作者 | 李含章 简洋洋 编辑 | 江江 视觉 | 顾芗 便利店的饮品柜里，曾经稳居C位的无糖茶饮，正在被功能饮料挤到角落。 公开数据显示，过去一年，功能饮料销售额增长超过即饮茶，成为国内增速最快的饮料大类。另有行业 数据表明，2024年能量饮料市场规模接近1400亿元，约是无糖茶饮规模的2倍。 功能饮料中，以东鹏特饮为代表的能量饮料，在过去十年间，实现了国内人均消费量的快速提升，从 2015年的人均不足1升，一路跃升至2024年的人均2.79升。 嘉世咨询数据显示，2019—2024年，中国功能饮料市场规模从1119亿元增长至1665亿元，五年增幅近 50%。 "这与之前功能饮料在整个饮料市场占比不高有关。"上海博盖咨询创始合伙人高剑锋告诉盐财经记者。 相比包装饮用水、碳酸饮料、果汁等传统饮品，功能饮料的市场渗透率相对较低，仍有相当多人从来没 有喝过或主动购买过功能饮料，使得在统计上，较低基数的品类增速会更加明显。 东鹏饮料也乘上了行业东风。国泰君安研报预测，2026年东鹏特饮收入将突破200亿，成为可口可乐、 红牛、农夫山泉后的又一个超级单品。 2014-2024年中国能量饮料市场规模及预测/图源：艾媒咨 ...

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·食品饮料 食品饮料行业深度报告 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：宏观经济不及预期；食品安全问题；市场竞争加剧。 2025 年 08 月 21 日 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郭晓东 执业证书：S0600525040001 guoxd@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 26% 2024/8/21 2024/12/20 2025/4/20 2025/8/19 食品饮料 沪深300 软饮料行业深度：后来居上，中国软饮料巨 头的平台化之路 相关研究 《硬折扣系列报告：机遇窗口期，百 舸争流》 2025-07-24 《2025Q2 基金食品饮料持仓分析：持 仓处于低位，白酒明显减配》 2025-07-22 东吴证券研究所 1 / 34 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 观过往：历经三大阶段，品类多元化共振。纵向复盘中国软饮料行业的 发展，大致经历了碳酸饮料主导、多元化增长、结构性增长 ...

Summary of Dongpeng Beverage Conference Call Industry Overview - The Southeast Asian energy drink market benefits from demographic dividends and rising disposable incomes, with Vietnam's market size reaching 10.8 billion RMB and a CAGR of 12% from 2014 to 2024, outpacing China's growth rate [2][3] - The energy drink market in Southeast Asia is highly concentrated, with a CR3 of 83.3%, dominated by Red Bull (42.3%), while local brand Number One is gaining market share through differentiated packaging and cost-effectiveness [2][6] - Indonesia has the largest soft drink market (73.9 billion RMB), but the energy drink market is developing slowly (1.84 billion RMB) due to cultural influences and low caffeine demand [2][10] - Cambodia is one of the fastest-growing countries for energy drinks in Southeast Asia, with a CAGR of 9.3% from 2014 to 2024, driven by the Steam brand's low-price strategy and esports sponsorships [2][13] - The Southeast Asian sports drink market is valued at 1.49 billion USD (approximately 10.9 billion RMB), with a low CAGR of 0.6% over the past decade, but Vietnam, the Philippines, and Thailand show faster growth [2][14] Key Insights and Arguments - The Southeast Asian energy drink market has significant growth potential due to a young population, rising disposable incomes, and changing consumption habits [3] - Vietnam's energy drink market is the largest in Southeast Asia, with a labor force participation rate of 56.9%, providing a solid consumer base [6] - Dongpeng Beverage aims to penetrate the Southeast Asian market, particularly in Vietnam, through sports sponsorships, trade shows, and partnerships with distributors, with plans to invest in a factory in Indonesia [4][16] - The company targets a long-term revenue goal of over 20 billion RMB for its specialty drinks, with expectations of reaching 8 to 10 billion RMB in revenue from its hydration products [4][18] Competitive Landscape - In Vietnam, the energy drink market is changing, with Pepsi's Steam and local brand Number One gaining significant market shares, while Red Bull's share increased by 13 percentage points from 2015 to 2024 [9] - Indonesia's energy drink market is small and stagnant, with a CR3 of 53.5%, where Red Bull's share is declining, and local brands are gaining traction [10][11] - Thailand's energy drink market is stable, with a CR3 of 84%, and leading brands are expanding into other Southeast Asian countries [12] Opportunities and Challenges - Dongpeng Beverage has ample growth opportunities in Southeast Asia, particularly among the young labor force and through local retail channels [5] - The company plans to leverage its high cost-performance products and localized supply chains to achieve breakthroughs in the market [4][16] - The competitive landscape is not fully established, with local brands lacking strong financial backing, providing an opportunity for Chinese brands to gain market share [17] Financial Outlook - Dongpeng Beverage's net profit margin is currently at 21%, with potential for improvement as new products scale up [19] - The company aims for a long-term market capitalization of 190 to 210 billion RMB, supported by a projected revenue scale of at least 40 billion RMB [19]

