本文约 3 5 0 0 字，推荐阅读时长 1 0 分钟，欢迎关注新财富公众号。 成本扣到分的物流行业对无人化的需求最大 2025年上半年我国社会物流总费用与GDP的比率为14%，较2024年同期下降0.2个百分点，节约物流费用约1300亿元。根据政策目标2027年将比率降至 13.5%左右。尽管从2006年正式建立统计以来，目前已经是最低水平，但是与发达国家7%-9%的比率相比，我国物流费用还有比较大的优化空间。 卡车的L4级别自动驾驶与卡车最大的拥有者，卡车司机的利益相悖，国内70%卡车运力是个人，对个人来说，自身的体力劳动成本趋近于0，这也是个体 户比运营公司成本占优的主要原因。无人化无疑是革了卡车司机的命，而运营公司本身成本就比不过个体，自然也不愿意在无人化上投入更多成本冒 险。 万亿规模的物流快递行业，对于新技术带来的降本增效布局都会非常积极，每年在运输方面花费的成本高达千亿，面对激烈的竞争，单票快递的成本往 往要计算到分以下，而作为50%以上人力成本占比的行业，无人化的降本潜力巨大。 推动物流领域无人化、自动化是降本增效的关键手段，无人车和移动机器人技术是智慧物流领域战略的重要组成部分。无人车包括低 ...

智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，随着物流自动化需求激增，无人叉车正成为叉车行业第三阶 段(无人化)的核心载体。中国无人叉车2024年渗透率仅为2%，但2019-2024年销量复合增长率达55%， 预计未来无人叉车替代有人叉车空间大。2023年我国销售额过亿元企业占8%;叉车企业、AGV/AMR企 业、系统集成企业为主要参与方。重点推荐：杭叉集团(603298.SH)、安徽合力(600761.SH)、中力股 份。关注：极智嘉-W(02590)、诺力股份(603611.SH)、兰剑智能(688557.SH)、东杰智能(300486.SZ)等。 浙商证券主要观点如下： 无人叉车(移动机器人)：无人搬运、无人装卸定义物料搬运新模式 无人叉车：叉车行业下一站。叉车行业第一站为燃油化，第二站为电动化，下一站为无人化。2025年7 月1日，亚马逊公司的亚马逊机器人全球机器人总量已部署超100万台。无人叉车为移动机器人品种之 一，2023年在移动机器人销售中占比达16%，主要应用于制造业、仓储物流等的室外转运、外月台装 卸、室内转运、室内存取等环节。无人搬运、无人装卸有望成为叉车行业未来发展趋势之一。 无人叉车经济性 ...

行业评级：看好 证券研究报告 无人叉车（移动机器人）：AI应用 最佳场景之一，将迎来爆发式增长 ——无人叉车行业深度报告 2025年8月22日 分析师 邱世梁 分析师 王华君 分析师 何家恺 研究助理 徐琛奇 邮箱 qiushiliang@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 wanghuajun@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 hejiakai@stocke.com.cn 研究助理 蒋逸 证书编号 S1230520050001 证书编号 S1230520080005 证书编号 S1230523080007 无人叉车（移动机器人）：AI应用最佳场景之一，将迎来爆发式增长 1、无人叉车（移动机器人）：无人搬运、无人装卸定义物料搬运新模式 3、竞争格局：2023年我国销售额过亿元企业占8%；叉车企业、AGV/AMR企业、系统集成企业为主要参与方 风险提示：市场渗透不及预期；技术迭代不及预期；海外贸易摩擦风险。 2 • 无人叉车：叉车行业下一站。叉车行业第一站为燃油化，第二站为电动化，下一站为无人化。2025年7月1日，亚马逊公司的亚马逊机器人全 球机器人总量已部署超100万台。无人叉车为移动机器人品种之一，2023 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the machinery equipment sector [1]. Core Insights - The logistics and warehousing industry is undergoing a transformation driven by AI and robotics, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs [5][14]. - The global market for warehouse automation solutions is projected to exceed 2 trillion RMB, with a market size of 471.1 billion RMB in 2024, expected to grow to 804 billion RMB by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 4.8% [15][19]. - The penetration rate of global warehouse automation solutions is anticipated to increase significantly, with major companies like Toyota and Kion Group reporting substantial growth in orders [16][19]. Summary by Sections Core Viewpoints - Intelligent warehousing optimizes inventory management and enhances operational efficiency, addressing supply chain pain points [19]. - AI and robotics are expected to facilitate the transition from manual to automated processes in logistics, enabling full-process automation [14][19]. - The report highlights the importance of software and mobile robots as the core components of intelligent warehousing systems [35]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that approximately 80% of warehouses globally have yet to adopt automation solutions, indicating a vast potential market [15]. - The Chinese market for intelligent on-site logistics solutions is projected to grow from 101.3 billion RMB in 2024 to 201 billion RMB by 2029, with a CAGR of 14.7% [15][19]. - The report emphasizes the need for companies to adapt their solutions to various industry characteristics to meet specific demands [26]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends companies with strong R&D, manufacturing, and distribution capabilities as key players in the AI-driven logistics landscape [18]. - Specific companies highlighted include Geek+ and Kion Group, which are positioned to benefit from the growing demand for automated solutions [7][15]. - The report also mentions the strategic collaborations and acquisitions by companies like Hangcha Group and Anhui Heli to enhance their technological capabilities [7][19].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 20.555 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.43%, demonstrating resilience amid industry challenges [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's express delivery revenue reached 18.613 billion yuan, marking an increase of 11.89% year-on-year, indicating a steady rise in market share [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The logistics industry faces persistent high costs due to issues such as high operational costs across the supply chain, low resource allocation efficiency, and inefficient circulation [1] - The industry is focusing on "cost reduction, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement" as key challenges [1] Group 3: Technological Innovation - The company is committed to a technology-driven strategy, investing in automation and intelligent systems across all logistics processes to reduce costs and improve efficiency [2] - Collaboration with Mu Yi Robotics has led to the promotion