1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The "anti - involution" sentiment has affected the black metal market. For different products, the market situation and influencing factors vary. Although the "anti - involution" has catalyzed short - term market fluctuations, the actual supply and demand fundamentals and policy expectations still play important roles in determining the market trends [5][7][64][111] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. PART ONE: Rebar - **Supply**: It is neutral. Iron - water production decreased slightly this week. Long - process steel mills still have good profits, and short - process production may fluctuate due to the power peak season. The supply of steel products is expected to remain stable with a slight decline, and attention should be paid to administrative production restrictions [7] - **Demand**: It is neutral. Market fluctuations have increased recently, and the demand for some steel products is slightly stronger than others. The demand for hot - rolled, cold - rolled, and medium - thick plates is better than in previous years, while the demand for building materials is slightly weaker. The coal - coke price is firm, but the coal price may lack the momentum to continue rising [7] - **Inventory**: It is bullish. The total inventory level is low, and the inventory accumulation during the off - season is not significant, which may trigger unexpected restocking [7] - **Basis/Spread**: It is bearish. The basis has shrunk significantly, and the spot in some areas has returned to a discount. As of Friday, the basis of rb2510 in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 28, a decrease of 30 compared with the previous week [7] - **Profit**: It is bearish. Long - process steel production still has profits, while short - process production profits are unstable, and the production reduction has increased slightly [7] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The production links in the industry chain have meager profits, with relatively low relative valuations and absolute valuations not reaching the bottom [7] - **Macro and Policy**: It is bullish. Due to the expectations of domestic conferences in July and US interest rate cuts in September, market risk appetite has increased, and short - term funds are willing to enter the market [7] - **Investment View**: It is to wait and see. If no substantial policies are introduced in the short term, the positive impact on profits and product prices may not last long. The basis of black - sector varieties has been shrinking recently [7] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, observe the pressure level; for arbitrage, take profit on short - term long positions in the spread between hot - rolled and rebar; for cash - and - carry, take profit on reverse arbitrage and enter long positions in batches [7] 3.2. PART TWO: Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: It is neutral. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have both increased, but attention should be paid to whether the pressure on non - five - major steel products is increasing. The daily average iron - water production has decreased, and the steel - mill profitability rate is still good, but there are signs of weakening iron - water production [64] - **Coking Coal Supply**: It is neutral. Domestic coal mines are gradually resuming production, the port clearance has recovered slowly, and the sentiment in the seaborne coal market has improved [64] - **Coke Supply**: It is neutral. Coke production has continued to decline this week, and the coking profit has decreased. However, the spot sentiment of coal and coke has strengthened due to downstream restocking [64] - **Inventory**: It is bearish. Downstream procurement has started, but the rate of total inventory reduction has narrowed, and the overall fundamentals are gradually weakening [64] - **Basis/Spread**: It is bearish. Coke has not yet started to increase prices, and the warehouse - receipt cost has changed [64] - **Profit**: It is neutral. Steel - mill profitability is still good, but coking profit has decreased, and the cost of coking coal has increased [64] - **Summary**: It is bearish. Although the "anti - involution" policy has boosted market sentiment, the current situation is not comparable to the 2015 supply - side reform. The policy may lead to a reduction in demand rather than supply for the black - metal industry. The industry data shows signs of weakening, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and establish cash - and - carry positions for industrial customers [64] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, industrial customers should actively engage in cash - and - carry hedging; for arbitrage, wait and see. Pay attention to changes in coal - mine production policies, steel demand, and macro - level disturbances [64] 3.3. PART THREE: Iron Ore - **Supply**: It is neutral. The end - of - season rush for iron - ore shipments has ended, and shipments from Australia and Brazil have declined rapidly in the first week of July, while shipments from India have increased significantly. Seasonally, shipments will continue to decline in July, but the increase in arrivals in July will relieve the pressure on near - month contracts [112] - **Demand**: It is neutral. Steel - mill iron - water production has decreased significantly this week, mainly due to the decline in finished - product demand in some areas and seasonal blast - furnace inspections. It is expected that the daily average iron - water production will remain at a high level of around 240 in July. The demand for steel products has shown an off - season but not weak state recently, and the negative feedback logic based on weakening downstream demand has not been supported by current data [112] - **Inventory**: It is bearish. The inventory of 47 ports, the amount of ships waiting at ports, and the in - plant inventory have all increased, with a total inventory increase of 124 tons. There is still a risk of inventory accumulation with the decline in iron - water production and high arrivals [112] - **Profit**: It is neutral. Steel - mill profits are still at a high level, so the iron - water production can remain at a high level in the short term [112] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The iron - water production is at a high level, and the short - term valuation is relatively neutral [112] - **Summary**: It is neutral. The iron - water production has decreased significantly this week. The basis of iron ore has bottomed out and rebounded under the "anti - involution" trading sentiment. The "anti - involution" mainly affects the new - energy and photovoltaic industries, and its impact on the black - metal industry is mainly emotional. It is not recommended to short the black - metal market in the short term [112] - **Investment View**: It is to expect a sideways movement - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, wait and see temporarily. Pay attention to recession trading and the implementation of flat - control policies [113]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The black metal industry is currently in a weak state, with the narrative of "weak supply and demand" in the steel industry, and the off - season pressure is gradually being realized. The prices of various products such as rebar, coking coal, coke, and iron ore are under pressure [3][5][7][35][85] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Rebar - **Supply**: The daily average pig iron output has declined for 3 consecutive weeks to around 242, and it may continue to decline slowly. The raw material support is weak, and the trigger conditions for rapid market - based production cuts are not fully met [7] - **Demand**: There is no significant weakening in demand for now, but there