Financial Performance - The company's total revenue for 2022-2024 is projected to be 8.5 billion, 11.257 billion, and 15.83 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of - / 32.4% / 40.6%. In the first half of 2025, total revenue reached 10.737 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36.37% [1] - Gross profit margins for 2022-2024 are 41.6%, 42.3%, and 44.1%, with a margin of 45.15% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 0.55 percentage point increase attributed to lower raw material prices [1] Product Aspects - Dongpeng Special Drink remains the company's primary product, contributing 8.361 billion in revenue in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.91%, with a gross margin of 50.61% [2] - The introduction of "Bushuila" in 2023 has shown rapid growth, achieving sales of approximately 4 billion in its first year and projected to reach about 15 billion in 2024, contributing around 1.5 billion in the first half of 2025 [2] Regional Revenue - The company has a solid base in Guangdong, with rapid growth in national markets. In the first half of 2025, revenue contributions from various regions were Guangdong (2.546 billion), North China (1.708 billion), East China (1.536 billion), and Central China (1.377 billion), with year-on-year growth rates of 20.61%, 73.03%, 32.62%, and 28.91% respectively [3][4] Sales and Marketing Strategies - Sales expenses have increased significantly, with 2022-2024 expenses at 1.449 billion, 1.956 billion, and 2.681 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.91%, 34.94%, and 37.09% [6] - The company has implemented a "one yuan exchange" promotion to enhance consumer repurchase desire, benefiting both consumers and retail stores [7] Market Trends - The energy drink market in China has significant growth potential, with per capita consumption at 2.8 liters per year compared to higher rates in the US, Japan, and Thailand [15] - The functional beverage sector is becoming increasingly crowded, with competitors like Red Bull, Monster, and new entrants like Dali Foods' "Lehu" [18][20] Financial Structure - The company has a high debt level, with liabilities increasing significantly, particularly short-term loans, which reached 6.551 billion in 2024 [26] - Despite high cash reserves, the company has been criticized for high dividends amidst rising debt, potentially transferring risk to minority shareholders [26] Ownership Structure - The company is gradually becoming a family business, with the founder's family holding approximately 67.71% of shares, while institutional ownership has decreased significantly over recent years [23][25]

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage reported significant growth in its financial performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 10.737 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.37%, and a net profit of 2.375 billion yuan, up 37.22% year-on-year [1][3]. Financial Performance - Dongpeng Beverage has achieved double-digit growth in net profit for five consecutive years, with net profit growth rates of 53.14%, 11.66%, 46.84%, and 56.14% from 2021 to 2024 [3]. - In the first half of 2025, the net profit growth rate was 37.22%, following a high growth rate of 56.14% in the first half of 2024 [3]. - The net profit for Q1 2025 was 980 million yuan, while Q2 2025 net profit was 1.395 billion yuan, representing a growth rate of 30.75% compared to the same period last year [3]. Growth Drivers - The company attributes its revenue growth to the ongoing national expansion strategy, enhanced channel operations, and increased product visibility, which have driven terminal sales [3]. - Dongpeng Beverage is solidifying its core product base while expanding into multiple product categories to cultivate new growth points [3]. Industry Comparison - As of now, China Red Bull (under Wahaha Group) has not disclosed its 2025 half-year report, but its 2024 revenue was 21.98 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.01% [3]. - China Red Bull's sales reached 21.09 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight increase of 1.3% year-on-year, and its pre-tax profit remained stable at 4.83 billion yuan [3]. Analyst Ratings - Huayuan Securities rated Dongpeng Beverage as "Accumulate," citing its rapid growth as a leading player in the functional beverage industry and the strong performance of its energy drink segment [4]. - Southwest Securities and Tianfeng Securities both rated Dongpeng Beverage as "Buy," highlighting the solid foundation of its energy drink business and the robust growth of its electrolyte water segment [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次) [5] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the functional beverage industry, showing rapid growth in its fundamentals. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.737 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.375 billion yuan, up 37.22% year-on-year [6] - The product structure is diversifying, with revenue from energy drinks, electrolyte drinks, and other beverages in the first half of 2025 reaching 8.361 billion yuan, 1.493 billion yuan, and 877 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.91%, 213.71%, and 66.24% [6] - The company is expanding its energy drink business and the second growth curve "Bushi La" is accelerating. The energy drink segment achieved revenue of 4.46 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.77% [6] - The digital management system is a core driver of the company's continuous growth, with a comprehensive digital operation system covering the entire product lifecycle [6] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.34 billion yuan, 5.65 billion yuan, and 7.024 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 30.46%, 30.19%, and 24.32% [6] Financial Summary - As of July 31, 2025, the company's closing price is 281.30 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 146,279.66 million yuan and a total share capital of 520.01 million shares [3] - The company's asset-liability ratio is 61.86%, and the net asset per share is 16.80 yuan [3] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 20.886 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31.86% [7] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 8.35 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33.70 [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH) is rated as a "buy" due to its steady growth and strong performance in various segments [2] - By Q2 2025, Dongpeng Special Drink is expected to show stable growth, with the share of "Bup Shui La" and other beverages increasing to 24% [2] - All regions are experiencing growth, with North China and online sales seeing revenue growth rates exceeding 50% in Q2 [2] - The company is achieving high-quality development across all channels, with a significant improvement in the quality of distributors [2] - The gross profit margin remains stable, although there has been an increase in expenditure on marketing and promotions [2]

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage is positioned as a leading player in the functional beverage industry, demonstrating rapid growth in its fundamentals and aiming for platform development [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Dongpeng Beverage achieved revenue of 10.737 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.375 billion yuan, up 37.22% [2]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.889 billion yuan, a 34.10% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.395 billion yuan, growing by 30.75% [2]. - The revenue breakdown for H1 2025 shows energy drinks, electrolyte drinks, and other beverages generating 8.361 billion yuan, 1.493 billion yuan, and 877 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.91%, 213.71%, and 66.24% [2]. Business Segments - The energy drink segment continues to grow, with Q2 2025 revenue reaching 4.46 billion yuan, an 18.77% increase year-on-year, driven by an expanding consumer base and increased consumption frequency [3]. - The electrolyte drink line, branded "Bushi La," has seen significant growth, achieving Q2 2025 revenue of 923 million yuan, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 190.05% [3]. - The "Other Beverages" category generated 503 million yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a 61.78% growth, with the new product "Guo Zhi Cha" contributing to this success [4]. Digital Transformation and Market Strategy - Dongpeng Beverage has established a comprehensive digital management system that enhances its operational efficiency across marketing, supply chain, and management [4]. - The company has over 3,200 distributors and more than 4.2 million effective outlets, showcasing its extensive market penetration [4]. - The combination of strong digital operations and channel management capabilities is facilitating the company's evolution into a platform-oriented enterprise [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for Dongpeng Beverage from 2025 to 2027 are 4.34 billion yuan, 5.65 billion yuan, and 7.024 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.46%, 30.19%, and 24.32% respectively [5]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are estimated at 34, 26, and 21 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5]. - The initial coverage rating for the stock is "Buy," reflecting confidence in the company's sustained growth potential [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company continues to experience