有色金属行业

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锡业股份:8月21日召开董事会会议
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-24 08:45
每经AI快讯,锡业股份(SZ 000960,收盘价:19.49元)8月24日晚间发布公告称,公司第九届第九次 董事会会议于2025年8月21日在云南省昆明市官渡区民航路471号云锡办公楼五楼会议室以现场和线上会 议相结合方式召开。会议审议了《云南锡业股份有限公司2025年半年度报告》等文件。 2024年1至12月份,锡业股份的营业收入构成为:有色金属行业占比99.58%,其他业务占比0.42%。 截至发稿,锡业股份市值为321亿元。 每经头条(nbdtoutiao)——鲍威尔"认错",释放最强降息信号,美股狂欢!37万亿美元压顶,美国"债 务死亡螺旋"如何破解? (记者 张喜威) ...
预计下周有色金属震荡运行
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 06:20
来源:市场资讯 【铅】本周期铅震荡偏弱,现货铅价重心小降。8月消费旺季不旺,国内需求不佳,下游刚需低价采购 为主,铅价缺乏上涨动能,叠加海外铅锭库存增加,伦铅承压回落,国内铅价也共振下跌。下周来看, 基本面变动不大,短期铅价难以摆脱震荡格局,现货1#铅价暂时关注16600-16800元/吨。 【锌】短期来看,国内外宏观面消息偏少,叠加需求长期疲软,市场避险情绪升温,供应方面,国内社 库持续累库,供应端对价格有所拖累,且终端订单复苏暂不明显,随着旺季临近,市场情绪稍有回暖, 但仍偏谨慎,预计下周或延续震荡为主,现货锌价继续关注2.2-2.28万 【锡】周内电解锡价格震荡下跌。宏观上,关税不确定性仍存,叠加美联储降息预期反复,金融市场风 险偏好降温,金属板块承压运行。基本面上,国内7月锡精矿进口量环比减少,其中缅甸佤邦锡矿虽已 复产,但复产进度缓慢,7月自缅甸进口锡矿量不增反降,供应偏紧对锡价仍有支撑,但当前消费端表 现平淡,下游企业开工率下降,补库活跃度不高,整体现货交投偏淡。综合来看,预计下周锡价或维持 震荡走势,运行区间关注26-27.5万。 【镍】本周现货镍均价为121635元/吨,较上期下跌1815元/ ...
NIFD季报:国内宏观经济
Guo Jia Jin Rong Yu Fa Zhan Shi Yan Shi· 2025-08-22 08:22
Global Economic Trends - Global economic growth is expected to be 2.8% in 2025, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than the average growth rate from 2010 to 2019[14] - The World Bank predicts a global economic growth of only 2.3% in 2025, down from earlier forecasts[15] - International trade growth is anticipated to decline, with a projected decrease of 0.2% in global merchandise trade volume in 2025[16] China's Economic Outlook - China's GDP is projected to grow by approximately 4.7% in the second half of 2025, with a nominal GDP growth of 4.3% in the first half[27][28] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) may turn negative in the second half of 2025, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to decline by around 3.0% for the year[30] - The unemployment rate for urban areas averaged 5.2% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year[27] A-Share Market Performance - A-share companies' overall market value creation ability decreased by nearly 40 basis points in 2024 compared to 2023[40] - The performance of A-share companies is increasingly diverging from nominal GDP growth, particularly in the manufacturing sector[40] - The return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) for A-share companies continued to decline in 2024[40] Sector-Specific Insights - The first industry saw a significant recovery in asset returns due to rising pork prices, while the second and third industries experienced declines[10] - R&D investment in some sectors continued to rise in 2024, although some industries began to see a decrease[10] - The manufacturing sector is facing severe "involution" competition, impacting profitability and pricing power[30]
华峰铝业股价小幅回落 社保基金二季度加仓960万股
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-08-21 17:20
资金流向方面,华峰铝业当日主力资金净流出1472.07万元,近五个交易日累计净流出713.21万元。 风险提示:股市有风险,投资需谨慎。 公开信息显示,2025年二季度社保基金对华峰铝业进行了加仓操作,合计增持960.7万股。目前共有4只 社保基金产品持有该公司股票。 华峰铝业股价报17.73元,较前一交易日下跌1.39%。盘中波动区间为17.62元至18.09元,成交金额达 2.03亿元。 该公司主要从事铝板带箔的研发、生产和销售,产品广泛应用于汽车、家电、建筑等领域。华峰铝业属 于有色金属行业,是上海本地上市公司。 ...
