智通财经APP获悉，西部证券发布研报称，10月重卡行业生产、批发、零售及出口数据均超预期。该行 预计25年11月重卡批发销量10.3万辆左右，同比增长50%。看好国四政策刺激下全年板块行情。推荐中 国重汽(000951.SZ，03808)+潍柴动力(000338.SZ)，重视一汽解放(000800.SZ)+福田汽车(600166.SH)业 绩改善弹性。 东吴证券主要观点如下： 数据总览 批发：10月重卡批发销量10.6万辆，同环比分别为+60.0%/+0.6%，超该行预期。终端：10月重卡终端销 量7.0万辆，同环比分别为+56.6%/-15.9%，超该行预期。出口：10月重卡出口销量3.3万辆，同环比分别 为+43.8%/+4.8%，超该行预期。库存：渠道库存增加0.32万辆，当前行业总库存11.5万辆。展望：该行 预计25年11月重卡批发销量10.3万辆左右，同比增长50%。 10月格局：潍柴份额位居第一，环比上升 发动机格局：潍柴份额位居第一，环比上升。1)整体：终端口径下，10月潍柴/康明斯/锡柴/重汽/玉柴市 占率分别20.5%/17.1%/14.7%/9.3%/11.4%，较24年全年分别-7.0 ...

证券研究报告·行业研究·汽车与零部件 重卡行业10月跟踪月报： 内销与出口共振，景气度持续向好 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199793 2025年11月26日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 1 数据总览 ◼ 批发：10 月重卡批发销量 10.6 万辆，同环比分别为+60.0%/+0.6%，超我们预期。 ◼ 终端：10 月重卡终端销量 7.0 万辆，同环比分别为+56.6%/-15.9%，超我们预期。 ◼ 出口：10 月重卡出口销量 3.3 万辆，同环比分别为+43.8%/+4.8%，超我们预期。 ◼ 库存：渠道库存增加0.32万辆，当前行业总库存11.5万辆。 ◼ 展望：我们预计25年11月重卡批发销量10.3万辆左右，同比增长50%。 | | 25M1 | 25M2 | 25M3 | 25M4 | 25M5 | 25M6 | 25M7 | 25M8 | 25M9 | 25M10 | 2025E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Haitong indicates that with economic recovery and the implementation of the "old-for-new" policy for heavy trucks in 2025, domestic heavy truck sales are expected to gradually rebound, with a projected sales volume of 1.067 million units in 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year increase [1] Summary by Sections Overall Sales Performance - In October, domestic heavy truck sales reached 106,000 units, marking a 60% year-on-year increase and a 1% month-on-month increase. Cumulatively, from January to October, total sales amounted to 928,000 units, reflecting a 24% year-on-year growth. The "old-for-new" policy continues to support strong terminal sales [2] Sales Structure - In October 2025, the sales proportions of semi-trailer tractors, cargo trucks, and incomplete vehicles within the heavy truck segment were 51.4%, 27.2%, and 21.4% respectively. This shows an increase in the share of heavy cargo trucks compared to 2024. In October, semi-trailer tractor sales were 59,000 units, up 83% year-on-year and 4% month-on-month [3] Focus on Natural Gas Heavy Trucks - In October, domestic natural gas heavy truck sales reached 22,000 units, a significant 197% year-on-year increase and a 2% month-on-month increase. Cumulatively, from January to October, natural gas heavy truck sales totaled 158,000 units, up 12% year-on-year. The penetration rate of natural gas in heavy trucks was 20% in October and 17% for the year-to-date [4] Focus on New Energy Heavy Trucks - In October, domestic new energy heavy truck sales were 20,000 units, representing a 176% year-on-year increase and a 7% month-on-month increase. From January to October, cumulative sales of new energy heavy trucks reached 141,000 units, also up 176% year-on-year. The penetration rate for new energy heavy trucks was 19% in October and 15% year-to-date [4]

Core Viewpoint - The natural gas heavy truck market in China has shown significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 138% in October 2025, marking the third consecutive month of growth after a period of decline earlier in the year [1][3][32]. Sales Performance - In October 2025, the domestic sales of natural gas heavy trucks reached 21,100 units, a decrease of 10% compared to September but a substantial increase of 138% year-on-year [3][6]. - The overall heavy truck market sold 70,100 units in October, with natural gas heavy trucks outperforming the market growth rate for the fourth time this year [8][20]. - The market share of natural gas heavy trucks in October was 30.09%, up from 28.12% in September, marking a return to over 30% for the first time in six months [8][23]. Market Trends - The cumulative sales of natural gas heavy trucks from January to October 2025 reached 166,800 units, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase [25][30]. - The sales performance of major manufacturers varied, with some companies experiencing significant growth while others faced declines [20][28]. Price Influence - Natural gas prices remained relatively stable throughout 2025, with fluctuations observed in the first half of the year. Prices began to rise significantly in late October [11][32]. Regional Distribution - The sales of natural gas heavy trucks were concentrated in resource-rich provinces such as Hebei, Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi, with Hebei accounting for 15% of total sales [11][12]. Manufacturer Performance - In October 2025, the top five manufacturers sold over 1,000 units each, with Jiefang leading at 5,829 units, followed by China National Heavy Duty Truck at 4,672 units [17][20]. - The market share of Jiefang and China National Heavy Duty Truck exceeded 20%, while other manufacturers like Dongfeng, Shaanxi Automobile, and Foton also maintained significant shares [23][30].