Core Viewpoint - The report highlights key indicators to monitor during a bull market, emphasizing macroeconomic metrics, trading activity, capital inflows, and asset valuation comparisons [2][3]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Indicators - Indicator 1: The ratio of market capitalization to GDP is currently at 85.6%, with a change of 18.5% from the start to the end of the current market cycle, indicating room for improvement compared to historical highs [5][16]. - Indicator 2: The ratio of market capitalization to household deposits stands at 73.2%, with a change of 15.7% during the current cycle, suggesting potential for further growth [5][19]. Group 2: Trading Activity - Indicator 3: Trading volume has increased from 1.6 trillion to a peak of 3.19 trillion, indicating a potential for further expansion as historical cycles have shown larger increases [6][22]. - Indicator 4: Trading congestion reached a maximum of 39.3%, up from 27.7%, reflecting a significant increase in trading activity [6][24]. - Indicator 5: The drawdown risk is currently at 5.9%, lower than previous cycles, while the profit-loss ratio is at 2.8, indicating a favorable risk-reward scenario [6][26]. Group 3: Capital Inflows - Indicator 6: Margin financing balance is at 2.24 trillion, a 1.21 times increase from the starting point, with room for growth compared to previous cycles [8][28]. - Indicator 7: The number of new accounts opened has seen limited growth, with a ratio of 1.0 compared to the starting month, indicating potential for future increases [8][30]. - Indicator 8: The issuance of equity funds has a ratio of 1.1 compared to the starting month, which is relatively low compared to historical data [8][32]. Group 4: Asset Valuation Comparisons - Indicator 9: The equity risk premium (ERP) has decreased by 1.58% during the current cycle, which is a lower decline compared to previous cycles [10][34]. - Indicator 10: The difference between equity yields and bond yields has decreased by 1.08%, but remains at a relatively high level compared to historical averages [10][36].

❖ 二、类别 1：宏观眼中的体量 （一）观测指标 1：市值与 GDP 之比：其代表的一国经济的证券化率。就高 点而言，此前在 2007 年 10 月、2015 年 6 月，比值曾超过 1，当前截至 8 月 29 日，比值为 85.6%。就变化而言，以行情终点的比值减去行情起点的比值， 本轮行情比值变化为 18.5%，尚属于历次行情中比值变化幅度中偏低的一次。 （二）观测指标 2：市值与居民存款之比：截至 8 月 29 日，市值与居民存款 之比为 73.2%，或尚有提升空间。就变化而言，以终点处市值与居民存款之比 减去起点处市值与居民存款之比，本轮行情截至 8 月 29 日，变化幅度为 15.7%， 属于历次行情中偏低的一次。 宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 牛市进程：十大观察指标 ❖ 本篇报告回答牛市行情（指数上涨超过 20%，技术层面属于牛市阶段）下， 值得关注的观察指标。从宏观视角，关注市值体量（与 GDP 之比、与居民存 款之比）；从交易视角，关注交易热度（成交额、拥挤度、回撤风险等）；从资 金视角，关注增量资金是否在持续涌入（两融、开户、偏股型基金发行）；从 资产比较视角，关注股与债的 ...