2026 科技：3 月重视设备+耗材扩产链 20260226 摘要 半导体设备板块在经历前期情绪性回撤后，受益于"两存"上市节奏预 期修正、海外存储厂商明确扩产信号以及 3 月设备招标启动，具备继续 上涨的基础，中期来看，"两存"存储设备扩产预期已上修至 14 万片 到 15 万片左右。 2026 年"两存"扩产增量主要来自长存二厂、三厂及长鑫合肥、北京、 上海新厂，预计两家合计扩产至少 14 万片到 15 万片，设备订单增速接 近翻倍，设备公司有望依次经历"谈订单—下订单—收入释放"的兑现 过程。 国内先进逻辑产能存在显著供需缺口，台积电暂停为中国先进逻辑厂商 代工后，国产 AI 芯片对国内先进制程代工需求显著提升，预计 2026 年 先进逻辑总体扩产约 8 万片，增速在 50%以上。 成熟逻辑方面，28nm 应用于 SoC、IoT、汽车芯片，应用前景广阔， 且存储晶圆的逻辑外包带来新增需求，未来 3D NAND 与 DRAM 合计需 求可能在"百万片以上"，推动更大规模的 28nm 扩产需求。 成熟逻辑扩产的驱动因素是什么，存储相关逻辑外包对 28nm 产能意味着什么？ 走向更激进的动力；三是 3 月份年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the mechanical equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights investment opportunities in the AIDC and solar power sectors due to electricity shortages in North America, as well as historical opportunities in advanced packaging equipment for semiconductors [1][2][3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: Northern Huachuang, SANY Heavy Industry, Zhongwei Company, Hengli Hydraulic, CIMC, Tuojing Technology, Haitian International, Bichu Electronics, Jingsheng Mechanical, Jereh, Zhejiang Dingli, Hangcha Group, Xianjin Intelligent, Changchuan Technology, Huace Detection, Anhui Helix, Jingce Electronics, Nuwei Co., Chip Source Micro, Green Harmonics, Haitian Precision, Hangke Technology, Yizhiming, New Lai Materials, and High Measurement Shares [1] Gas Turbine Sector - The report notes that President Trump encourages large companies to build their own power sources, which is expected to boost demand for natural gas power generation equipment. The domestic gas turbine industry is highlighted as having significant investment opportunities, particularly for companies like Jereh, Dongfang Electric, and Yingliu [2] Photovoltaic Equipment - The report emphasizes the growing demand for solar power in both terrestrial and space computing applications, with Tesla planning to expand its solar capacity significantly by 2028. Companies recommended in this sector include Maiwei Shares, Jingsheng Mechanical, High Measurement Shares, and Aotwei [3] Semiconductor Equipment - The report discusses the benefits for domestic equipment manufacturers due to rising tensions between China and Japan, which favor local alternatives. Companies like Changchuan Technology, Chip Source Micro, and Maiwei are highlighted as key players benefiting from this trend [4] PCB Equipment and Liquid Cooling - NVIDIA's strong performance is noted, with significant revenue growth indicating robust demand for computing power. The report suggests investment opportunities in the PCB and liquid cooling supply chains, recommending companies like Dazhu CNC, Chip Source Micro, and Yinguang Technology [5][6] Robotics Industry - The report indicates a recent pullback in the robotics sector but suggests that upcoming events, such as the release of Tesla's V3 robot, could catalyze growth. Companies like Hengli Hydraulic and Sanhua Intelligent are recommended as key players [10] Oil and Gas Equipment - The report identifies the Middle East as a core market for oil services, with companies like Jereh and Nuwei highlighted for their growth potential in this region [43]

报告期内，随着公司技术水平的不断提高、产品成熟度以及市场对公司产品的认可度不断提升，公司业 务开拓迅速，销售收入持续增长，报告期内保持持续盈利。 得益于中国半导体设备市场需求增长、公司在清洗设备领域竞争优势的提升以及不断开拓新的半导体设 备产品，报告期内公司销售收入为67.86亿元，呈持续增长的趋势。公司产品的规模化销售是公司科技 成果与产业深度融合的具体表征。公司产品研发方向符合市场趋势和需求，与产业发展深度融合。产品 的研发成果取得了行业主流客户的认可，客户验证情况良好，增强了公司产品的竞争力。 智通财经APP讯，盛美上海(688082.SH)披露2025年年度报告，报告期公司实现营收67.86亿元，同比增 长20.80%;归母净利润13.96亿元，同比增长21.05%;扣非净利润12.2亿元，同比增长10.02%;基本每股收 益3.10元。拟每10股派发现金红利6.233元(含税)。