有色套利早报-20250820
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 02:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data of various non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on August 20, 2025, including domestic prices, LME prices, price ratios, equilibrium price ratios, and profit margins [1][3][4][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 20, 2025, the domestic spot price was 79,100, the LME spot price was 9,653, the spot price ratio was 8.20, the equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.17, and the profit was 209.23; the domestic March price was 78,860, the LME March price was 9,750, and the price ratio was 8.09 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,190, the LME spot price was 2,767, the spot price ratio was 8.02, the equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.67, and the profit was - 1,787.67; the domestic March price was 22,205, the LME March price was 2,777, and the price ratio was 6.05 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,590, the LME spot price was 2,576, the spot price ratio was 7.99, the equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.47, and the profit was - 1,228.29; the domestic March price was 20,520, the LME March price was 2,580, and the price ratio was 7.98 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 119,450, the LME spot price was 14,890, the spot price ratio was 8.02, the equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.25, and the profit was - 2,120.30 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,650, the LME spot price was 1,943, the spot price ratio was 8.58, the equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.86, and the profit was - 543.18; the domestic March price was 16,850, the LME March price was 1,985, and the price ratio was 11.21 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the next - month, March, April, and May contracts relative to the spot - month contract were - 80, - 90, - 100, and - 100 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 497, 892, 1295, and 1699 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 135, - 135, - 140, and - 135 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 335, 456, and 577 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 55, - 80, - 105, and - 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 329, 444, and 559 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 60, 75, 105, and 140 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 314, 419, and 524 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were 110, 380, 660, and 940 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The spread of the 5 - 1 contract was 880, and the theoretical spread was 5556 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 125 and - 205 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 424 and 851 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 150 and 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 179 and 294 respectively [4][5]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 125 and 185 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 187 and 299 respectively [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On August 20, 2025, the cross - variety price ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in the Shanghai (three - continuous) market were 3.55, 3.84, 4.68, 0.92, 1.22, and 0.76 respectively, and in the London (three - continuous) market were 3.50, 3.78, 4.91, 0.93, 1.30, and 0.71 respectively [8].
有色金属日报-20250818
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 10:58
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading operability) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Lead: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The overall market for non - ferrous metals shows different trends and investment opportunities. Each metal has its own supply - demand fundamentals, inventory status, and price trends, which affect investment decisions [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - Shanghai copper fluctuates around the MA40 daily moving average, with high - level oscillations affecting downstream procurement. The current demand is mainly supported by power grid orders, and consumption is in the off - season. Domestic refined copper production increased in July and August. The supply - demand resilience is due to the low operating rate of recycled copper affected by policies. SMM social inventory increased by 8,100 tons to 133,700 tons. The upper trading resistance in the copper market is significant, and the expected trading range of Shanghai copper is 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined slightly, with a spot discount of 20 yuan in East China. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 19,000 tons, while aluminum rod inventory decreased by 6,000 tons. Downstream开工 is stable, and the peak of off - season inventory accumulation may be approaching. Inventory is likely to remain low this year. Shanghai aluminum will mainly oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot price is maintained at 19,900 yuan. Alumina has excess supply, with rising industry inventory and warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and it oscillates weakly [2] Zinc - The domestic zinc fundamentals show increasing supply and weak demand. SMM zinc social inventory continues to rise to 135,400 tons. Shanghai zinc has fallen for 4 consecutive trading days, and the 60 - day moving average is being tested. Due to repeated macro - sentiment, the direction of Shanghai zinc is unclear, and investors tend to take profits. The external inventory is at a low level, and a phased return of long positions needs to be vigilant. With the incremental supply from mines being realized as expected, the mid - term strategy is to short on rebounds, waiting for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Lead consumption shows a lackluster peak season, dragging down the price to oscillate weakly. The raw material supply is tightly constrained, and the cost strongly supports the price. Recycled lead is sold at a low price reluctantly, and in some areas, the refined - scrap price is inverted. SMM lead social inventory has slightly decreased. In late August, attention should be paid to traffic control in major lead - producing areas and routine maintenance of primary lead. After the Beginning of Autumn, the weather improves, and with the approaching of the school season, demand is expected to pick up. It is advisable to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan/ton, and also pay attention to the opportunities of end - of - term call options [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel slightly corrected on Monday, with average trading. Stainless steel social inventory has decreased for 6 consecutive weeks. However, downstream terminals are still reluctant to accept high - priced stainless steel. With the increase in stainless steel production in August, supply is expected to increase, and there is still some uncertainty in the market. In the spot market, Jinchuan nickel has a premium of 2,200 yuan, imported nickel has a premium of 350 yuan, and electrowon nickel has a premium of 125 yuan. High - nickel ferro - nickel is priced at 927 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price support has slightly rebounded. Nickel ferro - nickel inventory is basically stable at 33,000 tons. Pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 42,000 tons, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 934,000 tons, but the overall level is still high. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and it is advisable to actively short [6] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillates around the MA40 daily moving average. Attention should be paid to the impact of the production capacity of leading enterprises on the domestic supply side. It is expected that there is some room for inventory reduction in domestic tin social inventory. Overseas inventory is mainly at a low level. Attention should be paid to the changes in LME weak inventory and the 0 - 3 month spread after the third Wednesday. Although tin prices oscillate as a whole, there is a risk of an upward shift in the trading center. Middle and downstream enterprises should place orders at low prices. The overall oscillation range is expected to be between 263,000 - 280,000 yuan, with the high - level area above 275,000 yuan. Short - term long positions entered on corrections should be held based on the MA60 daily moving average [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price opened higher and oscillated, with active trading. The battery - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 84,600 yuan, with a price difference of 2,300 yuan between battery - grade and industrial - grade. The spot market has seen consecutive sharp increases, with a weekly increase of 10,000 yuan being rare in recent years. As the price increase trend is established, downstream material enterprises' inquiry enthusiasm has significantly increased due to rigid demand procurement and potential reduction in customer - supplied materials. The total market inventory is basically stable at 142,000 tons, with smelter inventory decreasing by 1,000 tons to 50,000 tons, downstream inventory remaining unchanged at 48,000 tons, and trader inventory increasing by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. The sharp price fluctuation has significantly impacted and deterred downstream purchasing. The latest Australian ore price is 995 US dollars, and the ore price is generally firm. The lithium carbonate futures price is strong, and the market focus is on the expectation after the shutdown of sub - standard plants for the 930 contract. In the short term, it is difficult to disprove this, and the fundamentals have limited guidance on the price. The short - term strategy is to go long with good risk control [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures slightly declined, giving back the intraday gains. The price was supported by the sentiment in the polysilicon market in the short term, and the supporting effect of policy expectations continued to show. However, recent photovoltaic industry conferences have not released new detailed information, and the improvement in the industrial silicon fundamentals is limited under the pattern of both supply and demand increasing. Therefore, the upside space is expected to be limited, and the main contract is expected to oscillate between 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon recovered part of the intraday gains. At the policy level, although the news of photovoltaic - related conferences has been released, the policy details have not been substantially advanced, and the price increase driven by market sentiment is limited. At the spot level, terminal and downstream demand are stable, while polysilicon production has increased significantly. The high - inventory pattern will suppress the upside elasticity of the price. With the futures price at a premium, the increase in warehouse receipts is significant, and there is hedging pressure. The operation strategy is to go long around 50,000 yuan/ton, and there is still resistance above 53,000 yuan/ton [10]
鑫铂股份股价上涨2.57% 公司披露对外担保情况
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-08-15 17:54
Group 1 - The latest stock price of Xinbo Co., Ltd. is 19.16 yuan, an increase of 0.48 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume for the day was 57,194 hands, with a transaction amount of 1.09 billion yuan [1] - Xinbo Co., Ltd. operates in the non-ferrous metal industry, focusing on the research, production, and sales of aluminum profiles [1] Group 2 - The company's products are primarily used in construction, automotive, and electronic appliance sectors [1] - On the evening of August 15, Xinbo Co., Ltd. announced that neither the company nor its subsidiaries have overdue external guarantees or are involved in any litigation related to guarantees [1] - The company has not incurred any losses due to judgments against it related to guarantees [1]
盘面走弱,有色普跌
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 10:17
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - **沪铜**: Today, Shanghai copper fluctuated downward with a decline in open interest. On the macro - level, the domestic sentiment turned cold, and previously strong varieties generally fell, pressuring copper prices down. On the industrial level, Mysteel's inventory on Thursday was basically the same as on Monday. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 79,000 mark [5]. - **沪铝**: Today, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated with a continuous decline in open interest. On the macro - level, the domestic sentiment turned cold, and previously strong varieties generally fell, pressuring aluminum prices down. On the industrial level, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory on Thursday was 517,000 tons, a decrease of 54,000 tons from Monday. With macro - level negatives and industrial - level positives, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **沪镍**: Today, nickel prices decreased with a reduction in positions. On the macro - level, the domestic sentiment turned cold, and previously strong varieties generally fell, pressuring nickel prices down. On the industrial level, the nickel fundamentals remained weak. With the weakening of the market and weak industrial support, pay attention to the technical support at the 120,000 mark [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 14, Mysteel's domestic market electrolytic copper spot inventory was 132,400 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the 7th and an increase of 200 tons from the 11th [9]. - **Aluminum**: On August 14, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 517,000 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from the 7th and a decrease of 54,000 tons from the 11th [10]. - **Nickel**: On August 14, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2509 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,150 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,670 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,020 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +3,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,720 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was +2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,070 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and others [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and others [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and others [36][42][44].
