作者 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 地缘冲突骤然升级，避险情绪升温 ——海外宏观周报（2026.2.23-2026.3.1） 核心观点 ·· 时间 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 徐嘉琦 执行总监 冯琳 全球：上周全球资产受避险情绪影响大幅波动。其中避 险资产上涨，上周黄金、白银价格分别上涨3.35%、11.76%； 主要债券收益率普遍下行，10 年期美债收益率大幅下行 11 个基点至 3.97%，欧债收益率亦显著走低。上周全球 股市表现分化，日韩、欧洲股市上涨，美股三大指数集 体收跌。上周末美伊地缘冲突骤然升级，需关注对金融 市场的冲击。 2026 年 3 月 2 日 美国：上周公布的美国 1 月 PPI 同比增速 2.9%，超出预 期，主要由服务价格上涨驱动，这可能为美联储核心通 胀指标带来上行压力，令货币政策前景复杂化。但美联 储理事米兰重申其 2026 年需降息 100 个基点的立场，并 警告过度监管扭曲信贷结构，其鸽派言论叠加地缘避险 需求，推动美债收益率大幅下行。 日本：央行行长植田和男上周明确表示，将在 3 月和 4 月的会议上仔细研究数据以决定是否加息，为近期行动 打开大门。他强调，若春 ...

文︱陆弃 在全球贸易体系中，争端并不罕见，但每一次进入正式裁决程序的案件，往往都折射出更深层的结构性 张力。2月24日，世界贸易组织争端解决机构决定成立专家组，审理中国与印度围绕可再生能源与汽车 领域关税及相关措施的分歧。这一程序性进展看似技术性，却在多边贸易秩序持续承压的背景下，具有 格外鲜明的象征意义。 近年来，新能源与汽车产业已成为各国政策布局的核心。能源转型目标叠加产业竞争现实，使政府在市 场开放与产业保护之间反复权衡。关税、补贴、本地化要求与激励机制交织，既是政策工具，也是争议 源头。当这些措施被指"限制性"或"歧视性"，分歧便从双边谈判进入制度框架。此次争端的走向，正是 在这一逻辑下展开。 中国方面认为，印度在可再生能源与汽车领域实施的关税与激励安排违反了多边规则，并已在此前会议 中请求成立专家组。印度则对争端持续表示遗憾，强调其措施符合世贸组织规则，并指出已本着诚意参 与磋商。双方立场分歧并不令人意外，却再次凸显多边机制在复杂政策环境中的调解角色。 问题的关键不仅在于关税税率本身，更在于政策设计背后的治理逻辑。新能源产业具有显著的战略属 性，涉及能源安全、技术创新与就业结构调整。各国通过政策支持 ...

墨子曾云：夫辩者，将以明是非之分，审治乱之纪，明同异之处，察明实之理。辩论，若是有意义且深刻的，它不仅能开阔人们的视野，让真理显现， 还能促进社会的进步与反思，助益国家的发展。在历史的长河中，辩论的力量一直不容忽视，尤其当其中有智慧与远见的辩手，能够引领思维、推动改 革。 如今，当我们提到辩论和辩手，脑海中自然会浮现出林毅夫和张维迎这两位人物。一个曾任世界银行高级副行长及首席经济学家，另一个是北京大学光 华管理学院院长，著名的经济学教授。两人同为经济学界的佼佼者，却在经济学的道路上走得各不相同。自上世纪90年代，两人在国企改革问题上的北 大交火事件起，双方的辩论与对话便如火如荼。每一次的交锋，话题总能引起广泛关注，充满张力和冲突。 其中，2016年11月，围绕产业政策展开的辩论，尤其被誉为世纪之辩，这场辩论不仅被看作是一次思想的碰撞，更是一场可以载入中国历史的学术争 论。那么，二十多年的辩论，究竟引发了什么样的深刻思考？两位经济学大师到底争论的是什么？ 分歧之一——关于产业政策的定义 林毅夫与张维迎的辩论，从产业政策的定义开始便产生了分歧。对于林毅夫而言，产业政策的范围广泛，只要是政府 为了地区发展采取的有意 ...

