交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2026-2-6 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率同比处高位，随检修回归预计开工将继续回升，综合库存回落， 去库形态较明显。需求端，虽临近春节但订单需求尚可，农业储备需求、贸易需求均良好，工业 需求方面，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工回升明显。出口内外价差大，近期下游需求尚可，国内尿素整 体仍供过于求。交割品现货1760（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2605合约基差-18，升贴水比例-1.0%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存108.9万吨（+0.9），偏多； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率有小幅回落，因西部部分装置停车，综合库存有所回落，去库 形态较明显。需求端，农业需求、工业需求按需为主，复合肥开工率同比明显回升，冬储需求较 强，提振盘面情绪。出口内外价差大，国内尿素整体仍供过于求。交割品现货1690（+10），基 本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差45，升贴水比例2.7%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存139.6万吨（-6.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面弱势下行，工业需求按需为主，库存去库，国内整体供过于求仍 明显，预计UR今日走势震荡偏弱 • 尿素概述： • 利多 • 1、库存去库 • 利空 • 1、国内供过于求 • 2、日产继续新高 尿素早报 2025-12-11 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-12-9 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率有小幅回落，因西部部分装置停车，综合库存有所回落，去库 形态较明显。需求端，农业需求、工业需求按需为主，复合肥开工率同比明显回升，冬储需求较 强，提振盘面情绪。出口内外价差大，国内尿素整体仍供过于求。交割品现货1690（-20），基 本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差44，升贴水比例2.6%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存139.6万吨（-6.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡反弹，工业需求按需为主， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 尿素早报 2025-12-5 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率再次出现回升，重回近年高位，综合库存有所回落，去库形态 较明显。需求端，农业需求近期有所提升，工业需求按需为主，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工率同比均 有所回升。出口内外价差大，库存去库叠加农储需求提升，提振盘面情绪。国内尿素整体仍供过 于求。交割品现货1710（+30），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差22，升贴水比例1.3%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存146.4万吨（-7.3），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of urea in China still exceeds demand, but the improvement in exports has boosted the sentiment of the futures market. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand has weakened in the short term, and industrial demand is moderately weak. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are both low year-on-year. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the pressure on the supply side has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports has improved compared to the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. The overall supply of urea in China still exceeds demand. The spot price of the delivery product is 1610 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -52, and the premium/discount ratio is -3.2%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.566 million tons (-92,000 tons), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures market of the urea main contract shows moderately weak industrial demand, weakening agricultural demand, and improved exports compared to the previous period, which boosts the market sentiment. The overall supply in China still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Improvement in exports [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Excess supply in the domestic market and the commissioning of new production capacities [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes - **Spot Market**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1610 (+20), the Shandong spot price is 1610 (+20), the Henan spot price is 1610 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 2844 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1662 (unchanged), the price of the UR05 contract is 1736 (-1), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1747 (-8). The basis of the UR01 contract is -52 (+20) [6]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.566 million tons (-92,000 tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.484 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 82,000 tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with capacity growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, 13.5% in 2024, and an expected 11.0% in 2025E. The production volume, net import volume, apparent consumption, and other indicators have also shown corresponding changes [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-11-10 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率再次出现回升，综合库存小幅回落。需求端，农业需求受天气 影响有所回升，工业需求中性偏弱，复合肥开工同比中性、三聚氰胺开工率回落。出口内外价大， 出口量提升，出口预期逐渐兑现，提振盘面情绪。国内尿素整体仍供过于求。交割品现货1600 （+30），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差-67，升贴水比例-4.2%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存165.7万吨（-0.7），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面，工业需求 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Morning Report - Report Date: July 25, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The urea market is currently in a state of oscillation. Although international urea prices remain strong, the second batch of domestic export quotas is significantly lower than the first batch, and domestic supply exceeds demand. The report predicts that the UR contract will continue to oscillate today [4]. Key Points Summary Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The domestic urea market shows an obvious oversupply situation. The second batch of export quotas is 120,000 tons, significantly lower than the first batch of 200,000 tons. The daily production and operating rate are still at a relatively high level, and inventories have increased again. Industrial demand, including compound fertilizer and melamine production, has declined, and agricultural demand has weakened. The spot price of the delivery product is 1,750 (+40), indicating a generally bearish fundamental outlook [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is -35, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.0%, suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.422 million tons (+182,000 tons), which is also a bearish factor [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a bullish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is a bearish sign [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is expected to oscillate today, considering the strong international prices, the lower - than - expected export quotas, and the obvious domestic oversupply situation [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: The international urea price remains strong [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: High operating rates and daily production, weak domestic demand, and lower - than - expected export quotas [5]. - **Main Logic**: The main influencing factors are international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot** | The spot price of the delivery product is 1,750 (+40), Shandong spot is 1,760 (+50), Henan spot is 1,750 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2,540 [6]. | | **Futures** | The prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 contracts are 1,796 (+17), 1,804 (+11), and 1,785 (+12) respectively. The basis of the UR2509 contract is -35 [6]. | | **Inventory** | The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.422 million tons (+182,000 tons), including 1.177 million tons of factory inventory and 245,000 tons of port inventory. The number of warehouse receipts is 2,523 (unchanged) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2,245.5 | - | 1,956.81 | 18.6% | 2,405.19 | 23.66 | 2,405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2,445.5 | 8.9% | 2,240 | 17.9% | 2,727.94 | 37.86 | 2,713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2,825.5 | 15.5% | 2,580.98 | 19.3% | 3,200.1 | 37.83 | 3,200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3,148.5 | 11.4% | 2,927.99 | 10.7% | 3,280.4 | 35.72 | 3,282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3,413.5 | 8.4% | 2,965.46 | 10.2% | 3,300.83 | 44.62 | 3,291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3,893.5 | 14.1% | 3,193.59 | 8.4% | 3,486.72 | 44.65 | 3,486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4,418.5 | 13.5% | 3,425 | 9.5% | 3,785 | 51.4 | 3,778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4,906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10] |

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The urea market shows overall oversupply, with the international situation causing supply tightness and price increases, and the domestic agricultural demand improving slightly. It is expected that the UR contract will trend weakly with oscillations today [4]. - The main bullish factors are the rising international prices and the marginal improvement of domestic agricultural demand, while the main bearish factors are the high levels of production and inventory [5]. - The main logic lies in the marginal changes of international supply and domestic demand, and the main risk is the change in export policies [5]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The recent urea futures have been oscillating. International supply tightness has led to price increases, affecting the domestic market. Supply is at a multi - year high in terms of production rate and daily output, with inventory fluctuating slightly. Industrial demand shows a decline in compound fertilizer production and an increase in melamine production, while agricultural demand has improved. The overall supply - demand balance is still in oversupply, and export policies remain restricted. The spot price of the delivery product is 1920 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 200, with a premium - discount ratio of 10.4%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 980,000 tons (-218,000), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Main positions**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is oscillating. With international supply tightness and price increases and the improvement of agricultural demand, but still significant oversupply, it is expected that the UR will trend weakly with oscillations today [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1920 | 0 | 09 Contract | 1711 | -19 | Warehouse Receipts | 3581 | 0 | | Shandong Spot | 1930 | -20 | Basis | 209 | 19 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 980 | -218 | | Henan Spot | 1920 | -3 | UR01 | 1686 | -3 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 817 | -248 | | FOB China | 2549 | | UR05 | 1703 | -6 | UR Port Inventory | 163 | 30 | | | | | UR09 | 1711 | -19 | | | | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [10]