2025年的最后一个月，重卡行业呈现出终端零售和批发销量双双收窄的态势。其销量，究 竟会定格在多少？2025年全年累计销量突破110万辆了吗？2026年的走势，到底会如何？ 请看第一商用车网带来的分析报道。 12月重卡销量同比上涨13%，全年累计超113万辆 2019-2025年我国重卡市场销量月度走势图（单位：辆） 2025年12月，重卡市场同比增速明显收窄。 根据第一商用车网初步掌握的数据，2025年12月份，我国重卡市场共计销售9.5万辆左右 （批发口径，包含出口和新能源），环比2025年11月下降约16%，比上年同期的8.42万 辆增长约13%。纵观2025年全年，我国重卡市场实现了九连涨，从4月份一直涨到12月 份，平均增速高达41%！ 9.5万辆放在最近八年来看，属于"中上水平"，低于2020年12月的11万辆，略高于2019 年12月销量。累计来看，2025年全年，我国重卡市场总销量达成了最近四年来的新高—— 113.7万辆，同比增长约26%。 2015-2025年我国重卡行业销量年度走势图（单位：万辆） 2025年12月，我国重卡行业批发销量同比增长约13%，国内终端销量情况又是如何的呢？ 同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the heavy truck industry [3] Core Insights - The heavy truck industry continues to show high prosperity, driven by policies encouraging vehicle replacement and increasing demand for new energy vehicles [10][51] - The report highlights three main drivers of growth: low oil and gas price differentials, a surge in new energy vehicle sales due to year-end purchasing incentives, and strong export demand, particularly from Africa [30][48][71] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In November 2025, wholesale heavy truck sales reached 113,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 65.3% and a month-on-month increase of 6.6% [10] - Heavy truck registration sales were 77,000 units, up 34.4% year-on-year and 9.4% month-on-month [10] - Heavy truck exports totaled 34,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 38.2% but a month-on-month decrease of 8.3% [10] Key Drivers - **Oil and Gas Price Differential**: The oil and gas price differential remains low, with liquefied natural gas priced at 4,213.7 RMB/ton and diesel at 6,883.8 RMB/ton, resulting in a differential of 2,670 RMB/ton [33] - **New Energy Vehicle Surge**: The new energy heavy truck registration reached 28,000 units in November 2025, marking a 192.6% increase year-on-year and a 40.8% increase month-on-month [51] - **Export Demand**: Heavy truck exports to Africa reached 14,111 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 99.7% [76] Market Segmentation - **By Purpose**: In November 2025, logistics vehicle registration was 60,000 units, up 39.7% year-on-year, while engineering vehicle registration was 17,000 units, up 18.6% year-on-year [13][23] - **By Energy Type**: Natural gas heavy truck registrations were 19,000 units, up 70.7% year-on-year, while new energy heavy trucks accounted for 28,000 units, with a penetration rate of 36.4% [51][38] Company Performance - The top three heavy truck manufacturers in November 2025 were China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, FAW Group, and Dongfeng Motor, with sales of 29,000, 24,000, and 17,000 units respectively [13][27] - The market shares for these companies were 25.5%, 21.0%, and 15.2%, showing varying changes compared to the previous year [27] Inventory Trends - Both enterprises and channels are increasing inventory levels, with a slight rise in inventory by 0.1 thousand units for enterprises and 0.3 thousand units for channels in November 2025 [14]

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Core Viewpoint - The natural gas heavy truck market in China has shown significant growth in September and October 2025, with year-on-year increases of 149% and 138% respectively, indicating a strong performance during the peak season. However, questions remain about whether this momentum will continue into December and what changes may occur in the industry landscape as the year concludes [1]. Sales Performance - In November 2025, the actual sales of natural gas heavy trucks reached 19,400 units, representing a month-on-month decrease of 8% but a year-on-year increase of 71%. This marks the fourth consecutive month of year-on-year growth [3][15]. - The overall heavy truck market saw total sales of 76,700 units in November, with natural gas heavy trucks outperforming the overall market growth for the fifth time this year, achieving a 71% year-on-year increase [7]. Monthly Trends - The monthly sales data for natural gas heavy trucks over the past five years shows that January and February 2025 had the highest sales figures compared to previous years. However, from March to July, sales were the