Core Viewpoint - The implementation of U.S. semiconductor tariffs is expected to occur between mid-August and September, with potential impacts exceeding market expectations [1][2][3]. Tariff Implementation Timeline - Barclays reports that the timeline for the semiconductor tariffs is becoming clearer, likely to be implemented after mid-August and no later than September [2][6]. - The U.S. Commerce Department is expected to submit a report on the national security trade investigation within 270 days, followed by a 90-day decision period for the President [5][6]. Tax Rate Expectations - The market's optimistic expectation of a uniform 25% tariff may be overly idealistic, with Barclays suggesting a potential incremental tax model instead [3][7]. - An incremental tariff model could start with a lower rate and gradually increase, allowing the industry time to adjust [7]. - There may also be differentiated tax rates for different countries, similar to the steel industry [8]. Impact on the Semiconductor Industry - The 232 tariff is viewed as a significant risk for the semiconductor industry, with potential impacts that could exceed market expectations [9]. - Semiconductor equipment may face phased taxation, contrary to previous expectations of exemptions [9]. - AI chips, despite assumptions of exemption, are also at risk of being taxed [10]. - The implementation of tariffs is expected to negatively impact semiconductor demand in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [11]. Industry Responses - Major semiconductor companies are advocating for exemptions on equipment and materials, emphasizing the need for policies that support U.S. manufacturing competitiveness [13][14]. - Texas Instruments and TSMC have expressed concerns that tariffs could increase costs and delay U.S. wafer fabrication projects [14].