成交活跃度上升，上证 50 跌幅最小 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) ——情绪与估值 11 月第 4 期 本报告导读： 上周（2025/11/17-2025/11/21）成交活跃度上升，上证 50 估值降幅最小。宽基指数： 估值全面下降，上证 50 跌幅最小。行业指数：PE 估值通信，PB 估值石油石化领 涨。情绪：交易活跃度上升，换手率全面上升，成交额全面下降。ERP：环比上升。 投资要点： | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 李健(分析师) | | | 010-83939798 | | | lijian8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070013 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 美国政府停摆结束，联储降息预期放缓 2025.11.19 资产概览：美联储降息预期出现逆转 2025.11.18 科技制造供需紧张，消费出行景气改善 2025.11.18 融资资金流入加速，外资流入放缓 2025.11.17 成交活跃度上升， ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 2025.11.23 报告摘要 降息预期波动加大，美元走强使全球权益回调 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251114-20251121) 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 涂锦文 A0230525070006 王胜 A0230511060001 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 全球资本市场回顾：本周(20251114-20251021)美国9月新增非农就业人数录得11.9万人，预期5.1万人大幅超预期，但失业率上升至4.4%，市场对美联储的降息预期波动加大， 美元指数上行0.87%，当前点位为100.2。本周全球风险资产多数下跌，其中权益资产多数跌幅明显。1）固收方面，10Y美债收益率录得4.06%，本周下降8BPs，美元指数上行 0.87%，当前点位为100.2，弱美元暂时结束；2）权益方面，本周A股指数尽数下跌，北证50和恒生科技领跌市场；全球市场中除去胡志明和印度Sensex指数，其余市场均出现明 显下跌；3）商品方面，本周黄金和原油均出现下跌，美元计价下，Co ...

This story was originally published on CFO Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily CFO Dive newsletter. In the face of an ongoing shortage of talent and evolving technologies that promise to remove some of the pain points of historically manual processes, today’s finance chiefs are starting to think differently about how they search for accounting professionals. CFOs today are “very focused on systems forward accountants in the hiring process,” John Glasgow, CEO, CFO and fou ...

Core Insights - The article discusses how AI is transforming the ERP landscape, with SAP's new strategy emphasizing "AI-first, suite-first" to lead growth in the AI era [2][4][5] - SAP's Business Suite is positioned as essential for successful AI application, integrating AI capabilities into workflows and collaborating with external systems [2][6] Industry Trends - AI is pushing the ERP industry from "tool standardization" to "value scenario" transformation, highlighting the need for dynamic responses rather than rigid processes [4][5] - Major ERP players are adapting to AI, with Microsoft Dynamics 365 focusing on human-machine collaboration, while Infor targets cost reduction in manufacturing [5][6] SAP's Strategy - SAP aims to embed more AI capabilities within its platform while allowing third-party AI agents to integrate directly with its processes through open APIs [5][6] - The company recognizes the importance of balancing core stability with external flexibility to avoid being outpaced by AI tools [6][9] Market Positioning - SAP's approach to AI and cloud migration is tailored to the unique demands of the Chinese market, where local enterprises show strong motivation to adopt new technologies [10][11] - The collaboration with Alibaba Cloud is seen as a strategic move to enhance service delivery and support local enterprises in their digital transformation [15][18] Customer Engagement - Many CEOs express anxiety about missing out on AI advancements, prompting SAP to guide clients in understanding the long-term value of AI and the importance of foundational digital transformation [13][14] - SAP's value proposition lies in its ability to standardize and structure data at the source, reducing the burden of manual data cleaning [14] Organizational Evolution - The new leadership at SAP China emphasizes the need for rapid adaptation and learning within the team to meet the fast-paced changes in the AI landscape [17][18] - The focus is on creating an open technical ecosystem that allows for better integration with local AI companies and enhances the capabilities of developers [18]

Core Conclusions - The overall valuation of A-shares has contracted this week, with the banking sector leading the gains. The previous dominance of the technology growth sector led to a continuous outflow of funds from the banking sector, resulting in a significant correction. Currently, the banking sector, which has defensive attributes, is experiencing a recovery phase. The overall PB (LF) of the banking industry is at the historical 22.8 percentile, indicating substantial room for recovery [1][8]. Valuation Overview - The overall PE (TTM) of A-shares decreased from 22.47 times last week to 22.00 times this week, while the PB (LF) fell from 1.81 times to 1.77 times [10]. - The overall dynamic PE of key A-share companies dropped from 15.19 times to 14.93 times [14]. A-Share Valuation Details - The PE (TTM) of the main board decreased from 17.90 times to 17.71 times, and the PB (LF) fell from 1.51 times to 1.49 times [17][18]. - The PE (TTM) of the ChiNext board decreased from 97.70 times to 75.51 times, and the PB (LF) dropped from 4.38 times to 4.15 times [19][20]. - The PE (TTM) of the Sci-Tech Innovation board decreased from 258.35 times to 246.87 times, and the PB (LF) fell from 5.46 times to 5.14 times [21][22]. Relative Valuation Expansion - The relative PE (TTM) of computing power infrastructure, excluding operators/resources, decreased from 5.41 times to 5.09 times, and the relative PB (LF) fell from 5.04 times to 4.74 times [23][25]. Industry Valuation Levels - From a static PE (TTM) perspective, industries such as consumer discretionary, midstream manufacturing, consumer staples, cyclical, and midstream materials have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, with consumer discretionary and midstream manufacturing exceeding the historical 90th percentile. Conversely, resource and essential consumer sectors have absolute and relative valuations below the historical median, with services and essential consumer sectors below the historical 10th percentile [27][28]. - In terms of PB (LF), resource, TMT, and cyclical industries have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, while midstream materials, financial services, services, consumer staples, and essential consumer sectors have absolute and relative valuations below the historical median, with essential consumer sectors below the historical 10th percentile [28]. Dynamic Valuation Analysis - From a dynamic PE perspective, industries such as consumer discretionary, midstream manufacturing, and cyclical sectors have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, with consumer discretionary exceeding the historical 90th percentile. Essential consumer sectors have both absolute and relative valuations below the historical median, with essential consumer relative valuations below the historical 10th percentile [36]. Comparative Analysis of Odds and Winning Rates - Industries such as oil and petrochemicals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, telecommunications, and public utilities exhibit characteristics of low valuation and high profitability [58]. - Industries like building materials, electrical equipment, basic chemicals, and media show both low valuations and high performance growth [62]. ERP and Equity-Debt Yield Spread - The non-financial ERP of A-shares increased from 0.81% last week to 0.92% this week, while the equity-debt yield spread improved from -0.21% to -0.06% [63]. - The dynamic ERP of key non-financial A-share companies rose from 2.77% to 2.96% [68].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious subscription for the company, 聚水潭 (6687.HK) [1][3] Core Insights - 聚水潭, established in 2014, has become the largest e-commerce SaaS and ERP provider in China, holding a market share of 24.4% in the e-commerce SaaS market and 8.7% in the overall SaaS market by 2024 [2][3] - The Chinese e-commerce market has rapidly evolved, with online retail sales expected to grow from RMB 11.8 trillion in 2020 to RMB 16.5 trillion in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9% [2] - The company's total revenue and SaaS product turnover reached RMB 9.1 billion and RMB 13.0 billion respectively in 2024, with CAGRs of 31.9% and 32.6% from 2022 to 2024 [3] - The company transitioned from a net loss of RMB 4.9 billion in 2024 to a net profit of RMB 10.58 million in the same year, improving its net profit margin from a loss rate of 70.3% in 2023 to a profit margin of 1.2% in 2024 [3] - The estimated market capitalization post-IPO is approximately HKD 10.4 billion, with a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of about 10.0X based on 2024 revenue [3] Summary by Sections IPO Details - The IPO price is set at HKD 30.60, with a total fundraising amount of HKD 19.38 billion [1] - The total number of shares offered is 6.817 million, with 90% allocated for international placement and 10% for public offering [1] Company Overview - 聚水潭 has expanded its workforce from 9 employees at inception to over 2,500, establishing more than 100 offline service points across over 500 towns in China [2] - The company provides a comprehensive suite of SaaS products and services aimed at enhancing business capabilities and reducing operational costs for clients [3]

