安徽合力 Q&A 摘要 安徽合力出口业务稳健增长，欧洲市场恢复明显，1-8 月营收增长约 18%，三季度加速。北美市场受贸易战影响接近尾声，预计明年或下半 年需求恢复。亚洲（除中国）市场增速超 15%，南美增速超 70%。 国内市场稳健恢复，结构性向好，大动力车、锂电车替代内燃车。智能 物流方面，预计今年营收达 9-10 亿元，同比增长超 50%。 公司与江淮前沿创新中心合作成立实验室，开发工业端具身智能机器人， 包括人形、类人形产品，应用于拣选、搬运、装配等场景，计划成立合 资公司落地项目。 智能物流系统以国内市场为主，占比超 90%，毛利率约 24%-25%，软 件占 20%，硬件占 80%，无人叉车约占 40%。海外市场是未来重要增 长空间。 海外智能物流系统仍处于自动化阶段。公司将扎实渠道建设，形成大客 户突破，与央企合作打通标杆客户，实现出海战略。欧美和亚洲订单预 计很快落地。 新能源车型（一类车）增长最快，月平均增速 30%-40%，用户认知度 高，市场占有率迅速提升，预计将逐步替代内燃车型一半以上份额。 针对美国关税，公司采取涨价策略，转嫁给代理商。计划 2026 年在泰 国工厂投产，支撑美国市 ...

Summary of Forklift Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The forklift industry is experiencing a significant growth trend in the unmanned forklift segment, with leading companies like Hangcha and Heli actively investing in this area and collaborating with technology firms such as Jiushi Intelligent and Xidi Zhijia to develop relevant technologies [1][3][5] - The global market for forklifts is showing a demand split, with retail, e-commerce, and logistics accounting for approximately 50% of the market share. Domestic sales are recovering due to policy-driven demand for upgrades, while exports continue to grow steadily [1][6] Key Insights - The unmanned forklift segment is expected to see substantial growth in the second half of 2025, with a low penetration rate currently but significant potential for expansion. The year 2025 is referred to as the "Year of Unmanned Forklifts" [3][9] - Lithium battery-driven large forklifts have seen sales growth exceeding 40%, with the lithium battery penetration rate for large models rising to over 30% since 2018. The trend of lithium battery replacing internal combustion engines is expected to continue [1][7] - The unmanned forklift industry is characterized by low penetration and high growth, driven by technological advancements such as laser navigation and machine vision, as well as economic benefits [3][12] Company Developments - Hangcha has made significant progress in unmanned technology, owning Guozhi Robotics and collaborating with Huawei to develop intelligent solutions. Heli is also partnering with various tech companies to advance unmanned technology [5][19] - Both companies are expected to be among the first to achieve mass production of robots, supported by favorable policies [5][20] Market Dynamics - The demand for traditional and lithium battery-driven electric forklifts is showing clear differentiation, with a notable recovery in domestic sales driven by policy support [6][19] - The average price of AGVs has decreased significantly from 600,000 yuan in 2018 to 220,000 yuan in 2023, while the average price of unmanned forklifts remains lower than that of AGVs, indicating a potential for cost reduction and margin improvement [13] Future Outlook - The development of unmanned mining trucks and unmanned logistics vehicles presents vast opportunities, with these devices capable of performing complex tasks in industrial settings [8] - The industry is expected to see a market opportunity worth hundreds of billions, providing a chance for valuation re-evaluation for related companies [8][20] Financial Performance - Heli is projected to achieve a performance of 1.6 billion yuan next year, corresponding to a 12x valuation, while Hangcha is expected to reach 2.5 billion yuan, corresponding to a 15x valuation. Both companies have significant growth potential, with estimates suggesting a 50% increase in market value [19][20] Conclusion - The unmanned forklift segment is poised for rapid growth, driven by technological advancements and favorable market conditions. Companies like Hangcha and Heli are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, with strong potential for valuation increases and market share expansion [20][21]

Group 1: Unmanned Forklifts Industry - Unmanned forklifts are driving a transformation in logistics through technological evolution from AGV to AMR, with significant price reductions expected due to the maturity of the supply chain and the rise of domestic components [1] - The demand for unmanned forklifts is expanding, with shipments in China increasing from 2,700 units in 2019 (penetration rate of 0.44%) to 19,500 units in 2023 (1.66%), and projected to reach 39,000 units by 2025 (3.17%) [1] - The Chinese market for unmanned forklifts is valued at $2.385 billion in 2023, accounting for 45% of the global market, with Asia's overall share at 47%, positioning China as a core growth driver [1] - Key players in the industry include Linde (China), Hangcha Intelligent, Toyota Material Handling, and Geek+, with the latter achieving the highest global market share in warehouse robots in 2021 [1] Group 2: Zhongxing Communications - Zhongxing Communications reported nearly 100% year-on-year growth in revenue from its second curve, driven by computing power and terminal products, which now account for over 35% of total revenue [4] - The