26 年第 1 周成交涨跌互现，跨年市场稳健有利开局 [Table_Industry] 房地产 [Table_Invest] 本报告导读： 上周地产成交涨跌互现。上周政策面平静，跨年房地产成交保持稳定和震荡走势。 预计后续政策面持续保持宽松不变。 投资要点： 报 告 票 研 究 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 证 券 [Table_Summary] 上周大中城市成交涨跌互现。上周政策面平静，跨年房地产成交保 持稳定和震荡走势。预计后续政策面持续保持宽松不变，有助于 26 年市场巩固回稳态势。 上周大中城市新房成交环比继续回升：2026 年第 1 周 30 大中城市 新房成交面积为 315 万平，环比前一周 5.2%，同比 2025 年-20.6%。 其中一线城市销售面积 71 万平，环比前一周 31.0%，同比 2025 年 -24%。二线城市销售面积 198 万平，环比前一周 2.83%，同比 2025 年-15%。三线城市销售面积 47 万平，环比前一周-12.3%，同比 2024 年-34.5%。2026 年 1 月 1 日 30 城累计成交面积 9 万平，环比 2025 ...

证券研究报告｜资产配置跟踪周报 2025 年 12 月 29 日 节后行情或是关键 【20251222-20251228】 核心观点 大类资产总览：多重热点爆发，市场表现火热。 本周，权益市场表现亮眼，多重热点共振，带动市场上行。 市场量能小幅拉升，不断逼近两万亿，显示出当前市场对年 后行情的乐观预期。从市场角度来看，上证指数走出八连阳， 整体趋势向上，场内投资者信心有所提振，对于市场中长期 向上趋势的判断一定程度上对冲了节前避险情绪，促使市场 发力向上。而从消息面角度来看，人民币兑美元汇率升值， 国内市场对于海外资金吸引力更强，宏观政策可操作空间更 大，商业航空、6G、小金属、电池等多模块迎来利好消息， 多板块协同发力下，为市场上行带来增量动能。本周债市一 反常态，不再同权益市场反向表现，反而一致向上。商品市 场同样走出上行行情，贵金属持续发力，白银屡创新高，多 品类共振，带动商品市场走强。 本周 A 股观点：节后行情或是关键。 本周 A 股表现亮眼，上证指数持续上扬，结合上周行情，共 计走出八连阳，对市场情绪起到了显著的提振作用。而场内 多个热点板块集体共振，为市场上行提供了显著的增量动 能。从短期来看， ...

责任编辑：张俊 SF065 随着杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）任期即将在2026年5月结束，美联储主席候选人将面对一个意见分 裂的委员会——需在高通胀与趋冷的就业市场之间取得平衡，意味着2026年政策宽松将趋于谨慎。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 随着杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）任期即将在2026年5月结束，美联储主席候选人将面对一个意见分 裂的委员会——需在高通胀与趋冷的就业市场之间取得平衡，意味着2026年政策宽松将趋于谨慎。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 ...

12月15日，国家统计局公布11月份国民经济数据，预计全年实现5%的GDP增长目标几乎没有悬念。 日前，高盛、德意志银行等外资投行一致地上调了对中国GDP增速的预测，并预计2026年中国出口仍将实现5%—6%的稳健增长，房地产对GDP增长的负面影响减 弱，未来政策宽松力度或将加大。 不过分歧在于，政策宽松的方式和力度预测不同。高盛预计2026年央行将降息20个基点，并预计财政赤字与GDP之比将有所提升；瑞银预测央行将降息20个基点、 降准25个—50个基点，或将带动LPR和房贷利率进一步下调；德银更早的观点认为央行进一步降息的可能性较小，2026年财政赤字率维持在GDP的8.5%，特别国债 额度增至1.5万亿元。 出口增长超预期，外资上调中国GDP预测 12月15日，国家统计局公布11月份国民经济数据，前11个月全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6%；服务业生产指数同比增长5.6%；社会消费品零售总额同比增长 4%；货物进出口总额同比增长3.6%，其中出口增长6.2%。 上一次国民经济数据出炉之后，高盛中国首席经济学家闪辉就认为，出口增长是2025年最大的超预期指标，我国全年实现5%的增长目标基本无虞。而考虑到中 ...

