Core Viewpoint - The report highlights key indicators to monitor during a bull market, emphasizing macroeconomic metrics, trading activity, capital inflows, and asset valuation comparisons [2][3]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Indicators - Indicator 1: The ratio of market capitalization to GDP is currently at 85.6%, with a change of 18.5% from the start to the end of the current market cycle, indicating room for improvement compared to historical highs [5][16]. - Indicator 2: The ratio of market capitalization to household deposits stands at 73.2%, with a change of 15.7% during the current cycle, suggesting potential for further growth [5][19]. Group 2: Trading Activity - Indicator 3: Trading volume has increased from 1.6 trillion to a peak of 3.19 trillion, indicating a potential for further expansion as historical cycles have shown larger increases [6][22]. - Indicator 4: Trading congestion reached a maximum of 39.3%, up from 27.7%, reflecting a significant increase in trading activity [6][24]. - Indicator 5: The drawdown risk is currently at 5.9%, lower than previous cycles, while the profit-loss ratio is at 2.8, indicating a favorable risk-reward scenario [6][26]. Group 3: Capital Inflows - Indicator 6: Margin financing balance is at 2.24 trillion, a 1.21 times increase from the starting point, with room for growth compared to previous cycles [8][28]. - Indicator 7: The number of new accounts opened has seen limited growth, with a ratio of 1.0 compared to the starting month, indicating potential for future increases [8][30]. - Indicator 8: The issuance of equity funds has a ratio of 1.1 compared to the starting month, which is relatively low compared to historical data [8][32]. Group 4: Asset Valuation Comparisons - Indicator 9: The equity risk premium (ERP) has decreased by 1.58% during the current cycle, which is a lower decline compared to previous cycles [10][34]. - Indicator 10: The difference between equity yields and bond yields has decreased by 1.08%, but remains at a relatively high level compared to historical averages [10][36].

Group 1: Macro Indicators - The market capitalization to GDP ratio is currently at 85.6%, indicating room for improvement compared to historical peaks[4] - The market capitalization to household deposits ratio stands at 73.2%, suggesting potential for growth[4] - The change in market capitalization relative to GDP during this bull market is 18.5%, which is relatively low compared to past bull markets[4] Group 2: Trading Activity - The trading volume increased from 1.6 trillion to a peak of 3.19 trillion, representing a doubling in volume[5] - The maximum turnover rate reached 2.76%, an increase of 0.99% from the starting point, indicating potential for further growth[5] - The trading congestion ratio peaked at 39.3%, up 11.5% from the starting point, which is considered high[5] Group 3: Risk and Profitability - The drawdown risk is currently at 5.9%, significantly lower than previous bull markets which were above 10%[6] - The profit-loss ratio is at 2.8, indicating a favorable risk-reward scenario, although there is still room for improvement compared to the 2014-2015 period[6] Group 4: Capital Inflows - The margin financing balance reached 2.24 trillion, a 21% increase from the starting point of 1.85 trillion[7] - The number of new accounts opened during this bull market peaked at 196.4 million, showing limited growth compared to previous bull markets[7] - The issuance of equity funds has a ratio of 1.1 compared to the starting month, which is relatively low compared to past bull markets[7] Group 5: Valuation Comparisons - The equity risk premium (ERP) has decreased by 1.58% during this bull market, which is considered a low decline compared to historical data[11] - The equity-bond yield spread has decreased by 1.08%, but remains at a relatively high level compared to previous periods[11]