Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clear long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot Roll: ★★★, indicating a clear long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★, indicating a clear long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The overall demand for steel is still weak, with the expected demand remaining weak. The market sentiment has improved slightly, and the futures prices may fluctuate in the short - term. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Coke has a third - round price increase expectation, and coking coal prices are not expected to fall continuously. Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices are likely to rise in a fluctuating manner [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Steel - Today's futures prices rebounded slightly. Thread demand and production both declined, and the inventory reduction slowed. Hot - roll demand dropped significantly, production decreased, and inventory rose slightly. Iron - water production declined from a high level, and the downstream's ability to absorb was insufficient. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain remains to be alleviated. The overall domestic demand is weak, while steel exports remain high. The demand expectation is weak, but the market sentiment has improved. The futures prices may still fluctuate in the short - term [2] Iron Ore - Today's futures prices showed a strong - side oscillation. The global shipment is at a high level for the same period, and there is room for seasonal improvement. The domestic arrival volume has increased significantly, and port inventories are accumulating. Terminal demand has entered the off - season, steel demand has dropped, and steel mills' profitability has shrunk. There is further pressure on iron - water production cuts. After the macro - level positive news was implemented, the market tends to cash in on the benefits and start to trade the fact of a marginally looser iron ore market. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] Coke - The price oscillated upwards during the day. There is an expectation of a third - round price increase in the coking industry. Coking profits are average, and daily production has decreased slightly. Coke inventories have hardly changed. Downstream enterprises are making small - scale on - demand purchases, and traders' purchasing intentions are average. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and high - level iron - water production provides support, but steel mills' profit levels are average, and they have a strong intention to suppress raw material prices. The futures prices are at a premium [4] Coking Coal - The price oscillated upwards during the day. The market sentiment was affected by the resumption of production of a small number of coal mines in the Wuhai production area, but many coal mines facing resource integration have not resumed production, so prices are not expected to fall continuously. The production of coking coal mines has increased slightly, spot auction transactions have improved, and terminal inventories have increased. The total inventory of coking coal has increased slightly compared to the previous period, and producer - side inventories have decreased slightly. High - level iron - water production provides support, but steel mills' profit levels are average, and they have a strong intention to suppress raw material prices. The futures prices are at a discount to Mongolian coal [6] Silicomanganese - Today's futures prices showed a strong - side oscillation. On the demand side, iron - water production remains at a high level above 236. Weekly production of silicomanganese has decreased slightly but remains at a high level, and inventories are slowly accumulating. The forward quotation of manganese ore is flat month - on - month. The price is likely to rise in a fluctuating manner [7] Ferrosilicon - Today's futures prices showed a strong - side oscillation. On the demand side, iron - water production remains at a high level above 236, and export demand has risen to about 40,000 tons. The secondary demand has increased marginally, and overall demand is acceptable. Supply remains at a high level, and on - balance - sheet inventories are continuously decreasing. The price is likely to rise in a fluctuating manner [8]

Report Overview - Report Title: Coal and Coke Daily Report on November 5, 2025 [5] - Report Type: Black Metal Daily Report - Author: Tu Weihua from Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: On November 5, the coke main contract closed at 1,753 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.03%. The position of the main contract was 38,448 lots, a decrease of 391 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quotation of the FOB price index of quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,570 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port was 1,570 yuan/ton, up 0.64% week - on - week. Overall, coke supply stabilized while demand declined, the fundamentals weakened marginally. After the previous macro - level positive factors were realized, the market sentiment cooled down, and the coke futures pulled back from high levels, remaining within the trading range since the end of July [6][34]. - **Coking Coal**: On November 5, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,268.5 points, down 0.47% intraday. The position of the main contract was 644,473 lots, a decrease of 737 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimao Port was 1,415 yuan/ton, up 1.80% week - on - week. Recently, there was no significant change in the supply - demand pattern of coking coal. The upward driving force mainly came from the emotional support brought by anti - involution and the easing of Sino - US trade relations. As the macro - level positive factors were realized, the market sentiment cooled down, and the coking coal futures pulled back again at the upper edge of the trading range. In the future, attention should be paid to the actual impact of safety inspections and anti - involution on coking coal supply [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - In late October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 19.99 