Core Viewpoint - The traditional forklift industry is maturing, and the focus is shifting towards intelligent products, particularly unmanned forklifts, which are expected to drive structural opportunities in the sector due to reasonable costs, continuous technological upgrades, and expanding applications [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The sales of unmanned forklifts in China increased from 300 units in 2015 to 19,500 units in 2023, with a CAGR of 68.51%, indicating significant growth potential despite a current penetration rate of only 1.66% in the traditional forklift market [2] - The economic benefits of unmanned forklifts are highlighted by a price drop from 600,000 yuan per unit in 2018 to 220,000 yuan in 2023, with a payback period of 1 to 3 years and a lifespan of at least 15 years, showcasing their total cost of ownership advantages [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The integration of SLAM natural navigation and 5G+MEC edge computing has enhanced the intelligence and operational capabilities of unmanned forklifts, with AMR (SLAM) accounting for 75% of the market share in 2023 [3] - Future developments are expected to lead unmanned forklifts towards full flexible operational capabilities and comprehensive coverage across various industrial scenarios [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Key players in the unmanned forklift industry include traditional forklift leaders like Anhui Heli and Hangcha Group, as well as AGV/AMR leaders like Hikvision and Geek+; the market is relatively fragmented with only 11 companies exceeding 100 million yuan in scale [4] - The business models differ between traditional forklift companies, which focus on product sales, and AGV/AMR companies, which emphasize intelligent logistics solutions, impacting their asset structures and cash flow cycles [4][5] Group 4: Market Applications - The warehousing and logistics sector is currently the primary application area for unmanned forklifts due to its standardization and scalability, while industrial manufacturing presents greater challenges but also larger market opportunities [6] - International markets offer better commercial logic and higher profit margins for unmanned forklifts, with companies like Geek+ expected to achieve a gross margin of 46.5% overseas in 2024, highlighting the importance of global expansion for competitive advantage [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the industry, highlighting the potential for significant growth in the adoption of unmanned forklifts as part of the smart logistics trend [6]. Core Insights - The rise of SLAM natural navigation technology is driving the transition from simple automation to autonomous intelligence in on-site logistics, with unmanned forklifts representing a leading product in this commercial evolution [1][2]. - The penetration rate of unmanned forklifts in traditional forklift markets is currently low at 1.66%, indicating substantial room for growth and replacement opportunities [2][42]. - The industry is characterized by a diverse competitive landscape, with major players including traditional forklift manufacturers and AGV/AMR companies, leading to a relatively fragmented market [2][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Current Development of Unmanned Forklifts - Unmanned forklifts are a fusion of forklift and AGV technologies, evolving from basic automated guided vehicles to more intelligent autonomous mobile robots (AMR) [1][13]. - The industry has a rich history of over 70 years, with significant advancements in navigation technology since 2010 [1][27]. 2. Factors Driving Penetration of Unmanned Forklifts - Economic benefits, technological advancements, and supportive policies are the three main drivers for the rapid increase in the penetration rate of unmanned forklifts [2][50]. - The sales volume of unmanned forklifts in China surged from 300 units in 2015 to 19,500 units in 2023, with a CAGR of 68.51% [2][38]. 3. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape features both traditional forklift companies and AGV/AMR firms, with a market concentration that remains relatively low [2][6]. - Key players include Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, and Zhongli Group among traditional manufacturers, and Hikvision Robotics and Xian Gong Intelligent among AGV/AMR leaders [2][6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on traditional forklift leaders and emerging AGV/AMR companies as potential investment opportunities, given the expected rise in unmanned forklift adoption [6][2].