Core Viewpoint - Trump is exerting pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to 1%-2% by highlighting the burden of high interest costs on the federal government and threatening to undermine the Fed's independence if his demands are not met [1][5]. Group 1: Pressure Tactics - Public Shaming and Attacks: Trump emphasizes that a 1% increase in interest rates results in an additional $200 billion in annual interest payments for the federal government, demanding a reduction in rates [1]. - Personal Attacks on Fed Officials: Trump labels Powell as "Mr. Too Late," accusing him of incompetence and threatening to appoint a successor who supports rate cuts if Powell resigns [1]. Group 2: Data Manipulation Allegations - Questioning Data Credibility: Following a negative ADP employment report, Trump suggests that the subsequent strong non-farm payroll data is "untrustworthy," implying the Fed is using it to avoid rate cuts [2]. - Pushing for Data Revisions: Trump's team is reportedly manipulating initial employment data to create a rationale for rate cuts, exploiting the rules around data revisions [3]. Group 3: Personnel and Institutional Changes - Nominating Allies to the Fed: Trump is preemptively nominating officials like Bowman, who support rate cuts, to influence the Fed's decision-making ahead of the July meeting [4]. - Threatening Fed Independence: Trump claims he will push for legislation to weaken the Fed's decision-making power if rates are not cut by September [5]. Group 4: Market Expectations and Fed Signals - Market Expectation Adjustments: Despite strong non-farm data, Trump's pressure has led to a 75%-80% probability of a rate cut in September, down from 98% prior to the data release [6]. - Compromise Signals from the Fed: Powell's comments suggest that without tariff policies, a rate cut would have already occurred, indicating potential action in September [6]. Group 5: Political and Economic Implications - Urgency for Rate Cuts: Trump must secure a rate cut by the end of September to avoid funding risks for the "Great American Plan," which could exacerbate the U.S. debt crisis [8].