Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the lithium and cobalt sectors, indicating clear investment value and suggesting active positioning in these areas [8][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that supply disruptions, particularly from Zimbabwe, have intensified expectations for supply contraction, leading to a significant rebound in lithium prices post-holiday. The lithium price is expected to continue rising in the second quarter due to ongoing demand in the energy storage sector and supply-side disturbances [4][12][13]. - Cobalt prices are supported by raw material costs, with insufficient arrival volumes at ports, indicating limited downward space in the short term [4][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Supply Disruptions Trigger Lithium Price Rebound - The lithium sector is experiencing price acceleration due to supply disturbances and post-holiday replenishment. Futures contracts have seen significant weekly increases, with the Wuxi contract rising 16.95% to 174,600 CNY/ton and the Guangzhou contract increasing 15.33% to 176,000 CNY/ton. Lithium concentrate prices have also surged, with a reported increase of 372 USD/ton to 2,372 USD/ton [8][12][13]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - Zimbabwe has announced an immediate suspension of all raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports, aiming to strengthen mineral regulation and accountability. This move is expected to compress the available supply from Africa, increasing uncertainty and risk premiums in the raw material sector [16]. - Core Lithium has agreed to sell its lithium spodumene inventory to Glencore, which is expected to provide significant momentum for potential resumption of production [16]. 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials: Mixed Production Changes and Price Increases - In January, domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 5% month-on-month, while hydroxide production decreased by 4%. The report indicates a structural adjustment in inventory levels [17][18]. - The report notes that cobalt production in January saw a month-on-month decline of 5% for sulfate and 8% for chloride, while year-on-year increases were recorded at 13% and 32%, respectively [20][29]. 4. Lithium Salt Import and Export Data - In December, lithium carbonate imports rose by 9% month-on-month, while hydroxide exports surged by 88%. This reflects a strong demand and supply dynamic in the lithium market [34][40]. 5. Price Trends in New Energy Metals - The average weekly price for battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 18.35%, while industrial-grade prices rose by 18.83%. The average price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide also saw a significant increase of 15.35% [63][64].

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a weak adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.17% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.68% as of the midday close. The ChiNext Index fell by 1.46% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.59 trillion yuan, a decrease of 53 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Key Sectors Power and Electric Equipment - The power and electric equipment sector is showing renewed activity, with stocks like Ganneng Co., Huayin Electric, and Beijing Keri hitting their daily limit. The sector is buoyed by the recent announcement from the National Energy Administration regarding the first batch of pilot projects for new power system construction [3] - A significant factor is the news that China's AI call volume has surpassed that of the U.S., with four major models ranking in the global top five. This increase in AI activity is linked to power and computing needs, leveraging China's lower electricity prices for international expansion [3] Rare Metals - The rare metals sector is also active, with stocks like Zhangyuan Tungsten and Xianglu Tungsten hitting their daily limit. The U.S. is planning to set reference prices for critical minerals, which is expected to drive demand and prices in this sector [4] Photovoltaic Sector - The photovoltaic sector is gaining momentum, with stocks such as Junda Co. and Shuangliang Energy reaching their daily limit. Analysts attribute this growth to the dual catalysts of Elon Musk's "space photovoltaic" strategy and the accelerated development of domestic satellite internet [5] Computing Hardware - The computing hardware sector is experiencing a pullback, with stocks in areas like optical modules and PCB showing weakness. Notably, stocks like Honghe Technology have hit their daily limit down [6] Institutional Insights - Dongfang Securities notes that the market's risk appetite is decreasing, although there is still potential for stock indices to rise. The firm suggests that investors should reduce positions in stocks that have performed too aggressively in the short term [7] - Yang Delong from Qianhai Kaiyuan believes that the current market is in the mid-stage of a slow bull market, emphasizing the importance of focusing on technology and resource sectors that are less likely to be replaced by AI [8] - CITIC Construction expresses optimism about the recovery of heavy asset industries, citing factors such as rising inflation expectations and improved profitability in sectors like chemicals and construction materials [9] - Everbright Securities highlights the transition from energy consumption control to carbon emission control in China, suggesting that assets with low or negative carbon attributes will gain a green premium [10]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：伍戈经济笔记 核心观点： 1．非常道也。年初以来，以全球制造业为表征的景气指标明显上行，已连续6个月维持在扩张区间，增 添了市场对于新一轮资本开支周期的憧憬。地缘风险加剧的背景下，全球经济景气程度为何抬升？这是 否终将有助于我国经济巩固和物价回升？ 2．近年地缘风险指标显著抬升，目前仅次于两次世界大战时期。历史可见，其亦能领先带动全球资本 开支及经济周期。与此同时，尽管市场对于AI科技定价是否存在泡沫有争议，但仍难以证伪其投资进 程正在上下游深化，及长期扩张的基本趋势。 3．上述国防、科技等共振下的资本开支扩张，叠加近期美国最高法院的关税判决，将有利于世界贸易 维持高位。以有色金属为代表的商品价格虽有波动，但其需求的绝对规模似仍有提升空间，供需平衡趋 紧的边际定价逻辑仍将支撑其未来价格走势。 4．展望未来，鉴于经济预期增速目标适度下调的可能性，外需偏强或将明显支撑我国工业生产及实际 GDP，国际定价品类对PPI降幅收窄的作用加大。不过，本轮全球科技、国防等支出扩张异于传统消费 需求，宏观读数和微观体感之间或存差异。 正文： 年初以 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★ [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★ [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and market analysis for various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, inventory changes, supply and demand situations, and influencing factors [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - After the holiday, the weighted Shanghai copper futures increased positions and closed positive, with prices hovering in the area of short - and medium - term moving averages [2] - The domestic spot copper price was 101,455 yuan, with a premium in Shanghai and an expanding discount in Guangdong [2] - The inventory increased by 154,900 tons, and it is advisable to continue the inter - period reverse arbitrage. The unilateral copper price may adjust to the 60 - day moving average to attract buyers [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum opened higher and fluctuated narrowly. The spot premiums and discounts in different regions varied. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 211,000 tons to 1.125 million tons, and that of aluminum rods increased by 74,000 tons to 383,000 tons [3] - In the short term, Shanghai aluminum will oscillate between 23,000 - 24,000 yuan, waiting for a driving force. Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum but is weak in rising [3] - The domestic alumina operating capacity dropped to around 93 million tons. The spot price temporarily stopped falling and stabilized, but the upward driving force for the futures is limited, and it should be treated as range - bound [3] Zinc - After the holiday, the SMM zinc social inventory increased to 209,700 tons, with a smaller increase than in 2025. The long - position in Shanghai zinc entered the market on dips, driving the price to rebound [4] - The cost support is strong, and there is still rebound momentum in the first quarter. However, the expectation of oversupply remains unchanged, so it should be regarded as oscillating to build a top. Short - position is signaled by the rise of TC from a low level, and short - term waiting is recommended [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - On the first trading day after the holiday, Shanghai nickel strengthened. The external market was strong during the holiday. Trump's tariffs were rejected by the Supreme Court, and the weak US economic data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts. The short - term trend is unclear, slightly bullish [7] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated and closed positive, with the spot price at 387,350 yuan. The tin price is expected to oscillate in a wide range. For short - term London tin, pay attention to the resistance above $50,000. Wait and see, focusing on the resumption of supply in the main production areas and post - holiday consumption [8] Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, there is still optimistic sentiment, and it should be regarded as strongly oscillating. Market rumors of a mining legal person being investigated have raised supply concerns. The external market is mostly bullish. Technically, it oscillates strongly, and risk management should be noted [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher. The large - scale factories in Xinjiang have a phased production cut and are expected to resume production after the holiday. The organic silicon industry's operating rate is about 60%, slightly lower than before the holiday [10] - The industry's emission - reduction policy drags down the demand. The downstream polysilicon demand is still weak. The market is expected to continue to oscillate after the holiday, and focus on the resumption and operation rhythm of large factories [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures decreased with increasing positions, closing at 47,000 yuan/ton. Policy support is weakening. Although there is a slight de - stocking expectation, the spot trading is stagnant, and the factory inventory reached a high of 349,000 tons before the holiday [11] - The price is expected to run weakly, with the low point around 45,500 yuan/ton [11]

CPI Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, down from 0.8% in December 2025, with a cumulative year-on-year CPI of 0.0% for 2025[1] - The significant drop in CPI growth is primarily due to the high base effect from the 2025 Spring Festival, which fell in January[2] - Increased vegetable supply led to a decline in food prices, contributing to the overall CPI trend[3] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, was 0.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[4] PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in January 2026, an improvement from a 1.9% decline in December 2025, marking the smallest year-on-year decline since August 2024[5] - The PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase[6] - Key drivers for the PPI increase include improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries and rising international prices for non-ferrous metals[7] - The PPI for production materials rose by 0.5% month-on-month, while the PPI for living materials increased by 0.1%[8] Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to rise significantly in February 2026, potentially reaching around 1.0% due to the reversal of the Spring Festival base effect[9] - The overall CPI for January and February combined is projected to be around 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a continuation of the price recovery trend from the second half of 2025[10]

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国有色金属行业市场发展现状及竞争格局预测报告》 数据来源：国家统计局 2020-2026年1月下旬铅锭（1#）市场价格变动统计图 根据国家统计局公布的数据，有色金属类别下的铅锭（1#）2026年1月下旬市场价格为16864.3元/吨， 同比上涨1.29%，环比下滑1.91%，纵观近5年同时期其价格，2026年1月下旬达到最大值，有16864.3元/ 吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Trump's large-scale tariff measures implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) lack clear legal authorization, effectively overturning many of his tariff policies from his second term [2][3][5]. Group 1: Supreme Court Ruling - The Supreme Court's decision, with a 6-3 vote, stated that the IEEPA does not grant the president the authority to impose tariffs without Congressional approval [3][6]. - The ruling specifically limits the president's ability to impose tariffs through the IEEPA but does not entirely strip the president of the power to levy tariffs under other trade laws [6][12]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The ruling raises significant concerns regarding tax refunds, with estimates suggesting that over $175 billion in tariff revenue may be at risk of refund [7][11]. - If the full $175 billion is refunded, it would account for more than half of the total tariff revenue projected over the next decade, which is estimated to generate about $300 billion annually [7][11]. Group 3: International Trade Relations - The ruling has prompted reactions from international trade partners, with the EU and UK expressing a desire to understand the implications for their trade relations with the U.S. [9]. - The decision may impact ongoing trade agreements, as countries like Indonesia have recently negotiated trade deals to mitigate the effects of U.S. tariffs [6][9]. Group 4: Future Tariff Actions - In response to the ruling, Trump announced plans to impose an additional 10% tariff on global goods based on the Trade Act of 1974, which is expected to take effect shortly [5][6]. - The ruling does not affect tariffs imposed under other legal frameworks, such as those on steel, aluminum, and specific national security tariffs [12].