of advanced equipment like unmanned forklifts, with 46 automated equipment sites established [2] - The introduction of intelligent driving systems for vehicles operating in the 800-1200 km range has transitioned from dual drivers to single drivers, significantly reducing costs for over 30,000 end vehicles [2] Group 4: Economic Impact - The logistics sector plays a crucial role in connecting production and consumption, and cost reduction in this area has a significant leverage effect, contributing to high-quality economic development [2] - The company’s long-term investment in technology and proactive engagement with cutting-edge developments positions it as a model for integrating advanced technology with logistics operations [2]

Core Insights - The global smart logistics market is expected to exceed 500 billion yuan by 2025, with mobile automation equipment showing the fastest growth, approaching 150 billion yuan, indicating significant development potential [1][2] Market Exploration - Smart logistics integrates "hardware + software" into an automated supply chain system, enhancing logistics efficiency, involving core equipment such as AGV/AMR and unmanned forklifts [2] - The global warehouse automation solutions market is projected to exceed 500 billion yuan by 2025, with the Asia-Pacific market experiencing the highest growth; China's smart logistics market is estimated to be around 120 billion yuan [2] - Mobile automation equipment is expected to grow the fastest, with a market size nearing 150 billion yuan, driven by advancements in AI and low current penetration rates [2] - The cost advantages of unmanned forklifts are highlighted, with payback periods of 2.5 years, 1.1 years, and 0.7 years for different operational shifts, while traditional forklifts have a lifespan of 8-10 years [2] Industry Chain Analysis - Key technologies for mobile robots include navigation and positioning, perception and obstacle avoidance, and planning and control [3] - Automation-related components, particularly sensors and controllers, represent the main incremental costs, with SLAM products dominating the market at approximately 75% share [3] - The controller, regarded as the "brain" of mobile robots, has a high technical barrier and is a high-margin segment within the supply chain [3] Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong capabilities in hardware, software, and scenario mastery are favored, as innovative products are expected to generate revolutionary demand [4] - Firms with strong product innovation capabilities are likely to capture a larger market share, particularly in overseas markets where profit margins are higher [4]

Domestic Financial Market - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3639.67, with a slight increase of 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.18% to 11157.94 [3][8] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.83 trillion, an increase of 914 billion compared to the previous trading day [8] Macro News Summary - Standard & Poor's maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" with a stable outlook, which was acknowledged by the Ministry of Finance [5] - The General Administration of Customs reported a 3.5% year-on-year increase in China's goods trade import and export for the first seven months of the year, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [5] Industry Dynamics - The eSIM industry is experiencing explosive growth, reshaping the communication ecosystem, with related stocks including Unisoc (002049) and Cheng Tian Wei Ye (300689) [6] - High-end PCB supply and demand are tightening, leading to accelerated production expansion by listed companies, with related stocks including Dazhu Laser (002008) and Dongshan Precision (002384) [6] - Significant transactions are occurring in the AI pharmaceutical sector, attracting attention to high-growth concept stocks such as Tigermed (300347) and Mediso (688202) [6] Company Focus - Tower Group (002233) reported a 92.47% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 and plans to repurchase shares worth 50 million to 100 million [7] - BeiGene (688235) achieved a net profit of 450 million, turning a profit compared to the previous year, with projected revenue for 2025 between 35.8 billion and 38.1 billion RMB [7] - Tongyu Communication (002792) has successfully scaled MacroWiFi testing and commercial deployment in Southeast Asia, providing reliable outdoor digital communication infrastructure for operators and enterprises [7] - Zhongke Chuangda (300496) focuses on robotics products for factory and warehouse logistics, including various AMR and unmanned forklift products [7] Market Review and Outlook - The market showed a slight upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new rebound high of 3645 points, although over 3000 