company's server and storage revenue grew by over 200%, with AI servers making up 55% of this segment [4] - Zhongxing has secured the largest share in the recent bidding for AI general computing devices from China Mobile, showcasing its strong market position [4] - The company is enhancing its self-developed switching chip capabilities, progressing from 12.8T to 51.2T in forwarding capacity, indicating ongoing technological advancements [4] - The evolution of AI technology and its applications is expected to boost the construction of intelligent computing centers and increase business volume at the consumer end, driving growth in the ICT industry over the next 3-5 years [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - In the second week of September, major indices in the A-share market rose again, with the CSI 100 and CSI 500 indices increasing by 4.45% and 6.33% respectively, while the Shenzhen Component Index rebounded by 2.36% [1] - Southbound capital inflow exceeded 55 billion yuan in the second week of September [1] - The central bank's net fund injection was 196.1 billion yuan last week, maintaining ample liquidity with the DR007 rate staying below 1.48% [2] Group 2: Commodity and Currency Trends - In the second week of September, non-ferrous metals rebounded, crude oil prices increased, precious metals saw a slight rebound, while black metals declined and pork prices experienced a minor increase [2] - The US dollar index fell to 97.62, down 0.12% week-on-week, while the Chinese yuan appreciated slightly to 7.12, with a weekly increase of 0.04% [2] Group 3: Agricultural Bank Insights - Agricultural Bank is expected to benefit from the release of county-level economic potential and deep layout in these regions, leading to greater credit growth compared to peers [4] - The bank has the highest proportion of personal demand deposits among comparable peers, resulting in lower deposit costs and stronger interest margin resilience [4] - Agricultural Bank maintains the lowest non-performing loan ratio among peers, with manageable risks in real estate-related businesses [4] - The bank's high provisioning strengthens its risk absorption and profit reinvestment capabilities, leading to a positive outlook for valuation enhancement [4] Group 4: Unmanned Forklift Industry - The evolution from AGV to AMR technology is driving a transformation in logistics automation, with average prices decreasing significantly due to supply chain maturity and the rise of domestic components [7] - The market for unmanned forklifts in China is projected to grow from 2,700 units in 2019 (0.44% penetration) to 19,500 units in 2023 (1.66% penetration), and is expected to reach 39,000 units by 2025 (3.17% penetration) [7] - The Chinese market size for unmanned forklifts is estimated at $2.385 billion in 2023, accounting for 45% of the global market, with Asia representing 47% [7] - Major companies, including Linde and Geek+, are driving industry upgrades, with Geek+ achieving the highest market share in global warehouse robotics [7]

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of Shugen Technology from industrial internet to industrial intelligence, emphasizing the significant role of artificial intelligence in this transition [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Overview - Shugen Technology has been recognized as a "cross-industry and cross-field industrial internet platform" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology for six consecutive years from 2019 to 2024, establishing itself as a unicorn in China's industrial internet sector [1][2] - In 2023, Shugen Technology successfully expanded internationally, achieving its first overseas single order exceeding 100 million yuan [1][2] Group 2: Industrial Intelligence Transition - The company is rapidly upgrading towards industrial intelligence, with AI expected to revolutionize industrial production, particularly through innovations like intelligent welding robots, which could become a new industry worth hundreds of billions [1][2][5] - Shugen Technology's Vice Chairman described the previous state as a "bottleneck," where digitalization improved efficiency but did not lead to transformative changes, indicating a need for breakthroughs [2][4] Group 3: Market Demand and Challenges - The demand for industrial intelligence is driven by practical needs in industrial scenarios, such as the aging workforce in forklift operations and welding, where there is a significant shortage of skilled workers [4][5] - Despite advancements like unmanned forklifts and fixed welding robots, their application remains limited, with unmanned forklift sales projected to reach 24,500 units in 2024, reflecting only a 1.9% market penetration [4] Group 4: Technological Innovations - Shugen Technology is collaborating with companies like SANY Robotics and China COSCO Shipping Group