在经历1月份市场的"开门红"后，作为春节月的2月份，我国重卡行业形势如何？表现还会超预期吗？刚刚到来的3月份销售旺季，又会 是怎样的一番景象呢？ 请看第一商用车网带来的分析报道。 2月重卡销量同比小幅下滑，在意料之中 2026年的春节假期是从2月中旬到2月下旬，2月16日是除夕，比2025年除夕（1月28日）晚了19天。春节是中国人民家庭团圆的传统 佳节，中国的老百姓不管多忙多累，都要回家团聚，货运行业从业者同样如此。因此，春节所在月份必然是货车购买的淡季，只有等到 正月十五元宵节以后，制造业复工复产拉动货运业复工复产，物流从业者复工复产需要有更好、更新、更高出勤率的车辆装备，此时， 旺盛的购车需求和传统商用车销售旺季才会如期到来。由于今年春节比去年春节晚了近20天，去年的卡车销售旺季是在2月中旬以后才 陆续到来的，因此，今年的卡车销售旺季要在3月初以后才会在各个地区陆续到来。 另一方面，全国各地的重卡整车生产企业、零部件企业、卡车品牌经销商也要放春节假，虽然有的企业假期天数放不满，但终归是要放 的。一放假，车企的生产量和出库量肯定会环比甚至同比下降，进而影响到今年2月份的重卡行业整体销量。 此外，2026年 ...

商用车行业 2026 年度投资策略： "以旧换新"政策延续 2026 置换+出口需求主导 20260227 摘要 2025 年重卡行业总量复苏，受益于以旧换新政策，全年批发销量达 114.4 万辆，同比增长 26.8%；上牌量 79.9 万辆，同比增长 32.7%， 其中物流车需求增长显著，但三季度价格竞争加剧，影响盈利能力。 2025 年重卡出口 34.1 万辆，同比增长 17.4%，东南亚、中东和非洲 是主要增长区域，其中尼日利亚增幅显著，但俄罗斯出口大幅下滑。中 国重汽市占率领先，行业 CR4 维持高位。 2025 年重卡燃料结构持续演变，柴油车需求下降，天然气重卡渗透率 企稳回升，新能源重卡销量达 22.9 万辆，同比增长 182%，渗透率提 升至 28.8%，电动化是主要技术路线。 2026 年重卡行业预计内需在外需双轮驱动下持续向上，以旧换新政策 延续，国五车辆进入报废期，东南亚、中东、非洲市场加速渗透，估值 体系有望重塑。 2025 年客车行业进入"内需筑底+出口高增"新周期，全年大中客批发 销量 12.2 万辆，同比增长 5%；出口 5.9 万辆，同比增长 34.6%，成 为增长主导力量。新能 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Heavy-Duty Trucks Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the heavy-duty truck (HDT) sector, with a positive outlook for 2026, driven by various factors including policy support and market demand [2][4][19]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Positive Market Outlook**: The heavy-duty truck sector is expected to see significant growth, with wholesale sales projected to increase by approximately 10% year-on-year in 2026, potentially reaching over 1.25 million units [4][19]. 2. **Sales Performance**: January 2026 saw wholesale sales of 105,000 units, a 46% year-on-year increase, indicating strong market demand [8][19]. 3. **Policy Support**: The ongoing transition from National IV to National V emission standards is expected to drive demand, with an estimated 500,000 to 600,000 trucks eligible for replacement [4][19]. 4. **Export Growth**: The export market is anticipated to grow by over 15% in 2026, with strong demand from regions such as Africa and Southeast Asia [6][19]. 5. **Domestic Demand**: Domestic demand is projected to contribute significantly to sales, with expectations of 800,000 to 850,000 units sold domestically in 2026 [19]. 6. **Market Dynamics**: The balance of supply and demand, along with the exit of older models, is crucial for the industry's growth trajectory [7][19]. 7. **Profitability Outlook**: The profitability of heavy-duty truck manufacturers is expected to improve as market conditions stabilize and demand increases [20]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Technological Advancements**: The industry is witnessing a shift towards electric and alternative fuel vehicles, with BEV penetration rates expected to stabilize between 30% and 35% in 2026 [16][20]. 2. **Competitive Landscape**: Key players such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (CNHTC), Foton Motor, and Weichai Power are highlighted as strong performers in the market [17][20]. 3. **Market Challenges**: The industry has faced pressures on profitability due to competitive pricing and regulatory changes, but these challenges are expected to ease as the market recovers [20]. 4. **Long-term Trends**: The transition to newer emission standards and the potential introduction of National VII standards will likely drive further demand for new trucks in the coming years [14][19]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call regarding the heavy-duty truck industry, emphasizing a robust growth outlook supported by favorable market conditions and policy frameworks.

