太平洋证券股份有限公司郭梦婕,林叙希近期对迎驾贡酒（603198）进行研究并发布了研究报告《迎驾贡 酒：二季度业绩继续承压，静待行业复苏》，下调迎驾贡酒目标价至52.02元，给予增持评级。 风险提示:食品安全风险、渠道开拓不及预期、行业竞争加剧风险。 最新盈利预测明细如下： | 报告日期 | 机构简称 | 研究员 | 近三年业绩 | 研报数 | 覆盖时长 | 2025预测 | 2026预测 | 2027预测 | 目标价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 预测准确度 | | | 净利润(元) | 净利润(元) | 净利润(元) | (70) | | 2025-08-26 | 东吴证券 | 亦饿 | r | -- | 1 | 21.67 Z | 23.49 Z | 27.07亿 | 75 | | 2025-08-26 | 招商证券 | 陈书慧 | -- | -- | - | 22.26 Z | 24.56 Z | 26.80 Z | -- | | 2025-08-26 | 中等公司 | 壬文丹 | -- ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Trends - The second quarter monetary policy report emphasizes a focus on domestic demand, with a shift towards supporting technology innovation and consumption [3] - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term due to cautious monetary policy and a relatively active fiscal policy [3][4] Group 2: Company Performance and Industry Insights - Today International's H1 2025 revenue decreased by 14.36% to 1.412 billion yuan, with a net profit decline of 22.53% [6][7] - The company signed new orders worth 2.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.2%, driven by the renewable energy sector [7] - Wei Long's H1 2025 revenue increased by 18.5% to 3.483 billion yuan, with a net profit growth of 18% [10][11] - The company’s gross margin decreased to 47.2% due to rising raw material costs, but internal cost reduction measures helped maintain profitability [13] - Shenhuo Co. reported a 12.1% increase in revenue to 20.43 billion yuan in H1 2025, despite a 16.6% decline in net profit [15][16] - The company’s aluminum production increased by 16.2% to 871,000 tons, benefiting from lower alumina prices [16] - Yanghe Co. experienced a significant revenue drop of 35.32% to 14.796 billion yuan in H1 2025, attributed to industry-wide challenges [19][20] - The company’s sales expenses increased, impacting profitability, with a net profit margin of 18.84% [21] - Dongfang Cable's H1 2025 revenue grew by 9.0% to 4.432 billion yuan, but net profit fell by 26.6% [23][24] - The company has a record high backlog of orders, indicating strong future revenue potential [25] - Weilon Co. announced a stock incentive plan to boost long-term growth, with a target revenue increase of 11%-14% from 2025 to 2027 [28][29] - Haichuang Pharmaceutical's first product, Deuteroenzalutamide, has been commercialized, contributing 13.07 million yuan in revenue in Q2 2025 [32][33]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yingjia Gongjiu, reported steady growth in revenue and net profit for the fiscal year 2024, despite a challenging market environment for the liquor industry, indicating a strong performance relative to peers [1][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Yingjia Gongjiu achieved revenue of 7.344 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.46% [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.589 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.45% [1][2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.047 billion yuan, a decline of 12.35% compared to the same period last year [3][8]. - The net profit for Q1 2025 was 828 million yuan, down 9.54% year-on-year [3][8]. Product Structure and Market Performance - The product structure has been optimized, with mid-to-high-end liquor accounting for 81.59% of total revenue [5][6]. - In 2024, revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reached 5.712 billion yuan, up 13.76%, while revenue from ordinary liquor decreased by 6.53% to 1.290 billion yuan [6][7]. - The domestic market generated 5.093 billion yuan in revenue, a growth of 12.75%, while the external market saw a modest increase of 1.31% to 1.909 billion yuan [8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to focus on innovation-driven industrial upgrades, enhancing production processes and increasing the quality of its products [10][12]. - Cultural empowerment will be leveraged to deepen brand value, with a focus on the "Cultural Yingjia" strategy [10][12]. - Marketing resilience will be strengthened through organizational optimization and expansion into e-commerce and B2C sales models [10][12][14]. - Lean management practices will be implemented to enhance internal motivation and cost control [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 57.29 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 17 times the earnings for 2025 [3][11]. Core Views - Short-term growth is under pressure, but the company is expected to achieve healthy long-term growth [2]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts downward for 2025-2026 while raising gross margin and expense ratios [3]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.37 CNY, 3.91 CNY, and 4.46 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 6,771 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 23.0%. For 2024, the revenue is expected to be 7,344 million CNY, reflecting an 8.5% growth [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 2,282 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 33.9%. The forecast for 2024 is 2,589 million CNY, a growth of 13.4% [8]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 73.9%, up from 71.0% in 2023, indicating an improvement in profitability [10][8]. Revenue Breakdown - For 2024, the company expects mid-to-high-end liquor revenue to reach 57.