Core Conclusions - The overall valuation of A-shares has expanded this week, with the non-ferrous metals industry continuing to lead the market [1] - During the National Day holiday, favorable factors for the non-ferrous industry have emerged, contributing to its ongoing leadership [1] - The current overall PB (LF) of the non-ferrous metals industry is at the historical 87.8 percentile, with specific sectors like copper, aluminum, lithium, and gold at 92.1%, 96.3%, 40.7%, and 83.6% percentiles respectively, indicating greater valuation upside potential for lithium [1] A-share Valuation Overview - The overall PE (TTM) of A-shares increased from 22.36 times last week to 22.78 times this week, while PB (LF) rose from 2.17 times to 2.21 times [10] - The PE (TTM) of the ChiNext board increased from 81.61 times to 82.22 times, while its PB (LF) remained stable at 4.88 times [19] - The PE (TTM) of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board rose from 272.77 times to 276.66 times, with PB (LF) increasing from 6.72 times to 6.81 times [21] Industry Valuation Levels - From a static PE (TTM) perspective, major industries such as consumer discretionary, midstream manufacturing, and cyclical sectors have absolute and relative valuations above historical medians, with consumer discretionary and midstream manufacturing exceeding the 90th percentile [27] - In terms of PB (LF), TMT, midstream manufacturing, and consumer discretionary also show absolute and relative valuations above historical medians, while financial services and consumer staples are below historical medians [29] - The overall valuation of key companies in A-shares based on dynamic PE increased from 15.17 times to 15.19 times this week [14] Relative Valuation Expansion - The relative PE (TTM) for computing infrastructure, excluding operators and resource categories, decreased from 5.80 times to 5.66 times, while relative PB (LF) fell from 5.69 times to 5.54 times [23] - The current comparison of odds (PB historical percentiles) and win rates (ROE historical percentiles) indicates that industries like oil and petrochemicals, as well as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, exhibit characteristics of low valuation and high profitability [2] ERP and Equity-Debt Yield Spread - The non-financial ERP of A-shares decreased from 0.80% to 0.76%, while the equity-debt yield spread fell from -0.19% to -0.24% [60] - The dynamic ERP of key non-financial companies in A-shares increased from 2.76% to 2.77% this week [64]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights key indicators to monitor during a bull market, emphasizing macroeconomic metrics, trading activity, capital inflows, and asset valuation comparisons [2][3]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Indicators - Indicator 1: The ratio of market capitalization to GDP is currently at 85.6%, with a change of 18.5% from the start to the end of the current market cycle, indicating room for improvement compared to historical highs [5][16]. - Indicator 2: The ratio of market capitalization to household deposits stands at 73.2%, with a change of 15.7% during the current cycle, suggesting potential for further growth [5][19]. Group 2: Trading Activity - Indicator 3: Trading volume has increased from 1.6 trillion to a peak of 3.19 trillion, indicating a potential for further expansion as historical cycles have shown larger increases [6][22]. - Indicator 4: Trading congestion reached a maximum of 39.3%, up from 27.7%, reflecting a significant increase in trading activity [6][24]. - Indicator 5: The drawdown risk is currently at 5.9%, lower than previous cycles, while the profit-loss ratio is at 2.8, indicating a favorable risk-reward scenario [6][26]. Group 3: Capital Inflows - Indicator 6: Margin financing balance is at 2.24 trillion, a 1.21 times increase from the starting point, with room for growth compared to previous cycles [8][28]. - Indicator 7: The number of new accounts opened has seen limited growth, with a ratio of 1.0 compared to the starting month, indicating potential for future increases [8][30]. - Indicator 8: The issuance of equity funds has a ratio of 1.1 compared to the starting month, which is relatively low compared to historical data [8][32]. Group 4: Asset Valuation Comparisons - Indicator 9: The equity risk premium (ERP) has decreased by 1.58% during the current cycle, which is a lower decline compared to previous cycles [10][34]. - Indicator 10: The difference between equity yields and bond yields has decreased by 1.08%, but remains at a relatively high level compared to historical averages [10][36].