high growth with new products, and it is expected to develop into a comprehensive beverage group in China, with steady progress in overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia [4][15] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 10.737 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.37% - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.375 billion yuan, up 37.22% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 2.270 billion yuan, an increase of 33.02% year-on-year [13] - For Q2 2025, the operating revenue was 5.889 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 34.10%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.395 billion yuan, up 30.75% year-on-year [4][13] Product Performance - The company has established a diversified product matrix with a "dual-engine + multi-category" approach, which includes high-growth new products like "Bubbling Water" and strong performance from "Fruit Tea" [4][15] - In Q2 2025, the revenue from energy drinks, electrolyte drinks, and other beverages was 4.460 billion yuan, 0.923 billion yuan, and 0.503 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.77%, 190.05%, and 61.78% [13] Regional Performance - The company's main market in Guangdong showed steady growth, while northern markets like North China performed exceptionally well, with year-on-year revenue growth rates of 74.1% in North China and 53.6% online [13] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 45.70%, slightly down by 0.35 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to product mix effects [14] - The net profit margin after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 22.27%, down by 2.38 percentage points year-on-year [14] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 20.973 billion yuan, 25.901 billion yuan, and 30.961 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 32.42%, 23.49%, and 19.53% [15] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4.509 billion yuan, 5.709 billion yuan, and 6.972 billion yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.53%, 26.62%, and 22.13% [15]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the AI computing industry, driven by significant investments from major overseas companies, which is expected to boost the demand for related technologies and services [25][27][33] - The introduction of a national childcare subsidy program in China is anticipated to stimulate demand in the dairy sector, particularly in infant formula, as it aims to increase birth rates [43][44][45] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the communication sector, particularly for Corning, which reported strong Q2 earnings and is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for AI-related technologies [24][25][26] Industry Analysis Communication Sector - Corning's Q2 2025 revenue reached $4.05 billion, a 12% year-on-year increase, with a notable 41% growth in its optical communications segment [24][25] - The company's "Scale-up" strategy is projected to significantly enhance its sales and profit margins by 2026, with expectations of a $10 billion market opportunity in data center interconnects by 2030 [26][27] Dairy Sector - The national childcare subsidy program is set to provide annual cash benefits of 3,600 yuan per child, which is expected to positively impact birth rates and subsequently increase demand for infant formula [43][44] - The report anticipates a recovery in the demand for infant formula in 2025, driven by the subsidy and a favorable demographic shift [45][46] AI Computing Industry - The integration of AI technologies is expected to create substantial market opportunities, particularly through platforms like NVIDIA's Omniverse, which facilitates collaboration and simulation across various industries [29][30][31] - The report identifies several investment opportunities within the AI computing supply chain, including optical modules and liquid cooling technologies, which are poised for growth as AI applications expand [27][33] Agricultural Sector - Haida Group reported a 12.5% increase in revenue for H1 2025, driven by strong sales in its feed business, particularly in the pig and poultry segments [60][61] - The company is also expanding its international market presence, with a 40% year-on-year increase in overseas feed sales [61][62] Real Estate and Property Management - South Property's diversified service model is expected to enhance profitability, with a projected net profit of 168 million yuan for 2025 [54][55] - The company is leveraging technology, such as cleaning robots, to improve service efficiency and reduce costs [58][59]