second highest in five years, and November recorded the highest sales for the year [5]. Market Share and Competition - In November, natural gas heavy trucks accounted for 25.26% of total heavy truck sales, a decrease from 30.09% in October. The cumulative market share for January to November 2025 was 26.00%, lower than the previous year's 31.64% [7][21]. - Five companies sold over 1,000 units in November, with Jiefang leading at 5,449 units, followed by China National Heavy Duty Truck at 4,494 units. Other notable competitors included Dongfeng, Foton, and Shaanxi Automobile, all exceeding 2,500 units [17][18]. Price Influence - Natural gas prices fluctuated throughout 2025, with average prices around 4,400 RMB/ton in January and February, peaking near 4,600 RMB/ton in March and April, and then declining to below 4,200 RMB/ton by August. In November, prices rose above 4,350 RMB/ton, but this had little stimulating effect on sales [11]. Regional Sales Distribution - Sales of natural gas heavy trucks were distributed unevenly across regions, with Hebei, Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi being the top four provinces in terms of sales volume. Hebei alone accounted for 14.7% of total sales from January to November 2025 [11][13]. Year-to-Date Performance - Cumulatively, from January to November 2025, natural gas heavy truck sales reached 186,100 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10%. This growth is attributed to several provinces experiencing increased sales, while others saw declines [23][26]. Conclusion - The natural gas heavy truck market has rebounded after a period of decline, with a strong performance in the latter part of 2025. The potential for total sales to exceed 200,000 units this year remains high, indicating a promising outlook for the market [28].

Investment Highlights - November sales: Domestic sales met expectations, while wholesale and export exceeded expectations. November heavy truck production reached 114,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +84.4% and +9.8% respectively. Wholesale sales were 113,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +65.4% and +6.6%. Terminal sales were 77,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +34.3% and +9.6%. Exports reached 33,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +44.0% and +0.7%. Overall industry inventory increased by 420 units, with a total inventory coefficient of 1.8, indicating a reasonable level [2][14][17]. Industry Structure - In November, the performance of engineering vehicles outperformed logistics vehicles. Terminal sales of engineering vehicles were 8,500 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +41.2% and +13.1%. Logistics vehicle sales were 68,200 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +33.5% and +8.9%. The market share of engineering vehicles and logistics vehicles was 11.1% and 88.9% respectively, with engineering vehicle share increasing by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points, while logistics vehicle share decreased by 0.5 and 0.6 percentage points [3][36]. Market Share Dynamics - In November, Foton's domestic sales share increased year-on-year, while the export shares of Jiefang and Foton rose month-on-month. The terminal sales market shares for November were 21.1% for Jiefang, 18.0% for Dongfeng, 16.9% for Heavy Truck, 11.0% for Shaanxi Heavy Truck, and 12.4% for Foton, showing changes compared to the full year of 2024 [4][16][53]. Engine Market - Weichai maintained the top market share in the engine sector. In November, the market shares for Weichai, Cummins, Xichai, Heavy Truck, and Yuchai were 17.4%, 15.6%, 14.6%, 9.2%, and 11.1% respectively. Weichai's terminal matching volume was 13,000 units, with year-on-year growth of +11.8% but a month-on-month decline of -7.1% [5][19][70]. Investment Recommendations - The company is optimistic about the market performance driven by the National IV policy. Recommendations include investing in China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power, while also paying attention to the performance improvement potential of FAW Jiefang and Foton [7][18].

