证 券 研 究 报 告 收益率多上行但利差分化，5年以内普信相对抗跌 信用债市场周度跟踪（2026.2.23-2026.3.1） 证券分析师：黄伟平 A0230524110002 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 张晋源 A0230525040001 研究支持： 曹璇 A0230125070001 2026.3.1 主要内容 注：受春节假期影响，本期为2026.02.23-2026.03.01，上期为2026.02.09-2026.02.15 ，收益率和各类利差变动为2.27相对2.14的变动值。 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 一级市场：本期普通信用债净供给环比下降，二永债无新发行与到期。本期（2026.02.23-2026.03.01）普通信用债合计发行/净融资952亿元/-892亿元，上期 （2026.02.09-2026.02.15）分别为1390亿元/363亿元。其中，产业债发行环比下降至503亿元，净融资环比转负至-294亿元；城投债发行环比下降至449亿元，净融 资环比转负至-598亿元。本期银行二永债无发行/到期，上期（2026.02.09-2026.02.1 ...

特朗普沾沾自喜时，全球风向彻底变了！ 美债正遭到多国集体抛售，美国金融局面已经岌岌可危，新的接盘者已经出现。 美国把美元武器化、肆意透支信用，最终自食恶果。 这对美国来说是巨大危机，对中国来说却是战略主动。 今年1月的数据摆在桌上时，华尔街的分析师们大概松了口气，美债海外总持仓量冲到了9.4万亿美元，历史新高。 数字漂亮得像一份完美的体检报告，但稍微拆开看看，这份报告的内脏早就烂透了。 日本加仓到1.2万亿，英国逼近8880亿，挪威、加拿大也在往里填钱。 与此同时，中国的持仓跌到了6820亿，这个数字得追溯到2009年才能找到同类项。 连续第九个月减持，北京的态度已经不需要任何外交辞令来解读。 同一张资产负债表，资金却在做截然相反的运动。西方盟友拼命往池子里注水，南方国家却在悄悄拔掉塞子。 而中国，绝不会再为美国兜底。 曾经靠着美元霸权四处举债的日子一去不返。 2022年，俄乌冲突爆发后的第一周，美国和欧洲联手把俄罗斯踢出了SWIFT系统。 这还不算完，俄罗斯央行存放在西方的约3000亿美元外汇储备，一夜之间被冻结。 这一刀砍下去，砍的不只是莫斯科的钱袋子，砍的是整个国际金融体系的底层逻辑。 过去几十年，各国 ...

美国国债收益率在美国总统日假期后变动不大。纽约联邦储备 银行的帝国州制造业调查显示，2月份商 业状况指数从1月份的7.7小幅降至7.1，而经济学家平均预期为10。12月份房屋开工数据将于明日公布。 周四公布的首次申请失业救济人数预计将从227,000人降至220,000人。周五将公布12月份个人消费支出 价格指数，其同比增幅预计将与11月份持平，为2.8%。根据芝商所的数据，市场预计美联储3月份维持 利率不变的可能性为90%。10年期国债收益率报4.037%，低于周五的4.055%。2年期国债收益率从 3.409%小幅升至3.416%。 ...

中国外汇管理机构在2026年初下发指导意见，让银行根据市场波动调整资产配置，逐步降低美国国债比 例。这不是突然之举，早从2013年峰值1.3万亿美元开始，中国就持续减持，到现在只剩6826亿美元， 创下2008年9月以来最低。 减持的钱转向黄金储备和关键物资采购，分散风险。银行操作时避免大动作，通过到期不续和小额交易 保持平稳。美债市场闻风而动，价格小幅下滑，收益率上扬，美元指数短期承压。 美国债务规模已超38万亿美元，年利息支出1.2万亿美元，比军费还高。信用评级遭穆迪和惠誉下调， 美联储政策摇摆不定，政治分歧让债券波动加剧。2025年，美债多次单日大跌。中国还通过与印尼、阿 根廷等国合作，提供美元贷款帮他们还债，这些国家转而用人民币结算贸易，逐步还款。这样，中国间 接减持美债，还推动人民币在跨境使用。 全球美债持有者中，前八大有四家跟着减持，印度和沙特2025年下半年分别卖了200亿和150亿。非传统 渠道如亚投行融资，也帮中国调整仓位。减持资金大部买黄金，2026年1月末储备增至7419万盎司，连 续15个月增长。上海黄金交易所活跃，进口超1200吨。2022年俄罗斯资产冻结后，中国加速多元化，美 债占 ...

