1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US copper tariff policy has increased market volatility, and the price differences between US copper, LME copper, and SHFE copper are expected to widen. There is a risk of correction for LME copper and SHFE copper. [2] - The aluminum market is affected by the strong domestic commodity atmosphere, but the expected increase in aluminum ingot inventory in July may resist the upward movement of aluminum prices. [4] - The lead price shows a relatively strong trend, but the increase of SHFE lead is expected to be limited due to weak domestic consumption. [5] - The zinc price has rebounded, but the expected increase in zinc ingot supply and limited consumption may restrict its upward space. [7] - The tin market is in a stalemate between supply shortage and limited acceptance of high - price raw materials by the end - users, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range. [8][9] - The nickel price is affected by macro - sentiment, but the weak demand for stainless steel and the high premium of nickel price over nickel - iron limit its upward space, and it is recommended to sell short on rallies. [10] - The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate is weak, with increased production and inventory, and the upward space of lithium price is limited. [12] - The alumina market has an over - capacity pattern, and it is recommended to short on rallies, with the price anchored to the cost. [15] - The stainless steel market shows a short - term improvement, but the future trend depends on the implementation of anti - involution policies and the substantial improvement of the fundamentals. [17] - The casting aluminum alloy market has weak supply and demand in the off - season, and the futures price faces upward pressure. [19] 3. Summary by Metals Copper - Market performance: LME copper rose 0.23% to $9682/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78,590 yuan/ton. [2] - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 975 tons to 108,100 tons, and domestic refined copper social inventory and bonded - area inventory both increased slightly. [2] - Price outlook: There is a risk of correction for LME copper and SHFE copper, and the price difference between US copper and others is expected to widen. The operating range of SHFE copper is 77,000 - 79,200 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 9,400 - 9,800 dollars/ton. [2] Aluminum - Market performance: LME aluminum rose 0.15% to $2606/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,760 yuan/ton. The position of SHFE aluminum weighted contract increased. [4] - Inventory: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased, while LME aluminum inventory increased. [4] - Price outlook: The expected increase in aluminum ingot inventory in July may resist the upward movement of aluminum prices. The operating range of SHFE aluminum is 20,600 - 20,850 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2,570 - 2,640 dollars/ton. [4] Lead - Market performance: SHFE lead index rose 0.34% to 17,238 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2068/ton. [5] - Inventory: Domestic social inventory increased slightly. [5] - Price outlook: The lead price shows a relatively strong trend, but the increase of SHFE lead is expected to be limited due to weak domestic consumption. [5] Zinc - Market performance: SHFE zinc index rose 1.28% to 22,347 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2767/ton. [7] - Inventory: Domestic social inventory increased slightly. [7] - Price outlook: The zinc price has rebounded, but the expected increase in zinc ingot supply and limited consumption may restrict its upward space. [7] Tin - Market performance: SHFE tin rose 1.46% to 266,740 yuan/ton. [8] - Supply - demand situation: The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand is in the off - season, with weak procurement intention. [8] - Price outlook: The domestic tin price is expected to fluctuate between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price between 31,000 - 33,000 dollars/ton. [9] Nickel - Market performance: SHFE nickel rose 1.92% to 121,720 yuan/ton, and LME nickel rose 1.90% to $15,285/ton. [10] - Fundamental contradiction: The weak demand for stainless steel leads to a decline in nickel - iron price, and the high premium of nickel price over nickel - iron limits its upward space. [10] - Price outlook: It is recommended to sell short on rallies, with the operating range of SHFE nickel at 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and that of LME nickel 3M at 14,500 - 16,000 dollars/ton. [10] Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The MMLC index rose 0.32%, and the LC2509 contract fell 0.34%. [12] - Supply - demand situation: Production increased by 3.8% to 18,813 tons, and inventory increased by 1.8% to 140,793 tons. [12] - Price outlook: The upward space of lithium price is limited. The operating range of the LC2509 contract is 62,900 - 65,300 yuan/ton. [12] Alumina - Market performance: The alumina index rose 2.44% to 3,186 yuan/ton. [14] - Cost and price: The price is anchored to the cost, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2,800 - 3,300 yuan/ton. [15] Stainless Steel - Market performance: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.74% to 12,865 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased. [17] - Inventory: Social inventory increased by 0.93%. [17] - Price outlook: The future trend depends on the implementation of anti - involution policies and the substantial improvement of the fundamentals. [17] Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market performance: The AD2511 contract rose 0.55% to 19,940 yuan/ton. [19] - Inventory: The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three regions increased. [19] - Price outlook: The futures price faces upward pressure due to weak supply and demand in the off - season. [19]