stocks declined, indicating a relatively flat market sentiment [8][9] - Despite the overall rebound trend, there are signs of divergence within the market, suggesting a potential need for a digestion and repair process in the short term [8][9] - For conservative investors, it is recommended to continue holding positions and consider allocating to broad-based index ETFs or industry ETFs [9]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference discusses the evolution of Automated Guided Vehicles (AGV) to Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMR), highlighting advancements in navigation technologies such as visual navigation and SLAM laser navigation, which enhance autonomous obstacle avoidance and mobility [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Demand**: The domestic intelligent logistics equipment market has broad demand, with major clients in the automotive, photovoltaic, lithium battery, 3C, and logistics sectors. The automotive industry faces rising labor costs and customization needs, while the photovoltaic sector is challenged by complex environments and high handling intensity [1][6][8]. - **Impact of COVID-19**: The pandemic has significantly affected AGV demand across various industries. The photovoltaic sector has entered a downturn, while the automotive industry has faced negative impacts. Conversely, the pharmaceutical, semiconductor, 3C, and logistics sectors have shown positive growth [9]. - **Future Projections**: The automotive industry is expected to recover by 2026, while the photovoltaic sector's fluctuations remain unpredictable. There is substantial potential for warehouse automation transformation, promoting the "goods-to-person" model to reduce costs and improve efficiency [1][10]. Pricing and Product Types - **Product Categories**: The main types of mobile robots include: 1. **Lurking Robots**: Priced between 80,000 to 150,000 CNY, suitable for logistics transfer [5]. 2. **Transfer and Heavy Load Robots**: Prices range from 120,000 to 250,000 CNY, depending on load capacity and customization [5]. 3. **Unmanned Forklifts**: Prices vary based on design complexity and lifting height [3][4]. 4. **Composite Robots**: These are the most expensive due to their integrated functionalities [4]. Industry Applications - **Sector-Specific Needs**: - **Automotive**: Solutions address labor cost increases and safety production requirements, covering various production processes [6]. - **Photovoltaic**: AGVs are designed for automatic docking and complex handling due to high environmental demands [8]. - **Lithium Battery**: Solutions focus on labor shortages and material traceability [8]. - **3C Industry**: High SKU variety necessitates efficient management through WMS systems [8]. - **Logistics**: Demand fluctuates significantly during peak periods, requiring scalable solutions [8]. Competitive Landscape - **Market Dynamics**: The domestic market is characterized by a mix of system integrators, equipment manufacturers, software developers, and platform companies. Key players include Hikvision, New Times, and others, each focusing on specific industry applications [18][19]. - **Overseas Expansion**: The overseas market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating that overseas profitability may surpass domestic by 2025 [21]. Profitability and Cost Management - **Profitability Factors**: The profitability of AGV and solutions businesses is influenced by revenue and cost control. Automation in e-commerce logistics can enhance operational efficiency and reduce labor costs [12]. - **Investment Recovery**: The investment payback period in the Ada industry has shortened to approximately 1.2 to 1.5 years [13]. Future Trends - **Technological Advancements**: The integration of AI and robotics in logistics solutions is anticipated to drive growth, with ongoing improvements in load calculations and software algorithms [24]. - **Challenges for Forklift AGVs**: The lower sales and penetration rates of fork-type AGVs are attributed to limited application scenarios and compatibility issues with different pallet types [22][23]. Conclusion - The intelligent logistics equipment market is poised for growth, driven by technological advancements and increasing demand across various sectors. Companies are focusing on enhancing their offerings and expanding into overseas markets to capitalize on emerging opportunities.