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The heavy truck industry in China is experiencing strong demand, with sales in October 2025 reaching approximately 93,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 40% [1][3] - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly stimulated sales, leading to a continuous growth trend since April, with an average growth rate of around 40% [1][3] - Total sales for the first ten months of 2025 have already surpassed the entire sales of 2024, indicating robust market performance [4] Core Insights and Arguments - The heavy truck market is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 20% for the entire year, driven by fiscal subsidies and the potential cancellation of new energy vehicle tax exemptions [1][5] - The "old-for-new" policy has been expanded to include National IV vehicles, with an estimated replacement of 140,000 to 150,000 units, significantly boosting both domestic demand and exports [1][6] - Domestic demand is projected to reach 800,000 units, with exports expected to be around 300,000 units, leading to a total market volume of 1.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of over 20% [1][6] Market Performance and Future Expectations - The domestic market is expected to continue its strong recovery, with November and December projected to see over 60% growth in vehicle registrations [1][7] - The natural gas heavy truck segment is maintaining a high penetration rate, with an expected annual growth rate of 120% and a penetration rate exceeding 27% [1][9] - New energy heavy truck sales have reached record highs, with October sales increasing by 140% year-on-year, although there may be downward pressure next year due to reduced policy effects [1][10] Export Outlook - Exports are anticipated to reach 300,000 units for the year, with strong demand from non-Russian regions, particularly Europe, Africa, and Asia, showing growth rates of over 30-40% [1][12] - The export structure is improving, with a higher proportion of high-end products, which will contribute to overall sales growth [1][12] Investment Opportunities - The Chinese heavy truck sector is viewed as having significant investment potential due to its low valuation, high growth rates, and attractive dividend yields [2][3][14] - Companies such as Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group are highlighted as having strong growth potential and defensive attributes, making them attractive investment targets [3][14][15][16] Additional Insights - The diesel heavy truck market is also performing well, with a 20% year-on-year increase in terminal sales in October, indicating a potential optimization of market share as the proportion of new energy trucks declines [1][11] - The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of continued strong performance in the heavy truck market despite potential challenges in the coming year [14]

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck market in China has shown significant growth in October 2025, driven by the old truck replacement policy, with sales reaching approximately 93,000 units, marking a 40% year-on-year increase despite a 12% month-on-month decline from September [1][4]. Sales Performance - In October 2025, the heavy truck market sold around 93,000 units, the second-highest level in the past eight years, only lower than October 2020's 137,500 units [4]. - Cumulative sales from January to October 2025 exceeded 916,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of about 22%, with expectations to surpass 1 million units by the end of November [4]. Market Trends - The heavy truck market has experienced seven consecutive months of growth from April to October 2025, with an average growth rate of 39% during this period [1]. - The terminal sales of heavy trucks have been strong, with significant year-on-year increases observed from April to October, particularly in September with a 92% increase [4]. Export Growth - Heavy truck exports have also shown steady growth, with October 2025 expected to see a nearly 10% year-on-year increase in export wholesale volume, leading to an annual export total exceeding 300,000 units [5]. Policy Impact - The growth in the heavy truck market is largely attributed to the "old-for-new" policy for operational trucks, which has been a significant driver since April 2025 [8]. - Despite some local governments suspending subsidies due to fiscal constraints, the reactivation of subsidies in certain areas and the impending deadline for the policy are expected to sustain high growth rates in November [8]. Segment Performance - In October 2025, the terminal sales of natural gas heavy trucks are projected to have doubled year-on-year, while electric heavy trucks are expected to see a 140% increase [9][10]. - The penetration rate of electric heavy trucks reached nearly 28% in October, driven by the old-for-new policy and upcoming tax incentives for electric vehicles [10]. - Diesel heavy trucks also contributed to growth, with an expected year-on-year increase of nearly 20% in terminal sales for October [11].