美国学者：中国依托自身模式取得非凡成就，美国不得不正视现实丨世界观 近期，美国知名学者彼得·沃克(Peter Walker)访问中国人民大学重阳金融研究院(人大重阳)，在人大重阳 区域国别论坛之"美国系列"第十八场活动中发表题为"关于中美关系的见解"的公开演讲，以东西方文化 与思维的本质差异为切入点，深入探讨了当前中美两国各自发展模式的未来方向。以下为讲座观点精 编： 我想强调一个基本观点：中国模式极其稳定，且这种稳定性已持续极长周期。然而，美国对此理解甚 少。 当中国通过大规模脱贫、建设世界级基础设施、形成倍数级领先的制造业能力，特别是在前沿领域取得 突破性成就时，美国不得不正视一个现实：中国确实取得了非凡成就。 关键问题在于：如何确保体制质量？ "中国模式"强于美国的三大优势 首先，中国执行的是一套选贤任能的机制——通过长期系统评估干部政绩与潜力，择优晋升。 "五年规划"则体现强大执行力：中央设定目标后，各省市、行业制定落实方案，经目标值校准达成共 识，最终形成全民共同践行的路线图。 0:00 视频：美国知名学者：希望美国认清"遏制中国"不切实际丨世界观 来源：中国新闻网 中国的终极战略优势在于"产业政策 ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 09 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 螺纹 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货(元/吨) | | | | | | | | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 淵時 | | RB05 | 65TE | 3128 | 31 | HC05-RB05 | 134 | 131 | 3 | | RB10 | 3020 | 2989 | 31 | HC10-RB10 | 350 | 395 | -45 | | RB01 | 3096 | 3072 | 24 | HC01-RB01 | 190 | 181 | 9 | | RB01-RB05 | -63 | -56 | -7 | RB10-RB01 | -76 | -83 | 7 | | RB05-RB10 | 139 | 139 | 0 | | | | | | 05合约螺纹盘面利润 | -119 | -113 | -7 | RB05/105 | 4.10 | 4.12 ...

【文/观察者网 阮佳琪】 美国不断加大先进半导体对华限制的同时，宛如惊弓之鸟的美国专家，又开始鼓噪新的对华"恐惧症"。 当地时间10月2日，英国《金融时报》刊登了胡佛研究所研究员迈克·库肯（Mike Kuiken）的长篇大 论。这位资深国家安全政策顾问发出警告，称美国对中国"基础型芯片"（foundational chips）的依赖日 益加深，将带来所谓国家安全风险，而这场危机正被更受关注的人工智能（AI）霸主之争所掩盖。 在库肯看来，美国政府一心关注先进AI半导体之际，中国正"悄然垄断"基础芯片市场。这些芯片是不可 或缺的数字技术"主力军"，支撑着汽车、医疗设备、国防系统乃至关键国家基础设施的一切，其重要性 不言而喻。 库肯援引数据称，中国已占据全球近40%的芯片产能，这种主导地位预计在2030年前还会进一步扩大。 他敦促美国贸易代表办公室和商务部，针对中国成熟制程芯片的301调查必须以"果断行动"收尾，推出 远超加征关税的产业政策，要求美国企业披露其所用芯片的供应链，同时呼吁政府加大对基础型芯片的 投入资金。 他还渲染威胁称，如果错过此次机会，后果将不堪设想，届时美国生产的每一辆汽车、每一枚导弹、每 一台 ...

米兰（StephenMiran），一位在经济政策领域独树一帜的声音，近年来在美联储与白宫经济顾问委员会（CEA）中的角色引发了广泛关注。他的观点和立 场，常常挑战传统经济学理论及政策实施，尤其是在货币政策领域，他的存在几乎打破了美联储长期以来所遵循的集体决策与渐进主义传统。米兰，作为美 联储理事，同时担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席，展现了与主流经济学家不同的视角，提出了一系列备受争议的政策建议。 米兰的职业背景并不寻常。从波士顿大学生物化学的学术道路到经济学的深度思考，他的转变映射出他独特的思维方式。以休谟的怀疑主义哲学为指引，米 兰不仅在学术上有过系统的训练，还深入金融行业，涉足政策领域。他曾在特朗普政府时期担任财政部高级顾问，参与了包括《CARES法案》在内的重大 经济政策制定。后来，他选择离开商界，加入曼哈顿研究所，提出了关于美国制造业回流、全球贸易重构等话题，逐渐成为特朗普经济政策的核心智囊之 一。 在货币政策方面，米兰的主张引发了广泛讨论。在2023年9月的美联储会议中，米兰提出的降息50个基点的建议，与其他成员支持的25个基点的降息形成了 鲜明对比。米兰认为，美联储的货币政策过于紧缩，已经抑制了经济的 ...

