Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the driving factors behind the recent recovery in the equity market, emphasizing that attributing the market's rise to a single perspective is insufficient. It highlights the importance of economic fundamentals, liquidity, and risk appetite as contributing factors [1][2][3] - The article notes that from September last year to May this year, economic fundamentals were highly effective, with the recovery of profit expectations under a stable growth policy serving as the basis for market pricing recovery [2][3] - It identifies two periods of divergence between economic indicators and market performance: from Q2 to Q4 of 2021 and from June to August of this year, both characterized by ample liquidity but insufficient credit expansion due to local investment shortfalls [2][3] Group 2 - The article mentions that in the second week of August, the speed of asset rotation decreased, with a "risk on" sentiment dominating the stock and currency markets. The domestic ChiNext index led the gains, while global markets also showed positive trends [4][5] - It highlights that the rotation index for major assets has slowed down since mid-June, indicating a certain degree of persistence in strong assets and a return to a more focused trading approach [4][5] - The article discusses the performance of various asset classes, noting that the A-share market exhibited a pattern of rising prices, expanding volume, and low volatility, while the concentration of winning sectors increased [4][5][6] Group 3 - The article outlines the impact of U.S. economic data on market expectations, particularly the mixed signals from CPI and PPI, which influenced the fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar's performance [7][8] - It notes that the U.S. retail sales data showed resilience despite a slowdown compared to last year, with specific categories like furniture and clothing performing well [14] - The article also discusses the implications of the upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank meeting, where the Fed's stance on monetary policy will be closely watched [11][12][13] Group 4 - The article highlights the recent adjustments in China's monetary policy, emphasizing a focus on stabilizing prices and supporting credit flow to the real economy [19][20] - It mentions the seasonal contraction of narrow liquidity due to tax payment periods, with the central bank's report indicating a positive outlook for price levels [18][19] - The article discusses the increase in project funding and the improvement in the funding rate for construction projects, indicating a potential recovery in infrastructure investment [21] Group 5 - The article details a new policy in China providing a 1% interest subsidy for personal consumption loans, which is expected to stimulate consumer spending [22][23] - It estimates that this policy could boost retail sales by approximately 0.2-0.3 percentage points, reflecting the government's efforts to enhance consumer demand [22][23] - The article also discusses the recent trends in commodity prices, noting fluctuations in various sectors, including energy and industrial products [25][26]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Black night trading weakened. In the short - term, steel inventory pressure is not significant, but the off - season demand has low acceptance of high prices. The main contract is approaching the position transfer. It is expected that the high price will fluctuate. Previously, it was recommended to buy on dips, and current long positions can be held. Be cautious about chasing long positions due to limited release of terminal demand [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Most steel prices decreased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3370 to 3360 yuan/ton, and the spot price of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased from 3470 to 3460 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 6 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil increased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.2 to 240.5 tons, a decrease of 0.1%. The output of five major steel products increased by 1.8 to 869.2 tons, an increase of 0.2%. The rebar output increased by 10.1 to 221.2 tons, an increase of 4.8%, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 7.9 to 314.9 tons, a decrease of 2.4% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 23.5 to 1375.4 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The rebar inventory increased by 10.4 to 556.7 tons, an increase of 1.9%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.7 to 356.6 tons, an increase of 2.5% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.9 to 9.7 tons, a decrease of 8.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 6.3 to 845.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 7.4 to 210.8 tons, an increase of 3.6%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 13.8 to 306.2 tons, a decrease of 4.3% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Last week, the 2509 iron ore contract showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. In the future, the pig iron output in August will remain high, but is expected to decrease slightly to around 236 tons per day on average. Unilateral trading is recommended to buy the 2601 contract on dips, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal 01 and short on iron ore 01 [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased from 800.0 to 792.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.0%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 3.5 to - 37.0, an increase of 8.6% [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 267.3 to 2507.8 tons, an increase of 11.9%, and the global shipment volume decreased by 139.1 to 3061.8 tons, a decrease of 4.3%. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8 tons, an increase of 8.0% [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4 to 240.3 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports increased by 19.1 to 321.9 tons, an increase of 6.3%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5 tons, a decrease of 3.0%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4 tons, a decrease of 3.9% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 28.7 to 13712.27 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 to 9013.3 tons, an increase of 0.0%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 20.0 days, a decrease of 4.8% [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Last week, coke and coking coal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom. There is still a possibility of further price increases for coke. For both coke and coking coal, the speculative strategy is to buy the 2601 contract on dips, and the arbitrage strategy is to do 9 - 1 reverse spreads [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1347 yuan/ton. The coke 09 contract decreased by 14 to 1668 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.84%. The coking profit of Steel Union decreased by 11 to - 54 yuan/ton [6]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1260 yuan/ton, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) increased by 5 to 1139 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.4%. The coking coal 09 contract decreased by 18 to 1070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.6%. The sample coal mine profit increased by 22 to 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.34% [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.1 tons, an increase of 0.4%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 46.8 tons, a decrease of 0.44%. The raw coal output decreased by 9.7 to 859.0 tons, a decrease of 1.1%, and the clean coal output decreased by 5.1 to 439.0 tons, a decrease of 1.1% [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4 to 240.3 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.1 tons, an increase of 0.4%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 46.8 tons, a decrease of 0.49% [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 8.3 to 907.2 tons, a decrease of 0.9%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 6.7 to 112.0 tons, a decrease of 5.7%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.8 to 987.9 tons, a decrease of 0.5% [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that with the gradual recovery of coal prices, supply-side policy expectations are once again catalyzing sector sentiment, potentially leading to a new round of opportunities in the coal sector [1] - It is anticipated that under the resonance of supply and demand expectations, the sector may experience significant upward movement, especially if supply-side policies and growth stabilization policies further overlap [1] - The coal ETF (515220) tracks the China Securities Coal Index (399998), which selects representative companies from the coal industry to reflect market performance and development trends [1] Group 2 - The China Securities Coal Index emphasizes the scale and liquidity of companies, providing insights into the overall supply and demand situation and market dynamics of the coal industry [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai China Securities Coal ETF Link C (008280) and Guotai China Securities Coal ETF Link A (008279) [1]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, waiting for the strength of peak - season demand. Considering the limited spot inventory, it is advisable to operate on the low side during price corrections. Pay attention to 3230 yuan for rebar and 3380 yuan for hot - rolled coils [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 40 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 60 yuan/ton respectively; hot - rolled coil spot prices in these regions all dropped by 60 yuan/ton. Futures prices also decreased significantly, with the rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts falling by 107 yuan, 108 yuan, and 110 yuan respectively, and the hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts falling by 103 yuan, 110 yuan, and 109 yuan respectively [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 80 yuan to 3080 yuan, while the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China increased by 48 yuan, and the profit of rebar in South China increased by 38 yuan [1] - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a rise of 1.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.2 to 867.0, a decline of 0.1%. Rebar output increased by 2.9 to 212.0, a rise of 1.4%, with converter output increasing by 5.4 to 188.0 (a 2.9% increase) and electric - furnace output decreasing by 2.5 to 23.9 (a 9.3% decrease). Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 3.6 to 317.5, a decline of 1.1% [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.2 to 1336.5, a decline of 0.1%. Rebar inventory decreased by 4.6 to 538.6, a decline of 0.9%, while hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.3 to 345.2, a rise of 0.7% [1] - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.6 to 10.1, a decline of 13.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0 to 868.1, a decline of 0.2%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 10.4 to 216.6, a rise of 5.0%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.6 to 315.2, a decline of 2.6% [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - In the future, pig iron output in July will remain high, with an average expected to stay around 2.4 million tons per day. Improving steel mill profits will support raw materials, but there is a seesaw effect between coking coal, coke, and iron ore. Unilateral trading is advised to be cautiously long, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties changed. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines increased by 4.4 to 793.4, a rise of 0.6%, while the warehouse receipt cost of PB fines decreased by 2.2 to 818.4, a decline of 0.3%. The 09 - contract basis of various iron ore varieties generally increased, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 5.5 to - 43.5, a rise of 11.2%, while the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4.5 to 23.0, a decline of 16.4% [3] - **Supply**: The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 130.7 to 2240.5, a decline of 5.5%. The global weekly shipping volume increased by 91.8 to 3200.9, a rise of 3.0%. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8, a rise of 8.0% [3] - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.2 to 242.2, a decline of 0.1%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports decreased by 7.6 to 315.2, a decline of 2.4%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5, a decline of 3.0%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4, a decline of 3.9% [3] - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 104.2 to 13686.23, a decline of 0.8%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 63.1 to 8885.2, a rise of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a rise of 5.0% [3] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - **Coke**: Speculative trading is advised to be cautiously long, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on coke and short on iron ore, while avoiding exchange intervention risks. - **Coking Coal**: Speculative trading is advised to be cautiously long, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore, also avoiding exchange intervention risks [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1296 yuan/ton, while