to develop unmanned forklifts that integrate electric and intelligent technologies, capable of stacking heavy goods [5][8] - The company is also advancing intelligent welding technology, aiming to enhance real-time adjustments during the welding process, which could lead to a new industry worth hundreds of billions [5][8] Group 5: Data Utilization and Strategy - The company emphasizes the importance of industrial professional data for the development of intelligent robots, with its platform, GenCloud, connecting 2.5 million high-value industrial devices to accumulate valuable data [9][10] - Shugen Technology's strategy involves a "two-step" approach: first, integrating physical and intelligent aspects through industrial robots, and second, reshaping operations and organization with an "enterprise brain" to optimize the entire production chain [9][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that unmanned forklifts have become essential equipment in smart logistics, with applications across various scenarios such as production line delivery, warehousing, and port operations, leading to a significant expansion in demand and technological upgrades in the industry [1][3] - The market for unmanned forklifts is expected to grow from 2,700 units in 2019 (penetration rate of 0.44%) to 19,500 units in 2023 (1.66%), and is projected to reach 39,000 units by 2025 (3.17%) [3] - The global market size for unmanned forklifts in China is estimated at $2.385 billion in 2023, accounting for 45% of the global market, with Asia's overall share at 47% [3] Group 2 - The transition from AGV (Automated Guided Vehicle) to AMR (Autonomous Mobile Robot) is driven by technological advancements, with AMR offering higher efficiency and shorter payback periods in smart warehousing [2] - The industry is influenced by four main factors: diminishing demographic dividends, rising labor costs, policy support for smart upgrades, and technological advancements enhancing efficiency and safety [3] - The control systems for unmanned forklifts are evolving towards a dual architecture of local controllers and cloud-based scheduling platforms, with the global robotics control system market projected to reach approximately 80 billion yuan by 2024 [4] Group 3 - Key players in the unmanned forklift industry include Linde (China), Hangcha Intelligent, Toyota Material Handling, and Geek+, with the latter achieving the highest market share in global warehouse robots by 2021 [4] - The industry is experiencing rapid maturation driven by both global leaders and emerging local companies, indicating a competitive landscape [4]

Core Insights - The integration of traditional forklifts and AGV technology has made unmanned forklifts a core component of smart logistics, driven by technological advancements and cost reductions in components [1][3] - The market for unmanned forklifts is experiencing rapid growth, with significant increases in shipment volumes and market size projected for the coming years [3][4] Group 1: Technological Evolution - Unmanned forklifts combine traditional forklift and AGV technologies, offering advantages such as automatic navigation, obstacle avoidance, and path planning, which reduce labor costs and safety risks [1] - The evolution of unmanned forklifts has progressed from retrofitting traditional forklifts to specialized designs and new autonomous forms [1][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for unmanned forklifts is driven by factors such as rising labor costs, policy support for automation, and advancements in technology that enhance efficiency and safety [3] - The Chinese market for unmanned forklifts is expected to grow from 27,000 units shipped in 2019 to 39,000 units by 2025, with a market size of $2.385 billion in 2023, accounting for 45% of the global market [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Major players in the unmanned forklift industry include both global leaders and emerging Chinese companies, with significant investments in technology and market expansion [4] - The global robotics control system market is projected to reach approximately 80 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 84.4% from 2020 to 2024 [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolution of unmanned forklifts, highlighting their integration of traditional forklift and AGV technologies, which enhances automation in logistics and reduces labor costs and safety risks [1][2] - The industry is experiencing rapid growth driven by factors such as rising labor costs, policy support for smart manufacturing, and advancements in technology [2] Group 1: Technology and Market Trends - Unmanned forklifts have become essential in smart logistics, featuring automatic navigation, obstacle avoidance, and path planning, making them suitable for standardized and repetitive tasks [1] - The market for unmanned