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. However, ordinary liquor revenue is projected to decline by 6.5% to 12.9 billion CNY [10]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 20.5 billion CNY, down 12.3% year-on-year, primarily due to an earlier Spring Festival and weak consumer demand [10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a total of 1,379 distributors as of Q1 2025, indicating stable channel management [10]. - The company’s regional performance shows that domestic market revenue is 50.9 billion CNY, growing by 12.8% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province is 19.1 billion CNY, with a modest growth of 1.3% [10].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.34 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.59 billion yuan, up 13.5% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.05 billion yuan, down 12.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 830 million yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company recorded a revenue of 1.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.0%, and a net profit of 580 million yuan, down 4.9% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per share, totaling 1.2 billion yuan, which accounts for 46.35% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - The dividend yield is estimated at 3.1% based on the market capitalization as of April 28, 2025 [1] Product and Market Analysis - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 5.71 billion yuan, an increase of 13.8% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 1.29 billion yuan, down 6.5% [2] - For Q1 2025, mid-to-high-end liquor revenue decreased by 8.6%, and ordinary liquor revenue fell by 32.1%, attributed to the early Spring Festival, weak consumption, and proactive destocking [2] - The company's revenue from the domestic market was 5.09 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 1.91 billion yuan, up 1.3% [2] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 73.9%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from improved product mix [3] - For Q1 2025, the gross profit margin was 76.5%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, with sales expense ratio and management expense ratio increasing slightly [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 35.3%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, and for Q1 2025, it was 40.6%, also up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - Based on the Q1 2025 report, revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 have been lowered, while gross margin and expense ratios have been adjusted upwards [4] - The projected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.37 yuan, 3.91 yuan, and 4.46 yuan, respectively [4] - The company is considered to have a reasonable valuation level of 17 times the price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, with a target price of 57.29 yuan, maintaining a buy rating [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 57.29 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 17 times the earnings for 2025 [3][11]. Core Views - Short-term growth is under pressure, but the company is expected to achieve healthy long-term growth [2]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts downward for 2025-2026 while raising gross margin and expense ratios [3]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.37 CNY, 3.91 CNY, and 4.46 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 6,771 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 23.0%. For 2024, the revenue is expected to be 7,344 million CNY, reflecting an 8.5% growth [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 2,282 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 33.9%. The forecast for 2024 is 2,589 million CNY, a growth of 13.4% [8]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 73.9%, up from 71.0% in 2023, indicating an improvement in profitability [10][8]. Revenue Breakdown - For 2024, the company expects mid-to-high-end liquor revenue to reach 57.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. However, ordinary liquor revenue is projected to decline by 6.5% to 12.9 billion CNY [10]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 20.5 billion CNY, down 12.3% year-on-year, primarily due to an earlier Spring Festival and weak consumer demand [10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a total of 1,379 distributors as of Q1 2025, indicating stable channel management [10]. - The company’s regional performance shows that domestic market revenue is 50.9 billion CNY, growing by 12.8% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province is 19.1 billion CNY, with a modest growth of 1.3% [10].