are concerns about the sustainability of demand, especially the possible decline in steel exports. The SMM high - frequency export data reached a high point in May [7] - **Inventory**: It can still maintain seasonal destocking, with a low total inventory level, and the industry is in a state of active destocking [7] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis has slightly expanded, and the futures price remains at a discount to the spot price. As of Friday, the basis of rb2505 in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 79, a slight expansion of 15 from the previous week [7] - **Profit**: Long - process steel production still has profits, while short - process production profits are unstable, mostly in the negative range [7] - **Valuation**: The production links in the industrial chain have meager profits, with relatively low relative valuations and still room for compression in absolute valuations [7] - **Macro and Policy**: There may be fluctuations in the trade war, and there is a short - term vacuum in macro - policies. There is no new definite information on industrial production restrictions [7] - **Investment View**: It is recommended to wait and see. The macro - environment is uncertain, and the next important observation window is the major meeting in July [7] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, do a good job in hedging and open - position management and appropriately rotate inventories. For arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar when it is high. For spot - futures trading, conduct positive basis trading for hot - rolled coil [7] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The off - season pressure is gradually being realized. The apparent demand for five major steel products is slightly better than expected, but the overall off - season pressure is increasing. The pig iron output continues to decline, and many steel mills choose to carry out timely maintenance [35] - **Coking Coal Supply**: Domestic coal mines face increasing shipment pressure, with continued production cuts and inventory accumulation. Mongolian coal prices have collectively declined, and the price difference between domestic and international seaborne coal remains large [35] - **Coke Supply**: Coke supply is sufficient. Although the production has decreased slightly this week, coke enterprises still have profits due to the rapid decline in the cost of coking coal [35] - **Inventory**: Downstream enterprises control the arrival of goods, and upstream enterprises face increasing shipment pressure. The inventory of coal and coke continues to show a bearish trend [35] - **Basis/Spread**: The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts [35] - **Profit**: Steel mills still have good profits, but some have reduced production. Coke enterprises still have profits despite the decline in data [35] - **Summary**: The market continues the previous downward trend, and the black chain index continues to trade on the off - season and the collapse of raw material costs. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy for coal and coke [35] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, mainly short. For arbitrage, conduct a positive spread trade between JM9 and JM1 [35] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The shipment has shown a seasonal rebound, and the overall supply is in a neutral state. Attention should be paid to the possible significant increase in shipment due to the annual and quarterly production - volume rush of some mines in June [85] - **Demand**: The pig iron output of steel mills has continued to decline, mainly due to the routine maintenance of large blast furnaces. The steel mills' profits have shrunk, and there are concerns about the stability of steel exports [85] - **Inventory**: With the expected increase in supply in June and the downward trend of pig iron output, port inventories will gradually stabilize or even show a slight increase [85] - **Profit**: Although the steel mills' profits have declined, the pressure is not great, and the pig iron output can still remain at a high level in the short term [85] - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is relatively neutral as the pig iron output is at a high level [85] - **Macro and Policy**: There is an expectation of increased supply in the furnace material sector in June, and the pig iron output is at risk of decline. The iron ore market is in a weak and volatile state [85] - **Investment View**: The market is expected to be volatile [85] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting when the price is above $100. For arbitrage, close all positive spread trades between the September and January contracts [85]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The steel industry may shift to a structure of weak supply and demand, with cost weakening and strong over - supply expectations. Consider rolling selling hedging or spot pre - sales. [4] - For coking coal and coke, the industry's off - season is being realized. Maintain a high - shorting idea, but early short positions can be appropriately closed to avoid risks. [5] - Silicon iron's rebound due to tight spot supply may continue, while manganese silicon is expected to oscillate without new large - scale production cut expectations. [7] - Iron ore is in a stage of accumulating off - season contradictions and will experience small - scale oscillations. [8] 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - On May 23, far - month and near - month contracts of various black metals generally declined. For example, the RB2601 contract of rebar fell 22 yuan/ton (- 0.71%), and the RB2510 contract fell 13 yuan/ton (- 0.42%). [2] - The cross - month spreads, spreads/parities/profits, and basis of different varieties also showed different degrees of change. For instance, the spread of RB2510 - 2601 increased by 7 yuan/ton. [2] Steel - Weekend spot prices dropped slightly, and trading was weak. The current supply - demand structure seems healthy, but there are strong over - supply expectations. Only administrative production restrictions may reverse the industry trend, but there is no clear information. [4] - Suggestions include unilateral waiting and using hot - rolled coils for better liquidity in hedging and open - position management. [9] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot prices of coking coal and coke continued to decline. The coking coal auction had more failed bids, and the coal price decreased. The port - traded quasi - first - grade coke price was 1280 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/week - on - week). [5] - Futures prices also fell. The black chain index continued to decline and hit new lows. The weighted price of coking coal decreased by 6.03% week - on - week. [5] - Unilateral high - shorting is recommended, and early short positions can be appropriately closed. [5][9] Ferrous Alloys - Silicon iron and manganese silicon large - scale producers had significant production cuts this week. Silicon iron's spot resources in the Ningxia region were tight, while manganese silicon had no new large - scale production cut expectations after profit repair. [7] - Cost is expected to decline slightly. Silicon iron's spot tightness may lead to a continued rebound, and manganese silicon is expected to oscillate. [7] - It is recommended to hold previous long positions in silicon iron and long - short spreads of ferrous alloys. [7] Iron Ore - Iron ore shipments are gradually increasing. In June, mines will enter the end - of - season and annual production - rush stages, and port inventories may shift from slight destocking to slight stocking. [8] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate slightly. It is recommended to hold long - short spreads and short at high prices. [8][9]