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东鹏饮料(605499):补水啦强势增长,销售费用率优化
Guotou Securities· 2025-10-27 15:07
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company with a 6-month target price of 366.63 CNY, which corresponds to a dynamic P/E ratio of 33 times for 2026 [4][10]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong growth in its hydration product line, with a cumulative revenue of 16.844 billion CNY for Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.13%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.761 billion CNY, up 38.91% year-on-year [1][3]. - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue was 6.107 billion CNY, marking a 30.36% increase year-on-year, while the net profit was 1.386 billion CNY, up 41.91% year-on-year. The net profit margin improved to 22.70%, an increase of 1.85 percentage points year-on-year [1][3]. - The report highlights the company's digital capabilities in the beverage industry, ongoing channel development, and product matrix enhancement as key drivers for long-term value growth [3][10]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 36.0%, 27.1%, and 13.4% for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 38.3%, 24.9%, and 15.9% respectively, indicating strong growth potential [3][10]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 21.545 billion CNY, 27.375 billion CNY, and 31.051 billion CNY respectively, with net profits expected to be 4.601 billion CNY, 5.747 billion CNY, and 6.661 billion CNY [8][12]. Product Performance - In Q3 2025, the revenue breakdown by product shows that Dongpeng Special Drink generated 4.203 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 15%, while the hydration product "Bushu La" saw a remarkable increase of 84% to 1.354 billion CNY [2][3]. - The report indicates that the electrolyte drink "Bushu La" is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory, with projected revenue growth rates of 135.37%, 40.22%, and 15.18% for the years 2025 to 2027 [9][10]. Financial Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including expected gross profit margins of 45.42%, 45.98%, and 46.40% for the years 2025 to 2027, and net profit margins of 21.4%, 21.0%, and 21.5% respectively [8][12]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 47.8% in 2025, 47.7% in 2026, and 44.9% in 2027, indicating strong profitability [12].