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that securities firms are advancing their spring strategy meetings, reflecting a shift in the industry competition landscape and a transition from a traditional "research for commission" model to a "service for income" model [1][4][5] Group 2 - Securities firms are focusing on emerging sectors such as AI technology and non-ferrous metals, establishing specialized forums to discuss these areas [2] - Analysts predict significant growth in the semiconductor equipment market, with sales expected to reach $145 billion in 2026 and $156 billion in 2027, highlighting China's position as the largest semiconductor equipment market [2] - The commercial aerospace sector is anticipated to undergo transformative changes driven by technological advancements and new applications [2] Group 3 - Investment opportunities for 2026 are emerging, with a clear focus on technology sectors, particularly AI, which is seen as a core driver of market growth [3] - Analysts recommend attention to cyclical and value sectors, including non-ferrous metals and chemicals, due to ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting supply [3] - Predictions indicate a potential super cycle for oil prices in 2026, benefiting the refining sector, with recommendations to focus on oil and chemical sectors in the first half of the year [3] Group 4 - The early scheduling of strategy meetings is a response to intensified market competition and the need for securities firms to enhance their visibility and influence [4][5] - The shift from a one-way research output to a more interactive service model is driven by the pressure of reduced commissions in the public fund sector [5] - The "early bird" strategy in hosting meetings presents both opportunities and challenges, requiring firms to improve their research responsiveness and service value [5]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment and materials market is expanding into AI chip design, with strong performance from companies like Nvidia and domestic players such as Haiguang Information and Cambrian, indicating a robust growth trajectory in the sector [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Nvidia reported a revenue of $68.1 billion, a 73% year-over-year increase, with strong growth in its data center business and a positive outlook extending to 2027 [4]. - Haiguang Information expects a revenue increase of 62.91% to 75.82% year-over-year for Q1 2026, building on a 57% increase in 2025 [1]. - Cambrian anticipates a net profit increase of 575% for 2025, showcasing the strong demand for domestic AI chips [1][4]. Group 2: Market Trends - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) has shown resilience, recovering from a 2% dip to gain over 2% during the day, reflecting investor confidence in the sector [1]. - The semiconductor theme index has outperformed other indices since 2020, with a significant increase of 290.72% compared to other chip-related indices [2][3]. - The supply-demand dynamics in the storage chip market have shifted, with SK Hynix indicating a transition to a seller's market, leading to expected price increases [4]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The growth in semiconductor equipment, materials, and design is expected to continue until at least 2027, driven by strong demand and capacity expansion in the industry [4]. - The domestic semiconductor industry is benefiting from increased localization, with the localization rate for wafer manufacturing equipment expected to rise from 25% in 2024 to 30% in 2026 [4]. - The increasing demand for AI computing power, coupled with rising storage prices and accelerated domestic substitution, is favorable for the equipment, materials, and design sectors [4].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 湘财证券指出，随着国内政策持续发力，叠加"反内卷"等措施有望带动制造业盈利能力修复，未来制造 业景气度有望逐渐回升，带动上游机械设备总体需求持续好转。具体来看，在机器人板块，2026年春晚 中我国人形机器人头部企业展示出色性能，有望带动相关产品出货量快速增长，叠加特斯拉Optimus V3 有望定型并进入量产环节，我国及全球人形机器人产销量有望呈爆发式增长，进而带动上游减速器、丝 杠等核心零部件需求大幅扩大。在半导体设备板块，全球人工智能和数据中心建设浪潮下，存储等芯片 价格持续快速上涨，有望驱动半导体企业加速扩产。叠加国内存储龙头有望上市以及国产化进程持续， 我国半导体设备行业需求有望保持持续增长。 工业母机ETF（159667）跟踪的是中证机床指数（931866），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及机床整机及 关键零部件制造和服务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映机床产业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 成分股集中于机械设备行业，呈现偏中小盘风格，涵盖数控、激光加工、自动化等细分领域。 ...