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with significant revenue growth and a positive outlook for the heavy truck industry, benefiting from both domestic demand and export opportunities [3][4][8]. Financial Performance Overview - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 14.33 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 56% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 382 million yuan, up 21% year-on-year and 6.5% quarter-on-quarter, while the non-recurring net profit was 359 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.1% [3]. Sales Growth - The company benefited from a recovery in industry demand, with wholesale sales reaching 76,000 units in Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 53.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.3% [4]. - Export sales were 41,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 55.1% and quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.2% [4]. - Domestic sales for heavy trucks were 22,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 53.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.2% [4]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 7.12%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year and 0.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to changes in sales structure and increased competition in export markets [5]. - The net profit margin was 3.8%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [5]. Expense Management - The operating expense ratio decreased to 2.35%, down 0.95 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to revenue growth diluting expenses [6]. - Research and development expenses increased by 63 million yuan quarter-on-quarter, driven by higher investment in axle research [6]. Industry Outlook - The heavy truck industry is at a turning point in a 3-5 year cycle, with leading companies expected to continue benefiting and realizing profits [7]. - Export growth is anticipated in non-Russian regions, with a focus on the pricing power of Chinese brands [8]. - Domestic demand is expected to grow under the influence of the National IV policy, with total domestic sales projected to reach 750,000 to 800,000 units this year [8]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.658 billion, 1.894 billion, and 2.165 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.41, 1.61, and 1.84 yuan [9]. - The company is rated as a "buy" due to its solid market position and low valuation, with PE ratios projected at 12.85, 11.25, and 9.84 for 2025-2027 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck market in China has shown significant growth in October 2025, driven by policies encouraging the replacement of old vehicles, despite a slight month-on-month decline in sales compared to September 2025 [2][5][8]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In October 2025, approximately 93,000 heavy trucks were sold, marking a 40% year-on-year increase from 66,400 units in the same month last year, although it represents a 12% decrease from September 2025 [2][5]. - Cumulatively, from January to October 2025, the heavy truck market has sold over 916,000 units, reflecting a 22% year-on-year growth, with expectations to surpass 1 million units by November [5]. - The average growth rate from April to October 2025 has been 39%, with consistent year-on-year increases observed each month [2][5]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The growth in the heavy truck market is largely attributed to the "old-for-new" vehicle replacement policy, which has been a significant driver since April 2025 [8]. - Despite some local governments suspending subsidies due to fiscal constraints, the release of the last batch of subsidy funds in late September has reignited some support for the market [8]. Group 3: Segment Performance - The natural gas heavy truck segment has seen a remarkable increase, with terminal sales expected to grow by approximately 120% year-on-year in October 2025, following a 149% increase in September [10][12]. - The electric heavy truck segment is also performing well, with an anticipated terminal sales volume of around 20,000 units in October 2025, representing over a 140% year-on-year increase [12]. - Diesel heavy trucks are projected to see a nearly 20% increase in terminal sales in October 2025, contributing significantly to overall market growth [14].

