最近几个月的重卡市场，已经不是同比涨不涨的问题，而是涨多少的问题。 在淡季不淡、同比大增的7、8月份过后，重卡行业迎来了"金九"。在9月份这个旺季里，重卡 市场交出了什么成绩单？会刷新大家的眼球吗？ 请看第一商用车网带来的分析报道。 9月重卡狂飙10万+，全年有机会冲110万辆？ 在老旧货车以旧换新政策的驱动下，2025年的9月份，含金量十足。 根据第一商用车网初步掌握的数据，2025年9月份，我国重卡市场共计销售10.5万辆左右 （批发口径，包含出口和新能源），环比今年8月上涨15%，比上年同期的5.8万辆大幅增长 约82%。截止到目前，重卡市场已经实现了六连涨——4月份销量同比增长6.5%，5月份同比 增长13.6%，6月份同比增长37%，7月份销量同比增长46%，8月份销量同比增长47%，9 月份则同比上涨了82%，4-9月份近六个月的平均增速高达39%。 2019-2025年我国重卡市场销量月度走势图（单位：辆） 10.5万辆放在最近八年来看，属于第二高水平，只低于2020年9月的15.1万辆，比其他年份 的9月份销量都要高，市场整体表现超预期。累计来看，今年1-9月，我国重卡市场累计销量 超过了80 ...

本文来自格隆汇专栏：国泰海通证券研究；作者：刘一鸣、张予名 报告导读：总量上看，8月国产重卡销量9.2万台，同比增长47%，环比增长8%。聚焦天然气重卡，8月 国产天然气重卡销量1.6万台，同比增长32%，环比增长30%。 风险提示：经济发展不及预期，原材料价格大幅上涨。 注：以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的研究报告《8月重卡同比五连增，天然气迎来复苏》；报告 作者： 刘一鸣 S0880525040050，张予名 S0880125042241 总量上看，8月国产重卡销量9.2万台，同比增长47%，环比增长8%。1-8月国产重卡累计销量71.6万台， 同比增长15%。我们认为，8月重卡总量的维持较高增长，一是去年同期基数较低，二是从五月中下旬 直至八月，"以旧换新"政策对重卡新车市场保持了较为稳定的促进作用，进而推动了重卡行业连续五个 月的同比快速增长。其中，电动重卡高歌猛进，同比继续呈现爆发式增长；天然气重卡逆转颓势，在连 续五个月同比下滑后迎来了复苏。 从销量结构上看，2025年8月半挂牵引车/载货车/非完整车辆销量占重卡整体的比例分别为 50.6%/27.8%/21.7%，此前2024年为51.9%/2 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，随着经济恢复，以及2025年重卡"以旧换新"政策的推出，国 产重卡销量有望逐渐回升，预计2025年销量为106.7万台，同比增长18%。近年来，国产新能源重卡技 术逐渐成熟，成本快速下降，预计国内新能源渗透率有比较大的提升空间，预计2025年渗透率将达到 15%。重卡行业的成长空间仍然存在，具体体现在国内的景气度修复，以及出口的持续成长。此外随着 天然气重卡的发展，行业门槛提升有望带动头部企业盈利能力提升。 聚焦天然气重卡，8月国产天然气重卡销量1.6万台，同比增长32%，环比增长30%。1-8月国产天然气 重卡累计销量11.6万台，同比下滑9%。天然气半挂牵引车：8月国产天然气半挂牵引车销量1.5万台，同 比增长33%，环比增长32%。1-8月国产天然气半挂牵引车累计销量11.2万台，同比下滑10%。8月重卡 的天然气渗透率为17%，半挂牵引车的天然气渗透率为32%。根据对重卡全生命周期成本的测算，对于 年度平均行驶里程大于15万公里的牵引车而言，大部分时间段使用天然气是较为经济的。在大规模设备 更新政策的推动下，天然气重卡作为使用成本较低的设备，其渗透率有望进一步提 ...

