◇ 作者：西南财经大学中国金融研究院 王昆 ◇ 本文原载《债券》2025年9月刊 摘 要 近期，中国人民银行宣布将"发展自贸离岸债"作为八项金融开放举措之一，这意味着自贸离岸债重启发 行。本文回顾了自贸离岸债的发展过程，分析了重启自贸离岸债发行给商业银行带来的机遇与挑战，并 从明确业务定位、丰富参与形式、提升服务能力及加强风险管控等方面对商业银行参与相关业务提出建 议。 关键词 自贸离岸债 商业银行 应对措施 （二）自贸离岸债的双重属性 与其他债券相比，自贸离岸债最显著特征是"境内关外"，即发行地在物理空间上属于中国境内（自贸 区），但在发行规则等方面又具备典型的境外债券特征。可以说，自贸离岸债最大的特点是兼具离岸和 在岸双重属性。 一方面，自贸离岸债具备典型的离岸债券属性。从发行规则来看，与境外债券类似，自贸离岸债发行遵 循国际通行的S条例（Reg S，即《在美国境外发行和销售离岸证券免于按照1933年证券法注册的规 2025年6月，中国人民银行（以下简称"央行"）宣布八项重磅金融开放举措，其中一项为"发展自贸离岸 债"，这被市场解读为在停滞一年多后，相关业务将重启。 上海自贸区离岸债券（以下简称"自贸离岸 ...

阿根廷正面临严重的货币危机，政府为捍卫比索汇率的努力正在加剧该国的现金短缺问题，推升短期利 率飙升至87%的历史高位，并对本已脆弱的经济造成进一步冲击。 周三（10月8日），阿根廷11月28日到期的本地政府Lecap债券收益率从周二的74%暴涨至87%，较上周 末的51%大幅上升。据两名知情人士透露，财政部连续第七个交易日在市场抛售美元，至少消耗了3.2 亿美元。 阿根廷总统米莱（Javier Milei）的政府近期在多个战线同时出击以避免比索贬值，包括重新实施部分外 汇管制措施并在期货市场抛售美元。然而，政府为支撑比索所做的努力越多，当前汇率水平的不可持续 性就越发明显。 这场货币危机的直接影响正在债券市场显现。据布宜诺斯艾利斯Adcap Asset Management首席投资官 Paula Gandara表示，美元抛售和选举担忧加剧了债市波动性，2035年到期债券在政府持续向汇市注入美 元后下跌超过1美分。 政府多线作战稳汇率 然而，政府为支撑比索所做的努力越多，当前汇率水平的不可持续性就越发明显。 央行上月消耗11亿美元储备支撑货币后，最近一直依赖财政部资金维持汇率稳定。过去七个交易日，财 政部美元抛 ...

1. 公开市场操作 央行9月30日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2422亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量2422亿元，中标量2422亿元。Wind数据显示，当日 2761亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼339亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 9月最后一个交易日，银行间市场周二流动性整体平稳，存款类机构隔夜回购利率因可跨季走升逾7bp，但仍在1.4%下方，对于季末时点来说属于惬意水 平；匿名点击（X-repo）系统上，隔夜报价也小升至1.35%附近。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为4.16%。 （IMM） // 债市综述 // （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单二级市场上最新成交在1.675%附近。 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 全线下跌 | （*数据来源：Wind-成交统计BMW） | | --- | 5. 近期城投债（AAA）各期限利差走势及数据 （*数据来源：Wind-利差分析） 6. 国债期货收盘全线上涨 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 30年期主力合约涨0 ...

