证 券 研 究 报 告 人民币升值期间大类资产复盘 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20260116-20260123) 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 王胜 A0230511060001 2026.1.25 报告摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 全球资本市场回顾：本周 (20260116-20260123)全球地缘政治冲突加剧，贵金属继续上行。1）固收方面，10Y美债收益率在4.2%的水平， 美元指数下行1.88%；2）权益方面，本周上证指数整体上行，中证1000和科创50涨幅靠前，上证50跌幅较大；全球市场中巴西、阿根廷股 价涨幅较大，其中A股行业中建筑材料，石油石化、钢铁涨幅靠前，银行跌幅较大；港股耐用消费品领涨；3）商品方面，本周黄金上涨8.3%， 主要是因为地缘政治冲突集中爆发。 ◼ 全球资本市场回顾：本周 (20260116-20260123)全球地缘政治冲突加剧，贵金属继续上行。1）固收方面，10Y美债收益率维持在4.2%的水平，美元指数下行 1.88%；2）权益方面，本周上证 ...

成交活跃度下降，中证 1000 估值领涨 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) ——情绪与估值 1 月第 3 期 本报告导读： 上周（2026/1/19-2026/1/23）成交活跃度下降，中证 1000 领涨。宽基指数：估值涨 跌互现，中证 1000 领涨。行业指数：PE 估值纺织服装，PB 估值石油石化领涨。情 绪：交易活跃度下降，换手率涨跌互现，成交额全面下降。ERP：环比下降。 投资要点： 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.25 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 李健(分析师) | | | 010-83939798 | | | lijian8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070013 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 AI 硬件景气强化，科技制造出海延续 2026.01.22 基金增配资源、硬科技与非银 2026.01.22 资产概览：贵金属与日韩权益领涨 2026.01.19 主动外资大幅流入 A ...

成交活跃度上升，创业板指估值领涨 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) ——情绪与估值 1 月第 2 期 本报告导读： 上周（2026/1/12-2026/1/16）成交活跃度上升，创业板指领涨。宽基指数：估值全面 上涨，创业板指领涨。行业指数：PE 估值传媒，PB 估值电力及公用事业领涨。情 绪：交易活跃度上升，换手率涨跌互现，成交额全面上升。ERP：环比上升。 投资要点： 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.18 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 李健(分析师) | | | 010-83939798 | | | lijian8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070013 | 美国对委特别行动，伊朗局势悄然生变 2026.01.15 新兴科技景气延续，周期资源价格上涨 2026.01.14 融资资金大幅流入，外资重回流入 A 股 2026.01.12 成交活跃度上升，中证 1000 估值领涨 2026.01.11 元旦 ...

Core Insights - GoodDay Software has raised an additional $7 million in funding, bringing its total capital raised to $13.5 million, with participation from both new and existing investors [1][7]. Company Overview - GoodDay Software is developing GoodDayOS™, an AI-native ERP alternative tailored for inventory-driven Shopify brands, contrasting with traditional ERP systems designed for manufacturers and accountants [2][8]. - The company aims to provide a unified system for managing inventory, purchase orders, landed costs, presales, and multi-channel operations, allowing brands to launch quickly and at a lower total cost of ownership compared to traditional ERP platforms [3][8]. Product Development - GoodDay has focused on creating a reliable system for inventory and operational data, with plans to introduce GoodAI Agentic Workflows and Agents in 2026, which will enhance operational efficiency by actively assisting operators [4][7]. - The new funding will facilitate the expansion of GoodDayOS™ into finance and accounting operations, as well as deeper integrations within the Shopify ecosystem [7]. Market Position - More than 40 Shopify brands, including notable names like Lola Blankets and Halfdays, are currently utilizing GoodDay's platform, indicating strong market adoption [5]. - The company is recognized for its innovative approach to inventory management, which is considered the most complex aspect of retail operations, setting it apart from other next-gen ERP solutions [8].

