商业模式的可持续性构成企业穿越周期的护城河。某些新兴消费品牌凭借流量红利迅速崛起，但当营销 费用侵蚀利润时，其真实盈利能力便显露原形。优质企业的商业模式往往具备"自强化"特性：就像云计 算服务商通过持续迭代的API生态构建用户粘性，或连锁餐饮企业依靠中央厨房体系实现单店盈利模型 的快速复制。评估这类模式的核心在于观察"用户留存率"与"单位经济模型"——前者反映客户价值的沉 淀能力，后者则揭示扩张过程中的边际效益变化。 挖掘上市后具备长期投资价值的"潜力股"，需要穿透市场短期波动的迷雾，在企业成长轨迹中寻找可持 续的价值锚点。这种投资逻辑并非追逐热点概念，而是建立在对行业趋势、商业模式与管理层能力的深 度解构之上。 真正的潜力企业往往诞生于产业变革的临界点。当技术创新与社会需求形成共振，行业格局便会发生重 构。观察新能源汽车赛道可见，早期电池企业的竞争焦点集中于能量密度突破，而如今固态电池技术的 产业化进程，正悄然改写未来十年的竞争规则。投资者需要像地质学家勘探矿藏那样，识别技术演进曲 线中那些具有"颠覆性"特征的关键节点——不是简单跟踪专利数量，而是分析技术路线能否解决真实世 界的痛点，以及是否具备从实验室走 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2025 年 11 月 24 日 机械设备 人形机器人：产业链协同开启规模化时代 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《可控核聚变产业数据跟踪（二）：7.3 亿低温 系统招标，聚变产业化驶入快车道》 2025-11-19 《智能制造行业周报：人形机器人整机厂正加 速资本化进程》2025-11-17 《智能制造行业周报：看好 SoC 测试设备在 先进制程与端侧 AI 渗透带动下加速放量》 2025-11-10 《智能制造行业周报：关注核聚变冷端演进， 深冷系统厂商迎来切入机遇》2025-11-03 《智能制造行业周报：Optimus 量产节奏调整， 关注前臂与手部集成演进的增量机会》 2025-10-27 证券分析师 王凯 S0820524120002 021-32229888-25522 wangkai526@ajzq.com 行业及产业 ——智能制造行业周报（2025/11/17-2025/11/21） 强于大市 投资要点： 本周（2025/11/17-2025/11/21）沪深 300 指数-3.77%，其中机械 ...

中共河北省委关于制定河北省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议发布。其中指出，培育壮大 数字经济。推进数字产业化和产业数字化，加快建设数据驱动、智能融合的数字河北。统筹算力基础设 施规划布局，推动建设全国一体化算力网络京津冀国家枢纽节点，加快打造环京地区智能算力集聚区。 中泰证券（600918）认为，AI算力成为通信行业主要增长引擎，持续看好算力产业链投资机会，头部 光模块厂商交付能力将成为成长关键，重视光芯片、OCS、空芯光纤、液冷、电源等细分方向。国产算 力重视芯片进展，以及国产模型追赶变化，将影响AIDC景气节奏。 中信证券认为，2025年以来中美科技股均取得亮眼成绩，算力板块涨幅领跑市场，模型和应用侧亦出现 局部爆发机会。展望2026年，国产算力方兴未艾，业绩弹性及投资确定性兼备，有望复刻美股2023年以 来的长牛行情。一方面，半导体设备、AI芯片等在海外管制下发展紧迫性增强，国产替代是大势所 趋；另一方面，国内芯片厂已初步探索出超节点等解决方案，以多卡数量优势补足单卡性能劣势，实现 算力突围。多卡集群的建设对零组件的数量和质量提出更高要求，并为产业链上下游带来更大的投资机 遇，液冷、存储、电源、 ...

