图源：申万宏源 11月18日，2026申万宏源资本市场策略会在上海举行。 申万宏源党委书记、董事长刘健在会上致辞。他在致辞中表示，2026年是"十五五"开启之年，中国经济和资本市场都将进入高质量发展的新阶段。 申万宏源首席经济学家赵伟、申万宏源研究A股策略首席分析师傅静涛等研究大咖也分享了最新的宏观、策略等观点。 赵伟表示，伴随"疤痕效应"退潮与持续深化的扩内需政策，经济在2026年有望经历从"信心筑底"到"非典型"复苏；出口方面，发达经济体财政扩张、中美关税冲突 缓和、中国产业竞争力提升均将成为贡献出口韧性的关键力量；"反内卷"加码下，通胀指标改善有望带动企业盈利持续修复。 傅静涛表示，牛市远未结束。他把牛市分为两个阶段。2025年的科技结构牛是"牛市1.0"阶段，2026年春季可能是阶段性高点；2026年下半年可能启动全面牛，构 成"牛市2.0"阶段。 经济有望"非典型"复苏 申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟在会上做了宏观展望。他表示，2026年或将是党的二十届三中全会以来"改革"全面加速的开始，四中全会将"完善宏观经济治理"升 级为"完善宏观经济治理体系"，凸显了改革的全局思维。 向"改革"要红利，或意味着 ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251119：上方承压 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/19 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 9,350.00 0.00% | | | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 8,980.00 -1.10% | | 工业硅期现价格 | | | 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） 370.00 100.00 | | | | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 51.00 0.00% | | | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 52,210.00 -0.85% 元/吨 -1,210.00 445.00 基差 | | 多晶硅期现价格 | | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 元/吨 9,350.00 0.00% | | | | | 元/吨 9,350.00 0.00% | | | | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | | | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 元/吨 9,250.00 0.00% | | | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 9, ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to effectively integrate industrial policy and competition policy to build a modern industrial system, moving beyond the binary debate of whether to have industrial policy or not [2][4]. Group 1: Modern Industrial System - The construction of a modern industrial system should focus on advanced manufacturing as its backbone, reflecting a deeper understanding of economic development stages [4]. - The current manufacturing sector in China accounts for approximately 30% of GDP, and there is a need to maintain a reasonable proportion of manufacturing within the economy [4][5]. - The article highlights the issue of "premature de-manufacturing," where the domestic manufacturing share is declining, while China's global manufacturing share is increasing [5]. Group 2: Policy Coordination - The integration of industrial policy and competition policy should be based on the maturity of technology, with different focuses at various stages of industrialization [6]. - For emerging industries with unclear technological paths, competition policy should be emphasized to encourage innovation, while industrial policy can provide directional guidance [6]. - The article suggests that R&D investment should be significantly increased, with a target of 12% during the 14th Five-Year Plan, although achieving this may be challenging [7]. Group 3: Addressing "Involution Competition" - "Involution competition" is identified as a fundamental issue in building a unified market, affecting both micro and macroeconomic levels [9][10]. - The article discusses the need for unified government actions to enhance overall efficiency and facilitate the free flow of resources across regions [9]. - The emergence of platform economies is noted as a new characteristic of "involution competition," where platforms exert significant pricing power over the entire supply chain [10][11].

哈喽，大家好，今天我们聊一聊美元霸权的未来。最近，美国的国债已经突破了36.2万亿美元，占GDP的121.9%。美元的霸权正面临崩溃的边缘，这不仅仅 是金融危机，而是美元体系的"大限"来临。美国通过美债的庞氏骗局、虚假的强美元和金融炼金术维持着这个危机，而这些问题也暴露了现代货币体系的根 本矛盾。那么中国又是如何应对这一局面的呢？ 首先看荷兰。荷兰的阿斯麦公司是全球唯一能生产光刻机的公司，而光刻机又是半导体产业的核心。美国要求阿斯麦不能把光刻机卖给中国，而中国正是它 的最大客户。拒绝中国的订单后，阿斯麦的研发资金无法保证，利润和股价也大幅下跌。美国无情地威胁："你要是敢卖给中国，就制裁你。"现在的荷兰， 夹在美国和中国之间，日子过得十分艰难。 不要再误判了！现在我们面对的不是传统的金融危机，而是美元体系即将崩溃的"大限"。过去那些贸易摩擦、技术竞争等问题，现在看起来都不算什么。如 今，经济衰退和疯狂印钞交织在一起，形成了一个解不开的"死亡螺旋"。在这场全球博弈的过程中，曾经一统天下的美元霸权正悄悄走向黄昏。这可不是短 期的小调整，而是整个金融体系崩溃的预兆。 很多人还是拿着2008年金融危机的眼光来看现在的局 ...

