Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing significant volatility, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling below the critical 4% level for the first time in 2025, closing at 3.976% [1] - The decline in the 10-year yield is seen as a signal of economic slowdown and increased risk aversion among investors, particularly in light of recent economic data and geopolitical tensions [1] - The Federal Reserve's intention to continue lowering interest rates to support the economy has reinforced expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped below 4%, marking a significant psychological threshold that has not been breached since April 4, when it briefly fell to 3.992% [1] - The recent economic data, including a contraction in service sector activity in New York and surrounding areas, has heightened concerns about economic slowdown [1] - The rise in long-term Treasury investments is attributed to increased risk from bank loan defaults and renewed tensions between the U.S. and China [1] Group 2 - Energy prices have decreased, contributing to a downward trend in inflation, with average gasoline prices in the U.S. falling approximately 4% over the past month [2] - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, scheduled for release on October 24, which could influence the trajectory of Treasury yields [2] - The consensus among market participants is that the decline in Treasury yields is fundamentally linked to growing concerns over economic slowdown and expectations for policy easing [2]