Core Insights - Weichai Power Co., Ltd. reported strong financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue of 170.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.88 billion yuan, up 5.7% [1] - The third quarter alone saw revenue of 57.42 billion yuan, a 16.1% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.23 billion yuan, reflecting a 29.5% growth, both marking historical highs for the period [1] - The company is focusing on strategic emerging businesses while consolidating its traditional advantages, leading to improved profitability and a diversified business model [1] Industry Overview - The heavy truck market in China showed a robust recovery in the first three quarters of 2025, with total sales of 823,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.5% [2] - The natural gas heavy truck segment experienced significant growth, with a 37% year-on-year increase in sales during the third quarter, driven by policies promoting vehicle replacement and the recovery of oil and gas price differentials [2] - Weichai Power's engine sales reached 536,000 units in the first three quarters, with heavy truck engines accounting for 188,000 units, including 117,000 diesel engines and 71,000 natural gas engines [2] Business Segments - The large-bore engine segment has emerged as a key growth driver, with sales exceeding 7,700 units in the first three quarters, representing over 30% growth [4] - The demand for large-bore engines is fueled by the exponential growth in global computing power and the increasing need for high-reliability power sources in data centers [4] - Weichai Power's technology advancements in large-bore engines have positioned it favorably against foreign competitors, who face longer production expansion cycles [6] New Energy and International Expansion - The new energy business has shown rapid growth, with revenue reaching 1.97 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a remarkable 84% increase [7] - The company is actively pursuing new energy technologies, including pure electric power systems and hydrogen fuel cells, to align with the dual carbon goals [7] - Weichai Power's international business remains resilient, with a strong demand for its products in markets such as Asia-Pacific, Europe, and North America, contributing to a significant portion of its revenue [8] Future Outlook - Weichai Power aims to continue its three-dimensional development strategy, focusing on consolidating traditional business while accelerating growth in emerging sectors [9] - The company anticipates sustained growth in its large-bore engine business and further optimization of its profitability structure as the natural gas heavy truck market recovers [9] - The impressive performance in the first three quarters of 2025 underscores the effectiveness of Weichai Power's strategic positioning and its growing competitiveness in the global supply chain [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the heavy truck industry [3] Core Insights - The heavy truck industry is experiencing a significant recovery in demand, driven by policies encouraging vehicle replacement and infrastructure investments [9][12][22] - The sales of natural gas heavy trucks and new energy heavy trucks are showing strong growth, while exports have seen a decline but are expected to improve in the long term [32][50][75] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In September 2025, wholesale sales of heavy trucks reached 100,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 73.3% and a month-on-month increase of 9.1% [9] - The number of registered heavy trucks was 83,000 units, up 92.0% year-on-year and 24.9% month-on-month [9] - Heavy truck exports totaled 32,000 units, down 22.7% year-on-year but up 8.3% month-on-month [9] - Inventory levels are decreasing, indicating a trend towards inventory destocking [13] Natural Gas Heavy Trucks - In September 2025, the sales of natural gas heavy trucks reached 23,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 148.8% and a month-on-month increase of 40.4% [33] - The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks was 28.1%, up 6.4 percentage points year-on-year [33] New Energy Heavy Trucks - New energy heavy truck sales reached 23,000 units in September 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 209.5% and a month-on-month increase of 33.6% [50] - The penetration rate for new energy heavy trucks was 28.2%, an increase of 10.7 percentage points year-on-year [50] Export Trends - Heavy truck exports in September 2025 were 32,000 units, down 23% year-on-year but up 8.3% month-on-month [75] - The export distribution by continent showed significant growth in Africa and Asia, while Europe experienced a decline [78]