Core Viewpoint - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a recovery in domestic demand and steady growth in exports in 2025, driven by policy support and infrastructure investment [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, a total of 120,500 excavators were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.8% [1] - Domestic sales of excavators reached 65,600 units, up 22.9% year-on-year, while exports totaled 54,900 units, marking a 10.2% increase [1] - For loaders, total sales were 64,800 units, with domestic sales at 35,600 units (up 23.2%) and exports at 29,100 units (up 3.71%) [1] Group 2: Monthly Trends - In June 2025, excavator sales reached 18,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [1] - Domestic sales in June were 8,136 units, up 6.2%, while exports were 10,700 units, reflecting a 19.3% increase [1] - The recovery in domestic sales growth in June may be attributed to accelerated exports of second-hand equipment and a low base from the previous year [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Since April, the growth structure of excavators has shifted, with small excavators seeing a slowdown while demand for medium and large excavators is recovering [1] - Despite trade friction risks, export volumes have increased significantly, with June's export growth rebounding sharply compared to May [1] - The company Liugong anticipates a decline in overseas industry demand but is optimizing regional structures and enhancing overseas base construction to maintain high-quality growth in international business [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that accelerated exports of second-hand equipment and policy-driven demand for upgrades will support domestic excavator sales growth in the second half of the year [1] - Liugong expects domestic demand for earthmoving equipment to grow positively in the second half, with an annual growth rate likely exceeding double digits, driven by multiple projects releasing demand dividends [1]

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 07 月 09 日 星期三 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周二 A 股三大指数集体收涨，截止收盘，沪指收涨 0.7%，深成指收 涨 1.47%，创业板指收涨 2.39%。沪深两市成交额 14537.64 亿元。申 万行业方面，通信、电力设备、电子领涨，公用事业、银行、家用电 器领跌；概念板块方面，BC 电池、硅能源、PCB 概念涨幅居前，中船 系概念跌幅居前。港股方面，恒生指数收涨 1.09%，恒生科技指数收 涨 1.84%；海外方面，美国三大指数涨跌不一，道指收跌 0.37%，标 普 500 收跌 0.07%，纳指收涨 0.03%。 【重要新闻】 【国家卫生健康委等七部门：发展"1+N"的托育服务体系】7 月 8 日， 国家卫生健康委、国家发展改革委、教育部等 7 部门联合发布《关于 加快推进普惠托育服务体系建设的意见》，明确发展"1+N"的托育服务 体系，即以托育综合服务中心为枢纽，以托育机构、社区嵌入式托育 幼儿园托班、用人单位办托、家庭托育点等为网络的"1+ ...

开机率：国内开工表现走弱，海外稳中向好。协会数据显示，5月工程机械主要产品月平均工作时长为 84.5小时，同比-3.86%，环比-6.25%，主要产品月开工率为59.5%，同比-5.01pct，环比-2.45pct。小松开 机小时数显示4月工程机械外需有所回暖,4月北美、欧洲、日本、印尼小松挖掘机开工小时数分别为 66.5/71.9/43.1/186.4h，同比增速分别+1.0%/-1.8%/+2.5%/+13.4%。 中国工程机械出口整体稳中向好，结构调整。(1)整体稳中向好：据海关数据，25年4月我国工程机械出 口额51.52亿美元，同比增长12.7%。25年1-4月我国工程机械出口额180.7亿美元，同比增长9.0%。(2)对 非洲和南美出口维持高增长，对欧洲出口下滑严重。1-4月累计出口额增速，中国对欧洲下滑15%，主 要由于对俄罗斯工程机械出口和对西欧叉车&升降工作平台出口显著下滑；对北美-3%；对非洲和南美 洲维持较高增长(分别45%和15%)。25年1-4月中国对印尼和比利时出口维持了30+%正增长；对巴西、 印度、日本出口维持了0-10%增速；对美国出口降约3%。(3)关税扰动下，4月中国工程 ...