在12月27日举行的"三亚·财经国际论坛暨第五届三亚财富管理大会"上，第十四届全国政协委员、中国 发展研究基金会理事长、国务院发展研究中心原副主任张军扩围绕"进一步抓好扩大内需这个战略基 点"，从宏观政策与制度安排的角度进行阐述。 （文章来源：证券日报） "需求问题成为影响我国经济持续稳定增长的最具决定性的因素。"张军扩说，今年以来，尽管面临诸多 外部冲击和挑战，我国经济总体上继续呈现较强韧性和平稳运行态势，一方面，主要宏观经济指标保持 平稳，为顺利实现全年5%左右的预期增长目标打下良好基础。另一方面，技术进步呈现不少新亮点， 高质量发展取得新进展。 关于投资，张军扩认为"需求空间仍然不小，也需要通过体制和政策创新来支持"。"十五五"期间充分释 放和扩大有效投资，有两个关键着力点，一是加快形成与新阶段相适应的城乡建设和房地产发展新模 式，二是要大力提振民间投资和外商投资。 "从当今世界范围来看，我国经济发展的优势或有利条件不仅是巨大的，而且是独特甚至独一无二的、 最好的。只要我们按照中央经济工作会议要求，坚持政策支持与改革创新并举，长短结合，标本兼治， 就一定能够推动经济进一步回升向好，并为实现2035年目标 ...

新京报贝壳财经讯（记者张晓翀）12月27日，中国发展研究基金会理事长、国务院发展研究中心原副主 任张军扩在三亚·财经国际论坛暨第五届三亚财富管理大会上表示，需求问题成为影响我国经济持续稳 定增长最具决定性的因素。"十五五"期间充分有效释放居民消费需求潜力需要标本兼治，更加突出结构 性对策。 编辑 段文平 校对 张彦君 他建议，逆周期性消费刺激政策，要在"总量不减、持续用力"的前提下，不断优化商品性消费的支持范 围和结构，并以更大力度支持服务性消费，特别是要按照"投资于人"的要求，针对群众急难愁盼的教 育、医疗、养老、生育等方面问题，通过加大补贴力度，提振消费意愿，增强消费能力。 ...

来源:金融界AI电报 "2025三亚·财经国际论坛暨第五届三亚财富管理大会"12月27日召开，第十四届全国政协委员、中国发 展研究基金会理事长、国务院发展研究中心原副主任张军扩发表演讲时表示，"十五五"充分有效释放居 民消费需求潜力需要标本兼治，更加突出结构性对策。一是逆周期性消费刺激政策，要在总量不减、持 续用力的前提下，不断优化商品性消费的支持范围和结构，并以更大力度支持服务性消费，特别是要按 照投资于人的要求，针对群众急难愁盼的教育、医疗、养老、生育等方面问题，通过加大补贴力度，提 振消费意愿，增强消费能力。二是要适应我国发展阶段和水平变化需要，以较大力度提高低收入人群的 社会保障和公共服务水平，有效提升我国居民的安全保障预期和消费信心。三是加大供给侧政策力度， 要通过减少准入限制、优化监管政策、加大国内标准、品牌、环境建设力度等举措，扩大优质服务供 给，特别是要针对国内急需而供给难以满足的服务消费领域，加大对内放开和对外开放力度，尽快通过 市场力量引入优质服务供给资源更好满足需求。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market faces insufficient demand, characterized by strong supply and weak demand, leading to price weakness. Effective release of consumer demand potential requires both short-term and long-term strategies to address structural issues [1][6]. Group 1: Demand and Consumption - Structural reasons for insufficient demand include a long-term low consumption rate, estimated to be 10% to 20% below potential. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for expanding domestic demand [2][7]. - The transition in consumer behavior from goods-oriented consumption to a balance of goods and services requires adjustments in economic structure and development methods, necessitating both government and market involvement [1][6]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - To stimulate consumption, policies should focus on counter-cyclical measures that optimize the support structure for goods consumption while enhancing support for service consumption. This includes increasing subsidies for education, healthcare, and other essential services to boost consumer willingness and capacity [3][8]. - Implementing a plan to increase residents' income and improving social security for low-income groups are crucial for enhancing consumer confidence and security [3][8]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - There remains significant potential for investment, which should be supported by systemic and policy innovations. While consumer demand is essential for economic growth, investment should not be neglected [4][9]. - Key areas for investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" include developing new urban and real estate models and boosting private and foreign investment through improved business environments and regulatory reforms [4][9].

Group 1 - The potential of domestic demand in China is significant, and the key is to effectively release it through targeted policies [1] - Three main policy areas are suggested to stimulate consumer demand: implementing counter-cyclical consumption stimulus policies, enhancing social security and public services for low-income groups, and increasing supply-side policies to expand quality service offerings [1][2] - Effective investment should be prioritized alongside consumer demand, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate market and promoting investment in traditional industries, strategic emerging industries, and infrastructure projects [2] Group 2 - Policies to stabilize expectations and invigorate private enterprises are essential, including the implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law and reducing administrative discretion to enhance business confidence [3] - There is a need for better alignment and coordination between non-economic policies and macroeconomic policies to avoid disruptions caused by formalism or excessive regulations [3]

Group 1 - The potential for domestic demand in China is significant, and effective policies are needed to release it [1] - Three policy areas are suggested to stimulate consumption: counter-cyclical consumption stimulus, improving social security for low-income groups, and enhancing supply-side policies [1][2] - Emphasis on supporting service consumption, particularly in education, healthcare, elderly care, and childbirth, through increased government subsidies [1] Group 2 - Investment demand remains substantial and requires institutional and policy innovation to support it [2] - Key to stabilizing effective investment is to achieve a recovery in the real estate market, which involves resolving structural contradictions and restoring market confidence [2] - Significant investment potential exists in traditional industry upgrades, strategic emerging industries, and infrastructure projects such as urban renewal and major safety engineering [2] Group 3 - Policies to stabilize expectations and invigorate private enterprises need to be effectively implemented [3] - The introduction of the Private Economy Promotion Law should be accompanied by clear implementation guidelines and reduced discretionary power in enforcement [3] - There is a need to enhance the consistency and coordination between non-economic policies and macroeconomic policies to avoid disruptions in economic activities [3]