市场氛围降温
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市场氛围降温,煤焦高位回落
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 10:24
Report Overview - Report Title: Coal and Coke Daily Report on November 5, 2025 [5] - Report Type: Black Metal Daily Report - Author: Tu Weihua from Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: On November 5, the coke main contract closed at 1,753 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.03%. The position of the main contract was 38,448 lots, a decrease of 391 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quotation of the FOB price index of quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,570 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port was 1,570 yuan/ton, up 0.64% week - on - week. Overall, coke supply stabilized while demand declined, the fundamentals weakened marginally. After the previous macro - level positive factors were realized, the market sentiment cooled down, and the coke futures pulled back from high levels, remaining within the trading range since the end of July [6][34]. - **Coking Coal**: On November 5, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,268.5 points, down 0.47% intraday. The position of the main contract was 644,473 lots, a decrease of 737 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimao Port was 1,415 yuan/ton, up 1.80% week - on - week. Recently, there was no significant change in the supply - demand pattern of coking coal. The upward driving force mainly came from the emotional support brought by anti - involution and the easing of Sino - US trade relations. As the macro - level positive factors were realized, the market sentiment cooled down, and the coking coal futures pulled back again at the upper edge of the trading range. In the future, attention should be paid to the actual impact of safety inspections and anti - involution on coking coal supply [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - In late October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 19.99 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.817 million tons, a 9.8% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period; 19.18 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.744 million tons, a 5.8% decrease in daily output; and 21.94 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.995 million tons, a 0.9% increase in daily output [8]. - On November 5, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market increased by 60 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of low - sulfur primary coking coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) was 1,660 yuan/ton including tax in cash [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - first - class FOB) | 1,570 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 7.10% | - 16.93% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - first - class Ex - warehouse) | 1,570 yuan/ton | 0.64% | 1.29% | - 3.09% | - 13.26% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimao Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,415 yuan/ton | 1.80% | 1.80% | 19.92% | - 2.41% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1,670 yuan/ton | 0.60% | 0.60% | 12.08% | - 4.02% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1,740 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | 13.73% | - 1.14% | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,753.0 yuan/ton | - 0.03 | 1,764.0 yuan/ton | 1,719.5 yuan/ton | 19,107 lots | - 2,542 lots | 38,448 lots | - 391 lots | | Coking Coal | | 1,268.5 points | - 0.47 | 1,276.5 points | 1,244.0 points | 807,948 lots | - 52,874 lots | 644,473 lots | - 737 lots | [13] 3.4 Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory from 2019 - 2025 [14][15][16][17][18][19]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal from 2019 - 2025 [20][21][22][23][24][25][31]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel mill production (blast furnace开工率 and steel mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal washing plant production (coal washing plant clean coal inventory and coal washing plant开工率), and coking plant开工率 and ton - coke profit [27][29][32][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Coke**: The market supply stabilizes, demand declines, the fundamentals weaken marginally, and the futures price pulls back from high levels, remaining within the trading range since the end of July [6][34]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply - demand pattern has no significant change, the upward driving force comes from emotional support, and the futures price pulls back at the upper edge of the trading range. Attention should be paid to the impact of safety inspections and anti - involution on supply [6][34].