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张军扩:加快形成与新阶段相适应的城乡建设和房地产发展新模式
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-27 02:38
Core Viewpoint - The current market faces insufficient demand, characterized by strong supply and weak demand, leading to price weakness. Effective release of consumer demand potential requires both short-term and long-term strategies to address structural issues [1][6]. Group 1: Demand and Consumption - Structural reasons for insufficient demand include a long-term low consumption rate, estimated to be 10% to 20% below potential. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for expanding domestic demand [2][7]. - The transition in consumer behavior from goods-oriented consumption to a balance of goods and services requires adjustments in economic structure and development methods, necessitating both government and market involvement [1][6]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - To stimulate consumption, policies should focus on counter-cyclical measures that optimize the support structure for goods consumption while enhancing support for service consumption. This includes increasing subsidies for education, healthcare, and other essential services to boost consumer willingness and capacity [3][8]. - Implementing a plan to increase residents' income and improving social security for low-income groups are crucial for enhancing consumer confidence and security [3][8]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - There remains significant potential for investment, which should be supported by systemic and policy innovations. While consumer demand is essential for economic growth, investment should not be neglected [4][9]. - Key areas for investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" include developing new urban and real estate models and boosting private and foreign investment through improved business environments and regulatory reforms [4][9].
张军扩:持续有效释放消费需求潜力要长短兼顾、标本兼治
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-27 02:33
Core Viewpoint - The current market faces insufficient demand, characterized by strong supply and weak demand, leading to price weakness. Effective release of consumer demand potential requires both short-term and long-term strategies to address structural issues [1][6]. Group 1: Demand and Consumption - Structural reasons for insufficient demand include a long-term low consumption rate, estimated to be 10% to 20% below potential. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for expanding domestic demand [2][7]. - The transition of consumer behavior from goods-oriented to a balance of goods and services consumption necessitates a dual approach to stimulate demand and optimize economic structure [1][6]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - Implement counter-cyclical consumption demand stimulus policies that optimize the support structure for goods consumption while increasing support for service consumption. This includes addressing urgent public needs in education, healthcare, and social security to enhance consumer willingness and capacity [3][8]. - Effectively execute a plan to increase residents' income and improve social security and public service levels for low-income groups, thereby boosting consumer confidence and security expectations [3][8]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - There remains significant potential for investment, which should be supported through institutional and policy innovations. While consumer demand is crucial for economic growth, investment should not be neglected [4][9]. - Key focus areas for expanding effective investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" include developing new urban and real estate models and boosting private and foreign investment through improved business environments and reforms [4][9].