有色金属日报-20250813
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 09:39
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading floor operability [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, similar to aluminum, a balanced short - term trend and low operability [1] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆, also a balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, slightly bearish bias with limited trading floor operability [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and low operability [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆, slightly bearish bias with limited trading floor operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] Report's Core View - Different metals in the non - ferrous metals market have various price trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper closed with a positive trend, with the spot copper price rising to 79,475 yuan. There was a premium in Shanghai and Guangdong. The refined - scrap price difference was restored to 1,100 yuan. Due to the lower - than - expected US CPI in July, the dollar weakened. It is difficult for copper prices to effectively break through 79,500 yuan, and short positions are recommended on rallies [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly, with the spot discount in East China narrowing to 20 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory continued to accumulate, and downstream开工 was in the off - season. The peak of aluminum ingot inventory may occur in August, and the inventory is likely to be low this year. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Casting aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price rising to 19,900 yuan. Alumina's operating capacity was at a historical high, the total industry inventory increased, and the market was in an oversupply state. There was adjustment pressure after yesterday's news hype [2] Zinc - The average price of SMM 0 zinc was 22,560 yuan/ton, with a discount to the near - month contract. Downstream demand was weak, and the term structure of Shanghai zinc was flattening. The domestic refined zinc inventory may continue to rise, and Shanghai zinc is expected to face pressure on rebounds. LME zinc inventory decreased, and the external market was relatively strong, making it difficult to open the import window. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - The refined and scrap lead prices were the same, and the cost support was strong. Consumption had no obvious improvement, and the upward momentum of lead prices was insufficient. Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate widely, and long positions are recommended to be held with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market was active. The domestic anti - dumping theme was coming to an end, and nickel with a relatively poor fundamental situation will return to its fundamentals. The inventory of nickel iron was basically stable, and the inventory of pure nickel and stainless steel decreased, but the overall inventory level was still high. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short positions are recommended [6] Tin - Shanghai tin closed slightly lower at around 270,000 yuan, with a premium to the delivery month. The short - term upward trend was relatively stable. The low inventory in the external market provided support, and the domestic high social inventory had the motivation to reduce. Short - term long positions are recommended at low prices [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuated, and the market was active. The trading lacked a clear direction, and the long - liquidation was obvious. The spot price was 81,000 yuan. The downstream inquiry was active, and the spot market transaction improved. The total market inventory decreased slightly, and there was obvious transfer of goods ownership. Risk management should be noted due to abnormal price fluctuations [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon decreased with increasing positions, closing at 8,600 yuan/ton. The self - discipline of production capacity was difficult, and the sentiment was affected by related varieties. The inventory in the delivery warehouse increased significantly, and there was still hedging pressure at high levels. However, the expected increase in polysilicon production provided some demand support. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,300 - 9,000 yuan/ton in the short term [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon decreased with decreasing positions, closing at 51,290 yuan/ton. The N - type re - feed price was stable. The production in August was significantly increased, and the inventory increase restricted the spot price increase. The PS2511 contract is expected to operate between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and short - selling at the lower end of the range is recommended with caution [10]
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250813
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:00
有色金属日报 2025-8-13 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号:F3036210 交易咨询号:Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号:F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号:F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号:F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号:F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 铅 周二沪铅指数收涨 0.21%至 16920 元/吨,单边交易总持仓 9.62 万手。截至周二下午 15:00,伦铅 3S 较前日同期跌 5.5 至 2004.5 美元/吨,总持仓 15.16 万手。SMM1#铅锭均价 16775 元/吨,再生精 铅均价 16775 元/吨,精废价差平水,废电动车电池均价 10200 元/吨。上期所铅锭期货库存录得 5.98 万吨,内盘原生基差-110 元/吨,连续合约- ...