1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The "anti - involution" sentiment has affected the black metal market. For different products, the market situation and influencing factors vary. Although the "anti - involution" has catalyzed short - term market fluctuations, the actual supply and demand fundamentals and policy expectations still play important roles in determining the market trends [5][7][64][111] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. PART ONE: Rebar - **Supply**: It is neutral. Iron - water production decreased slightly this week. Long - process steel mills still have good profits, and short - process production may fluctuate due to the power peak season. The supply of steel products is expected to remain stable with a slight decline, and attention should be paid to administrative production restrictions [7] - **Demand**: It is neutral. Market fluctuations have increased recently, and the demand for some steel products is slightly stronger than others. The demand for hot - rolled, cold - rolled, and medium - thick plates is better than in previous years, while the demand for building materials is slightly weaker. The coal - coke price is firm, but the coal price may lack the momentum to continue rising [7] - **Inventory**: It is bullish. The total inventory level is low, and the inventory accumulation during the off - season is not significant, which may trigger unexpected restocking [7] - **Basis/Spread**: It is bearish. The basis has shrunk significantly, and the spot in some areas has returned to a discount. As of Friday, the basis of rb2510 in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 28, a decrease of 30 compared with the previous week [7] - **Profit**: It is bearish. Long - process steel production still has profits, while short - process production profits are unstable, and the production reduction has increased slightly [7] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The production links in the industry chain have meager profits, with relatively low relative valuations and absolute valuations not reaching the bottom [7] - **Macro and Policy**: It is bullish. Due to the expectations of domestic conferences in July and US interest rate cuts in September, market risk appetite has increased, and short - term funds are willing to enter the market [7] - **Investment View**: It is to wait and see. If no substantial policies are introduced in the short term, the positive impact on profits and product prices may not last long. The basis of black - sector varieties has been shrinking recently [7] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, observe the pressure level; for arbitrage, take profit on short - term long positions in the spread between hot - rolled and rebar; for cash - and - carry, take profit on reverse arbitrage and enter long positions in batches [7] 3.2. PART TWO: Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: It is neutral. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have both increased, but attention should be paid to whether the pressure on non - five - major steel products is increasing. The daily average iron - water production has decreased, and the steel - mill profitability rate is still good, but there are signs of weakening iron - water production [64] - **Coking Coal Supply**: It is neutral. Domestic coal mines are gradually resuming production, the port clearance has recovered slowly, and the sentiment in the seaborne coal market has improved [64] - **Coke Supply**: It is neutral. Coke production has continued to decline this week, and the coking profit has decreased. However, the spot sentiment of coal and coke has strengthened due to downstream restocking [64] - **Inventory**: It is bearish. Downstream procurement has started, but the rate of total inventory reduction has narrowed, and the overall fundamentals are gradually weakening [64] - **Basis/Spread**: It is bearish. Coke has not yet started to increase prices, and the warehouse - receipt cost has changed [64] - **Profit**: It is neutral. Steel - mill profitability is still good, but coking profit has decreased, and the cost of coking coal has increased [64] - **Summary**: It is bearish. Although the "anti - involution" policy has boosted market sentiment, the current situation is not comparable to the 2015 supply - side reform. The policy may lead to a reduction in demand rather than supply for the black - metal industry. The industry data shows signs of weakening, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and establish cash - and - carry positions for industrial customers [64] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, industrial customers should actively engage in cash - and - carry hedging; for arbitrage, wait and see. Pay attention to changes in coal - mine production policies, steel demand, and macro - level disturbances [64] 3.3. PART THREE: Iron Ore - **Supply**: It is neutral. The end - of - season rush for iron - ore shipments has ended, and shipments from Australia and Brazil have declined rapidly in the first week of July, while shipments from India have increased significantly. Seasonally, shipments will continue to decline in July, but the increase in arrivals in July will relieve the pressure on near - month contracts [112] - **Demand**: It is neutral. Steel - mill iron - water production has decreased significantly this week, mainly due to the decline in finished - product demand in some areas and seasonal blast - furnace inspections. It is expected that the daily average iron - water production will remain at a high level of around 240 in July. The demand for steel products has shown an off - season but not weak state recently, and the negative feedback logic based on weakening downstream demand has not been supported by current data [112] - **Inventory**: It is bearish. The inventory of 47 ports, the amount of ships waiting at ports, and the in - plant inventory have all increased, with a total inventory increase of 124 tons. There is still a risk of inventory accumulation with the decline in iron - water production and high arrivals [112] - **Profit**: It is neutral. Steel - mill profits are still at a high level, so the iron - water production can remain at a high level in the short term [112] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The iron - water production is at a high level, and the short - term valuation is relatively neutral [112] - **Summary**: It is neutral. The iron - water production has decreased significantly this week. The basis of iron ore has bottomed out and rebounded under the "anti - involution" trading sentiment. The "anti - involution" mainly affects the new - energy and photovoltaic industries, and its impact on the black - metal industry is mainly emotional. It is not recommended to short the black - metal market in the short term [112] - **Investment View**: It is to expect a sideways movement - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, wait and see temporarily. Pay attention to recession trading and the implementation of flat - control policies [113]