Economic Growth Outlook - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's GDP growth target of 5% for the year is almost certain to be achieved, supported by strong economic indicators [1][3] - Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have raised their GDP growth forecasts for China, predicting a steady export growth of 5%-6% through 2026, with a diminishing negative impact from the real estate sector on GDP growth [2][3] Export Performance - In the first eleven months, the total value of goods imports and exports increased by 3.6%, with exports growing by 6.2%, exceeding expectations [3] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the growth in China's export volume will continue to rise by 5%-6% annually in the coming years, driven by an expanding global market share [3] Real Estate Sector Impact - The real estate market, while still weak, is expected to have a reduced direct negative impact on GDP growth, with the drag decreasing by approximately 0.5 percentage points annually in the coming years [3][4] - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to reduce excess inventory in the real estate sector, which is seen as a necessary step for economic recovery [4][6] Policy Measures - The central economic work conference outlined key strategies for economic work in the coming year, focusing on increasing household income and promoting service consumption to boost domestic demand [6] - Deutsche Bank forecasts that the fiscal deficit rate will remain around 8.5% of GDP in 2026, with special government bond issuance increasing to 1.5 trillion yuan [6][7] Monetary Policy Expectations - There is a consensus among various investment banks that the fiscal deficit rate will stabilize around 4% of GDP, although opinions differ on the likelihood and extent of interest rate cuts [7] - Goldman Sachs predicts a 20 basis point interest rate cut, while UBS expects a combination of rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support economic growth [7] Currency Outlook - The strong export performance and a current account surplus of $600 billion (2.8% of GDP) are expected to accelerate the internationalization of the renminbi [8] - Deutsche Bank projects that the renminbi will appreciate against the US dollar, reaching 6.7 by the end of 2026 and further strengthening to 6.5 by the end of 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The industry rating has been upgraded from "Neutral" to "Outperform" [1][13] Core Insights - The recovery of the Hong Kong real estate market is expected to be a gradual process, with different asset sub-sectors recovering at different rates. The residential sector is anticipated to lead the recovery, followed by quality retail assets and core office spaces [1][8] - Key catalysts for the market recovery include improvements in macroeconomic uncertainty, significant policy easing, and a return of fundamental demand drivers such as demographic trends [5][21] - The report highlights that the residential sector is poised for a rebound, with rental levels expected to rise by approximately 3-5% in 2025, and property prices projected to increase by 3-5% in 2025, 5% in 2026, and 5% in 2027 [5][12] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting the right sub-sector in the Hong Kong real estate market, indicating that the recovery will not be a single event but a phased process targeting different segments [8][20] - The report identifies Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) and Link REIT (823 HK) as preferred investment targets, expecting both to benefit from the sector's recovery and multiple catalysts in the next 1-2 years [1][13] Market Trends and Drivers - The report notes that the Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a turning point, with several important catalysts indicating that the market is at or near a reversal point [5][20] - The residential sector is expected to see a significant rebound driven by sustained population inflow, which will continue to support housing demand, particularly in the rental market [5][21] - Retail properties are also on a recovery path, supported by stabilizing local consumer sentiment and an increase in inbound tourists, although the growth rate is expected to be more moderate compared to residential properties [5][12] Valuation Overview - The report discusses the potential for asset net value (NAV) expansion and valuation multiple expansion as key drivers for stock price appreciation in the real estate sector [12][11] - The anticipated recovery in rental income and asset prices will directly impact companies' NAV estimates, providing a solid foundation for stock price increases [12][11] Company-Specific Insights - Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) is highlighted as a key beneficiary of the residential recovery, with expectations of improved sales performance and profit margins due to high absorption rates and rising average selling prices [14][15] - Link REIT (823 HK) is positioned as a defensive, high-yield investment choice, expected to benefit from potential interest rate cuts and inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which could attract new capital inflows [16][17]

