Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View - The Middle East crisis shows signs of easing, with a significant decline in crude oil prices. Coupled with the domestic de - stocking trend, zinc prices are rebounding. Overseas mine disturbances are expected to increase, and the mine end strongly supports zinc prices. The smelter's profit is maintained, and the domestic demand for zinc ore remains high. The downstream consumption is continuously recovering, and the inflection point of zinc ingot social inventory has appeared. If the Middle East crisis eases later, the upward elasticity of zinc prices is still worth looking forward to, and the long - term outlook for both mine supply and downstream consumption remains optimistic. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$0.68 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 23,430 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -55 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 23,500 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -35 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 23,400 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -85 yuan/ton. [1] - **Futures**: On March 31, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,625 yuan/ton and closed at 23,480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 97,313 lots, and the holding volume was 91,543 lots. The highest intraday price reached 23,660 yuan/ton, and the lowest reached 23,460 yuan/ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of March 31, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 248,200 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 114,500 tons, a decrease of 775 tons from the previous trading day. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Since March, the copper futures price has broken downward after fluctuations, which is quite different from the previous market expectation. The adjustment of copper price is mainly due to the impact of the Middle - East situation on market sentiment, high valuations, uncertainties in the computing power investment sector, and high inventory [1]. - The large - caliber visible inventory of copper has reached a high level, approaching the peak before the supply - side reform in 2016 - 2017. Although the inventory has decreased recently, it still reflects the problem of high inventory in the early stage. The downstream demand is picking up as the copper price drops [2]. - In the medium - to long - term, the logic of copper multi - allocation trading is basically stable, and the evolution of the war situation is the biggest variable. The copper price may continue to decline under the drag of risk - aversion sentiment or form strong support depending on the development of the situation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Reasons for Copper Price Adjustment - The Middle - East situation has entered the fifth week. The export of oil and gas and related commodities through the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, and some oil, gas and electrolytic aluminum production capacities have been reduced or shut down, which has greatly affected the multi - allocation sentiment of precious metals and base metals. The financial market's risk - aversion sentiment has gradually increased, the oil and gas prices have soared, the dollar is relatively strong, and the market is concerned about the re - inflation risk, which has changed the liquidity expectation centered on the Fed's monetary policy and may affect the global economic growth expectation [1]. - The precious metals and non - ferrous metal sectors led by copper have experienced a strong upward trend at the beginning of the year. The futures prices and related stock market targets are at high premium levels. The increasing risk - aversion sentiment makes the high - valuation sectors vulnerable to selling pressure [1]. - The Middle - East situation has increased the uncertainty of the computing power investment sector, and the related premium trading has cooled down [1]. - Under the boost of the precious metal sector, the base metals have had obvious cumulative increases in the fourth quarter of last year and before the Spring Festival. The price digestion speed of the real - industry end is quite slow. There has been a significant increase in the visible inventory of base metals such as copper at home and abroad from the beginning of the year to around the Spring Festival [1]. 2. Market Inventory and Downstream Demand - The large - caliber visible inventory of copper, composed of overseas exchange inventories, domestic social inventories and bonded - area inventories, has approached 1.5 million tons at the beginning of the year, reaching the peak level before the 2016 - 2017 supply - side reform and significantly higher than the low level during the epidemic and twice as high as the more than 700,000 tons in the spring of last year [2]. - The uncertainty of copper tariff increases during the Trump administration has gradually increased the premium of LME copper and led to a sharp increase in US copper inventories. From the end of last year to the beginning of this year, with the cooling of the premium between the LME and domestic markets, the high copper price has delayed consumption, and there has been an obvious inflow into LME and domestic social inventories [2]. - The SMM copper social inventory jumped to 500,000 tons in the first week after the Spring Festival and reached a peak of 578,900 tons in early March. After the copper price effectively broke below the MA60 moving average and 98,000 last week, during the seasonal consumption peak season, the sentiment of mid - and downstream enterprises to replenish inventory at low prices was very obvious, and the inventory has dropped to 403,100 tons on Monday this week. Third - party research shows that as the copper price drops to the range of 91,000 - 96,000, the operating rate of intermediate copper products such as copper rods has increased significantly [2]. 3. Short - term and Medium - to Long - term Operation Logic of Copper Price - In the medium - to long - term, the logic of copper multi - allocation trading is basically stable, and the evolution of the war situation is the biggest variable. If the uncontrollable situation is expected to last for 3 months, which has a negative impact on economic growth, the copper price may continue to decline under the drag of risk - aversion sentiment, such as breaking below the key technical support of 91,000. If significant phased results related to the passage of the Strait of Hormuz are achieved within the 1 - 3 - month negotiation period, the current decline level has strong support and is likely to form a situation similar to that during the impact of the equal - tariff policy last year. In the most extreme negative scenario, it is difficult for the copper price to give back the gains since the supply disruption of large mines [4]. - On the one hand, the global supply of copper concentrates is still in short supply in the first quarter, and the high sulfuric acid price has prevented the TC from falling further. The probability of domestic smelters reducing production due to maintenance is relatively high in the second quarter. On the other hand, the long - term war situation will support the copper price at the cost end, such as the use of acid in hydrometallurgy and diesel - powered mining equipment. In addition, even if the war affects the global economic growth rate, the investment in power, new energy and other related fields can still benefit from relatively high growth rates, and copper is the most core industrial metal [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The Middle - East situation is slightly alleviated but expected to be volatile. Copper raw material supply remains tight, domestic refined copper consumption sentiment improves, and copper inventory is expected to be further digested, providing fundamental support for copper prices. Short - term copper prices may be volatile. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 94,000 - 96,500 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is 11,900 - 12,400 US dollars/ton [1][2]. - Aluminum: The Middle - East situation has eased, but market sentiment is volatile. Overseas aluminum supply is expected to remain tight due to plant maintenance and production cuts, and domestic downstream demand improvement may drive inventory reduction. The fundamentals provide stronger support for aluminum prices. Short - term aluminum prices may remain volatile. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 23,600 - 24,200 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is 3,220 - 3,300 US dollars/ton [4][5]. - Lead: Lead concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and the开工 rate of primary and secondary smelting enterprises has improved. The social inventory has decreased after the lead price decline. The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term shock range, and downstream enterprises may conduct strategic hedging. However, the high Shanghai - London ratio and high oil prices may put pressure on the lead price, and the lead price may further decline [7][8]. - Zinc: Zinc concentrate inventory has increased, and the import TC has continued to decline. The zinc price has entered a downward trend due to the weakening of the zinc industry and the pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment, Fed's monetary policy, and geopolitical conflicts [10][11]. - Tin: Tin supply is still constrained by raw material shortages, and the short - term supply increase is limited. The demand has marginally improved, and downstream enterprises' replenishment provides short - term support. However, due to geopolitical disturbances and the fall of the US interest - rate cut expectation, tin prices are expected to be weak. