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中国船舶(600150):业绩符合预期,301新方案对船厂影响弱化,PO估值接近历史底部
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-05-05 15:28
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its performance relative to the market [6]. Core Views - The company's performance aligns with expectations, with a reported revenue of 78.584 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a 5% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 3.614 billion yuan, which is a 22% increase [6]. - The impact of the new 301 plan on shipyards has significantly weakened, with expectations for new order volumes and ship prices to stabilize and rise [6]. - The report highlights a dual improvement in revenue and costs, validating profit elasticity, with a projected increase in net profit for 2025 to 7.029 billion yuan, representing a 94.5% year-on-year growth [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are set at 81.617 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9% [2]. - The expected net profit for 2025 is 7.029 billion yuan, with a significant increase in earnings per share to 1.57 yuan [2]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve to 15.5% by 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 12.4% [2]. Market Data - As of April 30, 2025, the closing price of the stock was 29.28 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 36 [3]. - The company has a market capitalization of approximately 130.953 billion yuan, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.5 [3]. - The stock has shown a dividend yield of 0.68%, based on the most recent dividend announcements [3].