the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1420 yuan/ton. The coke 09 and 01 contracts increased by 44 yuan and 50 yuan respectively. The coking profit calculated by the Steel Union decreased by 11 yuan/week [4] - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1260 yuan/ton, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1155 yuan/ton. The coking coal 09 contract decreased by 4 yuan, and the 01 contract increased by 18 yuan. The sample coal mine profit increased by 27 yuan/week, a rise of 8.3% [4] - **Supply**: The weekly average daily output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.4 to 64.6, a rise of 0.6%, and the weekly average daily output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 47.2, a rise of 0.1%. The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased, with raw coal output decreasing by 4.3 to 862.3, a decline of 0.5%, and clean coal output decreasing by 1.5 to 441.0, a decline of 0.3% [4] - **Demand**: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.2 to 242.2, a decline of 0.1%. The demand for coke is mainly reflected in the relatively high pig iron output, and the demand for coking coal is also supported by the slightly increased coking plant operation rate [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 7.4 to 918.2, a decline of 0.8%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 7.4 to 80.1, a decline of 8.5%, while the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 1.0 to 640.0, a rise of 0.2%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 25.5 to 132.6, a decline of 16.1%, and the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 56.3 to 985.4, a rise of 6.1% [4] - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.6 to - 5.5, a rise of 10.2% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - The steel market is expected to remain strong. The recent positive arbitrage by spot - futures traders has helped digest inventory, and there was no inventory accumulation during the off - season despite high production. If northern steel mills cut production in August and demand recovers in the peak season, it can support high iron - water production in the third quarter and the valuation of the black series. Technically, steel prices have broken through previous highs, and long positions can be considered [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore 09 contract showed an oscillating upward trend. Global iron ore shipments increased last week, but those from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly. The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased last week, and the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to rise slightly. On the demand side, steel mill profit margins are at a relatively high level, the maintenance volume has decreased, and iron - water production has remained high. Steel exports are strong, and short - term iron - water production is resilient. Terminal demand has shown a strong performance during the off - season. In the inventory aspect, port inventory increased slightly last week, and the port clearance volume decreased. In the future, iron - water production in July will remain high, and steel mill profits will continue to improve, providing support for raw materials. However, there are new supply - side policy expectations, and iron ore prices are likely to follow the rise of steel prices due to production cuts [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both coke and coking coal futures showed a bottom - bouncing trend. For coke, the factory price has been raised, and the fourth - round price increase of mainstream coking enterprises has been implemented. Supply is still tight as coal mine复产 is slow, and demand has been supported by the recovery of blast furnaces after the end of environmental restrictions in Tangshan. For coking coal, the spot auction price is generally stable with a slight upward trend. The supply is tight, and demand has increased as steel mills have stepped up restocking. Although there was a limit - down in the futures market due to regulatory intervention, the spot market still has price - increase expectations. For both, speculative trading should be cautious, and arbitrage strategies can consider going long on coke/coking coal and short on iron ore [6]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of various steel products, including rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions, have increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3390 yuan/ton to 3430 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of rebar increased from 3311 yuan/ton to 3399 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The prices of steel billets and slab billets changed, with the steel billet price rising by 70 yuan/ton to 3150 yuan/ton. The costs of different types of rebar production decreased, and the profits of steel products in different regions and varieties also decreased. For example, the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 103 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average iron - water production increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a 1.1% increase. The production of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.2 to 867.0, a 0.1% decrease. The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly, with the rebar inventory decreasing by 4.6 to 538.6, a 0.9% decrease, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increasing by 2.3 to 345.2, a 0.7% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building material trading volume increased by 2.1 to 12.2, a 20.4% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0 to 868.1, a 0.2% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 10.4 to 216.6, a 5.0% increase, and that for hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.6 to 315.2, a 2.6% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore types increased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract for different iron ore types decreased. The 5 - 9 spread decreased, the 9 - 1 spread decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread increased [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port increased slightly, while the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe decreased [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) decreased by 130.7 to 2240.5, a 5.5% decrease. The global shipment volume (weekly) increased by 91.8 to 3200.9, a 3.0% increase. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8, an 8.0% increase [4]. Demand - The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased slightly by 0.2 to 242.2, a 0.1% decrease. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) decreased by 7.6 to 315.2, a 2.4% decrease. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 104.2 to 13686.23, a 0.8% decrease. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 63.1 to 8885.2, a 0.7% increase. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a 5.0% increase [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - For coke, the 09 and 01 contract prices increased, and the basis decreased. The profit of coking enterprises decreased. For coking coal, the 09 and 01 contract prices also increased, and the basis changed. The profit of sample coal mines increased [6]. Supply - The weekly coke production of the whole - sample coking plants increased slightly, and the weekly production of 247 steel mills also increased slightly. The weekly raw coal and clean coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased [6]. Demand - The weekly iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, and the weekly coke production of the whole - sample coking plants increased slightly [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased slightly, with the inventory of coking plants and ports decreasing and that of steel mills increasing slightly. The coking coal inventory of steel mills increased, and the port inventory decreased [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased slightly, indicating a slight improvement in the supply - demand relationship [6].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The recent steel price increase is mainly driven by coal policies, with little change in the steel supply - demand situation. Later, focus on tariff interference in August and the impact of coking coal fluctuations on steel. After the weekend decline, the steel price may fluctuate downward on Monday, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions and expect the steel price to enter an oscillatory pattern [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various steel products, including rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contracts, have generally increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3380 to 3430 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The prices of steel billets and slab billets have changed, and the costs and profits of different steel - making processes and regions have also fluctuated. For instance, the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 7 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 9 yuan [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 1.1% to 242.6 tons, the output of five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.1% to 867.0 tons, the rebar output increased by 1.4% to 212.0 tons, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 1.1% to 317.5 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.1% to 1336.5 tons, the rebar inventory decreased by 0.9% to 538.6 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.7% to 345.2 tons [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 5.2% to 11.7 tons, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.2% to 868.1 tons, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 5.0% to 216.6 tons, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 2.6% to 315.2 tons [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The 09 contract of iron ore showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week. In the future, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices and switch to short - selling operations [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties, such as Carajás fines, PB fines, etc., have changed, and the basis of the 09 contract has also fluctuated significantly. For example, the basis of PB fines in the 09 contract decreased by 63.4% [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 10.9% to 2371.2 tons, the global weekly shipping volume increased by 4.1% to 3109.1 tons, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 4.9% to 9813.1 tons [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1% to 242.2 tons, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 2.4% to 315.2 tons, the national monthly pig iron output increased by 2.1% to 7411.4 tons, and the national monthly crude steel output increased by 0.6% to 8654.5 tons [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased by 0.7% to 8885.2 tons, and the number of available days of inventory for 64 steel mills increased by 5.0% to 21.0 days [4]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The coking coal futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week, and the spot price increased. There are still expectations of multiple rounds of price increases in the future. For coke, the spot price is in an upward trend, and the futures price premium provides hedging opportunities. It is recommended to conduct hedging operations at high prices, take profit on long positions, and carry out positive spread arbitrage operations for both coking coal and coke, while being vigilant about exchange intervention [6]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke products in different regions and contracts, such as Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and the 09 contract of coke, have increased. For example, the price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke increased by 4.3% to 1246 yuan/ton [6]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal products, including Shanxi warehouse - receipt coking coal and Mongolian coking coal warehouse - receipt, have also increased. For instance, the price of Shanxi warehouse - receipt coking coal increased by 4.5% to 1150 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.6% to 64.6 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1% to 47.2 tons. The output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased slightly [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1% to 242.2 tons, and the demand for coke is affected by the operation of steel mills [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 0.8% to 918.2 tons, the coking plant's coke inventory decreased by 8.5% to 80.1 tons, and the steel mill's coke inventory increased slightly. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased, while the coking coal inventory of coking plants and steel mills increased [6]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 10.2% to - 5.5 tons [6].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The rise of steel is mainly policy - driven. After the confirmation of the anti - involution expectation in the coal industry on the 22nd, it is expected that ferrous metals will continue to be strong. Considering the short - term fundamental contradictions are not significant and the market sentiment has not fully fermented, it is recommended to avoid short positions and hold long positions [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some steel products have changed. For example, the price of hot - rolled coil spot in East China increased by 20 yuan/ton, while the price of hot - rolled coil spot in South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The prices of different contracts of steel also showed fluctuations [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The costs of steel production processes such as steel billet, electric furnace, and converter have changed. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, while the profits of threaded steel in some regions increased [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 1.1%, the output of five major steel products decreased by 0.1%, and the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.1%. The inventory of some steel products such as threaded steel decreased, while the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 22.6%, the apparent demand for threaded steel increased by 5.0%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 2.6% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The 09 contract of iron ore showed a volatile downward trend. In the short - term, iron ore will oscillate. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions at high levels and adopt the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [4]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The prices of different types of iron ore and their spreads showed small fluctuations. For example, the price of PB powder increased by 0.3%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.0% [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased, the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased, and the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to decline slightly. The demand side shows high - level pig iron production, and the terminal demand is strong in the off - season [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills decreased, and the available days of inventory in 64 steel mills increased [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The coke futures rose strongly, and the spot market improved with multiple rounds of price increase expectations. The coking coal futures also rose strongly, and the spot market continued to rise. It is recommended to gradually reduce long positions of coke at high levels, adopt the strategy of going long on coke and short on iron ore for coke, and hold long positions of coking coal and gradually reduce them at high levels, and adopt the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore for coking coal [6]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The prices of coke and coking coal and their spreads changed. For example, the price of Shanxi first - class wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, and the price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) increased by 4.5% [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of coke was affected by factors such as slow coal mine复产 and corporate losses, and the demand increased due to the resumption of blast furnaces. The supply of coking coal was in short supply, and the demand increased due to the high - level pig iron production [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coke decreased in some links and increased in others, showing an overall medium - level state. The inventory of coking coal decreased significantly in mines, ports, and other places, and the inventory of downstream increased [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market is mainly influenced by domestic macro - policies. The release of the Politburo meeting announcement and the expiration of overseas tariff extension on August 12 are important time nodes. The supply - side policies of traditional industries are emerging, and the expectation of infrastructure driving economic growth is strengthened. The market sentiment is high, and it should be treated with a bullish mindset in the short term, but also beware of callback risks if the market accelerates [4] - For coking coal, the resumption of mining operations is less than expected, while downstream replenishment enthusiasm is high. The inventory is continuously transferred from mines to downstream. For coke, the second - round price increase has been implemented, and the third - round is expected to be implemented soon. The demand for coke is strong, and the overall supply - demand gap is widening [4] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The resumption of mining operations is less than expected. The operating rate of 523 mines is 86.07% (+0.55), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is 62.31% (-0.54). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.61% (+0.71) [2] Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The refined coal inventory of 523 mines is 339.07 million tons (-38.11), the refined coal inventory of coal washing plants is 191.54 million tons (-5.53), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 791.1 million tons (+8.17), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 790.19 million tons (+37.75), and the port inventory is 321.5 million tons (-0.14) [2] Spot Price and Spread - The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1029 yuan/ton (+0), the active contract price is 1198.5 yuan/ton (+63), the basis is - 149.5 yuan/ton (-63), and the 9 - 1 monthly spread is - 66 yuan/ton (-6) [1] Coke Supply and Demand - The demand has increased more than expected, and the supply - demand gap has widened. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.61% (+0.71), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.89% (+0.99), and the daily average pig iron output is 242.44 million tons (+2.63) [3] Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 55.55 million tons (-4.03), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 638.99 million tons (+1.19), and the port inventory is 199.11 million tons (-0.97) [3] Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1320 yuan/ton (+0), the active contract price is 1735 yuan/ton (+27.5), the basis is - 316 yuan/ton (-27.5), and the 9 - 1 monthly spread is - 50.5 yuan/ton (-15). The second - round price increase has been implemented, and the third - round is expected to be implemented soon [3] Strategy Recommendations - In general, take a bullish approach in the short term, but beware of callback risks if the market accelerates. For coking coal, the resumption of mining operations is less than expected, and downstream replenishment is active. For coke, the second - round price increase has been implemented, and the third - round is expected to be implemented soon. If steel prices continue to rise, the industrial chain profit is expected to be transmitted upstream [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market