Summary of the Conference Call for Changjie Tong Company Overview - **Company**: Changjie Tong - **Industry**: SaaS (Software as a Service) and AI integration in financial and accounting services Key Points AI Integration and Product Development - Changjie Tong integrates AI technology into its products through two main lines: "ERP + AI" and "AI native accounting products" [2][4] - The efficiency of invoice processing has improved by 80%, and order creation efficiency has increased by over 70% [2][5] - The AI native accounting product "Yibaoshui" significantly enhances accounting efficiency, allowing customer managers to handle 1,500-2,000 accounts compared to traditional accountants managing 150 sets of accounts [2][5] Financial Performance - In 2025, Changjie Tong achieved significant milestones in AI applications, becoming the first profitable To B SaaS company in the Hong Kong stock market, with net profit exceeding 80 million RMB, doubling for two consecutive years [3] - The number of new paying users reached 186,000, a year-on-year increase of 30% [3] Market Strategy and User Engagement - The company plans to evolve from "ERP + AI" to "AI + ERP," optimizing intelligent agent functions and expanding the user base for Yibaoshui [2][7] - The pricing strategy for SaaS tools has increased, with annualized prices rising from 1,800 RMB to over 1,900 RMB for channel distribution, and from 1,100 RMB to 1,400 RMB for direct sales teams [4][21] Competitive Advantages - Changjie Tong's unique advantages include a fully automated accounting and tax reporting system and a highly integrated BaaS and SaaS service model [12] - The company has accumulated extensive data analysis experience, which helps in optimizing AI models to better understand ERP forms and business objects [12][14] Future Goals and Development Plans - The goal for 2026 is to further advance towards AI native ERP, establishing a knowledge graph to enable the AI model to understand ERP products and customer needs dynamically [11] - The company aims to enhance customer service quality through a smart agent operation and evaluation system, achieving over 90% accuracy in user query responses [19] Customer Experience and Sales Strategy - Changjie Tong employs various strategies to promote AI products, including customer experience activities tailored to industry and regional characteristics [18] - The company focuses on building customer habits with its products before implementing pricing strategies, emphasizing the importance of user engagement over immediate price increases [21] AI Model Utilization - The company utilizes different AI models based on specific scenarios, such as Deepseek and Tongyi Qianwen for accounting tasks, and collaborates with Baidu and Tencent for customer service and form recognition [16] Revenue Model and Market Penetration - The primary revenue source remains from SaaS, with BaaS services provided directly by AI [10] - By the end of 2025, over 100,000 enterprises were using more than 50 intelligent agents, with a notable agent processing over 3 million bank receipt recognitions in December [10] Additional Insights - The company is focused on addressing the needs of small and micro enterprises for efficient and automated financial services, indicating a strong market demand for such solutions [8][9] - Changjie Tong's approach to AI integration and product development positions it well for future growth and market leadership in the SaaS and AI sectors [12][15]

证 券 研 究 报 告 成交活跃度上升，中证 1000 估值领涨 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) ——情绪与估值 1 月第 1 期 本报告导读： 上周（2026/01/05-2026/01/09）成交活跃度上升，中证 1000 领涨。宽基指数：估值 全面上涨，中证 1000 领涨。行业指数：PE 估值家电，PB 估值煤炭领涨。情绪：交 易活跃度上升，换手率全面上涨，成交额全面上涨。ERP：环比下降。 投资要点： | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 李健(分析师) | | | 010-83939798 | | | lijian8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070013 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 元旦文旅景气增长，科技周期延续涨价 2026.01.07 周期资源品价格上涨，科技硬件景气延续 2025.12.31 资产概览：全球风偏修复，商品权益齐涨 2025.12.29 融资资金大幅流入，外资与 ETF 持续流入 A ...

Market Overview - The significant drop in precious metals was driven by the Federal Reserve's internal disagreements on interest rate cuts for 2026 and the CME's increase in futures margin requirements[3] - Gold prices fell by 4.79% during the week, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.19%, an increase of 5 basis points[3][15] Capital Flows - Domestic capital inflow into the Chinese stock market was $4.99 million, while foreign capital outflow amounted to $0.65 million in the past week[3] - Global funds saw inflows into money market funds, with U.S. equity markets receiving $11.6 million in inflows[20] Valuation Metrics - The A-share equity risk premium (ERP) slightly decreased but remains at a historically neutral level, with the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation at the 87.8 percentile over the past decade[3][19] - The risk-adjusted return percentile for the Shanghai Composite Index increased from 92% to 94%[3] Risk Sentiment - The VIX index for U.S. stocks showed a slight decrease, indicating a marginally improved risk sentiment, while the Chinese options market displayed increasing divergence in capital positioning[3][19] - The S&P 500 closed at 6858, below the 20-day moving average, with an implied volatility trend on the rise[3] Economic Data - The U.S. unemployment claims significantly dropped, indicating a potential cooling in the economy, while inflation expectations for the U.S. are trending downward[3][19] - The probability of maintaining the current interest rate range of 3.5%-3.75% increased to 83.40% as of January 3, 2026, up from 82.30% the previous week[3]

Market Overview - The US 10-year Treasury yield decreased to 4.14%, down 2 basis points, while the US dollar index fell by 0.69% to 98.0[3] - The A-share market saw all indices rise, with the ChiNext Index, CSI 1000, and STAR 50 leading the gains[3] - Gold prices increased by 4.24% this week, driven by a short squeeze in silver, leading precious metals to outperform global assets[3] Capital Flows - In the week ending December 24, 2025, foreign capital inflows into the Chinese stock market totaled $12.6 billion, while domestic capital inflows reached $71.32 billion[3] - The US stock market saw a significant inflow of $222.6 billion into fixed income funds, while Chinese equity markets attracted $83.9 billion[16] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is at the 87.5th percentile over the past decade, trailing only the S&P 500 and CAC 40[3] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for A-shares slightly decreased but remains at a historically neutral level[15] Risk Sentiment - The implied volatility of the CSI 300 index has shown a low recovery, indicating a more optimistic pricing of volatility compared to the previous week[3] - The put-call ratio for the S&P 500 increased to 1.08, reflecting a slight rise in bearish sentiment[3] Economic Data - The US consumer confidence index fell significantly to 51.0, indicating a cooling economy[3] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in January 2026 increased to 82.3%, up from 77.9% the previous week[3]

