中国央行发布2025年第二季度城镇储户问卷调查报告。本季收入感受指数为45.0%，比上季下降1.2 百 分点。其中，10.2%的居民认为收入"增加"，69.7%的居民认为收入"基本不变"，20.1%的居民认为收 入"减少"。收入信心指数为 45.0%，比上季下降 0.6 个百分点。 2025 年第二季度城镇储户问卷调查报告 2025年第二季度,中国人民银行在全国50个城市进行了2万户城镇储户间卷调查, 结果显示: 四、消费、储蓄和投资意愿 本季就业感受指数为 28.5%,比上季下 降 1.8个百分点。其中,6.4%的居民认为"形 势较好,就业容易",39.9%的居民认为"一 般",53.7%的居民认为"形势严峻,就业难" 或"看不准"。就业预期指数为 41.7%,比上 季下降 1.2个百分点。 数据来源:中国人民银行调查统计司 三、物价和房价预期 对下季度,物价预期指数为56.4%,比 上季下降0.7个百分点。其中,20.3%的居民 预期下季物价将"上升",60.1%的居民预期 "基本不变",9.0%的居民预期"下降",10.6% 的居民"看不准"。 对下季房价,8.9%的居民预期"上涨", 56. 8%的居 ...

Group 1 - The core issue in the housing market is the financial burden on homeowners, particularly those who purchased older properties at high prices, leading to feelings of regret and financial strain [1][3][6] - Homeowners face multiple challenges, including the inconvenience of living in older buildings, which can affect the quality of life, especially for elderly residents [3][5][6] - The current housing market is under significant pressure due to three main factors: income expectations, housing price expectations, and the need for property upgrades [8][9][30] Group 2 - Income expectations are critical; for instance, in Shenzhen, a typical mortgage for a 5 million yuan home requires a monthly payment of approximately 18,000 yuan, necessitating a monthly income of at least 30,000 yuan to manage living expenses [9][11][12] - Many potential buyers are hesitant to take on large mortgages due to fears of job loss and declining income, leading to a more cautious approach to home buying [14][19] - Housing price expectations also play a significant role; if buyers believe prices will continue to fall, they are less likely to make purchases, further contributing to market stagnation [16][19][21] Group 3 - The quality of new homes is improving, with developers increasingly offering higher standards and innovative designs, which puts additional pressure on the second-hand housing market [23][28] - The disparity in usable space between new and old homes is significant, with new homes often providing better layouts and higher efficiency, making them more attractive to buyers [24][28] - The future of the second-hand housing market appears bleak unless properties are located in prime areas with strong amenities, as the competition from new homes will likely continue to increase [30]

Group 1 - The latest survey by the China Index Academy indicates that the home buying intention among residents has increased, with approximately 16% expressing a willingness to purchase, up by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - There is a notable recovery in confidence regarding property prices in lower-tier cities, with expectations of price declines decreasing to about 53%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points [1] - The expectation of rising property prices has also grown, with 17% anticipating price increases, up by 3.4 percentage points, reflecting an overall improvement in residents' future price expectations [1] Group 2 - Investment willingness among respondents has improved, with 29% indicating a desire to invest, an increase of 10.7 percentage points [1] - Future market trends are expected to be positively influenced by favorable policies, including urban renewal initiatives and potential reductions in home purchase thresholds and increased subsidies [2] - The support for policies related to the acquisition of existing properties is anticipated to strengthen, which may accelerate the revitalization of existing stock [2]