炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ （来源：研报虎） 核心观点 美国《华尔街日报》9月26日消息称，特朗普政府正考虑要求芯片企业在美国本土生产的芯片数量，必 须与其从海外进口的芯片数量保持相当。若长期不能保持这一1:1的比例，有关企业将面临关税处罚。 据观察者网报道，该构想源于特朗普上月的表态。当时他表示，若科技企业增加在美国的投资，将可避 免高达100%的半导体关税。但报道分析称，与单纯扩大本土投资相比，实现国内与进口产能对等难度 更高，因为海外产品往往价格更低，而美国供应链调整困难，扩产也需要时间。一旦该想法落地，这一 举措将使美国现已非常复杂的关税体系变得更加复杂，这对部分正在扩大美国产能的企业来说可能是一 个利好，比如台积电、美光科技公司、晶圆代工厂格芯等，让他们在与客户谈判时拥有更大筹码。 省内施工加速，基本面有望加速改善 25H1四川路桥累计新增中标项目218个，金额约722亿元，同比增长22.20%，其中，基建订单增速高达 25.88%，但新开工项目受土地组卷报批、项目红线用地征拆等前期工作影响，未能实现大面积动工， 公司上半年收入有所承压。8月28日，抓项 ...

Core Viewpoint - MediaTek has launched its new flagship mobile SoC, the Dimensity 9500, which will debut in the vivo X300 series smartphones [1] Group 1: Product Features - The Dimensity 9500 utilizes TSMC's N3P process and features a full big-core CPU design, including the world's first Arm C1 series CPU cluster and G1-Ultra GPU, along with new dual NPU and ISP image processing units [1] - The CPU architecture consists of 1 C1-Ultra super core at 4.21GHz, 3 C1-Premium super cores, and 4 C1-Pro big cores, supporting 4-channel UFS4.1 flash storage [3] - Single-core performance has improved by 32% and multi-core performance by 17% compared to the previous generation, with peak power consumption for super cores reduced by 55% and multi-core peak power consumption down by 37% [3] Group 2: Performance Metrics - MediaTek's lab data shows the Dimensity 9500 achieving a GeekBench single-core score of 4007 and a multi-core score of 11217 [4] - Real-world testing by @Zealer reported a single-core score of 3610 and a multi-core score of 10765, indicating that Android flagship performance is now comparable to Apple's current flagship [4] Group 3: Market Position and Future Plans - The first smartphones featuring the Dimensity 9500 are expected to launch in Q4 2025, with vivo's X300 series and OPPO's Find X9 series confirmed to use the new chip [6] - MediaTek is negotiating with TSMC to produce some chips in the U.S. to mitigate potential tariff risks, particularly for automotive and sensitive application chips [7] - MediaTek has announced further collaboration with TSMC to be among the first to adopt TSMC's 2nm process technology, with a new SoC design expected to achieve an 18% performance increase and a 36% reduction in power consumption compared to the current N3E process [7]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup analysts find ASML Holding's stock attractive due to recent positive developments in the news [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - ASML, a Dutch chip manufacturing equipment supplier, previously expressed uncertainty about guaranteeing growth by 2026 due to President Trump's tariff policies, disappointing investors [1] - A recent agreement between the EU and the US sets a 15% tariff cap on semiconductor exports, improving the market outlook [1] Group 2: Key Client Developments - Intel, a key customer of ASML, has shown improved news, with the US government planning to hold a 10% stake in Intel [1] - NVIDIA announced a $5 billion investment in Intel as part of a collaboration to develop customized data center and personal computing products [1]

