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迎驾贡酒(603198):Q2需求承压,主动调整良性发展
Guotou Securities· 2025-09-16 05:20
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company with a target price of 53.51 CNY for the next six months [4][7]. Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 3.16 billion CNY, down 16.89% year-on-year, and net profit at 1.13 billion CNY, down 18.19% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is actively adjusting its sales strategies and optimizing its channel structure to cope with the current market challenges, including leveraging digital marketing and enhancing its IP influence [2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.11 billion CNY, a decrease of 23.82% year-on-year, and a net profit of 302 million CNY, down 35.19% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 68.33%, a decrease of 2.82 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 27.10%, down 4.78 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth rates of -14.0%, 6.2%, and 8.4% from 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of -17.6%, 7.1%, and 9.1% respectively [4][11]. Product and Channel Analysis - In Q2 2025, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 817 million CNY, down 23.57% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 210 million CNY, down 32.91% year-on-year [2]. - Direct sales (including group purchases) generated 82 million CNY, up 1.23% year-on-year, while wholesale and agency sales were 944 million CNY, down 27.44% year-on-year [2]. Regional Performance - Revenue from the domestic market was 730 million CNY, down 20.31% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 296 million CNY, down 36.34% year-on-year [2].