FICC日报 | 2025-12-30 贵金属板块承压，做好节前风险管理 市场分析 政策预期回摆。12月8日中共中央政治局会议召开：强调"继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"， 延续此前措辞。并强调"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"，逆周期和跨周期并提或意味着在总量维持的前提下，明 年政策边际增量更需要等待稳增长节点。12月11日中央经济工作会议召开：会议强调，深入实施提振消费专项行 动；强调深入整治"内卷式"竞争制定和实施；会议确认，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重 要考量。后续继续提振消费，以及推进"反内卷"的大方向并未发生变化，未来物价回升路径仍需关注供给侧的政 策方向。在此基础上，多部委同步响应落实：央行明确将灵活高效运用降准降息等货币政策工具，央行四季度例 会指出，继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度；发改委聚焦出台消费提振实招新招、整 治内卷并培育新动能；财政部则提出用好用足政府债券资金、发行超长期特别国债，着力推动投资止跌回稳。数 据方面，中国11月外贸增速录得回升，以美元计价出口同比转增5.9%，进口同比增1.9%。中国11月经济数据仍承 压，消费环比 ...

来源:金融界AI电报 "2025三亚·财经国际论坛暨第五届三亚财富管理大会"12月27日召开，第十四届全国政协委员、中国发 展研究基金会理事长、国务院发展研究中心原副主任张军扩发表演讲时表示，"十五五"充分有效释放居 民消费需求潜力需要标本兼治，更加突出结构性对策。一是逆周期性消费刺激政策，要在总量不减、持 续用力的前提下，不断优化商品性消费的支持范围和结构，并以更大力度支持服务性消费，特别是要按 照投资于人的要求，针对群众急难愁盼的教育、医疗、养老、生育等方面问题，通过加大补贴力度，提 振消费意愿，增强消费能力。二是要适应我国发展阶段和水平变化需要，以较大力度提高低收入人群的 社会保障和公共服务水平，有效提升我国居民的安全保障预期和消费信心。三是加大供给侧政策力度， 要通过减少准入限制、优化监管政策、加大国内标准、品牌、环境建设力度等举措，扩大优质服务供 给，特别是要针对国内急需而供给难以满足的服务消费领域，加大对内放开和对外开放力度，尽快通过 市场力量引入优质服务供给资源更好满足需求。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market faces insufficient demand, characterized by strong supply and weak demand, leading to price weakness. Effective release of consumer demand potential requires both short-term and long-term strategies to address structural issues [1][6]. Group 1: Demand and Consumption - Structural reasons for insufficient demand include a long-term low consumption rate, estimated to be 10% to 20% below potential. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for expanding domestic demand [2][7]. - The transition in consumer behavior from goods-oriented consumption to a balance of goods and services requires adjustments in economic structure and development methods, necessitating both government and market involvement [1][6]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - To stimulate consumption, policies should focus on counter-cyclical measures that optimize the support structure for goods consumption while enhancing support for service consumption. This includes increasing subsidies for education, healthcare, and other essential services to boost consumer willingness and capacity [3][8]. - Implementing a plan to increase residents' income and improving social security for low-income groups are crucial for enhancing consumer confidence and security [3][8]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - There remains significant potential for investment, which should be supported by systemic and policy innovations. While consumer demand is essential for economic growth, investment should not be neglected [4][9]. - Key areas for investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" include developing new urban and real estate models and boosting private and foreign investment through improved business environments and regulatory reforms [4][9].

Core Viewpoint - The current market faces insufficient demand, characterized by strong supply and weak demand, leading to price weakness. Effective release of consumer demand potential requires both short-term and long-term strategies to address structural issues [1][6]. Group 1: Demand and Consumption - Structural reasons for insufficient demand include a long-term low consumption rate, estimated to be 10% to 20% below potential. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for expanding domestic demand [2][7]. - The transition of consumer behavior from goods-oriented to a balance of goods and services consumption necessitates a dual approach to stimulate demand and optimize economic structure [1][6]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - Implement counter-cyclical consumption demand stimulus policies that optimize the support structure for goods consumption while increasing support for service consumption. This includes addressing urgent public needs in education, healthcare, and social security to enhance consumer willingness and capacity [3][8]. - Effectively execute a plan to increase residents' income and improve social security and public service levels for low-income groups, thereby boosting consumer confidence and security expectations [3][8]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - There remains significant potential for investment, which should be supported through institutional and policy innovations. While consumer demand is crucial for economic growth, investment should not be neglected [4][9]. - Key focus areas for expanding effective investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" include developing new urban and real estate models and boosting private and foreign investment through improved business environments and reforms [4][9].