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.817 million tons, a 9.8% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period; 19.18 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.744 million tons, a 5.8% decrease in daily output; and 21.94 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.995 million tons, a 0.9% increase in daily output [8]. - On November 5, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market increased by 60 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of low - sulfur primary coking coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) was 1,660 yuan/ton including tax in cash [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - first - class FOB) | 1,570 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 7.10% | - 16.93% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - first - class Ex - warehouse) | 1,570 yuan/ton | 0.64% | 1.29% | - 3.09% | - 13.26% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimao Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,415 yuan/ton | 1.80% | 1.80% | 19.92% | - 2.41% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1,670 yuan/ton | 0.60% | 0.60% | 12.08% | - 4.02% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1,740 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | 13.73% | - 1.14% | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,753.0 yuan/ton | - 0.03 | 1,764.0 yuan/ton | 1,719.5 yuan/ton | 19,107 lots | - 2,542 lots | 38,448 lots | - 391 lots | | Coking Coal | | 1,268.5 points | - 0.47 | 1,276.5 points | 1,244.0 points | 807,948 lots | - 52,874 lots | 644,473 lots | - 737 lots | [13] 3.4 Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory from 2019 - 2025 [14][15][16][17][18][19]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal from 2019 - 2025 [20][21][22][23][24][25][31]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel mill production (blast furnace开工率 and steel mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal washing plant production (coal washing plant clean coal inventory and coal washing plant开工率), and coking plant开工率 and ton - coke profit [27][29][32][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Coke**: The market supply stabilizes, demand declines, the fundamentals weaken marginally, and the futures price pulls back from high levels, remaining within the trading range since the end of July [6][34]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply - demand pattern has no significant change, the upward driving force comes from emotional support, and the futures price pulls back at the upper edge of the trading range. Attention should be paid to the impact of safety inspections and anti - involution on supply [6][34].

Group 1: Report's Core Views - Observe the inflection point of the weakening of the steel market sentiment and gradually reduce the spot or long positions [2] - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate, and future supply - demand changes should be monitored [2] - After the macro - positive factors are realized, the coal - coke market may see a supply - demand adjustment, and the 05 contract of coking coal tests the support at the previous high [4] - The short - term fundamentals of iron ore are marginally weakening, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [5] Group 2: Market Conditions and Analysis Steel - On Thursday, the inventory data of steel was acceptable, with no effective inventory accumulation in the steel segment. However, the futures market fluctuated greatly, and the sentiment of positions became chaotic. After recent important events, the market sentiment may cool down. The basis between futures and spot has been repaired from a high level, but the production profit has not been effectively repaired, and it is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of weakening sentiment [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Affected by external macro factors, market sentiment declined, and the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese followed the adjustment of the black sector. Their fundamentals have problems such as high supply, large inventory reduction pressure, and weak downstream demand, and prices are likely to fluctuate under pressure [2] Coking Coal and Coke - In the spot market, the trading atmosphere of coking coal and coke is average. Coking coal prices are rising, but there are more failed auctions. The price of port - traded quasi - first - grade coke is 1660 (+10), and the coking coal price index is 1343.6 (+7.0). After the macro - positive factors are realized, the black sector has declined, and coking coal and coke are relatively strong. But considering the approaching off - season of steel demand, the supply - demand tightness may ease [4] Iron Ore - After the short - term conclusion of the Sino - US negotiation, commodities have significantly corrected. The supply of iron ore is within a reasonable range. This period has seen a significant decline in hot metal, and if the decline continues, the supply - demand surplus pressure of iron ore in the fourth quarter will increase. The expected increase in supply still limits the price ceiling [5] Group 3: Price and Data Information Futures Closing Prices - On October 30, for far - month contracts, RB2605 was 3327.00 (-3.00, -0.09%), HC2605 was 3170.00 (12.00, 0.39%), JM2605 was 779.50 (-18.50, -0.36%), J2605 was 1359.00 (3.00, 1.38%); for near - month contracts, RB2601 was 3106.00 (20.50, -0.38%), HC2601 was 3318.00 (12.00, -0.33%), J2601 was 802.50 (3.00, 0.59%), JM2601 was 1288.00 (10.50, 0.38%) [1] Spot Prices - On October 30, the price of Tianjin rebar was 3000.00 (-40.00), Tangshan billet was 3210.00 (20.00), Shanghai rebar was 3210.00 (0.00), Guangzhou rebar was 3350.00, and the Platts Index was 107.70 (-0.70). The price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3310.00 (4.00), Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3360.00 (-50.00), Rizhao Port PB was 807.00 (-40.00), and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3360.00 [1] Spreads, Ratios and Profits - On October 30, the rebar disk profit was 212.00 (-0.02), the coil - rebar spread was 1.39 (0.00), the coal - coke ratio was -169.13 (-16.45), the coking disk profit was 73.46, the rebar - ore ratio was 3.87 [1]