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 320,000 - 380,000 yuan/ton, and for the overseas LME tin is 41,000 - 47,000 US dollars/ton [12][13]. - Nickel: In the short term, the nickel price is expected to weaken due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the Fed's hawkish stance. In the medium term, the global nickel supply - demand situation is improving, and the nickel price has strong bottom support. It is not recommended to short. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price this week is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton. It is recommended to operate within the range [14][15]. - Lithium carbonate: The domestic lithium carbonate production continues to grow, and the weekly inventory increase is the highest since August last year. The supply may be affected if the negotiation on the Zimbabwean mineral export ban fails. The lithium battery demand is expected to be strong. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 150,000 - 168,000 yuan/ton [18][19]. - Alumina: The Guinea government may tighten bauxite exports, and the alumina smelting supply is tightening in the short term but remains in an oversupply situation in the long term. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,900 - 3,000 yuan/ton [21][22]. - Stainless steel: The stainless - steel price is supported by rising raw material costs and policy disturbances. However, the market supply is still loose, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to remain high and volatile. The reference range for the main contract is 14,100 - 14,650 yuan/ton [24][25]. - Cast aluminum alloy: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has increased, and the demand is expected to improve with the resumption of production. The short - term price is supported [27][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The US military action against Iran has put pressure on the market. The LME copper 3M contract closed down 1.33% to 12,120 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 95,150 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased by 350 to 359,825 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by about 40,000 tons [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Middle - East situation is volatile. Copper raw material supply is tight, and domestic consumption sentiment improves. Copper prices may be volatile in the short term [2]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The Middle - East situation is volatile. The LME aluminum 3M contract closed up 0.39% to 3,254 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,870 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract position decreased by 0.9 to 558,000 hands, and the aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 15,000 tons [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Middle - East situation has eased, but market sentiment is volatile. Overseas supply is tight, and domestic demand improvement may drive inventory reduction. Aluminum prices may remain volatile in the short term [5]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.21% to 16,459 yuan/ton. The LME lead 3S was flat at 1,901 US dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,300 yuan/ton. The domestic lead ingot social inventory decreased by 5,300 tons [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead concentrate TC has stopped falling, and the smelting enterprise's开工 rate has improved. The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term shock range, but there are also downward pressures [8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.58% to 23,071 yuan/ton. The LME zinc 3S rose 10.5 to 3,072 US dollars/ton. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 5,100 tons [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc concentrate inventory has increased, and the zinc price has entered a downward trend. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment, Fed's monetary policy, and geopolitical conflicts [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed down 1.03% to 348,790 yuan/ton. The production of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi has recovered, and the downstream demand has marginally improved. The social inventory decreased by 2,770 tons [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin supply is constrained by raw material shortages, and the demand has marginally improved. Tin prices are expected to be weak [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed down 0.2% to 135,860 yuan/ton. The spot premium of various brands was stable, and the cost of nickel ore and nickel iron was flat [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, the nickel price is expected to weaken, but in the medium term, it has strong bottom support. It is recommended to operate within the range [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 0.18%. The production increased by 2.6% to 24,814 tons, and the inventory increased by 616 tons to 99,489 tons [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The production continues to grow, and the inventory increase is high. The supply may be affected, and the demand is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to market changes [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index closed down 1.01% to 2,957 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price rose 5 yuan/ton, and the overseas FOB price rose 12 US dollars/ton. The futures inventory increased by 2,400 tons [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Guinea government may tighten bauxite exports, and the alumina smelting supply is tightening in the short term but remains in an oversupply situation in the long term. It is advisable to wait and see [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract closed down 0.69% to 14,390 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi were flat, and the social inventory increased by 3.04% [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless - steel price is supported by rising costs and policy disturbances, but the supply is loose and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain high and volatile [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price fell 0.55% to 22,760 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased, and the inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost has increased, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is supported [28].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The Middle - East situation is still uncertain. The copper price declined and then rebounded. In the future, the copper inventory is expected to be further digested, providing stronger support for the copper price from the fundamental perspective. The short - term copper price may continue to test the bottom [1][2]. - The Middle - East situation has eased to some extent, but the risk sentiment in the aluminum market has not reversed. Overseas aluminum supply is expected to remain tight, and the improvement of domestic downstream demand is expected to drive the inventory to gradually decline. The fundamentals provide enhanced marginal support for the aluminum price [4][5]. - The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term oscillation range, and the downstream battery enterprises may conduct strategic buying for hedging. However, due to factors such as high oil prices and the inflow of overseas lead ingots, the lead price has increased long - short contradictions and rising volatility, and there is a possibility of further decline [7][8]. - The zinc price has entered a downward trend. The zinc industry continues to be weak. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment, the Fed's monetary policy guidance, and geopolitical conflicts [9][10]. - The tin supply is still constrained by the tight raw materials. The demand has marginally improved, but considering geopolitical disturbances and the decline in the US interest rate cut expectation, the tin price is expected to run weakly [11][12]. - In the short term, the nickel price is expected to weaken, but in the medium term, the global nickel supply - demand situation is improving, and the nickel price has strong bottom support and limited downward space. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying range - trading strategy [13][14]. - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong. With recent disturbances in the mining end and a tight - balance pattern, the willingness of funds to short has decreased. Attention should be paid to changes in positions, industrial - driving events, and spot premiums [16][17]. - For alumina, the ore price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, but the medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains difficult to change. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach [19][20]. - The stainless - steel market currently shows weak macro and demand, while the mining end and shipping costs provide strong support. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the progress of the RKAB application approval by the Indonesian government [22][23]. - The cost of cast aluminum alloy has recovered, and with the improvement of downstream demand and supply - side disturbances, the short - term price still has support [25][26]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: The LME 3M copper contract closed down 1.05% to $12,092/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 94,670 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 11,800 to 359,275 tons, and the domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts decreased by 11,405 to 262,710 tons. The spot discount in East China slightly widened to 75 yuan/ton, and the spot premium in Guangdong decreased to 20 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import profit was about 500 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 40 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Views**: The short - term copper price may continue to test the bottom. The operating range of the SHFE copper main contract is expected to be 93,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M copper is 11,900 - 12,400 dollars/ton [2]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: The LME 3M aluminum contract closed up 0.62% to $3,245/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 23,810 yuan/ton. The SHFE weighted contract positions decreased by 11,000 to 560,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,451 to 404,811 tons. The three - place inventory of aluminum ingots increased, and the aluminum rod inventory continued to decline. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 428,000 tons. The spot discount of aluminum ingots in East China narrowed to 140 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy Views**: The fundamentals provide enhanced marginal support for the aluminum price. The operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to be 23,600 - 24,200 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M aluminum is 3,200 - 3,280 dollars/ton [5]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: The SHFE lead index closed up 0.14% to 16,421 yuan/ton. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, the LME 3S lead rose 6.5 to $1,891/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot average price was 16,275 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was at par. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 54,568 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 283,350 tons [7]. - **Strategy Views**: The lead price has increased long - short contradictions and rising volatility, and there is a possibility of further decline [8]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: The SHFE zinc index closed up 0.77% to 22,977 yuan/ton. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, the LME 3S zinc rose 31 to $3,075/ton. The SMM 0 zinc ingot average price was 22,860 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 99,824 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 117,100 tons. The national main - market zinc ingot social inventory on March 23 was 219,500 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons from March 19 [9]. - **Strategy Views**: The zinc price has entered a downward trend. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment, the Fed's monetary policy guidance, and geopolitical conflicts [10]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: On March 24, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 347,970 yuan/ton, up 5.99%. The SHFE inventory was 8,978 tons, a decrease of 508 tons, and the LME inventory was 8,805 tons, a decrease of 115 tons. As of March 20, the national main - market tin ingot social inventory was 11,035 tons, a decrease of 2,770 tons [11]. - **Strategy Views**: The tin price is expected to run weakly. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 380,000 yuan/ton, and that of the overseas LME tin is 39,000 - 47,000 dollars/ton [12]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: On March 24, the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 133,480 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The spot premiums of various brands were stable. The cost of nickel ore was unchanged, and the price of nickel iron slightly declined [13]. - **Strategy Views**: In the short term, the nickel price is expected to weaken, but in the medium term, it has strong bottom support. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying range - trading strategy. The operating range of the SHFE nickel this week is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M nickel is 16,000 - 20,000 dollars/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Quotes**: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 149,451 yuan, up 3.52%. The LC2605 contract closed at 152,940 yuan, up 2.62%. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,250 yuan [16]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong. The operating range of the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 146,000 - 164,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: On March 24, the alumina index fell 2.39% to 3,031 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price rose 15 yuan/ton to 2,735 yuan/ton. The MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $310/ton, and the import profit was 38 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts were 406,300 tons, an increase of 900 tons [19]. - **Strategy Views**: The ore price is expected to rise in the short term, but the medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,900 - 3,100 yuan/ton [20]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,290 yuan/ton on Tuesday, up 1.82%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets increased, and the raw material prices were mostly stable. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory declined [22]. - **Strategy Views**: The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. The operating range of the main contract is 13,900 - 14,500 yuan/ton [23]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded. The main AD2604 contract closed up 0.27% to 22,585 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions decreased, and the trading volume shrank. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price decreased, and the imported ADC12 price remained stable [25]. - **Strategy Views**: The short - term price still has support [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - After the Middle East crisis stabilizes, the upward elasticity of zinc prices is still expected, and the long - term outlook for both the mine supply and downstream consumption remains optimistic [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$24.61 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 240 yuan/ton to 22,670 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -65 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 230 yuan/ton to 22,740 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -30 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 240 yuan/ton to 22,660 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -75 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On March 23, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,000 yuan/ton and closed at 22,800 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 120,371 lots, and the open interest was 103,488 lots. The highest price during the day was 23,025 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,675 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of March 23, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 255,200 tons, a decrease of 10,900 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 117,175 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - After the absolute price drops, the enthusiasm for spot purchasing at low prices is high, the spot discount continues to be repaired, and the social inventory has declined for two consecutive statistical days. The imported ore TC is still in a state of slight decline, and the price of rich ore has dropped to negative. After adding by - products, the domestic smelting profit is acceptable, and the smelting enthusiasm is high, with a high rigid demand for ore, which forms a favorable support for zinc prices. Due to the continuous rise in overseas energy prices, there is a possibility of production cuts overseas on the supply side. Although the market sentiment is still unstable, zinc prices have relatively fully priced in the risks. If the Middle East crisis stabilizes later, the upward elasticity of zinc prices is still expected [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Although the Middle - East situation has eased, the possibility of continued conflict remains high, and the sentiment has not fully reversed. The supply of copper raw materials is continuously tight, domestic refined copper consumption sentiment has improved, and future copper inventories are expected to be further digested, providing stronger support for copper prices from the fundamental perspective. Short - term copper prices may continue to test the bottom [1][2]. - Aluminum: The Middle - East situation has eased, but the market risk sentiment has not reversed. The supply concern has been alleviated due to Bahrain's plan to export 40% - 60% of aluminum products through the Jeddah Port in Saudi Arabia. Overseas aluminum supply is expected to remain tight due to overseas smelter maintenance and production cuts. Domestic downstream demand improvement is expected to drive inventory reduction. If the war situation does not cool down significantly, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend while digesting inventories [3][4]. - Lead: The dominant inventory of lead concentrates has declined, and the import TC of lead concentrates has increased, with the TC of lead concentrates stabilizing. The operation of primary smelting enterprises has recovered. The dominant inventory of lead scrap has increased, and the operation of secondary smelting enterprises has recovered to a limited extent. The factory inventories of both primary and secondary smelting enterprises have declined, and social inventories have also decreased after the fall of lead prices. The current lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term oscillation range, and downstream battery enterprises may carry out strategic buying for hedging. However, the high Shanghai - London ratio has led to a decrease in exports of battery enterprises and an inflow of overseas lead ingots. Coupled with the recession narrative caused by high oil prices, the