作者：肖燕燕，金十数据 美国总统特朗普周二在内阁会议上表示，他将"在明年初"宣布他选择的接替鲍威尔出任美联储主席的人 选，这进一步延续了这场长达数月的"选秀"过程，尽管他曾表示自己已经知道要由谁来领导这家全球最 重要的央行。 特朗普在会议上还提到，领导此次遴选过程的财政部长贝森特本人不想担任美联储主席一职，但未透露 他可能属意谁。 特朗普上周日曾告诉记者，他知道计划提名谁作为鲍威尔的继任者。鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于明年 5月结束。当被问及人选是否是他的首席经济顾问、也是在线博彩市场热门人选的凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）时，特朗普没有回答。他在周二再次表示，已将名单缩小到一人。 "我猜一位潜在的美联储主席也在这里。我能说吗？潜在的。他是一位受人尊敬的人，这我可以告诉你 们。谢谢你，凯文。"特朗普在周二晚些时候的白宫活动上说。 现年63岁的哈塞特在特朗普首个任期内曾担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席。他通过定期（即便不是每周） 在CNBC、福克斯新闻等电视节目中露面，证明了自己对总统的忠诚。在这些场合，他支持特朗普全面 的进口关税政策，并呼吁降低利率。 作为一位狂热的电视观众，特朗普很可能经常看到哈塞特， ...

Core Insights - The main focus of the article is on the performance and management of the QuanGuo SiYuan Three-Year Holding Period Mixed A Fund, highlighting its strong returns and strategic investment approach under the management of fund manager Gang Dengfeng [1][4]. Fund Performance - As of November 14, 2025, the fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 31.36%, outperforming its benchmark growth rate of 17.08% and exceeding the average return of mixed funds during the same period [1]. - Over the past two years, the fund's return has been 36.37%, which is higher than the performance benchmark of 29.50% [1]. - The fund's total management scale reached 27.73 billion yuan, with a growth of 6.70 billion yuan (32.60%) in the last three months, bringing the scale to 27.25 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [1]. Fund Manager Profile - Gang Dengfeng, the current fund manager, has 16 years of experience in the securities industry and has held various positions in asset management and research [3]. - He has managed multiple funds prior to his current role, demonstrating a strong track record in fund management [3]. Investment Strategy - The fund manager is optimistic about sectors such as technological innovation, particularly in AI and consumer electronics, anticipating significant product launches in 2025 [4]. - The fund maintains a substantial position in leading companies in the lithium battery sector, which is expected to recover and grow following a recent downturn [4]. - Traditional industries are facing challenges, but potential opportunities may arise from supply-side policies and technological upgrades, particularly in sectors like electrolytic aluminum and steel [4].

Core Insights - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) is experiencing a stalemate between bulls and bears, with a recent trading volume of 3.92% and a transaction value of 1.259 billion yuan [1] - As of October 31, the average daily trading volume for the 30-year Treasury ETF over the past month was 9.994 billion yuan, indicating strong market activity [1] - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 32.162 billion yuan, with a total of 268 million shares outstanding [1] - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past three days, totaling 920 million yuan, with a peak single-day net inflow of 418 million yuan [1] Policy and Market Dynamics - The central bank maintains a loose liquidity stance, with the governor stating that the bond market is operating well and plans to resume public market operations for government bonds [2] - On November 3, the central bank conducted a 783 million yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, while 337.3 billion yuan in reverse repos were set to mature on the same day [2] - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year government bonds, serving as a benchmark for investments in this category [2]