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth potential and application of autonomous forklifts, emphasizing their integration with existing forklift technology and the increasing demand in logistics and manufacturing sectors [2][5][6]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The robotics industry is evolving along two main paths: vertical development focusing on humanoid robots for industrial and consumer applications, and horizontal development targeting specific applications to enhance efficiency through automation [2]. - In the logistics sector, companies like Amazon have deployed a significant number of robots, optimizing operations and reducing movement time by 10% [3]. Group 2: Market Data - Global forklift sales are projected to reach 2.14 million units in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, and China is expected to account for half of this volume [5]. - In 2023, global sales of autonomous forklifts reached approximately 30,700 units, marking a 46% increase year-on-year, with China leading the market at 19,500 units sold, a 47% increase [10]. Group 3: Technology and Cost - The cost of autonomous forklifts has significantly decreased from 600,000 RMB to around 200,000 RMB per unit since 2018, making them more competitive against traditional electric forklifts [13]. - The integration of advanced navigation and control technologies has enhanced the operational capabilities of autonomous forklifts, allowing for greater efficiency in indoor logistics [12]. Group 4: Company Performance - Toyota Industries reported a decline in forklift sales for FY2025 but expects net sales to grow by 7.7% due to price increases and favorable exchange rates [20]. - Hyster-Yale's Q1 2025 revenue fell by 14% year-on-year, primarily due to a weak European market, while KION Group saw a significant increase in order volume, indicating strong demand in the industrial vehicle sector [22][25]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The forklift industry is anticipated to experience a recovery starting in 2025, driven by growth in emerging markets, while the North American and European markets remain relatively weak [27].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of AI technology and the maturation of supply chains are expected to accelerate the development of unmanned forklifts, with traditional forklift companies poised to seize this opportunity due to their stable operational quality and high channel reuse [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Recommendations - The generalization of AI technology enhances the flexible working capabilities of automated equipment, making unmanned forklifts economically viable and likely to enter a rapid growth phase. Traditional forklift companies with stable operations and strong channel reuse are recommended for investment [2]. - The unmanned forklift, which integrates forklift and AGV technologies, has a penetration rate of less than 2% compared to traditional forklifts. However, the overall maturation of the supply chain and decreasing sales prices are expected to improve the economic viability of unmanned forklifts within a year [2]. - The advancement of unmanned driving and embodied intelligence technologies is anticipated to lower the purchase threshold for customers, particularly small and medium-sized B-end clients, facilitating faster market penetration for "plug-and-play" unmanned forklifts [2]. Group 2: Competitive Advantages of Traditional Forklift Companies - Traditional forklift companies are expected to stand out in the current wave of intelligent development represented by unmanned forklifts. These companies have healthy operational quality and a solid economic foundation for developing or acquiring unmanned forklift technologies [3]. - The decentralized demand from downstream customers allows leading traditional forklift companies to establish comprehensive sales networks both domestically and internationally, which is beneficial for the rapid promotion of unmanned forklift businesses [3]. - The shift towards unmanned operations presents an opportunity for traditional forklift companies to enhance profitability and increase global recognition, similar to the impact of lithium battery forklifts [3]. Group 3: Differentiation Among Domestic Forklift Leaders - Domestic forklift leaders such as Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, and Zhongli Co. are focusing on different aspects of unmanned forklift development, leading to product, customer, and market selection differentiation [4]. - Anhui Heli emphasizes collaboration with industry partners, particularly with Huawei, to accelerate the development of embodied intelligence, potentially leading in technological strength [4]. - Hangcha Group, as an early developer of AGV technology, is enhancing AI and humanoid robot capabilities through acquisitions and is establishing localized supply capabilities overseas, indicating a faster international expansion [4]. - Zhongli Co., as a new entrant in the industry, aims to create an unmanned forklift ecosystem through investments in startups, focusing on concepts like "cargo digitization" and "AI scheduling" to explore differentiated market opportunities [4].