分红方面，深科达A股上市后累计派现5077.60万元。近三年，累计派现944.56万元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，深科达十大流通股东中，大成中证360互联网+指数A（002236） 位居第八大流通股东，持股63.08万股，为新进股东。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，深圳市深科达智能装备股份有限公司位于广东省深圳市宝安区西乡街道龙腾社区汇智研发中 心B座10楼，成立日期2004年6月14日，上市日期2021年3月9日，公司主营业务涉及从事平板显示器件 生产设备的研发、生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：平板显示类设备49.90%，半导体设备27.02%， 核心零部件22.49%，其他(补充)0.59%。 截至9月30日，深科达股东户数7041.00，较上期增加7.55%；人均流通股13415股，较上期减少7.02%。 2025年1月-9月，深科达实现营业收入5.28亿元，同比增长30.52%；归母净利润2787.45万元，同比增长 178.29%。 11月21日，深科达跌5.33%，成交额5340.70万元。两融数据显示，当日深科达获融资买入额487.59万 元，融资偿还501.82万元，融资净买入 ...

《电报解读》是一款主打时效性和专业性的即时资讯解读产品。侧重于挖掘重要事件的投资价值、分析 产业链公司以及解读重磅政策的要点。即时为用户提供快讯信息对市场影响的投资参考，将信息的价值 用专业的视角、朴素的语言、图文并茂的方式呈现给用户。 前言 ①人形机器人+灵巧手，项目集中在灵巧手部件，已实现海外批量出货，国内对接客户超30家，这家公司 四季度订单仍在加速，正积极扩产。 ②HBM+半导体设备，设备通过HBM先进封装工艺验证并批量销 售，客户基本覆盖国内主要HBM厂商，这家公司细分设备打破国外垄断。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing a high growth cycle driven by domestic controllability policies and AI technology, with a year-to-date index increase of 57.28% [1] Investment Framework - The investment framework is divided into three levels: industry prosperity cycle (40%-50% weight), company fundamentals (30%-40% weight), and valuation level [2][3] - The semiconductor equipment sector has completed its initial breakthrough and is entering a high growth phase, making it an ideal investment opportunity [2] Semiconductor Equipment Sector Outlook - The semiconductor equipment sector is in the early to mid-stage of a high growth cycle, supported by domestic policies and increasing demand from wafer fabs for mid-to-high-end equipment [4] - The dual drivers of domestic controllability policies and AI applications are expected to sustain the growth of the semiconductor equipment sector over the next three years [5] Investment Opportunities - The increase in domestic production rates and AI-driven demand are seen as key sources of excess returns, with companies successfully positioned in the AI supply chain expected to have significant growth potential [6] - The advanced packaging sector is also viewed positively, as it becomes crucial for enhancing chip performance amid the slowdown of Moore's Law [5][6] Market Dynamics - The storage chip sector is anticipated to experience a high growth cycle due to expansion, with expectations for acceleration in mid to late 2026 [6] - Caution is advised for stocks heavily reliant on price rebounds, particularly in the DRAM market, where prices have more than doubled since last year [7]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing a high prosperity cycle driven by self-controllable policies and AI technology, with the semiconductor equipment index rising by 57.28% this year [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment framework is divided into three levels: industry prosperity cycle (40%-50% weight), company fundamentals (30%-40% weight), and valuation level [2][3] - The semiconductor equipment sector has completed the initial breakthrough and is entering a high-speed growth phase, making it an ideal investment opportunity [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The semiconductor equipment sector is in the early to mid-stage of high-speed growth, supported by domestic expansion of wafer fabs and increasing demand for mid-to-high-end equipment [4] - The dual benefits of self-controllable policies and AI-driven applications are expected to sustain the semiconductor equipment sector's prosperity over the next three years [5] Group 3: Sector Preferences - There is a clear preference for the advanced packaging sector, which is becoming crucial for enhancing chip performance due to the slowdown of Moore's Law [5] - The increase in domestic production rates and the demand driven by AI are seen as key long-term growth factors for the semiconductor industry [6] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Companies that successfully position themselves within the AI industry chain are expected to gain significant competitive advantages and open up larger development spaces [6] - Caution is advised for stocks that rely heavily on price rebounds, particularly in the DRAM market, where prices have more than doubled compared to last year [7]