non - ferrous metals sector is under pressure, and there may be off - industry funds shorting Shanghai lead. The long - short contradiction of lead prices has increased, and the volatility has continued to rise, with the possibility of further decline in lead prices [6][7]. - Zinc: The dominant inventory of zinc concentrates has increased, the import TC of zinc concentrates has continued to decline, and the domestic TC has stabilized. The sharp decline in zinc prices has led to a rapid decline in mining and smelting profits. Downstream galvanizing plants and die - casting zinc alloy plants have actively replenished inventory at low prices, but the overall domestic inventory remains at a high level, and the zinc industry continues to be in a weak state. High oil prices have led to a recession narrative, and the market is discussing the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates this year. The non - ferrous metals sector is under pressure, and zinc prices have entered a downward trend. The sustainability of downstream inventory replenishment, the Fed's monetary policy guidance, and the geopolitical conflict situation need to be further concerned [8][9]. - Tin: The supply side of tin has improved marginally compared with before the Spring Festival, but it still faces the constraint of raw material shortage. Under the pressure on both the mining and secondary ends, the release of smelting capacity is slow, and the short - term supply increase is expected to be limited. The demand side has improved marginally, and short - term consumption maintains a weak recovery pattern. Downstream enterprises' inventory replenishment at low prices provides short - term support for tin prices. However, considering the continuous geopolitical disturbances and the significant decline in the US interest - rate cut expectation, global risk assets are under pressure, and tin prices are expected to run weakly [10][11]. - Nickel: In the short term, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to an increase in the long - term inflation expectation in the US, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting has taken a hawkish stance. Risk assets are generally under pressure, and nickel prices are expected to follow the downward trend. In the medium term, the improvement trend of global nickel element supply and demand is certain, and nickel prices have strong bottom support with limited downward space. It is not recommended to short. It is suggested to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy and operate within the range [12][13]. - Lithium Carbonate: There are more concerns about the macro - economic outlook, and the risk - aversion sentiment has increased, putting pressure on metal prices. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the high - level domestic apparent consumption still has room for growth. Downstream inventory replenishment at low prices provides support. Recently, there have been occasional disturbances in the mining end. Under the tight - balance pattern of lithium carbonate, short - sellers should stop losses cautiously. The changes in the position on the futures market, industry - driving events, and spot premium and discount need to be focused on in the future [16][17]. - Alumina: The Guinea government is expected to introduce policies to tighten bauxite exports in early April to boost bauxite prices and increase taxes. It is expected that the bauxite price will be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. The short - term maintenance of alumina smelting has increased, leading to a tight supply, but the long - term oversupply pattern is difficult to change. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended. Although the expectation of the mining end has improved, the current futures price has a high premium, and the long - term oversupply pattern and the increase in registered warehouse receipts will continue to suppress the futures price [19][20]. - Stainless Steel: The overall supply of the stainless - steel market remains in a loose pattern, the speed of social inventory digestion is slow, and the market has sufficient circulating goods. The release of downstream terminal demand is weak, and the performance in the traditional peak season in March is lower than expected. The real - estate industry is in a downturn, which is the main factor dragging down the overall consumption. The home - appliance industry is weak, and the production schedule of washing machines and other products in March has declined year - on - year. Enterprises mainly purchase for rigid demand. Overall, the stainless - steel market is in a game pattern of weak macro - economic situation and demand, while the mining end and shipping costs provide strong support. It is expected that the price will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [22][23]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: The cost of casting aluminum alloy has increased, and the demand is expected to continue to improve with the resumption of work and production of downstream enterprises. Coupled with disturbances on the supply side and tight raw material supply, the short - term price still has certain support [25][26]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Quotes**: Trump's suspension of the strike on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure led to a rise in copper prices. The LME 3M copper contract closed up 3.27% at $12,221 per ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 94,840 yuan per ton. LME inventory increased by 5,125 tons to 347,475 tons, mainly from North American warehouses. The cancellation warrant ratio declined, and Cash/3M remained at a discount. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by more than 50,000 tons compared with last Thursday, bonded - area inventory decreased, and SHFE daily warehouse receipts decreased by 14,000 to 274,000 tons. The spot discount in East China slightly expanded to 50 yuan per ton, and downstream procurement sentiment remained relatively active. The spot premium in Guangdong decreased to 50 yuan per ton, and sellers were more active in shipping. The domestic copper spot import profit was about 500 yuan per ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference returned to near zero, and the scrap copper price was weaker [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Middle - East situation has eased, but the conflict may continue, and the sentiment has not fully reversed. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, domestic refined copper consumption sentiment has improved, and future copper inventories are expected to be further digested, providing stronger support for copper prices from the fundamental perspective. Short - term copper prices may continue to test the bottom. The operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract is expected to be 93,000 - 96,000 yuan per ton, and that of the LME 3M copper contract is 11,800 - 12,500 US dollars per ton [2]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: Trump's suspension of the strike on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure led to an improvement in market risk appetite. The LME 3M aluminum contract closed up 1.05% at $3,225 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,750 yuan per ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 15,000 tons to 571,000 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 403,000 tons. The social inventory of aluminum ingots slightly decreased compared with last Thursday, and the social inventory of aluminum rods decreased by about 20,000 tons. The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to increase, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased at low prices. The spot discount of aluminum ingots in East China narrowed to 150 yuan per ton, and the market receiving sentiment was okay. LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 428,000 tons, the cancellation warrant ratio declined, and Cash/3M remained at a premium [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Middle - East situation has eased, but the market risk sentiment has not reversed. The supply concern has been alleviated due to Bahrain's plan to export 40% - 60% of aluminum products through the Jeddah Port in Saudi Arabia. Overseas aluminum supply is expected to remain tight due to overseas smelter maintenance and production cuts. Domestic downstream demand improvement is expected to drive inventory reduction. If the war situation does not cool down significantly, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend while digesting inventories. After the effective inventory reduction, the fundamentals will provide stronger support for aluminum prices. The operating range of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is expected to be 23,200 - 24,200 yuan per ton, and that of the LME 3M aluminum contract is 3,160 - 3,260 US dollars per ton [4]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: On Monday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.65% at 16,399 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 133,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, the LME 3S lead increased by $3.5 to $1,884.5 per ton, with a total position of 186,900 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,275 yuan per ton, and the average price of secondary refined lead was also 16,275 yuan per ton, with a refined - scrap price difference at par. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,800 yuan per ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 58,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 60 yuan per ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 25 yuan per ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 284,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancellation warrant was 7,900 tons. The foreign - market cash - 3S contract basis was - 39.51 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 141.4 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the Shanghai - London ratio of the lead ingot was 1.263, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 674.41 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on March 23 was 63,100 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons compared with March 19 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The dominant inventory of lead concentrates has declined, and the import TC of lead concentrates has increased, with the TC of lead concentrates stabilizing. The operation of primary smelting enterprises has recovered. The dominant inventory of lead scrap has increased, and the operation of secondary smelting enterprises has recovered to a limited extent. The factory inventories of both primary and secondary smelting enterprises have declined, and social inventories have also decreased after the fall of lead prices. The current lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term oscillation range, and downstream battery enterprises may carry out strategic buying for hedging. However, the high Shanghai - London ratio has led to a decrease in exports of battery enterprises and an inflow of overseas lead ingots. Coupled with the recession narrative caused by high oil prices, the non - ferrous metals sector is under pressure, and there may be off - industry funds shorting Shanghai lead. The long - short contradiction of lead prices has increased, and the volatility has continued to rise, with the possibility of further decline in lead prices [7]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: On Monday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.60% at 22,801 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 191,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, the LME 3S zinc decreased by $42.5 to $3,044 per ton, with a total position of 206,100 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 22,670 yuan per ton, the Shanghai basis was - 65 yuan per ton, the Tianjin basis was - 75 yuan per ton, the Guangdong basis was - 30 yuan per ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was - 35 yuan per ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 100,600 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 65 yuan per ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 30 yuan per ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 117,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancellation warrant was 6,100 tons. The foreign - market cash - 3S contract basis was - 24.61 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 34.17 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the Shanghai - London ratio of the zinc ingot was 1.087, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 2,342.35 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on March 23 was 219,500 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons compared with March 19. After the continuous decline of Shanghai zinc, downstream enterprises actively replenished inventory at low prices [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The dominant inventory of zinc concentrates has increased, the import TC of zinc concentrates has continued to decline, and the domestic TC has stabilized. The sharp decline in zinc prices has led to a rapid decline in mining and smelting profits. Downstream galvanizing plants and die - casting zinc alloy plants have actively replenished inventory at low prices, but the overall domestic inventory remains at a high level, and the zinc industry continues to be in a weak state. High oil prices have led to a recession narrative, and the market is discussing the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates this year. The non - ferrous metals sector is under pressure, and zinc prices have entered a downward trend. The sustainability of downstream inventory replenishment, the Fed's monetary policy guidance, and the geopolitical conflict situation need to be further concerned [9]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: On March 23, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 348,300 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4.14% compared with the previous day. The SHFE inventory was 8,978 tons, a decrease of 508 tons compared with the previous day. The LME inventory was 8,805 tons, a decrease of 115 tons compared with the previous day. On the supply side, with the resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival, the operating rates of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have rebounded from the holiday low, and the industry's production activities have entered a mild recovery stage. The resumption of production in Yunnan is relatively faster, and the improvement in operation is more obvious; although there is also a recovery in Jiangxi, the recovery amplitude is relatively limited, and the overall recovery slope is gentle. On the demand side, affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, downstream consumption significantly shrank. In March, the improvement in terminal actual purchases is still limited, and there has been no substantial recovery. After the sharp decline of tin prices last week, downstream enterprises actively replenished inventory, driving a significant decrease in inventory. As of March 20, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 11,035 tons, a decrease of 2,770 tons compared with the previous week [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply side of tin has improved marginally compared with before the Spring Festival, but it still faces the constraint of raw material shortage. Under the pressure on both the mining and secondary ends, the release of smelting capacity is slow, and the short - term supply increase is expected to be limited. The demand side has improved marginally, and short - term consumption maintains a weak recovery pattern. Downstream enterprises' inventory replenishment at low prices provides short - term support for tin prices. However, considering the continuous geopolitical disturbances and the significant decline in the US interest - rate cut expectation, global risk assets are under pressure, and tin prices are expected to run weakly. The operating range of the domestic main contract is expected to be 300,000 - 360,000 yuan per ton, and that of the overseas LME tin is 39,000 - 45,000 US dollars per ton [11]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: On March 23, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 132,980 yuan per ton,

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with a downward - driving trend but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decisions, geopolitical situations, and supply - demand relationships. Different metals have different price trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Tuesday, the Shanghai copper contract's position shifted to the 2605 contract at the end of the session, and the price turned down. After the contract change, the domestic spot copper was reported at 100,220 yuan, with discounts in Shanghai and Guangdong. Technically, attention should be paid to the performance in the dense moving - average area. The Fed is likely to "stand pat" this week, and the core of the market is the war situation. The decline in copper prices is supported by spot buying interest, but the uncertain war situation and high visible inventory may lead Shanghai copper to seek support at 98,000 yuan or even lower. The intensity of the shift of market speculation sentiment to risk - aversion is worthy of attention [2] Aluminum and Alumina - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated, and the spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China widened. The total social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods reached 1.72 million tons, the highest in recent years. However, production cuts in Qatar and Bahrain under the background of low overseas inventory intensified supply concerns. Aluminum prices fluctuated sharply at historical highs, and the previous high level was a resistance. The cast - aluminum - alloy market was mediocre, and the price continued to fluctuate with aluminum prices. The domestic alumina operating capacity stabilized at around 94 million tons after a decline, and the oversupply situation improved. The index in various regions rose by 10 - 20 yuan today. The short - term market is affected by the expected mineral - restriction policy in Guinea [3] Zinc - Domestic zinc ingots need to reduce prices to destock before price stabilization can be seen. The zinc - concentrate inventory of smelters has rebounded, and the domestic - mine TC has rebounded first. Concerns about the marginal tightening of macro - liquidity have put pressure on zinc prices. The de - stocking rhythm in the peak season should be continuously tracked. Shanghai zinc has fallen below the 24,000 - yuan integer mark, and there is still room for further decline. The annual oversupply expectation remains unchanged, and the general direction is to short on rebounds [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated in a narrow range, and the market trading was active. The market is worried about the Fed's liquidity control, and the strong US dollar has put overall pressure on the market. The spot price of Jinchuan nickel has declined, and the price of high - nickel pig iron with a grade of 10 - 12% has increased by 3 yuan per point, reaching 1,095 yuan per point. The rebound in upstream prices has continued to drive up the mid - stream prices and provided cost support. In the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment. The pure - nickel inventory has increased by 3,000 tons to 87,500 