2025.10.02 本文字数：3074，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 |第一财经 高雅 今年9月，美联储联邦公开市场委员（FOMC）议息会议出现了11:1的投票结果。 唯一一位对降息25个基点持有异议的，是刚刚履职仅一天的理事米兰（Stephen Miran）。他更为激进地 主张应一次性降息50个基点。 不到一周后，米兰于9月22日现身纽约希尔顿中城区的经济俱乐部，公开承认自己在货币政策立场上与 其他FOMC成员存在分歧。他明确提出，适当的联邦基金利率应在2%左右，这几乎比当前政策水平低 了2个百分点。 更引发争议的是，米兰在进入美联储履职的同时，仍保留着白宫经济顾问委员会（CEA）主席的职务， 只是暂时休假且不领取薪酬。这一安排进一步引发了外界对于特朗普政府可能借此对美联储的独立性施 加不当影响的担忧。 1983年，米兰出生于美国纽约州的洛克兰郡，他的父母都是美国社会保障管理局的公职人员。米兰称， 他的父母对政策抱有浓厚兴趣，他因此也从小深受这种氛围的感染。 2000年代初，他进入波士顿大学就读，最初主修生物化学。但他"在实验室里表现并不出色"，因此将学 术兴趣转向经济学，并辅修了哲学。在此过程中，他深受18 ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属早报 2025 年 09 月 30 日 1.中共中央政治局召开会议，研究制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划重大问 题。会议决定，二十届四中全会于 10 月 20 日至 23 日在北京召开。 公众号二维码 银河投研黑色与有色 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F03105917 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 黑色金属每日早盘观察 钢材 【相关资讯】 2.国家发改委：会同有关方面积极推进新型政策性金融工具相关工作，新型政策性金融 工具规模共 5000 亿元，全部用于补充项目资本金。 现货价格：网价上海地区螺纹 3240 元（-10），北京地区 3160（-），上海地区热卷 3350 元（-10），天津地区热卷 3290 元（-）。 【逻辑分析】 上周五夜盘黑色板块继续下跌，29 日建筑钢材成交为 10.96 万吨。上周钢联数据公 布，五大材总体增产，但热轧有所减产；受供应压力影响，热卷表需有所走弱，但螺 纹需求 ...

美国为何突然改变立场？4亿美元入股稀土巨头的背后 过去四十年，美国一直标榜政府不干预市场的经济理念。但最近却出人意料地宣布向本土最大稀土企业MP材料注资4亿美元，这种政府持股绑定产能的做 法，与其长期奉行的自由市场原则形成了鲜明对比。 历史总是充满戏剧性。当年那些极力反对产业政策的美国政界人士恐怕想不到，有朝一日他们的后辈会效仿中国的做法，通过政府直接入股的方式来发展稀 土产业。正如《华尔街日报》评论指出：美国正在复制中国在稀土领域已验证成功的模式。 这种从核心资源到全产业链的布局思路，与中国当年推动稀土产业矿山开采-分离提纯--磁体制造全链条发展的策略高度相似。就连美国计划设立50亿美元矿 业投资基金的举措，也隐约可见中国产业投资基金的影子。 但照搬容易，吃透却难。美国很快就遇到了第一个难题：繁琐的审批流程。美国尼奥科矿业公司CEO无奈表示：在美国开发一座新矿山平均需要29年时间。 漫长的环境评估、原住民协商等程序，往往让项目胎死腹中。而中国通过生态保护与产业发展协同审批的创新机制，早已解决了这类问题。 产业链的断层更让美国举步维艰。目前美国本土稀土加工率不足10%，大部分稀土精矿仍需运往海外进行分离提纯， ...