亚洲市场预计将迎来积极开局，主要受美联储潜在降息预期改善的乐观情绪提振，此前标普500指数上 周五收高近1%。日本市场今日因劳动感恩节假期休市一日。"预计亚洲市场将高开，"AT Global Markets 首席市场分析师尼克·特威代尔表示，"但考虑到上周的市场波动，以及未来几天可能出现更大波动，投 资者对盲目追涨持谨慎态度可以理解。"被视为美联储主席鲍威尔亲密盟友的威廉姆斯上周五表示，近 期存在政策宽松空间，因就业下行风险增加而通胀上行风险缓解，美国国债上周五随之上涨。尽管交易 员加大了对12月降息的押注，但官员们对是否降息仍存分歧，波士顿联储主席柯林斯表示尚未对政策行 动做出决定。 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility, opening down 2% but rebounding to form a V-shaped recovery before a late-day pullback due to news from Trump regarding U.S.-China trade [3][5] - The S&P 500 index ultimately fell by 0.2%, while the Nasdaq dropped 0.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.4% [3] Sector Performance - The banking sector emerged as the biggest winner, rising by 1.9%, followed by the insurance sector with a 1.6% increase [3] - In contrast, the previously favored large technology sector collectively declined by 1.1%, negatively impacting the Nasdaq [3] - The Russell 2000 index saw significant gains, indicating a shift in risk preference towards small-cap stocks, highlighting a "value stocks + small caps strong, large tech weak" market dynamic [5] Policy Signals - Jerome Powell's recent statements indicated a likely halt to the balance sheet reduction in the coming months, signaling a shift towards a more accommodative policy environment [9][11] - Powell also suggested a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, continuing the dovish trend established in previous months [11] Consumer Health Insights - JPMorgan's earnings report revealed strong consumer spending and stable early credit delinquency rates, contradicting fears of consumer weakness [13][15] - The labor market remains robust, characterized by low hiring and low layoffs, with wage growth between 3% and 4%, supporting ongoing consumer spending [15] AI Investment Trends - JPMorgan plans to invest $1.3 trillion over the next decade in AI infrastructure, shifting focus from large tech companies to traditional firms and infrastructure companies [17] - This transition indicates a growing opportunity in the AI infrastructure space for investors [17] Market Sentiment and VIX Index - The VIX index rose by 9.4% to 20.81, providing insights for market operations; historically, a VIX level near or above 22.4 has led to subsequent pullbacks in the index [18][20] - Current VIX levels below 21 suggest a suitable entry point for cash-rich investors to gradually accumulate positions [20] Investment Strategy - The prevailing market logic is characterized by "policy easing + stable fundamentals + emotional recovery," suggesting a strategy of gradual accumulation focused on value [22] - The banking sector is highlighted as a key area of interest, with recommendations to consider bank ETFs for risk diversification [24] - The consumer sector remains resilient, but caution is advised regarding inflation risks, with a preference for stable, reasonably valued stocks [25]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **螺纹**: Not clearly indicated in the given rating description [1] - **热卷**: Not clearly indicated in the given rating description [1] - **铁矿**: ☆☆☆, representing a relatively clear long - term trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **焦炭**: ☆☆☆, representing a relatively clear long - term trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **焦煤**: ☆☆☆, representing a relatively clear long - term trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **锰硅**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **硅铁**: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the given rating rules, but presumably implies a certain bullish tendency [1] Report's Core View - The overall situation of the steel and related raw material market is complex, with prices mostly in a volatile state. Demand expectations are generally pessimistic, but policy easing provides some support. Each variety has its own supply - demand characteristics and price trends, and market participants need to pay attention to factors such as environmental restrictions, production changes, and macro - level events [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures market showed a slight rebound in volatility. This week, the apparent demand for rebar decreased slightly, production declined simultaneously, and inventory continued to fall. The demand for hot - rolled coils stabilized, production continued to decline, and the inventory accumulation pace slowed down. Iron - making water production increased, but downstream acceptance capacity was insufficient. With the decline in steel mill profits, there is still downward pressure in the later stage. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain remains to be alleviated. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan and other places. From the October data, the decline in real estate investment continued to expand, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to decline, and overall domestic demand remained weak. Steel exports declined from their high levels. Demand expectations are still pessimistic, but policy easing still provides some support to the futures market. In the short term, it may continue the volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to market trends and marginal changes in demand [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures market was volatile, and the basis was relatively high recently. On the supply side, global shipments were slightly stronger than the same period last year. The Simandou iron ore mine was officially put into production, but the short - term production capacity that could be released was limited. The domestic arrival volume was at a high level for the same period, and port inventory continued to increase. There was some structural movement in Australian ore inventory. On the demand