Group 1 - The 2026 Africa Mining Investment Conference commenced in Cape Town, South Africa, featuring high-level dialogues and investment forums [3] - The United States, EU, and Japan have formed a strategic partnership on critical minerals, aiming to establish a "de-risked" supply chain and address global market distortions [3][4] - The Forum on Resource Geopolitics and Economic Security (FORGE) initiative aims to reshape supply chains by coordinating procurement among member countries to ensure price stability and protect local processing projects [4][5] Group 2 - Resource supply countries include Australia, Canada, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, while technology and investment countries include the US, Japan, South Korea, and parts of the EU [4] - South Korea has been appointed as the first chair of FORGE, tasked with initial organizational coordination until June 2026 [4] - The FORGE alliance plans to reach a memorandum of understanding on critical minerals by late February to early March 2026, establishing a comprehensive supply chain and trade rules independent of major competitors [4][5] Group 3 - The US has launched the "Project Vault," a $12 billion initiative to procure critical minerals for national strategic reserves, ensuring stable supply for advanced manufacturing sectors [6][7] - The plan focuses on approximately 50 essential minerals, particularly those used in clean energy technologies, aligning with the US Department of Energy and Department of Defense's critical mineral lists [6] - Australia has introduced a $1.2 billion National Critical Minerals Stockpile plan to secure essential minerals for its clean energy and defense industries, enhancing its reliability within the FORGE alliance [7][8] Group 4 - The US-Mexico Critical Minerals Action Plan aims to integrate Mexico's mineral resources into a North American supply chain, focusing on clean energy minerals and potential price adjustment mechanisms [10][11] - This plan represents a specific implementation of the FORGE initiative in North America, ensuring that Mexico's resources serve the supply chain needs of the US and its allies [11][12] - The upcoming USMCA review will address strengthening North American supply chains for critical minerals and electric vehicle components, potentially reshaping trade rules [12] Group 5 - The FORGE initiative and associated plans may disrupt global trade norms, as they introduce mechanisms that could interfere with market pricing and violate WTO principles [13][14] - The US's approach may lead to inefficiencies and increased costs in the global economy, as countries may be forced to choose sides, impacting resource sovereignty and development paths [14]

Group 1 - The global antitrust landscape is entering a new era shaped by significant changes in technology, economy, and politics, with antitrust laws becoming crucial tools for industrial policy and geopolitical strategy [1] - By 2026, the trend of blurring lines between antitrust law and industrial policy is expected to intensify, as governments prioritize economic growth, industrial resilience, labor markets, and technological competitiveness [1] - Antitrust enforcement is increasingly influenced by industrial policy, economic growth agendas, trade reshaping, and public interest considerations in the Asia-Pacific region, despite existing differences among countries [2] Group 2 - Major procedural reforms are impacting how global antitrust enforcement agencies assess transactions, creating both challenges and opportunities for transaction planning and execution [2] - The scrutiny of foreign direct investment is increasing, shifting focus from the investor's origin to the sensitivity of the assets involved, particularly in critical technologies and infrastructure [2] - Antitrust enforcement is undergoing a profound transformation, with agencies investing in data analysis and AI tools, enhancing their ability to initiate investigations and identify cases more effectively [3] Group 3 - The focus of antitrust enforcement is expanding beyond traditional product markets to include labor market impacts, marking a significant shift in merger review standards [4] - Enforcement actions in high-risk sectors like life sciences and technology are testing the boundaries of competition law, integrating economic analysis with industrial policy and digital governance [4] - Procedural compliance has become a strategic necessity, with regulators exercising broader investigative powers and adopting a zero-tolerance approach to procedural violations [4] Group 4 - The emergence of complex cross-jurisdictional litigation driven by antitrust allegations necessitates a coordinated global response strategy from companies [5] - Successful defenses increasingly rely on integrated, technology-enabled global defense systems to address the growing collaboration between enforcement agencies and plaintiffs [5] - Navigating the complex regulatory environment requires a global, technology-supported strategy and deep cross-disciplinary expertise, especially in a year marked by significant regulatory changes [5]

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石： 供需持续宽松 建议空配为主 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 需求方面：国内需求小幅回落但高于去年同期，主因是国内钢厂检修后常规复产增多，但钢 材价格走弱导致钢厂利润水平环比回落，且钢厂盈利水平低于去年同期，终端需求处于季节性淡 季，预计短期铁矿石需求仍保持弱势。 原材料：程 鹏 库存方面：钢厂端进口矿库存持续回升加速，钢厂春节节前季节性补库进入末端，补库支撑 作用边际减弱；港口库存仍保持累积态势且处于近五年最高水平，叠加现货价格走弱，预期短期 港口库存累积压力仍保持高压态势。同时，注意贸易受限库存的潜在抛售风险。 原材料： 冯艳成 观点：宏观面驱动有所减弱，短期铁矿石供需矛盾持续积累，补库需求对价格支撑力度持续 减弱，虽然供给进入淡季但同比保持高增，价格高度仍受产业链利润限制且补库需求驱动已经进 入最后阶段，短期价格高点已经出现，建议反弹空配为主。 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z ...