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 20,000 tons to 998,000 tons. Attention should be paid to further changes in Indonesian policies, and the overall trend is a weak shock [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed down with a reduction in positions, and the short - term price was under pressure at the MA60 moving average. The market is highly concerned about the risk of the Middle - East situation. The overnight rebound of the US stock market and the NVIDIA annual conference's promotion of the computing - power demand outlook have temporarily eased the decline of tin prices. On the supply side, it is expected to maintain a stable supply trend, and Steel Union expects the domestic refined - tin output to be in the normal production schedule in March. It is expected that the tin price may fluctuate towards 350,000 yuan [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded in a volatile manner, and the market trading was active. The downstream production situation was good, and the lithium - iron - phosphate enterprises were still relatively active in production. The total market inventory decreased by 400 tons to 99,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,200 tons to 16,300 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 200 tons to 44,000 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 37,000 tons. The overall destocking speed has slowed down, and the change in the inventory structure is worthy of attention. The decline in smelter inventory has slowed down, and the confidence of traders in hoarding goods has wavered, and they have started to sell to the downstream. In terms of production, the lithium - carbonate production has returned to a high level at the beginning of March, and the weekly production has reached a new high. The lithium - carbonate futures price fluctuates, and the fundamentals are stronger than the expected end. It is advisable to consider going long on the near - month spread [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon futures closed down in a volatile manner. On the supply side, the weekly supply increased slightly. The output in the Southwest region was low, the resumption of production of leading enterprises in Xinjiang accelerated, and the operation in the Northwest production area was stable. On the demand side, the operation rate of organic silicon increased slightly, but downstream procurement was cautious, and the price support was limited. The polysilicon market was weak, the operation rate of small and medium - sized manufacturers declined, and the willingness to stock up on raw materials was insufficient. Affected by the energy conflict before, the cost expectation has increased. Currently, the market has returned to fundamental trading, and it is expected that the industrial - silicon price will be mainly in a weak shock [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon price continued to run weakly. According to SMM data, the average price of N - type dense material was 43,000 yuan per ton, a decrease of 500 yuan per ton compared with the previous day, and the market bearish sentiment was strong. The resumption of production in the industry in March was slow, and the resumption of some small and medium - sized manufacturers was postponed due to the market situation. As the "rush - for - export" window period approaches, the support of downstream battery - sheet orders has weakened, the price has fallen under pressure, the silicon - wafer segment has also weakened, and the market's willingness to bottom - fish and stock up on polysilicon is weak. SMM statistics show that the polysilicon enterprise inventory has reached 357,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons week - on - week, at a stage high. It is comprehensively judged that the polysilicon futures are likely to maintain a weak trend in the short term [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a "Cautiously Bullish" or "Cautiously Bearish" rating for various commodities and financial instruments. Cautiously Bullish ratings are given to indices (IH, IF, IC, IM), crude oil, methanol, rubber, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, gold, silver, aluminum, lithium carbonate, cotton, and corn. Cautiously Bearish ratings are given to rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, and apples [6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts, especially the US-Iran conflict, have a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets. The conflict has led to a rise in oil prices, fluctuations in the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, and has also affected the prices of various commodities and financial instruments [1]. - The market is in a transition from "expectation-driven" to "profit-driven" as the annual and first-quarter reports of listed companies are gradually disclosed. Industries with strong performance certainty are expected to attract more funds, while stocks without performance support may continue to be weak [4][13]. - The performance of different commodities and financial instruments is affected by a combination of factors, including supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and macroeconomic policies. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Daily Main News 3.1.1. International News - Japan plans to release about 80 million barrels of oil reserves starting from March 16 to ease the oil price increase caused by the tense Middle East situation. The government also plans to resume providing price subsidies to oil wholesalers on the 19th to stabilize oil prices [7]. 3.1.2. Domestic News - In 2025, the supervision and sampling pass rate of major food products in China reached 99.37%, and the overall food safety level continued to improve. Food production and operation enterprises have equipped a large number of food safety supervisors and staff, achieving full coverage of large-scale food enterprises [8]. 3.1.3. Industry News - In 2026, the first convertible bond conversion and capital increase case in the banking industry was realized by Chengdu Bank. The bank's registered capital increased from 3.736 billion yuan to 4.238 billion yuan, with a conversion rate of 99.94%. More than 80 city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, and rural credit cooperatives have completed registered capital changes this year, mostly through capital increases [9][10]. 3.2. Overseas Market Daily Returns - The report provides the daily returns of various overseas market products on March 12 and 13, 2026, including the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, London silver, LME aluminum, LME copper, LME zinc, LME nickel, ICE No. 11 sugar, ICE No. 2 cotton, CBOT soybeans, CBOT wheat, and CBOT corn [11]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1. Financial - **Stock Indices**: The US three major indices fluctuated, and the previous trading day's stock indices declined. The food and beverage sector led the rise, while the comprehensive sector led the decline. The market turnover was 2.42 trillion yuan. As the annual and first-quarter reports are disclosed, the market will shift from "expectation-driven" to "profit-driven", and stocks with strong performance certainty are expected to attract more funds. In the long term, the stock index is expected to return to an upward trend after the geopolitical risks ease [4][13]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The long-term Treasury bonds declined. The central bank's open market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 10.11 billion yuan last week, and short-term interest rates rose. The tense Middle East situation pushed up oil prices and inflation expectations, and the US Treasury bond yields continued to rise. The domestic economic data was good, and the government bond scale in the government work report was large. The short-term Treasury bond futures prices are still supported, but the long-term Treasury bond futures prices will continue to be under pressure [14][15]. 3.3.2. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Middle East situation remains tense, and the geopolitical risk premium supports the oil price to be bullish. However, as the conflict has not escalated to an extreme level, and the market has priced in the current intensity, the oil price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [2][16]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices rose. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants in China decreased. The overall operating load of methanol plants decreased slightly compared with the previous period but increased compared with the same period last year. The coastal methanol inventory is at a relatively high level and increased slightly. The expected import volume from March 6 to 22 is 260,000 - 270,000 tons [2][17]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber futures fluctuated at night. The rubber is in the low-yield season, and the supply elasticity is weak in the short term. The raw material rubber price is relatively firm. The demand side of all-steel tires has stable operation. The rubber price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [18]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins closed up on Friday. The prices of linear LL and some拉丝 PP of Sinopec and PetroChina showed different trends. The increase in the Middle East situation and the slight rebound of international oil prices have a positive impact on chemicals. The market sentiment is high, and the macro environment has a great impact on chemicals. The future trend depends on the actual operating conditions of the plants [19]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded slightly. The inventory of glass production enterprises decreased, and the inventory of soda ash production enterprises also decreased. The glass inventory needs to be further digested, and the soda ash industry has certain inventory digestion pressure in the short term. The commodity market is affected by the macro environment, and rational response is recommended [20][21]. 