is mainly influenced by domestic macro - policies. The release of the Politburo meeting notice and the expiration of overseas tariff extension on August 12 are important time points. In the short - term, a bullish approach is recommended, but beware of callback risks if the market accelerates [5] - For coking coal, mine production recovery is slow, while downstream replenishment enthusiasm is high. Inventory is shifting from mines to downstream. For coke, the first round of price increase has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further increases. The overall supply - demand of coke is tight, and if steel prices continue to rise, industrial chain profits may be transmitted upstream [6] - The news of the National Energy Administration's verification of coal mine over - production has heated up the market. The market sentiment is positive, and the monthly spread has started to go into positive arbitrage, indicating a reversal of industrial expectations [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices have increased, and futures are rising rapidly. Mongolian 5 prime coking coal is reported at 1029 yuan/ton (+0), and the active contract is reported at 1135.5 yuan/ton (+87). The basis is - 86.5 yuan/ton (-87), and the September - January spread is - 60 yuan/ton (+28.5) [2] 3.1.2 Supply - Mine production recovery is below expectations. The operating rate of 523 mines is reported at 86.07% (+0.55), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 62.85% (+0.53) [2] 3.1.3 Demand - The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 72.9% (+0.18), showing flat demand [2] 3.1.4 Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 339.07 million tons (-38.11), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 191.54 million tons (-5.53), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 791.1 million tons (+8.17), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 790.19 million tons (+37.75), and the port inventory is 321.5 million tons (-0.14) [3] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices have increased, and futures are rising rapidly. The quasi - first - grade coke in Tianjin Port is reported at 1320 yuan/ton (+50), and the active contract is reported at 1707.5 yuan/ton (+10). The basis is - 288 yuan/ton (+43.76), and the September - January spread is - 35.5 yuan/ton (+19) [4] 3.2.2 Supply - The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 72.9% (+0.18), and supply recovery is limited due to high raw material costs and delayed price increases [4][6] 3.2.3 Demand - Demand has increased more than expected, and the supply - demand gap has widened. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 90.89% (+0.99), and the daily average pig iron output is 242.44 million tons (+2.63) [4] 3.2.4 Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 55.55 million tons (-4.03), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 638.99 million tons (+1.19), and the port inventory is 199.11 million tons (-0.97) [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for both coke and coking coal [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is currently dominated by the expectation of domestic supply - side policies. Before August 12th, the market is mainly focused on risk prevention. With the upcoming release of the steady - growth plan for ten key industries by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project, market sentiment has been boosted. In the short term, a bullish approach can be taken, but the risk of a callback should be watched [4]. - For coking coal, the mine output recovery is slow, while downstream replenishment enthusiasm is high. The inventory is shifting from mines to downstream. For coke, the first round of spot price increases has been implemented, and there are expectations for further increases. The supply - demand gap for coke is widening. If steel prices continue to rise, the industrial chain profits may be transmitted upstream [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Related News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that a steady - growth plan for ten key industries, including steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, is即将出台 [1]. - On July 19th, the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project officially started, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, six times that of the Three Gorges Project [1]. 3.2 Coking Coal 3.2.1 Price and Basis - The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is reported at 1,008 yuan/ton (+58). The active contract is reported at 1,006 yuan/ton (+80). The basis is 22 yuan/ton (-22), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 50 yuan/ton (-0.5) [1]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - The production recovery at the mine end is slower than expected, while demand remains flat. The operating rate of 523 mines is reported at 86.07% (+0.55), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 62.85% (+0.53). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 72.9% (+0.18) [2]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, while downstream inventory is increasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 339.07 million tons (-38.11), and the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 191.54 million tons (-5.53). The inventory of 247 steel mills is 791.1 million tons (+8.17), and the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 790.19 million tons (+37.75). The port inventory is 321.5 million tons (-0.14) [2]. 3.3 Coke 3.3.1 Price and Basis - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1,270 yuan/ton (+0), and the second - round spot price increase has started. The active contract is reported at 1,603 yuan/ton (+85). The basis is - 237 yuan/ton (-85), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 51 yuan/ton (-6) [3]. 3.3.2 Supply and Demand - Demand has increased more than expected, and the supply - demand gap has widened. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 72.9% (+0.18). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 90.89% (+0.99), and the daily average pig iron output is 242.44 million tons (+2.63) [3]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, while downstream inventory is increasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 55.55 million tons (-4.03), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 638.99 million tons (+1.19), and the port inventory is 199.11 million tons (-0.97) [3]. 3.4 Strategy Recommendations - In the short term, a bullish approach can be taken, but if the market accelerates, the risk of a callback should be watched. For J09 and JM09, it is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and re - enter the market on pullbacks [4][5].