Meanwhile, the Fed minutes out today reflecting division little bit over the direction of rates. A slim majority of Fed governors expecting two more cuts this year, but the central bank overall currently dealing with a darth of data. Darth >> Darth Darth >> Darth Vader.>> Darth thanks to the government shutdown. >> I mean, seriously, >> the September jobs report. >> Darth of I mean >> don't give me Don't give me the daggers.>> It's Darth. Yes, it is. >> That's it.Darth is from the movie. >> Is he Lwig or wh ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market experienced significant adjustments in September, influenced by strong stock market performance and institutional behaviors, particularly in long-term government bonds and capital bonds [1][2] - The bond market's performance diverged from the funding and economic fundamentals due to several factors, including a notable rise in the stock market, particularly in technology stocks, leading to expectations of economic recovery [1][2] - Institutional funds, such as pension funds, shifted significantly from the bond market to the stock market, exacerbated by regulatory impacts on public funds [1][2] Group 2 - The report highlights that the bond market's balance increased by 15.3 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, with government bonds contributing 10.3 trillion yuan and financial bonds 2.7 trillion yuan [1][4] - Bank self-operated bond investments surged, with an increase of 11.4 trillion yuan, surpassing the total for the previous year, indicating a strong shift towards bond investments amid low credit demand [1][4] - The report notes that the overall bond investment balance of major banks increased by 21.4% year-on-year, while small and medium-sized banks also saw a significant increase of 17.8% [1][4] Group 3 - The report suggests that conditions for further policy interest rate cuts may be emerging, with the central bank indicating a balanced approach to monetary policy aimed at supporting the real economy while managing risks [1][2] - Recent economic data shows a decline in investment, consumption, and export growth rates, suggesting increasing downward pressure on the economy [1][6] - The report anticipates that the bond market's configuration value is prominent, with potential stabilization and a downward trend in bond yields, particularly for 10-year government bonds [1][2]

尽管银行监管更加严格、资本缓冲更加充足，但 市场观察人士仍对企业债务市场发出警告 。美国投资级企业债券的风险溢价本月早些时候触及27年来最低水 平，目前仍徘徊在接近该水平附近。 虽然分析师普遍认为不会重演2007-2009年全球金融危机的灾难性后果，但历史的相似性仍值得警惕。正如Thornburg Investment Management投资组合经理 Christian Hoffmann所言： "当你将资产定价至完美时，任何不完美都可能引发修正。" 值得注意的是， 经济放缓的早期迹象正在显现 。美国8月失业率升至2021年来最高水平，就业增长明显放缓，周五报告显示美国9月消费者信心降至四个月低 点。 随着估值高企的金融市场面临经济放缓冲击，投资者可能迎来颠簸行情。 泡沫信号频现 9月28日，据报道，从Electronic Arts Inc.潜在的500亿美元收购，到汽车贷款违约率攀升，再到私人信贷市场的快速扩张，当前金融市场呈现出 与2007年金融 危机前相似的泡沫迹象。 当前市场呈现出多重泡沫迹象，与2007年金融危机前相似。 大规模杠杆收购交易再度活跃，华尔街银行正准备安排超过200亿美元的并购债务融资 ...

CreditSights表示，本月初投资者向美国市政债券基金投入的现金达到至少2007年以来的最高水平。 CreditSights的数据显示，截至9月10日当周，市政债券共同基金吸引了约24亿美元的资金，创下137周以 来的最高水平;而交易所交易基金(ETF)则录得20亿美元的资金流入，为四周以来的最高水平。根据美国 投资公司协会(ICI)的数据，同一周投资者从美国股票基金中撤出了约200亿美元。 受美联储重启降息的预期推动，投资者追逐美国州和地方政府债券的涨势，并且随着股价上涨至历史最 高水平，他们重新平衡了投资组合。 CreditSights高级市政策略师Patrick Luby表示："在我看来，这表明资产配置正在发生调整。我认为并没 有太多新的资金自发流入共同基金。" 标普500指数已创下历史新高，科技股因利率下调而上涨。通常情况下，降息会刺激消费者支出并提高 企业利润。 美国市政债券在9月强势上涨 9月份市政债券回报率为2.6%，超过了美国投资级债券和美国国债。而今年大部分时间里，市政债券的 表现都逊于这两类资产。创纪录的州和地方政府债券发行，以及美国总统唐纳德.特朗普税收和支出法 案中免税债券的状况 ...