3.3.3. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The US-Iran conflict continues, and the high volatility of international oil prices pushes up global inflation expectations. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has significantly decreased, and the US dollar index and US Treasury bond yields have risen, suppressing the performance of precious metals in the short term. In the long term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise due to multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, inflation resistance, de-dollarization, and central bank gold purchases [22]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed down at night. The supply of concentrate is still tight, and the smelting profit is at the break-even point. The smelting output has increased in general. The power investment is stable, the automobile production and sales are growing, the household appliance production is decreasing, and the real estate market is weak. The copper price may fluctuate in a range in the short term [23]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed down at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has decreased, and the supply of concentrate is temporarily tight. The smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. The infrastructure investment growth rate is slowing down, the automobile production and sales are growing, the household appliance production is decreasing, and the real estate market is weak. The zinc price may follow the overall trend of non-ferrous metals [24]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fell at night. Bahrain Aluminum announced the suspension of three production lines, and Norsk Hydro's Qatar aluminum smelter will stop reducing production. The US-Iran conflict poses risks to the electrolytic aluminum supply in the Middle East. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz may cause a regional supply crisis. In the short term, the market is mainly driven by geopolitical factors, and there is no sign of improvement in the industrial level in the medium and short term. In the long term, low inventory, limited supply, and stable demand provide support for the aluminum price [25]. 3.3.4. Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated at night. The supply of coking coal increased, and the demand for coking coal and coke weakened due to the decline in hot metal production. However, with the end of environmental protection restrictions and the resumption of production, the hot metal production is expected to increase, which will drive the improvement of the demand for coking coal and coke. The geopolitical situation may also stimulate the coal price. The future trend depends on the hot metal production, mine operation, and geopolitical situation [26]. 3.3.5. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. The soybean harvest progress in Brazil is slower than the same period. The USDA report slightly increased the US soybean crushing volume. The Middle East situation has increased the market's concern about supply interruption, and the US soybean price has reached a new high. The domestic soybean meal price follows the US soybean price and is also affected by the news of customs inspection and export suspension. The protein meal is expected to be bullish and volatile in the short term [27]. - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of soybean and palm oil fluctuated and closed up at night, while the rapeseed oil price closed down slightly. The MPOB report shows that the palm oil production and export in Malaysia decreased in February, and the inventory decreased slightly. The increase in oil prices has driven the rise of vegetable oil prices. The macro environment is complex, and the oil prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [28]. - **Hogs**: The hog market shows regional differences. The price in the northern market fluctuated slightly, and the supply and demand are basically balanced. The price in the southern market is stable, and the supply is still abundant. The short-term hog price is expected to be under pressure [29]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar price fluctuated at night. The Iran situation may push up the ethanol-to-sugar price, and the sugar mill may adjust the sugar production ratio. The short-term raw sugar price is expected to be volatile. The Brazilian production may decrease, which may offset part of the supply surplus. The domestic sugar price is boosted by the overseas market, and attention should be paid to the macro impact [30]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton price fluctuated at night. The adjustment of the market due to the Middle East situation may be basically over, and the回调 amplitude is expected to be limited. In the long term, the cotton price may rise due to the tight supply and demand situation. The domestic consumption has increased, and the inventory is low, which provides support for the cotton price [31]. 3.3.6. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fell by 7.08% on Friday. The SCFI European line price increased, reflecting the price increase of shipping companies in the second half of March. The traditional off-season makes it difficult to maintain the price increase. The European line is expected to return to its seasonal pricing after the short-term geopolitical impact eases. Attention should be paid to the price increase letters of shipping companies in April and the actual implementation of prices [3][32][33].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that both supply and demand are expected to increase, leading to a complex price dynamic in the cobalt and lithium metal sectors. In the short term, lithium prices are expected to remain high due to upstream withholding and cautious downstream purchasing, influenced by export restrictions from Zimbabwe. The cobalt sector is supported by structural tightness in raw materials, providing price resilience. In the medium term, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concentrated raw material arrivals may pressure lithium prices, there is still upward momentum expected in the second quarter for both lithium and cobalt products [4][9][13] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The lithium and cobalt sectors are identified as having clear investment value, with recommendations for active positioning. Lithium prices are fluctuating within a high range, with recent data showing a weekly decrease in futures contracts. The lithium concentrate price has increased by 55 USD per ton week-on-week, while lithium salt prices are experiencing a downward trend due to market dynamics [9][13][14] 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent announcements include adjustments to trading fees for lithium carbonate futures by the Guangxi Futures Exchange. Additionally, CATL is accelerating the resumption and mining progress of lithium mines, which is expected to enhance supply chain resource security [16][17] 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials - In February, domestic production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide decreased by 15% month-on-month, while cobalt sulfate production fell by 10%. However, year-on-year comparisons show increases of 30% and 14% respectively for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide [19][20][23] 4. Lithium Salt Import and Export - In December, lithium carbonate imports rose by 9% month-on-month, while lithium hydroxide exports surged by 88%. This indicates a robust demand for lithium salts in the market [38][44] 5. Weekly Data on Lithium Salts - Weekly data shows a 3.70% increase in lithium carbonate production and a 0.42% decrease in inventory levels, reflecting a tightening supply situation [51][52] 6. Downstream Material Inventory - Weekly inventory levels for lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased by 5.22% and 1.17% respectively, indicating a buildup in stock [59][60] 7. Cobalt Segment Inventory - In February, inventory levels for key cobalt products generally decreased, with cobalt intermediate inventory down by 18.57% and electrolytic cobalt inventory down by 16.17% [61][64] 8. Price Trends for New Energy Metal Materials - The report notes mixed price movements, with lithium prices showing weakness while cobalt and nickel prices exhibit varied trends. The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.19% week-on-week [66][71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle - East conflict has an impact on the prices of various non - ferrous metals. Although the short - term conflict has uncertainties, the probability of further escalation is low. Different metals have different price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [2][3]. - For copper, short - term prices are expected to be volatile due to concerns about inflation and economic slowdown caused by the Middle - East conflict, and the tight supply of copper ore [3]. - For aluminum, supply is expected to remain tight, and domestic downstream resumption of work and production will reduce the pressure of ingot inventory accumulation, so the price is expected to remain strong [6]. - For lead, although there is significant inventory accumulation at home and abroad, the current price is at the lower edge of the shock range, and the price is expected to stop falling and gradually recover [9]. - For zinc, the domestic zinc industry remains weak, and the price may break through downward and show wide - range fluctuations during the conflict [11]. - For tin, the market has a strong