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释放消费需求潜力
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张军扩:扩内需的三点思考
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-27 14:33
Core Viewpoint - The demand issue has become the most decisive factor affecting the sustained and stable growth of China's economy, with expanding domestic demand ranking first in economic work for two consecutive years [2][3]. Group 1: Demand Issues - The main contradiction in China's economic operation has gradually shifted from the supply side to the demand side, indicating that resolving demand issues is crucial for achieving stable and sustainable economic growth [3]. - Despite various external shocks, China's economy has shown resilience, with major macroeconomic indicators remaining stable, laying a good foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [2][3]. Group 2: Consumption Demand - The insufficient consumption demand in China is attributed to both short-term market fluctuations and deeper structural issues, necessitating both immediate stimulus policies and long-term solutions [4]. - Structural reasons for low consumption rates include a long-term low consumption rate among residents, estimated to be 10-20% below the international average, indicating significant potential for expanding domestic demand [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Demand - Investment demand remains significant and should be supported through institutional and policy innovations, emphasizing that effective investment is still crucial for economic growth [8]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests that effective investment should focus on new urban construction models and enhancing rural infrastructure, with a notable emphasis on revitalizing idle rural land and improving the investment environment for private and foreign investments [8].
张军扩:持续有效释放消费需求潜力要长短兼顾、标本兼治
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-27 02:33
Core Viewpoint - The current market faces insufficient demand, characterized by strong supply and weak demand, leading to price weakness. Effective release of consumer demand potential requires both short-term and long-term strategies to address structural issues [1][6]. Group 1: Demand and Consumption - Structural reasons for insufficient demand include a long-term low consumption rate, estimated to be 10% to 20% below potential. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for expanding domestic demand [2][7]. - The transition of consumer behavior from goods-oriented to a balance of goods and services consumption necessitates a dual approach to stimulate demand and optimize economic structure [1][6]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - Implement counter-cyclical consumption demand stimulus policies that optimize the support structure for goods consumption while increasing support for service consumption. This includes addressing urgent public needs in education, healthcare, and social security to enhance consumer willingness and capacity [3][8]. - Effectively execute a plan to increase residents' income and improve social security and public service levels for low-income groups, thereby boosting consumer confidence and security expectations [3][8]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - There remains significant potential for investment, which should be supported through institutional and policy innovations. While consumer demand is crucial for economic growth, investment should not be neglected [4][9]. - Key focus areas for expanding effective investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" include developing new urban and real estate models and boosting private and foreign investment through improved business environments and reforms [4][9].