Key Points - The report indicates that there is still potential for credit spread compression, particularly in the context of different bond types and their excess spreads compared to similar maturity and rating bonds [1][3][35] - As of January 30, 2026, the excess spreads for 3Y AAA-rated bank subordinated bonds, perpetual bonds, and industrial bonds are 6.1BP, 6.6BP, and 11.0BP, respectively, which are at the 92%, 79%, and 44% percentiles since early 2025 [1][3][35] - The report suggests that the selection of bonds based on value for money ranks as follows: bank subordinated bonds > perpetual bonds > urban investment bonds > industrial bonds [1][35] Credit Strategy Review for January 2026 - The yield of bank subordinated bonds has significantly decreased, and the excess spreads remain high, indicating potential for further compression [3][6] - The report notes that the 3Y AA+ urban investment bond yield decreased by 9BP, with the yield at the end of January 2026 being 1.91% [11] - Factors contributing to the decline in credit bond yields include limited corporate financing demand, stable credit issuance, and a loose funding environment [11][14] Performance of Different Credit Strategies - In January 2026, the performance of various credit strategies ranked as follows: duration extension > barbell strategy > 3Y bullet strategy > short-end sinking [15] - The returns for the duration extension strategy for urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, bank subordinated bonds, and perpetual bonds were 0.65%, 0.85%, 0.76%, and 0.82%, respectively [15][18] - The report highlights that the short-end sinking strategy yielded returns of 0.16%-0.19% across different bond types, although its performance was generally average [17][18] Outlook for February 2026 - The report anticipates that the overall funding environment will remain tight, with a weak recovery in the fundamentals [35] - It is expected that the central bank's operations will lead to a decrease in funding rates, potentially resulting in a further decline in long-term bond yields by 5-10BP in Q1 2026 [35] - The report emphasizes that the credit spread compression trend is likely to continue, with a focus on the performance of various bond types [35]

2025年1—6月新发放企业贷款加权平均利率约为3.3% 据邹澜介绍，社会综合融资成本低位下行。今年1—6月新发放企业贷款加权平均利率约为3.3%，比去 年同期低约45个基点；新发放个人住房贷款利率约3.1%，比上年同期低约60个基点。 继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏 邹澜称，从经济理论和实践经验看，货币政策的传导是需要时间的，已经实施的货币政策的效果还会进 一步显现。下阶段，人民银行将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，密切关注评估前期已实施政策的传导 情况和实际效果，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度和节奏，更好 地推动扩大国内需求、稳定社会预期、激发市场活力，支持实现全年经济社会发展目标和任务。 （原标题：中国人民银行副行长邹澜：继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策） 7月14日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会。中国人民银行副行长邹澜介绍2025年上半年货币信贷政 策执行及金融统计数据情况，并答记者问。 同期公布的央行数据显示，2025年上半年社会融资规模增量累计为22.83万亿元，比上年同期多4.74万亿 元。上半年人民币贷款增加12.92万亿元，人民币存款增加 ...

Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 315 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a total bid and awarded amount of 315 billion yuan. Additionally, a 3000 billion yuan 14-day reverse repurchase operation was carried out, indicating a total of 6000 billion yuan in reverse repos over two days to support liquidity during the Spring Festival [1][3] - The interbank market showed a more relaxed liquidity environment, with the weighted average rate of DR001 dropping over 4 basis points to around 1.27%. Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system fell to 1.25%, indicating ample supply [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 3.65% [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market was around 1.590% [7] Bond Market - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, reflecting a downward trend in bond prices [9] - The closing prices for government bond futures showed slight increases, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.42%, the 10-year by 0.08%, the 5-year by 0.03%, and the 2-year by 0.02% [14] Global Macro - The European Central Bank maintained its benchmark interest rate, marking the fifth consecutive pause since June of the previous year. However, no clear signals regarding future policy direction were provided, leading to expectations of stable monetary policy in the near term [14]

Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repo operation with a fixed interest rate of 1.40% on February 4, with a net withdrawal of 3025 billion yuan for the day due to 3775 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [3][4]. Funding Conditions - The interbank market has returned to a stable and loose state, with the weighted average interest rate of D R001 slightly rising to around 1.32%. Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system remained at 1.3%, with a significant increase in supply compared to the previous day [5]. - The latest overnight financing guarantee rate in the U.S. is 3.69% [6]. - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is stable at 1.60% [7]. Bond Market - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a decline: the 30-year main contract fell by 0.23%, the 10-year by 0.01%, the 5-year by 0.04%, and the 2-year by 0.02% [13]. Key News - The State Council held a press conference discussing the modernization of agriculture and rural areas, emphasizing four key tasks for this year, including enhancing agricultural production capacity and quality, and promoting stable income growth for farmers [15]. - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for quality financial services in key strategic areas and sectors, aiming to support domestic demand and technological innovation [15]. - Hong Kong is developing into an international bond issuance hub, with plans for an electronic trading platform to enhance market liquidity [16]. Bond Events - The National Development Bank plans to issue up to 330 billion yuan in financial bonds on February 5 [20]. - A series of negative events related to bond issuers were reported, including rating downgrades for several companies [21]. Non-standard Asset Risks - Several non-standard assets have been flagged for risks, including investment plans and private equity funds facing potential defaults [22].

Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 9.9 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 9.9 billion yuan for the day [1] - The interbank market remains stable with a slight increase in the weighted average rate of DR001, hovering around 1.27% [3] - The latest one-year interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) traded at approximately 1.62%, down 1 basis point from the previous day [5] - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market saw a general decline in yields [7] - The main contracts for government bonds showed positive performance, with the 30-year contract up by 0.37%, the 10-year contract up by 0.15%, and the 5-year contract up by 0.09% [9] Key News - The Ministry of Commerce emphasized the commitment to high-level opening-up, highlighting Hainan Free Trade Port as a significant initiative for building an open economy [10] - A meeting by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology addressed the rapid development of the power and energy storage battery industry, noting issues like irrational competition and the need for regulatory measures [10] - The Guizhou provincial government issued policies to support high-quality development in county-level development zones, focusing on infrastructure projects [10] Global Macro - U.S. President Trump indicated that U.S. oversight of Venezuela may last for years, with plans for Venezuela to use oil sales to purchase U.S. goods [12] - The Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia stated that the likelihood of a rate cut is "very low" [12] - The global bond market saw a record issuance of $260 billion at the start of 2026 [13] - Gold may have surpassed U.S. Treasuries as the world's top reserve asset for the first time in 30 years [13]

Group 1 - The article discusses the completion of a full fiscal, monetary, and economic cycle in the U.S. since 2020, questioning whether the stock market will thrive in the new cycle starting in 2026 [1] - The U.S. economy's growth over the past few years has been driven by debt expansion and increased productivity due to AI, but the efficiency of debt-driven growth appears to be declining [6] - By 2025, the U.S. national debt is projected to reach approximately $32 trillion, with a macro debt ratio of 257%, indicating a structural increase compared to pre-pandemic levels [1][6] Group 2 - In 2026, the Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a "fiscalized" approach, releasing short-term liquidity to address tightening conditions in the banking system [7] - The U.S. Treasury is projected to issue around $2 trillion in net debt in 2026, corresponding to a fiscal deficit of approximately $2 trillion and a need for liquidity support from the Federal Reserve [9] - The long-term bond market is expected to remain under pressure with rates above 4%, while short-term debt instruments may become more attractive due to favorable rates [11][14] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve may continue to lower interest rates and implement "small-scale quantitative easing" to support the financing needs of the Treasury, particularly in light of the "Beautiful America" plan [14][15] - The economic growth in 2026 is anticipated to be driven by a combination of government debt and private sector AI investment, leading to a scenario of a depreciating dollar and inflationary pressures [15]