sentiment of going long on tin prices, but considering the marginal relaxation of supply - demand and the increase in inventory, it is not advisable to blindly chase the high, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [13]. - For nickel, in the medium - term, the reduction of the RKAB quota policy in Indonesia will support the increase of the price center, and in the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate [16]. - For lithium carbonate, the price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and potential green - power transformation expectations may be beneficial to its pricing [19]. - For alumina, the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to potential driving factors such as mine production reduction and smelting - end supply contraction policies [22]. - For stainless steel, the market is expected to maintain an upward - fluctuating pattern [26]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the price is expected to remain strong in the short - term due to the strong cost, the improvement of demand after the resumption of work, and the seasonal tightness of raw material supply [29]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Information - The price of copper fluctuated and declined. The LME 3M copper contract closed down 0.36% to $13,049/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101,310 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 10,125 tons to 312,075 tons, and the domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 to 320,000 tons. The spot premium in East China and Guangdong increased, and the domestic copper spot import loss narrowed to less than 100 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 1,230 yuan/ton, remaining at a low level [2]. Strategy Viewpoint - Due to concerns about inflation and economic slowdown caused by the Middle - East conflict, and the tight supply of copper ore, the short - term copper price is expected to be volatile. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 100,000 - 102,200 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M copper is $12,900 - 13,200/ton [3]. Aluminum Market Information - The price of aluminum was strong. The LME 3M aluminum contract closed up 1.68% to $3,457/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 25,315 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased by 2.7 to 688,000 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.9 to 351,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum ingots in three places increased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased slightly. The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased, and the trading was weak. The spot discount of aluminum ingots in East China increased slightly to 130 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased by 0.2 to 450,000 tons [5]. Strategy Viewpoint - The supply risk in the Middle - East has not been eliminated, and the supply is expected to remain tight. The domestic downstream is resuming work and production, and the proportion of molten aluminum is expected to increase, which will reduce the pressure of ingot inventory accumulation. The price of aluminum is expected to remain strong. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,800 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M aluminum is $3,380 - 3,520/ton [6]. Lead Market Information - The Shanghai lead index closed up 0.16% to 16,692 yuan/ton, and the LME 3S lead increased by 8.5 to $1,945.5/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,475 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 56,900 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 284,900 tons [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - The lead ore inventory increased slightly, the lead concentrate TC increased slightly, and the raw material inventory of secondary lead decreased marginally. The smelting plant's operating rate decreased, and the downstream battery enterprise's operating rate has not fully recovered. Although there is significant inventory accumulation at home and abroad, the current price is at the lower edge of the shock range, and the price is expected to stop falling and gradually recover [9]. Zinc Market Information - The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.11% to 24,413 yuan/ton, and the LME 3S zinc decreased by 8 to $3,335/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,290 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 81,100 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 99,000 tons [10]. Strategy Viewpoint - The domestic TC of zinc concentrate increased slightly, and the smelting profit improved slightly. The finished product inventory of smelting enterprises and the social inventory of zinc ingots increased significantly. The actual impact of the Iran conflict on zinc ore supply is small. The long - term probability of the Iran conflict increases, and the zinc price may break through downward and show wide - range fluctuations [11]. Tin Market Information - On March 11, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 392,740 yuan/ton, down 0.01% from the previous day. The supply of crude tin is tight, and the production of refined tin remains at a low level. The downstream demand has not been effectively reflected, and the enterprises mainly consume their own inventory [12]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the context of macro - easing and the general price increase in the semiconductor industry, the market has a strong sentiment of going long on tin prices, but considering the marginal relaxation of supply - demand and the increase in inventory, it is not advisable to blindly chase the high. The price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 370,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the overseas LME tin is $47,000 - 54,000/ton [13]. Nickel Market Information - On March 11, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 137,160 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous day. The spot premium of each brand remained stable. The price of nickel ore remained unchanged, and the price of nickel iron continued to rise [15]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the medium - term, the reduction of the RKAB quota policy in Indonesia will support the increase of the price center. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate. The reference range for the short - term Shanghai nickel price is 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M nickel contract is $16,000 - 20,000/ton. It is recommended to sell high and buy low [16]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 158,287 yuan, down 0.44% from the previous day. The LC2605 contract closed at 155,040 yuan, down 4.88% from the previous day [18]. Strategy Viewpoint - Recently, the industrial - side driving force is limited, and the futures position is at a relatively low level, so the price increase is under pressure. The lithium price may fluctuate in the short - term. The potential green - power transformation expectation may be beneficial to its pricing. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 146,000 - 167,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina Market Information - On March 11, the alumina index rose 1.07% to 2,882 yuan/ton. The position of unilateral trading decreased by 0.09 to 451,400 hands. The Shandong spot price was 2,625 yuan/ton, with a discount of 244 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was 18 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.84 to 345,600 tons [21]. Strategy Viewpoint - The increase in maintenance and the delay in production start drive the reduction of the inventory accumulation amplitude. The supply of the ore end is in surplus, and the high registration volume of warehouse receipts due to the premium on the disk suppresses the upward movement of the disk price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and the futures price may fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to potential driving factors such as mine production reduction in Guinea and smelting - end supply contraction policies. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,700 - 3,000 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel Market Information - On Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,215 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The position increased by 2,521 to 163,000 hands. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets remained unchanged. The raw material prices remained stable. The futures inventory decreased by 102 to 52,013 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 1,094,800 tons, a decrease of 2.19% [24][25]. Strategy Viewpoint - The market procurement atmosphere has improved, but the actual purchase volume of downstream users is still small. The stainless - steel price is expected to maintain an upward - fluctuating pattern. The reference range for the main contract is 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The price of cast aluminum alloy rose. The AD2604 main contract closed up 0.87% to 23,885 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract increased to 21,400 hands, and the trading volume was 12,600 hands. The warehouse receipts decreased by 0.11 to 55,900 tons. The price of domestic mainstream ADC12 increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the import price also increased. The inventory of three - place aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.01 to 36,200 tons [28]. Strategy Viewpoint - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strong, the demand is expected to continue to improve after the resumption of work, and the supply - side disturbance and the seasonal tightness of raw material supply will make the short - term price remain strong [29].