Core Viewpoint - Malaysia's export growth has slowed in August despite an increase in manufactured and agricultural product exports, raising concerns about future export prospects due to uncertainties related to U.S. semiconductor tariffs and trade measures [1] Export Performance - In August, Malaysia's export value increased by 1.9% year-on-year, reaching 131.6 billion ringgit (approximately 31.36 billion USD), compared to a revised growth of 6.5% in July [1] - The trade surplus for August was 16.13 billion ringgit, an increase from the trade surplus of 14.61 billion ringgit in July [1] Import Trends - Malaysia's imports decreased by 5.9%, amounting to 115.47 billion ringgit [1] Analyst Concerns - Analysts express ongoing concerns regarding Malaysia's export outlook due to the downward risks posed by U.S. semiconductor tariffs and trade measures targeting specific industries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments to the U.S. tariff policy, particularly focusing on the implications for semiconductor tariffs and trade agreements with foreign partners [1][2][5]. Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - On September 5, President Trump signed an executive order to adjust the scope of import tariffs and implement trade and security framework agreements with foreign partners [2][3]. - The executive order allows for the adjustment of tariffs based on agreements with foreign trade partners, including the potential reduction of "reciprocal tariffs" to zero for certain products [3][4]. - Products eligible for zero "reciprocal tariffs" include those that cannot be produced in the U.S. or are insufficient to meet domestic demand, specific agricultural products, aircraft and parts, and non-patented pharmaceuticals [3]. Group 2: Semiconductor Tariffs - Trump indicated that a "fairly substantial" semiconductor tariff is forthcoming, although specific details were not disclosed [7]. - He emphasized that companies like Apple, which manufacture in the U.S., may be exempt from these tariffs, suggesting a strategic approach to encourage domestic production [7][8]. - The potential for a 100% tariff on semiconductor products was previously mentioned, with exemptions for companies committed to U.S. manufacturing [8]. Group 3: Trade Agreements with Japan - A trade agreement with Japan has been formalized, reducing tariffs on Japanese automobiles and parts from 25% to 15% [6]. - The agreement includes a baseline tariff of 15% on nearly all Japanese goods entering the U.S., with differentiated treatment for specific sectors such as automotive and aerospace products [6]. - Japan is expected to increase its procurement of U.S. agricultural products significantly, including a 75% increase in U.S. rice purchases and an annual total of $8 billion in various U.S. agricultural products [6].

Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor stocks experienced a decline despite market trends, with Nvidia (NVDA.US) dropping over 2% and AMD (AMD.US) falling more than 4% due to new tariff announcements from the U.S. government targeting companies that do not relocate production to the U.S. [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Nvidia (NVDA.US) shares fell by more than 2% [1] - AMD (AMD.US) shares decreased by over 4% [1] Group 2: Government Policy - Trump announced that the U.S. government will impose tariffs on semiconductor companies that do not shift production to the U.S. [1] - Companies that invest in the U.S. or plan to build factories may be exempt from these tariffs [1] - The tariffs will be "considerable but not excessive" according to Trump [1]

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，他"很快"将对半导体进口征收关税，但不包括苹果等公司的商品，它们 已承诺增加对美国的投资。 在涉及苹果可能面临的进口关税时，特朗普周四表示，苹果首席执行官提姆·库克的状况会不错，特朗 普提及苹果近期的投资承诺。 总统在白宫与库克等全球最大科技公司的高管和创始人共进晚餐，这是一次罕见的聚会，期间他做出回 应。 特朗普先前曾暗示，关税税率可能远高于100%，甚至最高可能达到200%或300%。 责任编辑：栎树 "我已经和这些人讨论过芯片和半导体的问题，我们将对那些不来的公司征收关税，"特朗普说。"我们 很快就会征收关税。你们可能听说了，我们会征收相当可观的关税，或者说，虽然没那么高，但相当可 观的关税。" 他补充道，"如果他们进来、建造、计划进来，就不会有关税。" 特朗普上个月与库克一起参加活动时说，他计划对半导体征收100%的关税，但那些将生产线迁回美国 的企业，它们的产品将被豁免。苹果已承诺斥资6000亿美元用于国内制造计划。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has revoked TSMC's authorization to freely ship necessary equipment to its Nanjing plant in mainland China, which may limit the production capacity of this mature process chip factory [2][3]. Group 1: Impact on TSMC - TSMC confirmed it received notification from the U.S. government that its "Verified End Use" (VEU) authorization for the Nanjing plant will be revoked by December 31 of this year, and the company is assessing the situation and taking appropriate measures [2][3]. - The Nanjing plant, which initially focused on 16/12nm processes, has shifted to expand its 28nm capacity due to increasing U.S. export controls, with a monthly production capacity of 20,000 wafers for 16/12nm and 40,000 wafers for 28/22nm [3][4]. - TSMC's mainland operations generated approximately NT$26 billion in profit last year, making it an important source of revenue despite its relatively low contribution percentage [3]. Group 2: Broader Industry Implications - The U.S. government's actions are seen as a significant threat to the operations of major semiconductor companies in mainland China, particularly those from Taiwan and South Korea [3][4]. - The shift from blanket approvals to individual license applications for semiconductor equipment has introduced uncertainty regarding the timeline for obtaining necessary permits, which could impact operational continuity [4]. - The U.S. has imposed extensive restrictions on mainland China's access to materials and equipment used for advanced chip manufacturing, aiming to limit China's AI capabilities [4].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high of 3731.76 points, surpassing the previous peak of 3731.69 points from February 18, 2021, marking the highest level since August 19, 2015 [2][3] - A-shares saw a total trading volume exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan, with 4188 stocks rising [2] - The ChiNext Index increased by over 3% [2] Hong Kong Market Performance - The three major indices in Hong Kong opened higher, with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.09%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 0.21%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 0.4% [3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index further increased by 1.45% to 5623.32 points [3] Sector Performance - The innovative pharmaceutical sector in Hong Kong showed strong performance, with stocks like Ascentage Pharma rising over 10% and others like Sihuan Pharmaceutical and XinTai Medical increasing by over 8% [5] - The consumer electronics sector experienced a short-term rally, leading gains in communication equipment, computer hardware, software, internet, and electronic components [7] - Notable stocks included Yidong Electronics, which rose over 18%, and Nanya New Materials, which increased over 17% [8] Noteworthy Stocks and Trends - HaiNeng Technology and JingSai Technology hit their daily limit up [9] - The brokerage sector continued to rise, with Changcheng Securities recording four consecutive trading limits, and other firms like Western Securities and Dazhihui increasing by over 5% [9] - The tourism sector also saw gains, with stocks like Tibet Tourism and Caesar Travel hitting their daily limit up [9]