Core Insights - The heavy truck industry in November met the expectations of Dongwu Securities for domestic sales, while wholesale and export figures exceeded expectations [1] - The total inventory coefficient for the industry in November was calculated at 1.8, indicating a reasonable level [1] - The company forecasts that wholesale sales of heavy trucks will reach approximately 115,000 units by December 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40% [1] Sales Performance - November production of heavy trucks was 114,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 84.4% and a month-on-month increase of 9.8% [1] - Heavy truck wholesale sales in November reached 113,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 65.4% and month-on-month growth of 6.6% [1] - The terminal sales of heavy trucks in November were 77,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% and a month-on-month increase of 9.6% [1] - Exports of heavy trucks in November totaled 33,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 44.0% and a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [1] - The overall industry inventory increased by 4,200 units in November, with corporate inventory rising by 800 units and channel inventory increasing by 3,400 units [1] Industry Structure - In terms of usage, engineering vehicles outperformed logistics vehicles in November, with terminal sales of engineering vehicles at 8,500 units, showing year-on-year growth of 41.2% and month-on-month growth of 13.1% [2] - Logistics vehicle sales were 68,200 units, with year-on-year growth of 33.5% and month-on-month growth of 8.9% [2] - The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks in November was 25.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 5.38 percentage points [2] Market Share - In November, the domestic market share for terminal sales was led by Jiefang (21.1%), Dongfeng (18.0%), and others, with slight changes compared to the previous year [3] - For exports, Jiefang held a market share of 21.2%, showing an increase compared to the previous year [3] - Weichai maintained the highest market share in the engine segment at 17.4%, despite a decline compared to the previous year [4] - In November, Weichai's terminal matching volume was 13,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.8% [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [59]. Core Views - November sales data shows that domestic sales met expectations, while wholesale and export figures exceeded expectations [4][10]. - The overall industry performance in November indicates a positive trend, with significant year-on-year growth in production, wholesale, terminal sales, and exports [6][17]. Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - In November, wholesale sales of heavy trucks reached 113,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of 65.4% and 6.6%, respectively, surpassing expectations [2][17]. - Terminal sales for November were 77,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% and a month-on-month increase of 9.6%, aligning with expectations [2][14]. - Export sales for November totaled 33,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 44.0% and a slight month-on-month increase of 0.7%, exceeding expectations [2][17]. Market Structure - The market share of major manufacturers in terminal sales for November was as follows: Jiefang (21.1%), Dongfeng (18.0%), Heavy Truck (16.9%), Shaanxi Heavy Truck (11.0%), and Foton (12.4%) [5][34]. - In exports, the market share for November was: Jiefang (21.2%), Dongfeng (9.3%), Heavy Truck (45.2%), Shaanxi Heavy Truck (16.2%), and Foton (5.7%) [5][36]. - The engine market share in November was led by Weichai (17.4%), followed by Cummins (15.6%) and Xichai (14.6%) [7][45]. Inventory Analysis - The total industry inventory in November increased by 0.42 million units, with a total inventory coefficient of 1.8, indicating a reasonable level [18][44]. - Channel inventory saw an increase of 0.34 million units, while enterprise inventory rose by 0.08 million units [18][44]. Structural Insights - In terms of vehicle usage, November saw better performance in engineering vehicles compared to logistics vehicles, with terminal sales of engineering vehicles at 8,500 units, up 41.2% year-on-year [23]. - The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks reached 25.3% in November, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.38 percentage points [26].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the heavy truck industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that in November, domestic heavy truck sales reached 113,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 65% and a month-on-month increase of 7%. The cumulative sales from January to November reached 1.041 million units, up 27% year-on-year [2][4]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in heavy truck sales due to the economic recovery and the introduction of the "old-for-new" policy in 2025, projecting sales of 1.117 million units for 2025, a 24% increase year-on-year [4]. - The report emphasizes the growing penetration of new energy heavy trucks, expecting the penetration rate to reach 18% by 2025, driven by technological advancements and cost reductions [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In November, the sales structure of heavy trucks showed that semi-trailer trucks accounted for 51.7%, cargo trucks for 27.0%, and non-complete vehicles for 21.2%. The sales of semi-trailer trucks reached 62,000 units, up 85% year-on-year, while heavy cargo truck sales were 29,000 units, up 61% year-on-year [4]. - The report notes that the sales of domestic natural gas heavy trucks in November were 19,000 units, a significant increase of 154% year-on-year, although it saw a month-on-month decline of 12% [4]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the heavy truck market's high prosperity in November is attributed to the tail effect of the "old-for-new" policy and the continuation of the traditional peak season for heavy trucks [4]. - The report also highlights that the penetration rate of natural gas in heavy trucks was 17% in November, with expectations for further growth due to the economic advantages of natural gas vehicles for high-mileage operations [4]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Weichai Power, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, CIMC Vehicles, Foton Motor, and FAW Jiefang, based on their growth potential and market positioning [4].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the heavy-duty truck industry driven by domestic demand through vehicle replacement and the continued export opportunities, particularly in emerging markets [1][6][20]. Group 1: Market Overview - The heavy-duty truck market has seen a consistent decline in supply growth compared to demand over the past three years, indicating a tightening market [6][8]. - Domestic road freight turnover has remained relatively stable in recent years, with a notable decrease in heavy-duty truck ownership and capacity growth lagging behind demand growth [8][9]. Group 2: Pricing and Profitability - The logistics sector shows a stable demand for heavy-duty trucks, supported by a robust freight rate index, which indicates ongoing replacement demand for logistics-related heavy-duty trucks [9][10]. - The report highlights the relationship between freight rates, fuel costs, and transportation profits, suggesting that profitability remains viable despite fluctuations in operational costs [10]. Group 3: Sales and Production Forecast - Heavy-duty truck sales are projected to recover, with natural gas heavy-duty trucks expected to grow from approximately 200,000 units in 2025, supported by lower LNG/diesel price ratios [19][17]. - The report estimates that the export market for heavy-duty trucks could reach around 900,000 units annually, with significant growth potential in non-Western markets [20][25]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The report notes that the current global heavy-duty truck market remains stable outside of North America, Europe, Australia, and China, with China’s heavy-duty truck exports still having room for growth [20][21]. - The report identifies a competitive advantage for Chinese heavy-duty trucks in terms of cost, particularly in regions outside of Russia, where sales have decreased due to tax reasons [27][25].

Key Points - The core view is that in the heavy truck sector, exports will surpass domestic sales by 2026, with electric and natural gas vehicles outpacing diesel trucks, focusing on export leaders [2][3][12] - For 2025, domestic sales are expected to reach 814,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35.2%, while exports are projected at 332,000 units, up 14.3%, leading to a total wholesale volume of 1,143,000 units, reflecting a 26.7% increase [2][19] - The natural demand for heavy trucks is stabilizing, with an estimated 646,000 units driven by natural demand in 2025, indicating that policy support is not the sole driver of growth [2][19] - By 2026, the penetration rate of electric heavy trucks is expected to rise to 30%-35%, with natural gas trucks also gaining traction as gas prices decline and oil prices stabilize [3][12] - Investment recommendations include focusing on export leaders such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Duty Truck H), engine leaders like Weichai Power, and companies with potential in both export and domestic sales like China National Heavy Duty Truck A, FAW Jiefang, Foton Motor, and CIMC Vehicles [3][12] Commercial Vehicle Sector - The bus sector is expected to see stronger external demand than internal demand in 2026, with a projected 3% increase in domestic sales and a 30% increase in exports [5][13] - The key players in the bus sector include Yutong and King Long, which are expected to benefit from the dual drivers of domestic recovery and sustained overseas demand [6][13] Motorcycle Sector - The motorcycle market is witnessing a decline in domestic sales but a significant increase in exports, particularly for large-displacement motorcycles, which are expected to grow by 31% year-on-year in 2026 [8][14] - The total motorcycle sales for 2026 are projected to reach 19.38 million units, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles expected to account for 1.26 million units [8][14] - Investment recommendations in the motorcycle sector favor leading companies such as Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [9][14]