总量上看，1月国产重卡销量10.5万台，同比增长46%，环比增长3% 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，随着2026年重卡"以旧换新"政策确认继续实施，2026年重卡 国内销量有望达到76万，同比-5.3%。2025年以旧换新政策效果可观，重卡销量基数较高，但该行观察 到国内物流景气度尚可，在2017-21年高置换基数下，预计重卡销量下滑幅度有限。整体看批发销量， 该行认为2026年有望达到116万台，同比+1.5%，出口有望维持增长。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 1月重卡新能源渗透率19%。根据该行对重卡全生命周期成本(TCO)的测算，新能源重卡的TCO大致在年 度里程4.5至10万公里时最优。该行认为，随着技术成熟与成本下降，新能源重卡已具备内生增长动 力，2026年新能源渗透率有望继续增长，边际上应持续关注新能源重卡以旧换新政策落地情况。 风险提示：经济发展不及预期，原材料价格大幅上涨。 该行认为，1月重卡批发销量同环比增长的主要来自企业端的驱动，2025年主要重卡企业年度目标完成 度较好，因此结转了一部分销量到2026年，以确保2026年"开门红"，鼓舞经销体系和产业链合作伙伴的 信心。同时，批发" ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the heavy truck industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market benchmark [4]. Core Insights - In January, domestic heavy truck sales reached 105,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 46% and a month-on-month increase of 3% [2][4]. - The sales of domestic natural gas heavy trucks in January were 19,000 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 98% and a month-on-month growth of 50% [2][4]. - The sales of domestic new energy heavy trucks in January were 20,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 102% but a month-on-month decrease of 24% [2][4]. - The report anticipates that the heavy truck sales in China for 2026 will reach 760,000 units, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, while wholesale sales are expected to reach 1.16 million units, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Heavy Truck Sales Performance - January's heavy truck sales were driven by corporate demand, with major manufacturers achieving good completion rates for their annual targets, leading to a portion of sales being carried over into 2026 [4]. - The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks in January was 18%, with significant growth expected due to lower operating costs for vehicles with high annual mileage [4]. - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks was 19% in January, with expectations for continued growth as technology matures and costs decrease [4]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Weichai Power, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Foton Motor, CIMC Vehicles, and FAW Jiefang, all rated as "Overweight" [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the heavy truck industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market benchmark [4]. Core Insights - In January, domestic heavy truck sales reached 105,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 46% and a month-on-month increase of 3% [2][4]. - The sales of domestic natural gas heavy trucks in January were 19,000 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 98% and a month-on-month growth of 50% [2][4]. - The sales of domestic new energy heavy trucks in January were 20,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 102% but a month-on-month decrease of 24% [2][4]. - The report anticipates that the domestic heavy truck sales in 2026 will reach 760,000 units, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, while wholesale sales are expected to reach 1.16 million units, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Heavy Truck Sales Performance - January's heavy truck sales were driven by corporate demand, with major manufacturers achieving good completion rates for their annual targets, leading to a portion of sales being carried over into 2026 [4]. - The report highlights that the January sales performance is crucial for boosting confidence among dealers and supply chain partners ahead of the traditional sales peak after the Spring Festival [4]. Natural Gas Heavy Trucks - The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks in January was 18%, with a significant increase in sales driven by lower operating costs for vehicles with high annual mileage [4]. - The report suggests that the penetration of natural gas heavy trucks is likely to increase further due to large-scale equipment renewal policies [4]. New Energy Heavy Trucks - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks in January was 19%, with the total cost of ownership (TCO) being optimal for annual mileage between 45,000 to 100,000 kilometers [4]. - The report indicates that as technology matures and costs decrease, new energy heavy trucks are expected to have intrinsic growth momentum, with continued focus on the implementation of replacement policies [4]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Weichai Power, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Foton Motor, CIMC Vehicles, and FAW Jiefang, all rated as "Overweight" [4][5].