Group 1: Macro Indicators - The market capitalization to GDP ratio is currently at 85.6%, indicating room for improvement compared to historical peaks[4] - The market capitalization to household deposits ratio stands at 73.2%, suggesting potential for growth[4] - The change in market capitalization relative to GDP during this bull market is 18.5%, which is relatively low compared to past bull markets[4] Group 2: Trading Activity - The trading volume increased from 1.6 trillion to a peak of 3.19 trillion, representing a doubling in volume[5] - The maximum turnover rate reached 2.76%, an increase of 0.99% from the starting point, indicating potential for further growth[5] - The trading congestion ratio peaked at 39.3%, up 11.5% from the starting point, which is considered high[5] Group 3: Risk and Profitability - The drawdown risk is currently at 5.9%, significantly lower than previous bull markets which were above 10%[6] - The profit-loss ratio is at 2.8, indicating a favorable risk-reward scenario, although there is still room for improvement compared to the 2014-2015 period[6] Group 4: Capital Inflows - The margin financing balance reached 2.24 trillion, a 21% increase from the starting point of 1.85 trillion[7] - The number of new accounts opened during this bull market peaked at 196.4 million, showing limited growth compared to previous bull markets[7] - The issuance of equity funds has a ratio of 1.1 compared to the starting month, which is relatively low compared to past bull markets[7] Group 5: Valuation Comparisons - The equity risk premium (ERP) has decreased by 1.58% during this bull market, which is considered a low decline compared to historical data[11] - The equity-bond yield spread has decreased by 1.08%, but remains at a relatively high level compared to previous periods[11]

Summary of Kingdee International Conference Call Company Overview - Kingdee International is transitioning from traditional financial software to cloud services, integrating the cloud computing industry chain to provide comprehensive enterprise management software services, leading the enterprise management SaaS market [2][3][4] Key Financial Metrics - In the first half of 2025, Kingdee's revenue from cloud services reached 850 million RMB, with subscription revenue accounting for approximately 33% [2][10] - Total revenue for 2024 is projected to exceed 6 billion RMB, with traditional ERP products contributing 1.1 billion RMB (18%) and cloud services contributing 82% [2][11] - Subscription revenue for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 1.68 billion RMB, representing 53% of total revenue [2][11] - The company anticipates achieving breakeven in 2025, with operating cash flow expected to exceed 1 billion RMB [4][21] Product Lines and Market Segmentation - Kingdee offers various ERP products tailored to different enterprise sizes: - Large enterprises: Kingdee Cloud · Cang Qiong and Kingdee Cloud · Xing Han, accounting for nearly 30% of cloud service revenue [2][10] - Medium enterprises: Kingdee Cloud · Xing Kong, which constitutes over 40% of cloud service revenue, with a subscription revenue growth of 19% and a renewal rate of 94% [2][12] - Small and micro enterprises: Kingdee Cloud · Xing Chen and Kingdee Cloud · Jin Dou, representing approximately 25%-30% of business, with renewal rates of 93% and 88% respectively [12] AI Integration and Innovations - Kingdee is actively embracing AI, launching Agent Platform 2.0 and several AI products, achieving an AI contract amount of 150 million RMB, indicating significant potential in the enterprise service sector [2][14][21] - The integration of AI with ERP systems is expected to enhance decision-making efficiency and optimize resource allocation [6][16] Market Trends and Growth Opportunities - The global ERP market is estimated to be between 60 to 80 billion USD, with the Chinese market ranging from 60 to 100 billion RMB, both growing at over 10% annually [2][18] - The shift of large state-owned enterprises from foreign ERP systems to domestic solutions like Kingdee is expected to drive demand [19] - The increasing need for digital transformation across various industries, including retail, e-commerce, and finance, presents a broad market opportunity for Kingdee [6][7] Competitive Position and Valuation - Kingdee maintains a leading market share and is well-positioned to capitalize on the transition to cloud and AI technologies [5][24] - The company's current valuation is approximately 7 times PS, with potential for improvement compared to US SaaS companies, which average around 10 times PS [4][24] - Future valuation growth will depend on achieving breakeven, business upgrades, increased AI contributions, and overseas expansion [24][25] Conclusion - Kingdee International is poised for significant growth driven by its cloud service transition, AI integration, and expanding market opportunities, particularly in the context of increasing domestic demand and global expansion efforts [22][23]