1）成本压力激增：半导体设备、动力电池、光伏组件等关键产品跨境贸易成本上升，挤压企业利润空 间； 2）供应链重构加速：企业需重新评估区域化、近岸化布局策略，以规避政策风险； 3）市场竞争分化：部分国家可能通过本土补贴政策保护产业，导致全球市场份额争夺战升级； 4）合规复杂性提升：多边贸易规则与各国反制措施的叠加，要求企业动态调整合规策略。 QYResearch全球分析师团队指出，关税政策的影响将因行业特性呈现显著差异。 比如，半导体设备 行业需应对技术出口限制与供应链本地化需求。 在此背景下，精准的行业数据、竞争情报成为企业破 局关键。 2. QYResearch的核心服务：以数据为基础，为客户提供标准化、定制化服务，助力企业应对关 税政策引发的市场变局，具体服务如下： 近期，特朗普政府对多国加征关税的举措持续引发全球市场震动，贸易战阴霾笼罩下的企业亟需穿 透现象本质的战略指引。特朗普政府的这一举措或将重塑全球贸易格局，对半导体、新能源汽车、 光伏、通信、先进材料等产业链的跨国企业造成深远影响。在此背景下，QYResearch作为全球领先 的市场研究与战略咨询机构，凭借其覆盖160多个国家的数据网络与行业洞察 ...

Market Overview - A-shares collectively declined on Thursday, with over 3,000 stocks falling and trading volume dropping to recent lows, indicating poor market profitability [1] - The banking sector showed resilience, with several state-owned banks rising over 3% [1] - As the year-end approaches, market participants are exhibiting a cautious trading attitude, leading to a significant reduction in A-share trading volume [1] Future Outlook - The market is expected to experience fluctuations around the 4000-point level, which may prepare for a potential upward movement [1] - The manufacturing sector is anticipated to see an improvement in supply and demand by 2026, which could lead to a notable recovery in the earnings growth of A-share listed companies [1] - Key focus areas for November include the impact of the 14th Five-Year Plan on industries, event-driven dynamics in the technology sector, and price recovery driven by anti-involution trends [1] Sector Highlights - The technology sector remains a focal point in November, with opportunities for rebound in underperforming areas such as robotics, military, and smart vehicles [2] - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its trend towards domestic production, with attention on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] - The military sector is projected to see a recovery in orders by 2025, with signs of bottoming out in the performance of various military sub-sectors [2] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is entering a recovery phase after nearly four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth observed since Q3 2024 [2] - The banking sector has begun to see a rebound in mid-year performance growth following the impact of loan rate re-pricing, making it attractive to long-term institutional investors due to its dividend yield [2]

今日，美国半导体设备巨头应用材料公司针对部分媒体对其中国业务的不实报道发布澄清声明。 在中美半导体贸易政策持续调整的背景下，这家全球芯片设备领域的核心企业，其在华业务的每一步动向都牵动着产业链神经。从年初的政策冲击到年末 的财报争议，应用材料的中国业务轨迹如何？澄清声明又传递出哪些关键信号？ 进入2025年第四季度，新的政策变量再次扰动市场。 10月，美国推出"50%股权穿透"出口管制规则，这一更为严苛的限制使得应用材料第四财季约1.1亿美元的产品无法按时交付中国客户，公司更预估该规则 将导致2026财年营收再减6亿美元。 雪上加霜的是，11月14日应用材料发布的2025财年第四财季及全年财报，因同时包含"中国市场销售额占比回落至25%左右"和"中美会晤后管制规则暂 停、受阻产品将后续发货"等复杂表述，被部分媒体误读，进而出现了关于其中国业务"全面收缩""战略撤离"等不实报道，最终促使公司在11月20日紧急 发布澄清声明以正视听。 澄清声明的核心 尽管此次澄清声明未罗列详尽的经营数据，但结合应用材料此前财报信息及高管公开表态，其针对舆论争议的回应精准且指向明确： 首先是 明确在华业务的核心立场 。声明中着重强 ...