香港楼市企稳的背景下，衡量房产估值水平的核心指标——租售比，受到市场更多关注，为观察内地一线城市提供了参考坐标。 进一步来看，国泰海通证券梁中华认为，房子的收益来自两部分，一部分是租金回报，另一部分是房价波动即资本利得。最重要的是稳住房价的 预期，而房价的预期很大程度上决定于宏观通胀的预期，因为房地产、股票、债券等资产价格变化本质上是实体经济的"映射"。 根据国投证券在11月6日发布的报告，2025年二季度以来，一线城市二手房市场正经历价格调整，其中2018-2025年竣工的次新房源价格从第二季 度的116872元/㎡调至第三季度的99169元/㎡，单季度调整15.1%。相较之下，一线城市新房价格表现出较强韧性，年初至今跌幅仅为0.6%。 与此同时，香港楼市显现出显著复苏态势，香港差饷物业估价署最新数据显示，香港私人住宅售价指数已连升4个月，其中9月环比上涨1.32%， 租金指数连涨10个月并创历史新高。 当前香港租金回报率超过房贷利率的格局，不仅改善了投资吸引力，也为房价企稳提供了坚实支撑。这一企稳过程历时15个月，背后是交易成本 下降与利率下行的双重作用。据东北证券测算，香港中高端住宅净租金收益率达3.0 ...

Core Insights - The central viewpoint of the report indicates a significant decline in public confidence regarding future housing prices, with only 9.1% of respondents expecting an increase in the next quarter, while 23.5% anticipate a decrease [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The survey, conducted across 50 cities with 20,000 respondents, shows that the proportion of residents expecting housing price increases has fallen below 10% for two consecutive quarters, indicating a lack of belief in price growth [3]. - Historical data reveals three notable declines in housing price expectations since 2019, with the most recent drop occurring from Q2 2025, where the percentage of those expecting price increases fell to 8.9% [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The report highlights a downward trend in residents' income and employment perceptions, correlating with the decline in housing price expectations [5]. - In Q3 2025, only 19.2% of residents preferred "more consumption," a decrease of 4.1 percentage points from the previous quarter, while 62.3% favored "more savings" [7]. Group 3: Changing Consumer Behavior - The preference for "home buying" has dropped out of the top five spending choices for the first time in three quarters, contrasting with its previous consistent ranking among the top four choices [9]. - The actual housing prices are also declining, with new residential sales prices in 70 major cities dropping by 0.53% month-on-month in March 2025 [9]. Group 4: Demographic Trends - A significant demographic shift is noted, with a predicted reduction of 21 million potential homebuyers by 2030, as the total population has declined for three consecutive years [11][13]. - The average housing price-to-income ratio in major cities is alarmingly high, with first-tier cities reaching 18.2, indicating a severe mismatch between housing prices and residents' purchasing power [15].

Group 1 - In August, the average online signing price for new residential buildings (洋房) in Dongguan reached a new low of 21,708 yuan per square meter, with a total of 1,009 units signed, marking the lowest level of the year [1] - The average online signing price for second-hand residential properties in Dongguan was 13,757 yuan per square meter, also the lowest this year, with 2,380 units signed, representing the lowest monthly signing volume of the year excluding January and February [1][2] - The highest average price for new residential buildings was recorded in Nancheng Street at 44,181 yuan per square meter, followed by Dongcheng Street at 40,610 yuan per square meter [1] Group 2 - In the second-hand housing market, the top five towns by signing volume were Changping Town (209 units), Humen Town (186 units), Nancheng Street (181 units), Zhangmutou (180 units), and Dongcheng Street (151 units), with some areas seeing average prices drop to the "1" range [2] - New residential supply in Dongguan was approximately 60,000 square meters in August, primarily from projects like Vanke Zhen Shan Hui and Hai Yi Hao Ting [2] - The overall residential transaction volume in August hit a new low since 2008, with specific projects like Country Garden Lanting in Daojiao Town contributing to a temporary increase in transactions due to concentrated signing [2][3] Group 3 - The second-hand housing transactions in Dongguan reached a five-year monthly low in August, while the number of listings hit a new high, indicating strong selling intentions among homeowners [3] - There is a notable downward trend in second-hand housing prices, particularly in central urban areas with high inventory levels, affecting the affordability of certain entry-level units [3]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China conducted a survey in 50 cities, revealing a decline in income and employment sentiment among urban residents in the second quarter of 2025 [1][2] Income and Employment Sentiment - The income perception index stands at 45.0%, down by 1.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, with 10.2% of residents feeling their income has "increased" [1] - The employment perception index is at 28.5%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points, with 6.4% believing "the situation is good, and employment is easy" [1] Price and Housing Expectations - The price expectation index for the next quarter is 56.4%, down by 0.7 percentage points, with 20.3% expecting prices to "rise" [1] - For housing prices, 8.9% of residents expect "an increase," while 21.7% anticipate a "decrease" [2] Consumer Behavior and Investment Preferences - 23.3% of residents prefer "more consumption," a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, while 63.8% lean towards "more savings," an increase of 1.5 percentage points [2] - The top five preferred investment methods are "bank non-principal guaranteed wealth management," "fund trust products," "stocks," "bonds," and "non-consumption insurance," with respective preferences of 34.8%, 24.7%, 16.3%, 15.3%, and 9.8% [2] Future Spending Plans - The top five items residents plan to increase spending on in the next three months are travel (32.1%), education (31.9%), healthcare (29.3%), social culture and entertainment (24.0%), and large goods (21.1%) [2]