Report Overview - Report Date: August 18, 2025 - Report Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment ratings for the industry were provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Precious Metals**: PPI exceeding expectations dampened interest - rate cut expectations, with gold and silver showing downward trends. Gold's trend strength was - 1, and silver's was also - 1 [2][7]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Lacked driving forces, with price fluctuations narrowing, and a trend strength of 0 [2][9]. - **Zinc**: Inventory accumulation became apparent, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][12]. - **Lead**: A decrease in LME inventory supported prices, and the trend strength was 0 [2][15]. - **Tin**: Traded in a range, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: Continued to converge. Alumina saw a small sideways increase, while cast aluminum alloy faced increasing pressure in the off - season. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy were all 0 [2][23]. - **Nickel**: Traded in a narrow range based on fundamentals, and investors were warned of news - related risks. Stainless steel prices oscillated due to the game between macro - expectations and reality. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel were both 0 [2][26]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals Gold - **Price Movement**: Domestic and international gold prices declined. For example, the closing price of Comex Gold 2510 was $3381.70, down 0.02% [5]. - **Market News**: PPI exceeding expectations dampened interest - rate cut expectations. Overseas demand for US Treasuries remained resilient, and foreign investors' holdings in June reached a new high [7]. Silver - **Price Movement**: Prices declined slightly. For instance, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9204, down 0.88% [5]. - **Market News**: Similar to gold, influenced by macro - factors, with a trend strength of - 1 [7]. Base Metals Copper - **Price Movement**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,060 yuan, up 0.14%. The London Copper 3M electronic disk closed at $9,760, down 0.17% [9]. - **Market News**: China's July economic data showed declines in various indicators. The US July retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month. Chile's copper exports to China recovered in July after a decline in June [9]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,505 yuan, up 0.11%. The London Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at $2,796.5, down 1.62% [12]. - **Market News**: Inventory accumulation became more obvious, and the LME cash - 3M spread decreased [12]. Lead - **Price Movement**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16,850 yuan, up 0.48%. The London Lead 3M electronic disk closed at $1,981, down 0.45% [15]. - **Market News**: A decrease in LME lead inventory supported prices [15]. Tin - **Price Movement**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 266,820 yuan, down 0.22%. The London Tin 3M electronic disk closed at $33,610, up 0.52% [19]. - **Market News**: Traded in a range, with changes in inventory and price spreads [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movement**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,770 yuan. Alumina prices showed a small sideways increase, and the cast aluminum alloy main contract closed at 20,165 yuan [23]. - **Market News**: Aluminum continued to converge, alumina was stable with a small increase, and cast aluminum alloy faced off - season pressure [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,600 yuan, and the stainless steel main contract closed at 13,010 yuan [26]. - **Market News**: Nickel traded in a narrow range based on fundamentals, and stainless steel prices oscillated due to the game between macro - expectations and reality. There were also various industry news such as production suspensions in Indonesian nickel - iron smelting parks [26].