Group 1 - The potential of domestic demand in China is significant, and the key is to effectively release it through targeted policies [1] - Three main policy areas are suggested to stimulate consumer demand: implementing counter-cyclical consumption stimulus policies, enhancing social security and public services for low-income groups, and increasing supply-side policies to expand quality service offerings [1][2] - Effective investment should be prioritized alongside consumer demand, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate market and promoting investment in traditional industries, strategic emerging industries, and infrastructure projects [2] Group 2 - Policies to stabilize expectations and invigorate private enterprises are essential, including the implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law and reducing administrative discretion to enhance business confidence [3] - There is a need for better alignment and coordination between non-economic policies and macroeconomic policies to avoid disruptions caused by formalism or excessive regulations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The newly confirmed Federal Reserve Governor, Steven Myron, advocates for a 50 basis point interest rate cut, citing disinflationary forces that will likely bring inflation down in the near term [1][2]. Disinflationary Forces - Myron identifies lower immigration as a significant disinflationary factor, noting that the closure of borders has led to a decrease in shelter inflation due to a relatively fixed supply of housing [3][4]. - He argues that there is no material evidence of inflation driven by tariffs, stating that import-intensive core goods have not inflated more than overall core goods [5][8]. Economic Outlook - Myron expresses a positive economic outlook for the second half of the year, attributing previous uncertainties to tax hikes and trade policy changes that have since been resolved [17][18]. - He believes that the incentives for investment from full expensing in the tax cuts will significantly boost economic growth without leading to inflation [19][20]. Monetary Policy Perspective - Myron emphasizes that the current monetary policy is restrictive and poses risks to employment, advocating for a quicker return to a neutral policy stance [19][20]. - He suggests that the Federal Reserve's traditional growth forecast of 2% is overly conservative and does not account for potential growth driven by supply-side policies [12][15]. Tariff Inflation Debate - Myron notes a shift in perception regarding tariff-driven inflation, indicating that many forecasters are beginning to agree that any inflationary impact from tariffs is less significant than previously thought [21][22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the driving factors behind the recent recovery in the equity market, emphasizing that attributing the market's rise to a single perspective is insufficient. It highlights the importance of economic fundamentals, liquidity, and risk appetite as contributing factors [1][2][3] - The article notes that from September last year to May this year, economic fundamentals were highly effective, with the recovery of profit expectations under a stable growth policy serving as the basis for market pricing recovery [2][3] - It identifies two periods of divergence between economic indicators and market performance: from Q2 to Q4 of 2021 and from June to August of this year, both characterized by ample liquidity but insufficient credit expansion due to local investment shortfalls [2][3] Group 2 - The article mentions that in the second week of August, the speed of asset rotation decreased, with a "risk on" sentiment dominating the stock and currency markets. The domestic ChiNext index led the gains, while global markets also showed positive trends [4][5] - It highlights that the rotation index for major assets has slowed down since mid-June, indicating a certain degree of persistence in strong assets and a return to a more focused trading approach [4][5] - The article discusses the performance of various asset classes, noting that the A-share market exhibited a pattern of rising prices, expanding volume, and low volatility, while the concentration of winning sectors increased [4][5][6] Group 3 - The article outlines the impact of U.S. economic data on market expectations, particularly the mixed signals from CPI and PPI, which influenced the fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar's performance [7][8] - It notes that the U.S. retail sales data showed resilience despite a slowdown compared to last year, with specific categories like furniture and clothing performing well [14] - The article also discusses the implications of the upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank meeting, where the Fed's stance on monetary policy will be closely watched [11][12][13] Group 4 - The article highlights the recent adjustments in China's monetary policy, emphasizing a focus on stabilizing prices and supporting credit flow to the real economy [19][20] - It mentions the seasonal contraction of narrow liquidity due to tax payment periods, with the central bank's report indicating a positive outlook for price levels [18][19] - The article discusses the increase in project funding and the improvement in the funding rate for construction projects, indicating a potential recovery in infrastructure investment [21] Group 5 - The article details a new policy in China providing a 1% interest subsidy for personal consumption loans, which is expected to stimulate consumer spending [22][23] - It estimates that this policy could boost retail sales by approximately 0.2-0.3 percentage points, reflecting the government's efforts to enhance consumer demand [22][23] - The article also discusses the recent trends in commodity prices, noting fluctuations in various sectors, including energy and industrial products [25][26]