【文/观察者网 柳白】 中国在稀土等领域的全球主导地位，成了美国长期絮叨的一块"心病"。 但对美政府来说，抱怨归抱怨，该学的还得学。 "从收购英特尔股份到寻求入股美洲锂业（Lithium Americas），特朗普政府正借鉴中国的产业政 策。"香港英文媒体《南华早报》9月25日评论称，美国政府正越来越多地在自己引以为傲的所谓'自由 市场'中挥舞政府'有形之手'，而这种策略一度长期以来与中国联系在一起。 分析人士表示，特朗普政府最近对产业政策的拥抱，暴露出美国对全球供应链脆弱性的担忧正在上升。 然而，美国已经40多年没搞过产业政策，如今已未必知道如何去做。 "我认为美国政府正试图借鉴中国的经验。"香港大学当代中国与世界研究中心研究员黄裕舜 （BrianWong）说。 新加坡亚太经济研究公司（Asia-Pacific Economics）首席执行官拉吉夫·比斯瓦斯（Rajiv Biswas）也认 同，美政府近期的举措凸显出一种向"干预主义"靠拢的政策取向。 "这反映出美国意识到，单靠商业市场力量可能无法保证为某些关键战略产业提供足够的本土供应能 力，例如国防技术或先进电子行业。"比斯瓦斯说，"地缘政治紧张局势升级 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The steel market is expected to remain volatile and weak in the short - term, but there may be a demand recovery after the holiday and a potential inventory inflection point. The "15th Five - Year Plan" and peak season demand will affect the price trend [4]. - The coking coal and coke market is currently in short - term shock adjustment with unclear drivers. In the medium - term, there are policy disturbances on the supply side, so a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but caution is needed regarding the upside potential [9][10]. - The iron ore market has seen prices oscillate. The price may be under pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter [15]. - The ferroalloy market has high supply pressure. For both silicon iron and manganese silicon, it is recommended to short on rebounds [20][21]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Related Information**: If the South Korean K - steel bill is implemented, China's medium - thick plate and hot - rolled coil exports to South Korea may be severely affected. In August, the national electricity consumption reached 1015.4 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5%. Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major regions declined [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector was weak and volatile last night. Construction steel trading volume on the 23rd was 92,000 tons. There was a production divergence among the five major steel products last week. Currently in the off - season, demand recovery is average. After the parade, steel demand followed the seasonal pattern. Iron - water production is expected to remain high this week. Steel demand may recover after the holiday [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: maintain a volatile and weak trend; Arbitrage: hold long 1 - 5 spreads and short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar; Options: wait and see [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, Mongolian coal ports will be closed for 7 days. Recently, the coking coal spot price has generally risen, and coke has a price increase expectation. Various coke and coking coal warehouse - receipt prices are provided [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: The night - session continued to oscillate. The market has digested the expectation of pre - holiday raw material restocking. The spot price is still rising. In the long - run, coal production may be restricted by policies, but the upside of coking coal prices is limited by steel demand and profits [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: short - term shock adjustment, medium - term buy on dips with caution about the upside [10][12]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The OECD predicts that the global economic growth rate will be 3.2% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026. In August, the national electricity consumption reached 1015.4 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5%. From September 15th - 21st, the transaction area of new and second - hand houses in 10 key cities increased year - on - year. Iron ore spot prices in Qingdao Port declined [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated last night. This week, the price first rose and then fell. The third - quarter supply of major mines improved, and non - mainstream mines maintained high shipments. Terminal steel demand in China weakened in the third quarter, while overseas steel demand remained high. The price may be under pressure at high levels [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: mainly hedge at high spot prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: mainly use circuit - breaker accumulative put options [16][18]. Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: On the 23rd, the prices of different manganese ores in Tianjin Port were reported. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 93% [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon iron, the spot price fluctuated on the 23rd. Supply is at a high level, and demand may decline in the future. It can be shorted near the resistance range of 5700 - 5800. For manganese silicon, the manganese ore spot price was weak, and the supply was still high. It can be shorted near the resistance range of 5900 - 6000 [20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: short on rebounds due to high supply pressure; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell straddle option combinations [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on the medium to long - term for stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, buy on dips for glass [1][8][10] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Wait - and - see or buy on dips for copper, suggest buying on dips after a pullback for aluminum, suggest waiting or shorting on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][12][18][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to oscillate; conduct an arbitrage strategy of shorting 01 and going long on 05 for soda ash [1][23][34] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate, PTA is expected to oscillate weakly, apples are expected to oscillate strongly, and jujubes are expected to oscillate weakly [1][36][37] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs, wide - range oscillation for corn, range oscillation for soybean meal, and oscillation with an upward bias for oils [1][39][46][53] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, macro - economic conditions, policy changes, and seasonal factors. Overall, the market for different futures products shows a complex situation with both opportunities and risks, and investors need to make decisions based on specific product characteristics and market trends [1][5][8] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Oscillating in the short - term, bullish on the medium to long - term, buy on dips. Affected by pre - holiday capital demands, A - shares fluctuated widely. The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index showed slight declines, while the ChiNext Index rose. Pay attention to whether the micro - cap stock index can regain stability on the 20 - day line [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. The bond market had a slight pullback. Open - market operations affected liquidity expectations, and the future trend of treasury bond futures needs further observation [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Oscillating. Multiple factors drove up market sentiment, with coal prices rising across the board, including pit - mouth, port, and purchased coal prices [8] - **Rebar**: Oscillating. The futures price of rebar oscillated weakly. The market sentiment weakened slightly, and the short - term focus is on the demand in October [8] - **Glass**: Buy on dips. The fundamentals of glass are stable. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand has a certain degree of support. The market is speculating on supply - side shutdown expectations and seasonal and macro - economic factors [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. The price of copper fluctuated after a rapid rise. The high price suppressed demand, and the market is affected by factors such as Fed's interest - rate policy, domestic economic data, and seasonal consumption [12][13] - **Aluminum**: Neutral. The price of aluminum showed a neutral trend. The price of bauxite decreased slightly, and the production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased steadily. The demand entered the peak season, and it is recommended to buy on dips [13] - **Nickel**: Neutral. The fundamentals of nickel changed little in the short - term, affected by macro and mine - end news. In the long - term, the supply is in surplus. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [18] - **Tin**: Neutral. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is picking up. It is recommended to conduct range trading [18][19] - **Silver and Gold**: Neutral. After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, precious metals showed a strong - side oscillation. Affected by US economic data and trade negotiations, it is recommended to conduct range trading [19][20][21] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Oscillating. The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is affected by the real - estate market and exports. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [23] - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillating. The upstream inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, and the demand is expected to increase marginally. It is expected to oscillate before the National Day [26] - **Styrene**: Oscillating. The cost is affected by oil prices and pure - benzene supply, and the demand is limited during the peak season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [27] - **Rubber**: Oscillating. Affected by typhoons and weak overseas buying, the raw - material price has limited upward momentum. The downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the price is expected to decline [29][30] - **Urea**: Oscillating. The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the compound - fertilizer market has slightly improved. The inventory has been accumulating, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the 01 contract [30] - **Methanol**: Oscillating. The supply in the mainland has recovered, the traditional demand is stable, and the demand from methanol - to - olefins has declined. The port inventory is at a high level, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [31] - **Polyolefins**: Oscillating. The downstream demand has improved during the "Golden September and Silver October" season, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The inventory has been decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range [32] - **Soda Ash**: Short 01 and go long on 05 for arbitrage. The downstream pre - holiday replenishment is active, but the production has increased. The supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to conduct the arbitrage strategy [34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillating. The global cotton supply - demand situation has improved, but the new - cotton output is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [36] - **PTA**: Oscillating weakly. Affected by concerns about OPEC+ production increases, the oil price has declined. The supply and demand are in a state of accumulation, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [36][37] - **Apples**: Oscillating strongly. Affected by weather conditions, the price of early - maturing apples is firm, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [37] - **Jujubes**: Oscillating weakly. The consumption is weak, and the price is under pressure after reaching a high level, with an expected weak - side oscillation [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Under pressure. Affected by factors such as supply increases and policy support, the short - term price may have a limited rebound, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of long 05 and short 03 [39][40] - **Eggs**: Resistance to rebound. The short - term supply pressure is difficult to relieve significantly, and the demand is gradually weakening. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and be cautious about shorting the 12 and 01 contracts in the short - term [42] - **Corn**: Range - oscillating. The new - crop supply will ease the tight supply of old - crop corn. It is recommended to take a short - side approach for the 11 contract and pay attention to the new - crop listing rhythm [45] - **Soybean Meal**: Weakly oscillating. Affected by Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs, the price is under pressure in the short - term, but there is cost support. The domestic supply is abundant from September to October, and the price is expected to be weak [46][48] - **Oils**: Adjusting. Affected by Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs, the oil price has回调. However, there is still support at the bottom. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [53]