针对中小企业家的诉求，行业专家从政策解读、法治保障、市场运作等多维度提供深度解析与专业支 撑。"公平竞争是优化营商环境的核心要义。"工信部原中小企业司副司长王建翔围绕破除隐性壁垒、强 化政府采购支持中小企业发展等政策措施展开深入分析；中国中小商业企业协会科技总监鞠维刚聚焦金 融工具赋能科技成果转化，表示"科技成果不落地转化，便是沉睡的智力财富"；最高人民检察院检察听 证员孙莹就涉企刑事案件落实"少捕慎诉慎押"政策提出专业见解，认为"司法温度铸就企业信心，法治 护航方能行稳致远"。 与会代表委员结合自身履职领域作出积极回应与前瞻展望。全国人大代表、北京大学国际关系学院教授 李义虎从宏观战略视角，精准分析中小企业发展面临的机遇与挑战，表示"中小企业是国民经济的毛细 血管，是产业生态的关键一环，其活力直接关系经济大盘稳定"。全国政协委员王汝芳、曲永义分别结 合产业经济观察经验，就科技创新突破、产业升级路径、政策协同落地等提出前瞻性思考。(经济日报 记者敖蓉) 近日，由中国中小商业企业协会主办的"2026全国两会代表委员与中小企业座谈会"在北京举行。多位全 国人大代表、政协委员，以及政策研究、产业经济、法律、金融等领 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the total net asset value of public funds in the market exceeded 37.64 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, marking a historical high in scale [1] - Despite fluctuations in the A-share market, the scale of index funds continued to grow, providing stable incremental capital to the market [1] - Equity funds maintained a high position overall, with active equity fund positions at historically high levels, focusing on technology and large-cycle sectors [1] Group 2 - Multiple fund managers expressed a relatively optimistic outlook for the medium to long-term trends in the capital market for 2026 [1] - The ongoing implementation of growth-stabilizing policies and accelerated industrial policy rollout are expected to enhance the market's internal driving force [1] - The role of public funds in serving long-term investments and the real economy is anticipated to become more prominent [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the growth and innovation of Xiamen Hongfa Signal Electronic Co., Ltd., which is set to achieve a revenue of 750 million yuan by 2025, with a growth rate of 23.8% [1] - The company is experiencing strong demand for its third-generation signal relay products, primarily used for battery safety detection, and is actively expanding into sectors such as new energy, testing equipment, and smart home technology [1] - Recent tariff adjustments by the State Council are expected to significantly reduce costs for the company, particularly through a reduction in the import tariff for contact wire materials from 8% to 5%, potentially saving the company over 3 million yuan annually [1][2] Group 2 - Hongfa Signal has established itself as a leading player in the global market, achieving a 37.2% market share by 2025, and has been recognized as a key "little giant" enterprise focused on specialized and innovative development [2] - The company has faced challenges related to high import taxes on core raw materials and supply chain instability, but local government agencies have actively engaged with the company to address these issues and facilitate tariff reductions [2][3] - The Xiamen government has implemented a research mechanism covering over 300 key enterprises across ten industries, leading to the successful proposal of over 20 tariff reduction suggestions, which have collectively reduced costs for local businesses by over 100 million yuan annually [3]

Core Insights - The A-share market has returned to the 4100-point level after ten years, with over 80% of fund managers having never experienced this level before [2][3] - The current market dynamics are shaped by a new generation of fund managers who are navigating a "structural bull market" rather than a traditional bull market driven by leverage [3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index first crossed the 4000-point mark on October 28, 2025, and reached 4100 points on January 9, 2026, marking a significant recovery since July 2015 [3] - Over 83% of fund managers, approximately 3429 out of 4108, have started their careers after 2016, indicating a generational shift in the investment landscape [3] - The current bull market is characterized by a focus on industry policies and technological innovation rather than the leverage-driven dynamics of previous bull markets [4][5] Group 2: Investment Strategies - New fund managers are adopting a balanced and disciplined approach, emphasizing the importance of maintaining their investment philosophy and avoiding impulsive trading behaviors [6][7] - Experienced fund managers stress the need for a return to fundamental research and a focus on valuation and performance matching, moving away from mere point comparisons [4][9] - The current market is seen as more resilient, driven by household savings and ETF allocations, contrasting with the leverage-driven market of 2015 [4][5] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - New fund managers face challenges such as a lack of historical market experience, which may lead to over-reliance on short-term data and insufficient risk management [8] - However, their lack of historical baggage allows them to embrace new technologies and adapt to current market demands more readily [8] - Experienced managers highlight the evolving role of experience, which now focuses more on risk management and emotional resilience rather than solely on stock selection [9][10] Group 4: Institutional Responses - Fund companies are addressing the experience gap through structured training and mentorship programs, pairing seasoned managers with newer ones to facilitate knowledge transfer [11] - The ideal fund manager team should combine different levels of experience to balance growth, value, and quantitative strategies [11] - Companies are adapting their strategies based on their risk appetite, with more aggressive firms favoring new talent while conservative firms prefer experienced managers [11]