a monthly payment of approximately 18,000 yuan, necessitating a monthly income of at least 30,000 yuan to manage living expenses [9][11][12] - Many potential buyers are hesitant to take on large mortgages due to fears of job loss and declining income, leading to a more cautious approach to home buying [14][19] - Housing price expectations also play a significant role; if buyers believe prices will continue to fall, they are less likely to make purchases, further contributing to market stagnation [16][19][21] Group 3 - The quality of new homes is improving, with developers increasingly offering higher standards and innovative designs, which puts additional pressure on the second-hand housing market [23][28] - The disparity in usable space between new and old homes is significant, with new homes often providing better layouts and higher efficiency, making them more attractive to buyers [24][28] - The future of the second-hand housing market appears bleak unless properties are located in prime areas with strong amenities, as the competition from new homes will likely continue to increase [30]

Group 1 - The latest survey by the China Index Academy indicates that the home buying intention among residents has increased, with approximately 16% expressing a willingness to purchase, up by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - There is a notable recovery in confidence regarding property prices in lower-tier cities, with expectations of price declines decreasing to about 53%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points [1] - The expectation of rising property prices has also grown, with 17% anticipating price increases, up by 3.4 percentage points, reflecting an overall improvement in residents' future price expectations [1] Group 2 - Investment willingness among respondents has improved, with 29% indicating a desire to invest, an increase of 10.7 percentage points [1] - Future market trends are expected to be positively influenced by favorable policies, including urban renewal initiatives and potential reductions in home purchase thresholds and increased subsidies [2] - The support for policies related to the acquisition of existing properties is anticipated to strengthen, which may accelerate the revitalization of existing stock [2]