美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特在2025年11月7日去了南卡罗来纳州萨姆特的eVAC Magnetics工厂视察，这 地方刚投产，出了第一块钕铁硼永磁体，这种东西用在电动车、风力发电机和F-35战斗机上。eVAC是 德国Vacuumschmelze公司的美国子公司，工厂建在波科塔利戈工业园区，占地85亩左右，从2023年动 工，到2025年秋天开始运营。 国防部给了国防生产法第三标题的资助，还有1.119亿美元的合格先进能源项目税收抵免，帮助工厂搞 大规模生产。南卡州官员说，运营起来后能多出几百个岗位。贝森特在那儿说，这块磁铁是25年来美国 本土产的第一块，标志着供应链开始摆脱依赖。 他还把这事跟整体经济复苏和就业拉上关系，说制造 业会在2026年和2027年继续起飞。贝森特提到了特朗普的稀土资源行政命令，说这命令帮了大忙，南卡 州长亨利·麦克马斯特也功不可没，因为州审批只用了八周就搞定。 工厂的生产线主要是做钕铁硼磁体最后的成型步骤，这一步在美国已经中断了25年。之前，美国在稀土 磁体制造上基本靠进口，尤其是从中国那边。中国控制了全球大部分稀土供应和加工，美国国防和工业 部门一直担心供应链被卡住。eVAC的工厂 ...

Group 1: Policy Overview - The "14th Five-Year Plan" proposal has been approved by the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee[6] - The plan emphasizes addressing the North-South economic disparity for the first time[5] - The guiding principles of the "14th Five-Year Plan" include "1 guarantee," "2 promotions," "5 focuses," and "6 persistences"[20] Group 2: Fiscal Policy - From January to September 2025, fiscal revenue growth turned positive for the first time this year, with a growth rate of 0.3%[45] - Expenditure growth is stabilizing at a high level, with a rate of 7.9%[45] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The central bank continues to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy[4] - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged as of July 2025[4] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at 5.0%[9] - The report indicates a steady recovery in fiscal operations, with balanced expenditure rhythms[4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is increasingly anxious about its automotive industry falling behind competitors from China and the US, prompting a reconsideration of its environmental and trade policies [1] Group 1: EU's Automotive Industry Concerns - The EU's automotive production is projected to decline from 13 million to 9 million vehicles over the next decade if no intervention is taken [1] - In the first nine months of this year, Chinese car sales in Italy surged by 150%, raising alarms about the competitive landscape [1] - By 2035, the EU's market share in the automotive sector is expected to drop from 70% to 55%, with component share falling from 85% to below 50% [1] Group 2: Recommendations from EU Officials - The EU should exhibit flexibility regarding the 2035 target to completely ban internal combustion engine vehicles, which was initially set to reduce carbon emissions to zero [2][4] - European car manufacturers are encouraged to explore new markets to boost sales, while the EU should work to reduce bureaucratic obstacles [5] - The EU plans to introduce a broader strategy by December 10, aimed at creating a new category of affordable electric vehicles to counter Chinese competition [5] Group 3: Trade and Investment Strategies - The EU is considering setting conditions on foreign investments in Europe, particularly targeting Chinese production bases that utilize local components and labor [5] - To reduce reliance on Chinese rare earth minerals, the EU should seek new suppliers from Brazil, Canada, and African nations, while also enhancing recycling efforts [5] - The EU's previous tariff imposition on Chinese electric vehicles has complicated technology sharing, according to industry executives [7][8]