报告导读： 总量上看， 8 月国产重卡销量 9.2 万台，同比增长 47% ，环比增长 8% 。 聚焦天然气重卡， 8 月国产天然气重卡销量 1.6 万台，同比增长 32% ，环比增长 30% 投资策略与建议： 随着经济恢复，以及 2025 年重卡"以旧换新"政策的推出，我们认为国产重卡销量有望逐渐回升，预计 2025 年销量为 106.7 万台，同 比增长 18% 。近年来，国产新能源重卡技术逐渐成熟，成本快速下降，我们预计国内新能源渗透率有比较大的提升空间，预计 2025 年渗透率将达到 15% 。 我们认为重卡行业的成长空间仍然存在，具体体现在国内的景气度修复，以及出口的持续成长。此外随着天然气重卡的发展，我们认为行业门槛提升有望 带动头部企业盈利能力提升。 总量上看， 8 月国产重卡销量 9.2 万台，同比增长 47% ，环比增长 8% 。 1-8 月国产重卡累计销量 71.6 万台，同比增长 15% 。我们认为， 8 月重卡 总量的维持较高增长，一是去年同期基数较低，二是从五月中下旬直至八月，"以旧换新"政策对重卡新车市场保持了较为稳定的促进作用，进而推动了重卡行 业连续五个月的同比快速增长。其中， ...

8 月重卡同比五连增，天然气迎来复苏 [Table_Industry] 汽车 2025 年 8 月重卡行业月报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | | 张予名(研究助理) | 021-23154145 | zhangyuming@gtht.com | S0880125042241 | 本报告导读： 总量上看，8 月国产重卡销量 9.2 万台，同比增长 47%，环比增长 8%。聚焦天然气 重卡，8 月国产天然气重卡销量 1.6 万台，同比增长 32%，环比增长 30%。 汽车《优必选获新订单，特斯拉发布第四篇章》 2025.09.08 股 票 研 究 究 报 告 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 汽车《国内乘用车市场价格战持续放缓》 2025.09.21 汽车《L2 强标开启征求意见，智驾商业化更进一 步》2025.09.18 汽车《《汽车行业稳增长工作方案》发布，推动汽 ...

自2025年3月份起，我国天然气重卡市场已遭遇"5连降"，3-7月平均同比降幅达到27%，7月过后累计销量降幅达到17%。 在连续5月遭遇同比下滑后，8月份，天然气重卡市场终于重获增长。 请看第一商用车网的分析报道。 根据第一商用车网掌握的终端销量数据（交强险口径，不含出口和军品），2025年8月份，国内天然气重卡实销1.67万辆，环比今年7 月份增长19%，同比也实现增长，增幅为36%，同比增幅转正（2025年7月份天然气重卡销量同比下降22%），结束了这一波长达5个 月的连降。 由最近五年国内天然气重卡终端销量月度走势图可见，1月份和2月份，代表2025年的红色柱体比之前任何一年都高，但自3月份开始， 红色柱体比代表2024年的蓝色柱体明显要矮许多。今年3-7月份销量在近五年里均排在第2高位（1月份和2月份都是五年最高）；8月 份，天然气重卡销量同比增长36%，1.67万辆的销量在近五年里仍是第2高（低于2023年8月份）。 8月销1.67万辆，环比增长19%，同比增长36% （注：其他包括吉湖北、广东、北京……上海、海南、西藏等省、区、市） 从增幅来看，新疆、四川、内蒙古、甘肃、重庆、吉林等区域今年1- ...

