Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck market in China experienced a significant year-on-year increase in sales in January 2026, with wholesale sales reaching approximately 100,000 units, marking a 39% increase compared to the same month last year [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In January 2026, the heavy truck market showed a strong wholesale performance while retail sales were weaker, indicating a potential market overextension and reduced demand ahead of the Spring Festival [3][5]. - The increase in wholesale sales was driven by manufacturers aiming for a strong start to the year, encouraging confidence among stakeholders and preparing for the upcoming sales peak after the Spring Festival [5][7]. - The heavy truck export market also saw robust growth, with exports increasing by over 20% year-on-year in January 2026 [8]. Group 2: Sales Dynamics - Domestic terminal sales for heavy trucks are expected to decline by 5% to 10% year-on-year in January 2026, with the electric heavy truck segment experiencing a significant drop of over 85% month-on-month [9][11]. - The decline in electric heavy truck sales is attributed to market overextension from December 2025, where a surge in sales occurred due to the expiration of the old vehicle replacement policy and changes in tax incentives for new energy vehicles [9][11]. - In contrast, the natural gas heavy truck segment is projected to grow by approximately 30% year-on-year in January 2026, with a penetration rate of 26% to 29% [11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The heavy truck industry is expected to maintain a slight year-on-year increase in wholesale sales in the first quarter of 2026, while terminal sales may see a decline of around 10% [11]. - The traditional sales peak is anticipated to be delayed due to the later timing of the Spring Festival in 2026, with significant policy incentives expected to be introduced in the second and third quarters [11].