forklifts in China has expanded significantly, with shipments increasing from 2,700 units in 2019 (0.44% penetration rate) to 19,500 units in 2023 (1.66% penetration rate), and projected to reach 39,000 units by 2025 (3.17% penetration rate) [2] - The global market size for unmanned forklifts in China reached $2.385 billion in 2023, accounting for 45% of the global market, with Asia's overall share at 47% [2] Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The industry is characterized by a shift from traditional forklift modifications to specialized designs and autonomous systems, with a dual architecture of local controllers and cloud-based scheduling platforms [2] - Key players include Linde (China), Hangcha Intelligent, Toyota Material Handling, and Geek+, with the latter achieving the highest market share in global warehouse robotics by 2021 [2] - The global robotics control system market is expected to reach approximately 80 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 84.4% from 2020 to 2024 [2]

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the evolution of unmanned forklifts as a key driver for intelligent logistics transformation, integrating traditional forklift and AGV technologies to enhance automation and efficiency in logistics operations [2][12] - The market for unmanned forklifts is expected to grow significantly, with shipments projected to increase from 19,500 units in 2023 to 39,000 units by 2025, reflecting a penetration rate rise from 1.66% to 3.17% [4][66] Summary by Sections 1. Unmanned Forklift Overview - Unmanned forklifts combine traditional forklift and AGV technologies, offering advantages such as automatic navigation, obstacle avoidance, and path planning, which reduce labor costs and safety risks [2][12] - The average price of unmanned forklifts has decreased significantly due to the maturation of the supply chain and the rise of domestic components, with further price reductions expected [17][15] 2. Technological Evolution - The transition from AGV to AMR (Autonomous Mobile Robot) is driven by advancements in technology, with AMR offering higher efficiency and shorter payback periods [3][28] - AMR technology relies on SLAM (Simultaneous Localization and Mapping) for navigation, enhancing operational robustness and precision [3][31] 3. Market Dynamics - The industry is driven by four main factors: diminishing demographic dividends, rising labor costs, policy support for smart manufacturing, and technological advancements [4][48] - The Chinese unmanned forklift market reached a scale of $2.385 billion in 2023, accounting for 45% of the global market, with Asia leading at 47% [4][59] 4. Competitive Landscape - Major players in the unmanned forklift market include Linde, Toyota Material Handling, and Geek+, with a focus on system integration and intelligent solutions [5][101] - The global market for robotic control systems is projected to reach approximately 80 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 84.4% from 2020 to 2024 [90] 5. Application and Expansion - Unmanned forklifts are increasingly used across various sectors, including manufacturing, logistics, and agriculture, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs [21][71] - The penetration of unmanned forklifts into traditional industries is expanding, driven by technological advancements and decreasing costs [71][72]

Core Viewpoint - The sales of various types of forklifts in August 2025 reached 118,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.4%, driven by the recovery of the manufacturing sector and the competitive advantages of domestic manufacturers in cost, electrification, and delivery times [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Domestic sales amounted to 70,174 units, with a year-on-year increase of 19.3% [1] - Export volume reached 47,913 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 19.6% [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The forklift industry is highly correlated with macroeconomic conditions, and the recovery in manufacturing is expected to positively impact domestic forklift sales [1] - Domestic forklift manufacturers are expanding their presence in overseas markets, highlighting their global competitiveness [1] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The development of AI-driven unmanned forklift technology is progressing, with promising prospects for smart logistics [1] - The integration of "AI + logistics" is accelerating, leading to a market evolution towards technology-driven and multi-collaborative solutions, indicating long-term growth potential in the smart logistics sector [1] - As of 2023, the penetration rate of unmanned forklifts in China was only 1.66%, but with decreasing deployment costs and AI empowerment, the market is expected to grow rapidly, indicating significant future growth opportunities [1]