政策市场双利好，天然气重卡需求回暖。受油气价差稳定以及北方区域"以旧换新"政策 落地影响，8月天然气重卡需求明显回暖，环比增长超过15%，同比增长超30%，国内渗透 率恢复至26%-27%左右。 开源证券近日发布商用车行业点评报告：据第一商用车网数据，2025年8月重卡批发销 量达到约8.7万辆，同比大增约40%，环比7月上涨2%，仅次于2020年8月的13万辆，是近八 年来同期的第二高位。全年来看。1-8月重卡销量达到约71.1万辆，同比增长约14%，行业复 苏势头明确，全年销量有望突破100万辆。 以下为研究报告摘要： 重卡销量创近八年同期次高，增速表现亮眼 国内市场强势复苏，政策催化效果凸显。据第一商用车网数据，2025年8月重卡批发销 量达到约8.7万辆，同比大增约40%，环比7月上涨2%，仅次于2020年8月的13万辆，是近八 年来同期的第二高位。全年来看。1-8月重卡销量达到约71.1万辆，同比增长约14%，行业复 苏势头明确，全年销量有望突破100万辆。分市场看，国内市场受益于以旧换新政策的催 化，终端重卡销量在行业传统淡季的8月份的同比增速约50%，体现了重卡销量受政策催化 的敏感性，充分体现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck industry is experiencing significant growth, with wholesale sales reaching approximately 87,000 units in August 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of about 40% and a month-on-month rise of 2% from July, making it the second highest figure for the same period in the past eight years [1][2]. Market Performance - The domestic market is benefiting from the "old-for-new" policy, leading to a remarkable year-on-year growth of about 50% in heavy truck sales during the traditionally slow month of August [2][3]. - Cumulatively, from January to August 2025, heavy truck sales reached approximately 711,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 14%, with expectations for annual sales to exceed 1 million units [2][3]. Segment Analysis - The demand for natural gas heavy trucks has rebounded significantly, with a month-on-month increase of over 15% and a year-on-year increase of over 30% in August, restoring the domestic penetration rate to around 26%-27% [3]. - The electric heavy truck segment is also showing strong momentum, with expected sales exceeding 16,000 units in August and a penetration rate potentially surpassing 27%, marking a historical high [3]. Company Performance - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Truck) maintained its position as the sales leader with a monthly sales figure of 22,000 units, a year-on-year increase of about 29% [4]. - FAW Jiefang (FAW Liberation) achieved monthly sales of approximately 16,500 units, up about 36% year-on-year, while Dongfeng Motor reported a monthly sales figure of about 15,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 52% [4]. - Foton Motor exhibited the largest year-on-year growth among major companies, with a monthly sales figure of about 12,600 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 175% [4]. Investment Outlook - The heavy truck industry is expected to maintain a high level of activity, with sales anticipated to continue rising from September to December, leading to significant revenue and profit growth for related companies [5]. - Beneficiary companies include China National Heavy Truck (000951.SZ), Weichai Power (000338.SZ), Foton Motor (600166.SH), FAW Jiefang (000800.SZ), Tianrun Industrial (002283.SZ), Changyuan Donggu (603950.SH), and Zhongyuan Neipei (002448.SZ) [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a target price of 8.69 CNY, compared to the current price of 7.17 CNY [5]. Core Views - The domestic heavy truck market is recovering, and the continuous growth in overseas markets is expected to enhance the profitability of the company [2]. - The company is a leading player in China's commercial vehicle sector, with a projected net profit of 523 million CNY in 2025, increasing to 2.769 billion CNY by 2027 [11]. - The company is expected to sell 250,000 vehicles in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, with a market share of 26.6% in the medium and heavy truck segment [11]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas presence, responding to the "Belt and Road" initiative, and aims to establish subsidiaries in eight countries to support its international strategy [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 64.325 billion CNY in 2023, decreasing to 58.581 billion CNY in 2024, and then gradually increasing to 68.167 billion CNY by 2027 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 806 million CNY in 2023 to 622 million CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 2.769 billion CNY in 2027 [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.16 CNY in 2023, dropping to 0.13 CNY in 2024, and then increasing to 0.56 CNY by 2027 [4]. Sales and Profitability Forecast - The average selling price of commercial vehicles is expected to remain stable from 2025 to 2027, while sales volume is projected to decline by 5% in 2025 but recover with a 10% growth in 2026 and 2027 [13]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve from 6.27% in 2024 to 9.92% by 2027, driven by cost control and increased sales [14]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong position in the natural gas heavy truck market, with a projected sales volume of 57,000 units in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [11]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company has a dominant position in the domestic heavy truck market, having maintained the top market share for nine consecutive years [11]. - The company is recognized for its strong product capabilities, with advanced manufacturing standards in its engine and transmission systems [11]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, noting that while the company faces challenges from industry competition, its vertical integration and product strength provide a competitive edge [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the heavy truck industry [1]. Core Insights - The heavy truck industry continues to exhibit high prosperity, with August 2025 sales reaching approximately 84,000 units, a 35% increase year-on-year [5]. - Environmental policies are driving the heavy truck industry, with significant support from government initiatives aimed at replacing older vehicles [5]. - The demand for natural gas and new energy heavy trucks has shown substantial growth, with new energy truck sales in August exceeding 16,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of over 160% [5]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the heavy truck sector, including China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Weichai Power, and CIMC Vehicles [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The heavy truck market in August 2025 saw a slight month-on-month decline of 1% but a significant year-on-year increase of 35% [5]. Policy Impact - The implementation of differentiated subsidies for scrapping older trucks has positively influenced the market, leading to sustained growth over five consecutive months [5]. Export Performance - Heavy truck exports are expected to grow by approximately 10% year-on-year in August 2025, exceeding expectations [5]. Company Ratings - Key companies in the industry have received "Accumulate" ratings, including: - Weichai Power: Market cap of 129.08 billion, EPS forecasted to grow from 1.31 to 1.63 from 2024 to 2026 [4]. - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group: Market cap of 21.14 billion, with EPS expected to rise from 1.26 to 1.75 [4]. - CIMC Vehicles: Market cap of 17.17 billion, with EPS projected to increase from 0.58 to 0.89 [4].