第一商用车网发文称，2026年首月，国内天然气重卡实销1.1万辆，同比增长43%，收获"开门红"。从市 场份额看，1月份天然气重卡市场有5家企业份额超过10%，其中排名前2位的解放(000800.SZ)、重汽 (000951.SZ)份额均超过20%，分别达到27.6%和23.2%。 由最近五年国内天然气重卡终端销量月度走势图可见，天然气重卡历年1月份销量都不算高，在2026年 之前均未超过1万辆，1.1万辆的销量不仅是近五年最高，也是史上最佳1月份。不过客观地看，虽然 2026年天然气重卡市场以史上最高1月份实现"开门红"，但连增势头继续的难度将非常大。 1月份，重卡市场整体实销4.84万辆，同比增长44%，天然气重卡1月份同比增长43%，增幅略低于重卡 市场整体增速。1月份，天然气重卡1.1万辆的销量在重卡终端实销中占到22.65%的份额，较上月 (14.90%)提升接近8个百分点(如上图)，较2025年全年占比(24.83%%)则小幅下滑。 从终端销售区域来看，2026年1月份，全国31个省级行政区都有天然气重卡挂牌上路，区域分布仍呈现 出极不均衡的状态，河北、山东、四川、宁夏、河南、新疆排名2026年1 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - In January 2026, China's heavy truck market sold approximately 105,400 units, representing a year-on-year growth of about 46% [2][4] - The company maintains a good operational status, with overall production and sales scale achieving growth compared to the same period last year [2][4] - The company continues to strengthen product competitiveness and actively expand market share, remaining a leader in the heavy truck industry [3][4] Group 2: New Energy Heavy Trucks - The new energy heavy truck market in China is experiencing strong growth, with new sales reaching 20,600 units in January 2026, a significant year-on-year increase of 184% [4] - Supported by favorable policies and technological innovations, the new energy heavy truck sector is entering a new development cycle [4] - The company plans to deepen its focus in this area, optimizing product mix and market strategies to enhance overall competitiveness [4] Group 3: Export Performance - The company has achieved continuous growth in its export business, maintaining the industry’s leading position for 21 consecutive years [5] - The export markets primarily include Africa, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, covering over 150 countries and regions globally [5] - The company is making breakthroughs in emerging markets, contributing to its strong export performance [5] Group 4: Axle Company Operations - The axle company is a subsidiary in which the company holds a 51% stake, ensuring stable market demand and revenue through close cooperation with the group’s vehicle production units [6] - The axle company has been recognized as a high-tech enterprise, allowing it to benefit from relevant tax incentives [6] - It continues to operate steadily with good profitability levels [6] Group 5: Natural Gas Heavy Trucks - In 2025, the cumulative sales of natural gas heavy trucks reached 12,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31% [7] - The performance of natural gas heavy trucks is steadily improving in terms of range and power, narrowing the gap with diesel vehicles [7] - The company remains optimistic about the natural gas heavy truck market and plans to enhance product competitiveness and long-term strategic layout [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - In January 2026, the domestic heavy truck wholesale sales are expected to reach approximately 100,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 39% and remaining stable compared to December 2025. The terminal sales are projected to be between 30,000 to 32,000 units, reflecting a decrease of 5% to 10% year-on-year. Export sales are expected to exceed 26,000 units, showing a growth of over 20% [2][10] - The sales of new energy vehicles have significantly declined, with January 2026 sales falling below 7,000 units, a month-on-month decrease of about 85%. The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks is approximately 21%, down about 33 percentage points [2][10] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to support domestic demand, while exports are anticipated to grow due to favorable conditions in overseas markets. Heavy truck companies are likely to maintain high growth in performance, coupled with high dividends, enhancing their investment value. Additionally, the ongoing demand for primary and backup power sources in the context of North America's electricity shortages is expected to remain robust, with key recommendations for investment in China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power [2][10] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The heavy truck market in China sold around 100,000 units in January 2026, a significant increase from 72,200 units in the same month last year, marking a 39% year-on-year growth [4][10] - Terminal sales are estimated to be between 30,000 to 32,000 units, which is a decrease of 5% to 10% compared to the previous year [10] New Energy Vehicles - New energy heavy truck sales have seen a drastic decline, with January 2026 sales below 7,000 units, a month-on-month drop of approximately 85% [10] - The penetration rate for new energy heavy trucks has decreased to about 21%, down 33 percentage points from the previous period [10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the "old-for-new" policy will bolster domestic demand, while export growth will be supported by favorable conditions in international markets. Heavy truck manufacturers are expected to achieve high growth in their financial performance, making them attractive investment opportunities [10]

Key Points Summary Industry Overview - The heavy-duty truck (重卡) industry experienced a strong performance in January, with sales exceeding expectations, particularly in the natural gas heavy-duty truck segment [1]. Sales Performance - January heavy-duty truck sales reached 100,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 39% and remaining flat month-on-month [1]. - Even after adjusting for the Chinese New Year timing, the average daily sales still showed a year-on-year increase of 20% [1]. - The export sales of heavy-duty trucks in January increased by over 20% year-on-year [1]. Forecast and Trends - The terminal sales for January are expected to decline by 5% to 10% year-on-year, primarily due to the oversaturation in the new energy heavy-duty truck market [1]. - New energy heavy-duty truck sales are projected to remain flat year-on-year, while natural gas heavy-duty truck sales are expected to increase by 30% year-on-year [1]. Investment Recommendations - The strong performance of export heavy-duty trucks and natural gas heavy-duty trucks supports previous assessments [1]. - Continued recommendations are made for leading companies in the heavy-duty truck export sector, such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (中国重汽), and for leading companies in the natural gas engine and electric power energy business, such as Weichai Power (潍柴动力) [1].