Group 1: Income Perception - The income perception index for the second quarter of 2025 is 45.0%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous quarter [1][2] - 10.2% of residents believe their income has "increased," 69.7% feel it is "basically unchanged," and 20.1% think their income has "decreased" [2] Group 2: Employment Perception - The employment perception index stands at 28.5%, down 1.8 percentage points from the last quarter [4] - 6.4% of residents view the employment situation as "good and easy," while 53.7% consider it "severe and difficult" or "uncertain" [4] Group 3: Price and Housing Price Expectations - The price expectation index for the next quarter is 56.4%, a decline of 0.7 percentage points from the previous quarter [6] - 20.3% of residents expect prices to "rise," while 60.1% anticipate them to remain "basically unchanged" [6] Group 4: Consumption, Savings, and Investment Willingness - 23.3% of residents are inclined towards "more consumption," a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the last quarter [8] - 63.8% prefer "more savings," an increase of 1.5 percentage points, while 12.9% are inclined towards "more investment," down 1.1 percentage points [8] Group 5: Future Spending Plans - The top five areas where residents plan to increase spending in the next three months are tourism (32.1%), education (31.9%), healthcare (29.3%), social culture and entertainment (24.0%), and big-ticket items (21.1%) [13]

Group 1 - The core issue in the housing market is the financial burden on homeowners, particularly those who purchased older properties at high prices, leading to feelings of regret and financial strain [1][3][6] - Homeowners face multiple challenges, including the inconvenience of living in older buildings, which can affect the quality of life, especially for elderly residents [3][5][6] - The current housing market is under significant pressure due to three main factors: income expectations, housing price expectations, and the need for property upgrades [8][9][30] Group 2 - Income expectations are critical; for instance, in Shenzhen, a typical mortgage for a 5 million yuan home requires a monthly payment of approximately 18,000 yuan, necessitating a monthly income of at least 30,000 yuan to manage living expenses [9][11][12] - Many potential buyers are hesitant to take on large mortgages due to fears of job loss and declining income, leading to a more cautious approach to home buying [14][19] - Housing price expectations also play a significant role; if buyers believe prices will continue to fall, they are less likely to make purchases, further contributing to market stagnation [16][19][21] Group 3 - The quality of new homes is improving, with developers increasingly offering higher standards and innovative designs, which puts additional pressure on the second-hand housing market [23][28] - The disparity in usable space between new and old homes is significant, with new homes often providing better layouts and higher efficiency, making them more attractive to buyers [24][28] - The future of the second-hand housing market appears bleak unless properties are located in prime areas with strong amenities, as the competition from new homes will likely continue to increase [30]

Group 1 - The latest survey by the China Index Academy indicates that the home buying intention among residents has increased, with approximately 16% expressing a willingness to purchase, up by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - There is a notable recovery in confidence regarding property prices in lower-tier cities, with expectations of price declines decreasing to about 53%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points [1] - The expectation of rising property prices has also grown, with 17% anticipating price increases, up by 3.4 percentage points, reflecting an overall improvement in residents' future price expectations [1] Group 2 - Investment willingness among respondents has improved, with 29% indicating a desire to invest, an increase of 10.7 percentage points [1] - Future market trends are expected to be positively influenced by favorable policies, including urban renewal initiatives and potential reductions in home purchase thresholds and increased subsidies [2] - The support for policies related to the acquisition of existing properties is anticipated to strengthen, which may accelerate the revitalization of existing stock [2]