Core Insights - The report indicates a decline in trading activity during the week of December 15-19, 2025, with the CSI 300 index leading the gains among broad indices [1] - Valuations showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 index leading in both PE and PB metrics [1] - The report highlights that the agricultural sector led in PE valuation, while the transportation sector led in PB valuation [1] Valuation Summary - Broad indices experienced mixed valuation changes, with the CSI 300 index increasing by 0.6% in PE-TTM historical percentile and 4.1% in PB-LF historical percentile [4] - Among style indices, financial style led with a 2.9% increase in PE-TTM historical percentile [4] - The agricultural sector saw a 1.2% increase in PE-TTM historical percentile, while the transportation sector led with a 5.4% increase in PB-LF historical percentile [4][5] Sentiment Analysis - Trading activity decreased, with turnover rates and transaction volumes declining across all indices [4] - The turnover rate for the Wind All A index fell by 6.0%, while the transaction volume decreased by 9.9% [4][29] - As of December 18, 2025, the margin trading balance was 2.50 trillion, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.08% compared to the previous week [4][31] ERP Analysis - The report notes that the risk premium (ERP) for the Wind All A index remained stable at 4.26% as of December 19, 2025 [4][7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record quarterly revenue of $2.3 billion, a 5.4% year-over-year increase, driven by 4.8% organic growth and a modest contribution from a recent acquisition in Ireland [16] - Adjusted EPS was $0.88, reflecting a $0.26 headwind from prior-year self-insurance adjustments, indicating strong underlying performance when adjusted [18] - Adjusted EBITDA was $124.2 million with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.6%, compared to $125.6 million and 6% in the prior year [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Business and Industry (B&I) revenue surpassed $1 billion, up 2% year-over-year, with operating profit of $80.6 million and a margin of 7.7% [19] - Aviation revenue grew 7% to $296.7 million, with an operating profit of $16.8 million and a margin of 5.7% [20] - Manufacturing and Distribution (M&D) revenue increased 8% to $417.4 million, with an operating profit of $35.8 million and a margin of 8.6% [20] - Education revenue rose 2% to $233.7 million, with operating profit increasing 44% to $18.8 million and margins expanding to 8% [21] - Technical Solutions revenue increased 16% to $298.7 million, with an operating profit of $37.1 million and a margin of 12.4% [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong demand across key end markets, particularly in technical solutions, aviation, and manufacturing and distribution, indicating a healthy market environment heading into fiscal 2026 [12] - The acquisition of WGNSTAR is expected to significantly enhance the company's position in the semiconductor market, which is experiencing multi-year growth [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing its portfolio and expanding technical and data-enabled capabilities, aiming to evolve into a higher-growth organization [31] - The acquisition of WGNSTAR is seen as a strategic move to penetrate the semiconductor sector more deeply, leveraging existing client relationships and expanding service offerings [40][82] - The company plans to continue investing in AI capabilities and technology to improve operational efficiency and unlock new revenue streams [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's momentum heading into fiscal 2026, expecting organic revenue growth of 3%-4% and adjusted EPS in the range of $3.85-$4.15 [13][25] - The restructuring program is expected to yield annual savings of $35 million, with most benefits realized in fiscal 2026 [11] - Management highlighted the importance of disciplined cost management and operational efficiency in navigating a complex operating environment [12] Other Important Information - The company ended the year with total indebtedness of $1.6 billion and available liquidity of $681.6 million [22] - Free cash flow for the fourth quarter was $112.7 million, a significant improvement from the prior year [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Margin trajectory and segment operating margin - Management introduced a new segment operating margin metric to better reflect operational health, indicating a blend of restructuring benefits and pricing decisions affecting margins [34][36] Question: Strategic attraction of the WGNSTAR deal - The acquisition is strategically compelling due to the growth potential in the semiconductor space, with expectations for accretion in year two driven by growth and margin expansion [38][42] Question: Pricing concessions in the B&I business - Pricing discussions have stabilized, with no dramatic changes noted in the fourth quarter compared to previous quarters [48][50] Question: ERP roadmap and free cash flow outlook - The majority of transactions are now on the new ERP system, with a target of around $250 million in normalized cash flow for the upcoming year [51][53] Question: Self-insurance adjustments impact - The prior-year self-insurance adjustments are within industry standards, with no significant changes expected moving forward [70][73] Question: Future M&A opportunities - The company is actively looking for acquisition opportunities that align with strategic growth areas, maintaining a balanced approach to leverage [97]