side, steel demand declined in the off - season, the loss situation of steel mills intensified, and although iron - making water production rebounded this week, there was still room for production cuts in the future. At the macro level, several important events had been implemented, and the short - term impact on the futures market weakened. The market began to trade the reality of a marginally looser iron ore market, and it is expected that the iron ore price will mainly fluctuate [3] Coke - The intraday coke price was volatile. The fourth round of coking price adjustments was fully implemented this week. Coking profits were still average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory decreased slightly. Currently, downstream buyers made small - scale purchases as needed, and inventory decreased slightly. Traders' purchasing willingness was average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant. Downstream iron - making water production returned to a high - level range, and the demand for raw materials remained resilient. However, the profit level of steel was average, and there was strong pressure to lower raw material prices. The coke futures price was at a premium, and the price may mainly fluctuate [4] Coking Coal - The intraday coking coal price was volatile. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly. The spot auction transactions were normal, and the transaction prices fluctuated. Terminal inventory increased slightly. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly compared with the previous period, and the production - end inventory increased slightly. Safety inspections were carried out in major coal - producing areas, and attention should be paid to the relevant impacts. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant. Downstream iron - making water production returned to a high - level range, and the demand for raw materials remained resilient. However, the profit level of steel was average, and there was strong pressure to lower raw material prices. The coke futures price was at a premium, and the coking coal futures price was at a discount to Mongolian coal. The market had certain expectations for the safety production assessment in major coking coal - producing areas, and the price may mainly fluctuate [6] Silicon Manganese - The intraday silicon manganese price was volatile. A large steel mill in the north set the tender price at 5,820 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period. On the demand side, iron - making water production rebounded to a high - level range. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, but the production was still at a high level, and silicon manganese inventory increased slowly. The forward quotation of Comilog manganese ore increased slightly compared with the previous period. The price of spot manganese ore changed quickly with the fluctuations of the futures market and increased this week [7] Silicon Iron - The intraday silicon iron price was volatile. A large steel mill in the north set the tender price at 5,680 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period. On the demand side, iron - making water production rebounded to a high - level range. Export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased compared with the previous period, and the secondary demand increased marginally. Overall, demand remained resilient. Silicon iron supply remained at a high level, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decline. The increase in electricity costs and the price of blue charcoal led to a certain sentiment of a bottom - bouncing rebound in silicon iron, and it is judged that the price is more likely to rise than to fall [8]

Core Viewpoint - Gold (XAU/USD) is experiencing bearish pressure, reaching its lowest level since early October, influenced by cautious remarks from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell regarding policy easing and a de-escalation in the US-China trade conflict [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold started the week with a significant loss of over 3% on Monday due to optimism surrounding a potential US-China trade truce, which diminished its appeal as a safe haven asset [2]. - Following a high-level meeting, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that China is prepared to make a trade deal to avoid new tariffs, contributing to the bearish sentiment in gold [3]. - As President Trump signed trade agreements with multiple nations during his Asia tour, gold prices fell below $3,900, marking a continued decline [4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% during the October meeting, as expected, and announced the conclusion of the balance sheet drawdown on December 1 [5]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that another rate cut in December is not guaranteed, emphasizing the need to manage persistent inflation risks, which led to an increase in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield above 4% and strengthened the US Dollar, further pressuring gold prices [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Gold saw a rebound on Thursday due to a negative shift in risk sentiment, recovering above $4,000 before entering a consolidation phase on Friday [7]. - Investors are awaiting upcoming US macroeconomic data releases that could provide insights into labor market conditions and the overall economic situation, especially given the impact of the ongoing government shutdown [8].