26 年长协电比例预计将降低 [Table_Industry] 公用事业 股票研究 / [Table_Date] 2025.12.01 2025-12-01 本报告导读： 在市值考核的背景下，国央企股价偏弱的或都有回购的诉求，火电也有提分红或者 回购增持的可能。 究 [table_Authors] 投资要点： 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 [Table_Summary] 江苏 12 月集中竞价交易价格回落至 0.340 元/度（11 月 0.356 元/ 度），安徽机制电价 0.38 元/度。我们认为担忧南方符合基本面，北 方会好一些，预计电价跌幅有限，北方部分省市甚至能上涨，预计 长协签订后行业估值会好转，近期风光公司开始增持：三峡集团 10 月 9 日-11 月 21 日增持总股本的 0.03%，累计增持达总股本 0.65%； 宁德时代参股大渡河丹巴水电站，持股 10%。在市值考核的背景下， 国央企股价偏弱的或都有回购的诉求，火电也有提分红或者回购增 持的可能。 截止 10 月底，全国累计发电装机容量 37.5 亿千瓦，YOY+17.3%，光 伏 / ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the utility sector, indicating potential for increased dividends and capital expenditure reductions, which could lead to share buybacks [2][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the surge in electricity consumption by 8.6% in July 2025 is expected to continue into Q3, improving fixed costs for coal power [5]. - It notes that the increase in dividend rates by GD Power Development from 50% to 60% and the share buyback plans from major shareholders signal a competitive environment among thermal power companies [5]. - The report emphasizes the ample cash flow in the electricity sector, suggesting numerous investment opportunities [2][5]. Summary by Sections - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Index surpassed 3800 points, with the power sector expected to follow the trend seen in 2014-2015 after the internet boom [5]. - **Electricity Consumption**: By July 2025, total electricity consumption reached 1.02 trillion kWh, with significant year-over-year increases across various sectors [5]. - **Power Market Reforms**: Multiple regions are advancing power spot market reforms, with trials for continuous settlement underway in several provinces [5]. - **External Power Supply**: Zhejiang province has increased its external power supply, purchasing an additional 4.4 million kW from other regions [5]. - **Energy Storage Growth**: In H1 2025, new energy storage installations reached 23.03 GW, with a projected compound annual growth rate of over 20% for the next five years [5]. - **Peak Load Records**: Jiangsu province's peak load hit a record 155 million kW, with significant contributions from wind and solar power [5].