宏观面与产业面共振 目前伦铜处于历史高位，短线需谨防价格回落风险，美联储偏鹰表态或使多头了结意愿升温。但长期来 看，AI需求加持，铜价定价逻辑有望重塑，其价格中枢或将上移。 9月下旬以来，沪铜在宏观政策宽松预期与铜矿供应收缩担忧共同推动下，增仓上行趋势显著。进入10 月中旬，由于外围局势不稳，铜价高位震荡加剧。10月中下旬，随着市场风险偏好回暖，沪铜价格重拾 升势，并接连突破年内及近5年高点。然而，至10月底，美联储议息会议释放鹰派信号，叠加伦敦铜价 已处于高位，铜价出现阶段性冲高回落。 行业政策助力 从宏观环境来看，美联储已启动连续降息，全球货币政策也同步转向宽松周期，为铜价提供了有利金融 环境。历史经验表明，在降息周期尾声阶段，流动性环境改善与市场对经济复苏预期升温通常会形成共 振，往往能推动铜价走出趋势性上涨行情。当前全球仍处于降息前半程，这或许意味着未来铜价仍有较 大上行空间。 与此同时，我国持续推出的宏观稳增长政策，以及针对铜冶炼行业产能过剩问题推出的"遏制内卷"产业 政策，共同为铜价构筑了坚实的底部支撑。中国有色金属工业协会在10月底的新闻发布会上，正式建议 对铜、铅、锌等大宗金属设立产能"天花板 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the "15th Five-Year Plan" (十五五) in China, focusing on the transition from quantity to quality in industrial policy, emphasizing industrial ecology, cutting-edge standards, AI integration, and the reduction of traditional subsidies [1][3][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Shift in Policy Focus**: The main goal remains unchanged, but constraints have adjusted. Technology will be the core focus for the coming years, with a gradual reduction in direct subsidies and a shift towards building an innovative ecosystem to avoid destructive competition [3][8][12]. - **Gradual Rebalancing**: The policy framework will continue but with nuanced adjustments. The emphasis will be on achieving a balance between multiple objectives, including geopolitical risks and trade friction [3][10][12]. - **AI and Innovation**: AI is expected to enhance productivity through large-scale real-world applications, with a flexible GDP growth target set around 4.5% for the next five years [8][11]. - **Decline of Subsidy-Driven Profits**: Industries that have relied on subsidies will see diminishing returns, shifting the competitive focus to research intensity and execution capabilities of enterprises [8][15]. - **Economic Rebalancing**: The government aims to shift economic growth from supply-driven to demand-driven, with social security reforms expected to stimulate consumption and reduce high savings rates [13][30]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Local Incentive Mechanisms**: The existing local government incentive structures are criticized for promoting quantity over quality, necessitating a reform to encourage consumption rather than production [14][27]. - **Challenges in Total Factor Productivity (TFP)**: TFP growth has significantly slowed, indicating a need for structural reforms to enhance efficiency and resource allocation [17][18]. - **Emerging Industries**: China is rapidly advancing in strategic emerging industries such as AI, robotics, and biotechnology, with expectations to become a leader in these sectors by 2050 [42][43]. - **Supply Chain Vulnerabilities**: Despite advancements, China still faces challenges in high-end semiconductor production and relies on foreign technology for critical components, which poses geopolitical risks [43][44]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights a pivotal moment in China's industrial policy, emphasizing a transition towards innovation and quality, while addressing the need for structural reforms to enhance productivity and consumption. The focus on AI and emerging industries indicates a strategic shift that could redefine China's economic landscape in the coming years [1][3][8][12][42].

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, aligning with market expectations[9] - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2%, citing stronger-than-expected economic resilience in the Eurozone, with Q3 GDP growth of 0.2%[11] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its interest rate unchanged, with two members voting against this decision, indicating potential future rate hikes[12] Economic Data - Eurozone's Q3 GDP growth of 0.2% exceeded the expected 0.1%, with France showing a 0.5% increase, the highest in three years, while Germany's growth stagnated[26] - In the U.S., September fiscal revenue was $543.7 billion, a 3.2% year-on-year increase, while expenditures were $345.7 billion, down 22.6% year-on-year, resulting in a fiscal surplus of $198 billion[17] - Japan's industrial and commercial sales showed improvement, with consumer confidence rising for three consecutive months[28] Market Trends - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.71% last week, with a year-to-date increase of 16.30%[5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 9 basis points to 4.11%, reflecting market adjustments following the Fed's rate cut[5] - The WTI crude oil price decreased by 1.01% to $61, with a year-to-date decline of 14.78%[5]