| 品名 | 价格区间 均价 | | 涨跌 日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A00铝 | 23180-23140 | 23160 | -190 02-13 | | 1#铜 | 100410-100390 | 100400 | -1800 02-13 | | 铝 | 16550-16450 | 16500 | -75 ↓ 02-13 | | 0#锌 | 24850-23850 | 24350 | -120 02-13 | | 1#f字 | 24300-24200 | 24250 | -120 02-13 | | 锡 | 379650-377650 | | 378650 - - 12900 + 02-13 | | 美 | 141700-138700 140200 | | -5250 02-13 | 2月13日有色宝长江A00铝23140～23180均价23160跌190,前三日均价23297,前五日均价23284 2月13日有色宝长江A00铝23140～23180均价23160跌190,前三日均价23297,前五日均价23284 | 品名 | 价格区间 > | 均价 | 日期 涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent share pledge and release activities by WanFang Group, a major shareholder of Jiaozuo Wanfang (000612), indicate potential changes in shareholder funding status without affecting company control [1] Stock Performance - The stock price has shown a volatile upward trend in the past week, with a significant increase of 6.30% on February 11, closing at 14.00 yuan and a trading volume of 1.189 billion yuan, resulting in a turnover rate of 7.21% [2] - As of February 13, the stock price reached 14.10 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 8.21% over five days and a year-to-date rise of 27.95% [2] - On February 11, there was a net outflow of 17.79 million yuan from main funds, while retail and speculative funds saw net inflows; major funds like Southern Fund and Tianhong Fund reported significant floating profits [2] - The non-ferrous metal sector has been positively impacted by a 9.9% week-on-week increase in light rare earth prices, creating a favorable environment for the company [2] Financial Report Analysis - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported impressive financial performance with revenue of 4.982 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 906 million yuan, a substantial growth of 71.58% [3] - The net profit for the third quarter alone surged by 119.64%, primarily due to the rebound in electrolytic aluminum prices and cost optimization [3] - By the end of the third quarter, the asset-liability ratio decreased to 14.03%, and the gross profit margin improved to 20.90%, indicating enhanced financial health [3] - Institutions predict that the company's full-year performance for 2025 will continue to show high growth, with net profit expected to increase by over 120% year-on-year [3] Institutional Perspectives - Institutional attention has been moderate recently, but profit expectations remain positive, with one institution issuing a buy or hold rating as of September 2025 [4] - The forecast for earnings per share in 2025 is 1.10 yuan, with a projected net profit growth of 122.19% [4] - According to Securities Star analysis, the company's relative valuation range is between 13.2 and 14.59 yuan, with the current stock price considered reasonable, and the company rated positively for its competitive advantages and profitability [4]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】1 月通胀数据点评 PPI 同比转正时点或提前 主要观点 ❖ 1 月份通胀数据述评：整体趋势继续改善 PPI 环比上涨 0.4%，连续四个月上涨。环比来看，全国统一大市场建设带动 部分行业价格上涨（水泥、锂电池、光伏设备和元器件、基础化学原料、黑色 冶炼加工），AI 和节前备货需求增长带动相关行业价格上涨（计算机电子、工 业美术用品、农副食品加工），输入性因素影响国内石油相关行业价格下降、 有色相关行业价格上涨。 本月是基期轮换后的首次数据发布。基期轮换后，调查分类目录、调查网点和 代表规格品、权数等均有小幅变动。但根据统计局的测算，本次基期轮换对 CPI 和 PPI 各月同比指数的影响平均约为 0.06 和 0.08 个百分点，总体较小。 ❖ PPI 同比转正时点或提前 PPI 同比在今年三季度转正的概率较大，主要考虑以下三个因素： 第一，中游供需持续改善带来的价格止跌企稳的时点或已提前。在前期报告 中，我们基于 2015-2016 年、2019-2020 年的经验，即从中游装备制造业的供 给增速首次低于需求增速到价格环比止跌回升，大约历时 6-7 个季度。据此 ...