Group 1 - The auction of 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds showed robust demand, with the direct bidder allocation ratio reaching a historical high and the allocation to primary dealers at one of the lowest levels in history [1] - The awarded yield for the 20-year bonds was 4.613%, significantly lower than the previous month, marking the lowest since October 2024 [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.74, higher than in July and the second highest since March, indicating strong actual demand [1] Group 2 - The average fixed-rate mortgage loan rate for 30-year terms dropped significantly by 12 basis points to 6.13%, the lowest since the end of 2022 [1] - Historical trends suggest that in a recessionary environment, rate cuts may lower long-term yields, while in a non-recessionary environment, the impact on long-term rates may be minimal [1] - There is a possibility that the market may react by "buying the rumor, selling the fact," leading to a slight sell-off of 10-year Treasuries after the Federal Reserve announces a rate cut [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the Chinese credit market and its implications for the economy, particularly in relation to the banking sector and real estate market [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Declining Credit Demand**: China's credit demand has shifted from insufficient supply to low demand, with new loans expected to be less than 17 trillion yuan in 2025, down from 23 trillion yuan in 2022, indicating a decline in both credit growth and volume, posing challenges to economic growth [1][3]. - **Weak Personal Loans**: In August, personal loans increased by only 30.3 billion yuan, reflecting a continued downturn in the real estate market, with second-hand home prices in Beijing dropping nearly 10% over the past quarter [1][5]. - **Manufacturing Sector Struggles**: The manufacturing industry faces overcapacity, leading to weak credit demand from enterprises. The gap between corporate deposits and loans has widened to over 60 trillion yuan, indicating that state-owned enterprises are borrowing heavily while market-oriented firms show insufficient financing needs [1][6]. - **Banking Sector Manipulations**: Banks are manipulating credit data through bill discounting and short-term loans to meet scale assessments, but these measures do not fundamentally address the underlying issue of weak credit demand [1][7]. - **Deleveraging Trends**: There is a clear trend of households actively deleveraging, with increased savings and reduced borrowing. The ratio of personal loans to deposits has significantly decreased, indicating low consumer willingness to spend [1][8][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Future Loan Projections**: The anticipated decline in new loans and social financing growth rates, projected to fall from 9.0% to around 8.0% by year-end, reflects weak investment demand and ongoing challenges in the real estate and manufacturing sectors [3][10]. - **Investment Outlook**: The outlook for long-term bonds remains positive, with a target yield of around 1.75% for ten-year government bonds, suggesting potential value for investors [3][12][18]. - **Market Sentiment**: Institutional attitudes towards ultra-long credit bonds are cautious, with a noted decline in net purchases by insurance and wealth management sectors, although there is still a strategy to accumulate on dips [17][19]. - **Economic Predictions**: The overall trend for the bond market in 2025 is expected to be volatile, with no clear directional movement, necessitating a careful approach to investment strategies [20][21]. Conclusion - The records highlight significant challenges in the Chinese credit market, with declining demand impacting both personal and corporate borrowing. The banking sector's response through data manipulation and the ongoing trend of deleveraging among households are critical factors to monitor. The investment outlook for bonds remains cautiously optimistic, with specific strategies recommended for conservative investors.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks stemming from the U.S. non-farm employment data and critiques the Federal Reserve's monetary policy as a root cause of high inflation, wealth disparity, and uncontrollable debt risks, suggesting a need for a policy framework adjustment [1][2]. Group 1: Critique of the Federal Reserve - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra criticizes the Federal Reserve for serving political demands, which he believes undermines its independence and credibility [2][4]. - Becerra emphasizes the need for the Federal Reserve to return to its three statutory missions: maximizing employment, stabilizing prices, and maintaining moderate long-term interest rates, highlighting the importance of the third mission [5]. Group 2: Long-term Interest Rates - Becerra's focus on long-term interest rates, particularly U.S. Treasury yields, is crucial as he aims to ensure economic responsibility amid rising debt levels [6]. - The current high-interest environment poses challenges for funding government spending, with 15% of annual U.S. fiscal expenditures allocated to interest payments, which has increased significantly since the onset of the rate hike cycle in 2022 [8]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Risks - Recent non-farm employment data indicates a significant drop in job creation, with actual figures at 22,000 compared to an expected 75,000, raising concerns about a potential economic recession [8][10]. - The upcoming revision of non-farm employment data is expected to show a downward adjustment of 800,000 jobs, suggesting that the U.S. economy is on the brink of collapse [10]. Group 4: Potential Policy Actions - Becerra expresses urgency for lowering long-term interest rates, as the transmission of Federal Reserve rate cuts primarily affects short-term yields, while long-term rates are influenced by market dynamics and perceptions of U.S. debt stability [11]. - The article discusses the potential for the Federal Reserve to adopt yield curve control strategies similar to Japan's, which could alleviate interest pressure on government debt but may lead to market distortions and reduced foreign investment [13]. Group 5: Global Implications - The article warns that any new round of fiscal expansion in the U.S. could exacerbate debt risks and undermine market trust, potentially leading to a global debt crisis [15]. - The current economic environment in the U.S. differs from Japan's past experience, as the U.S. faces inflation rather than deflation, indicating that high inflation could precede a debt crisis [15].