Group 1: Overall Industry Outlook - The semiconductor industry is experiencing an upward trend in performance, driven by strong demand in storage, equipment, and foundry sectors [1] - The report maintains an overweight recommendation for the semiconductor sector due to the overall industry recovery and growth potential [1] Group 2: Performance of Overseas Listed Companies - North American cloud service providers, including Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta, reported significant year-on-year growth in cloud revenues, driven by AI demand, with capital expenditures expected to increase substantially in 2026 [14][15][16][17] - TSMC, the global leader in foundry services, reported a 25.5% year-on-year increase in Q4 2025 revenue, reaching $33.73 billion, with net profit growing over 40% [21] - Micron Technology's Q1 FY26 revenue reached approximately $13.64 billion, benefiting from rising storage prices driven by AI demand [31] - Texas Instruments and Analog Devices showed signs of recovery in the analog chip sector, with Texas Instruments reporting a 10% year-on-year revenue increase in Q4 2025 [39][41] Group 3: Performance of Domestic Listed Companies - SMIC reported a Q4 2025 revenue of 17.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, with net profit growing by 23.2% [57] - The semiconductor packaging and testing sector is recovering, with several companies reporting improved profitability and growth driven by AI demand [60] - The analog chip sector is also showing signs of recovery, with many companies reporting improved performance compared to 2024 [62] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth segments driven by AI, such as computing chips, storage, advanced packaging, and semiconductor equipment [7]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the semiconductor industry, specifically focusing on storage, PCB (Printed Circuit Board), and AI-related sectors. - Key companies mentioned include C1 Technology, Su Ning International, and various passive component manufacturers. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Investment Recommendations in Storage and PCB Sectors** - The company recommends focusing on the storage sector and upstream PCB components, including copper foil and related equipment, which are expected to see price increases in Q1 2023 [1][2]. - C1 Technology has raised prices in Q4 2022, indicating a positive price trend for the PCB upstream sector [2]. 2. **Focus on Autonomous and Controllable Technologies** - Emphasis on investing in semiconductor equipment, materials, and domestic computing chips, which are seen as critical for future growth [1][3]. - The demand for domestic chips is expected to rise due to increased capital expenditure in the sector [4]. 3. **Opportunities in AI and Testing Sectors** - The second half of 2023 and 2024 presents opportunities in AI testing, with expectations of new product launches from companies like OpenAI [5]. - The performance of Apple and its ecosystem is anticipated to improve, benefiting from the AI advancements [5]. 4. **Passive Components and Market Dynamics** - The rise in prices of high-end products from overseas competitors is expected to create a ripple effect, leading to price increases for A-share companies in the passive components sector [3]. 5. **Cloud Services and Pricing Trends** - The cloud services sector is experiencing price increases driven by demand, with major players like AWS and Google raising prices significantly [16][17]. - The introduction of AI agents is democratizing access to cloud services, allowing non-programmers to utilize these technologies [17]. 6. **Growth in Capex and Network Connectivity** - Continuous growth in capital expenditure (capex) is noted, particularly in network connectivity, with a shift towards optical solutions due to their superior long-term performance [11][12]. 7. **Upcoming Industry Events** - The North American OFC event in March is expected to showcase advancements in NPU and optical module technologies, which could influence market dynamics [15]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The conference highlights the importance of monitoring market trends and the performance of specific companies within the semiconductor and cloud service sectors, suggesting that investors should remain vigilant for emerging opportunities [4][19]. - The discussion also touches on the competitive landscape of the gaming industry, indicating that companies with strong product pipelines are likely to perform well in upcoming quarters [10]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the semiconductor and cloud service industries.

2026年是"十五五"开局之年，中国经济步入新发展阶段。 展望2026年，权益市场整体走向如何？A股突破关键点位后动能是否充足？外资何时回流超配？还有哪 些方向值得投资者去挖掘？ 2026年伊始，6家外资机构做客智通财经"春水向东流——《首席连线》2026年市场展望"专题把脉马年 投资，多家外资机构人士普遍认为，A股已进入"慢牛"阶段，投资逻辑正从"估值修复"转向"盈利主 导"，人工智能成为一致看好的核心赛道。 A股从估值修复转向盈利主导 对于2026年A股市场的整体判断，接受采访的外资机构普遍持乐观态度，认为A股已进入"慢牛"新阶 段，市场驱动逻辑正在发生深刻转变。 摩根士丹利预计2026年沪深300指数盈利增长率将达6%-7%，支撑这一判断的关键因素包括：上市公司 持续加大研发创新与资本开支投入，在 人工智能、高端制造等领域保持全球竞争优势；房地产市场企稳与消费增长加速的拐点有望出现，带动 相关行业盈利改善；财政政策与货币政策的多重支持，将进一步助力盈利增速攀升等。 富达基金股票部负责人周文群则预判，2026年下半年可能出现风格切换，"宏观基本面在经历了过去两 到三年的消化之后，我们可能会看到一些传统板块 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry continues to experience high growth, while the photovoltaic industry faces increasing supply-demand pressures. The company focuses on innovation to seize semiconductor market opportunities and address challenges in the photovoltaic sector [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for 2025 was 2.632 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 2.52% year-on-year [1] - Semiconductor equipment revenue reached 881 million yuan, a significant increase of 169.12% year-on-year, accounting for 33.50% of main business revenue [1] - Photovoltaic equipment revenue was 1.589 billion yuan, a decline of 30.62% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Profitability - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 213 million yuan, a decrease of 6.12% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 153 million yuan, down 18.49% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Factors Influencing Performance - The decline in overall revenue was primarily due to a reduction in the acceptance quantity of photovoltaic equipment [1] - Changes in product structure and new capacity led to increased depreciation and amortization, along with asset impairment losses related to photovoltaic projects [1] - The company continues to maintain high R&D investment to advance its semiconductor business and sustain its leading position in next-generation photovoltaic cell technology [1]