【固定收益】1 月转债月报：抢跑春季躁动，转债估值看涨 晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 08 日 核心结论 分析师 【宏观】良时正可用：2026 年十大宏观趋势展望 我们根据 2026 年宏观年度报告《革故鼎新：修复式增长下的再平衡与新动 力》的主要内容和经济与市场的最新变化，总结了 2026 年可能出现的十大 宏观趋势。 【食品饮料】东鹏饮料（605499.SH）深度覆盖报告：东风已至，鹏路翱翔 我们看好公司主品完善全国化布局及积极推进海外发展，第二曲线补水啦持 续放量；新品推广体系逐步成熟，有望在价格敏感度高的多个细分赛道中不 断培育新的增长抓手。我们预计 2025-2027 年营收分别为 212/263/316 亿 元，归母净利润分别为 46/57/71 亿元，目前股价对应 PE 为 31/25/20 倍， 考虑到公司仍具备较强成长性，首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 【北交所】锦华新材（920015.BJ）跟踪点评：光刻胶清洗剂送样验证进展 超预期，开启交付 公司作为精细化学品细分领域"小巨人"，基本盘硅烷交联剂业务有望维持 稳定增长，高毛利羟胺水溶液进展超预期，叠加募投项目进展顺利 26 ...

东鹏饮料 20260106 东鹏饮料的核心竞争壁垒是什么？ 东鹏饮料的核心竞争壁垒主要体现在两个方面：总成本领先战略带来的极致生 产效率，以及信息化系统赋能带来的资源投放效率提升。 首先，在生产效率方 面，公司单位制造费用显著低于同行业其他公司，如 2024 年东鹏吨制造费用 为 216 元，而其他公司的单位制造费用普遍在 500~600 元之间。这得益于董 事长林木勤推行的总成本领先战略，通过科学化生产排班和信息化系统监控动 销及库存情况，实现精准生产管理，从而降低折旧摊销和能耗。 其次，在信息 化系统方面，公司能够实时监控每个品类在各区域的动销及库存情况，大幅提 摘要 东鹏饮料估值相对较低，约为 2026 年 24 倍 PE，即使未来增长放缓至 个位数，维持 20 倍估值概率高。公司通过高性价比策略和渠道扩张提 升管理效率，保障中长期收益，已完成全国化扩张，拥有 430 万个终端 网点。 东鹏饮料核心壁垒在于总成本领先战略和信息化系统赋能。2024 年吨 制造费用为 216 元，远低于同行 500-600 元水平。信息化系统实时监 控动销及库存，提升资源投放效率，销售费用率低于农夫山泉和华润饮 料。 东鹏 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage's globalization strategy is becoming a crucial part of its growth narrative, with plans to accelerate overseas expansion and establish a strong presence in Southeast Asia and beyond by 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Global Expansion - Dongpeng has entered over 20 countries and regions, including Vietnam and Indonesia, with 2025 marked as its "outbound year" [1]. - The company is investing 1.2 billion yuan in a production facility in Hainan, which will serve as a base for exploring Southeast Asian and global markets [1]. - The ongoing process of listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange is expected to open significant overseas financing opportunities [1]. Group 2: Domestic Market Challenges - The domestic market is facing intensified competition, leading to a slowdown in growth, with a projected revenue of 200 billion yuan for the year [3]. - In Q3, Dongpeng's energy drink revenue reached 4.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate slowing to 15%, the lowest in three years [3]. - The company is experiencing pressure from diminishing category benefits as a "Red Bull alternative," necessitating diversification efforts [3]. Group 3: Marketing and Cost Efficiency - Dongpeng's core product, the 500ml "Big Gold Bottle," is priced at 5 yuan, making it cheaper than Red Bull's 350ml version [6]. - The company has successfully implemented a digital marketing strategy that includes promotions like "scan to redeem" and "one yuan enjoyment," which have driven consumer repurchase [6]. - Dongpeng's sales expense ratio is 16.9%, lower than competitors like Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage, indicating efficient cost management [6]. Group 4: International Market Opportunities - The Southeast Asian energy drink market exceeds 20 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.2%, presenting a significant opportunity for Dongpeng [8]. - Dongpeng is leveraging its cost advantage and brand strength to compete against established brands like Pepsi's Sting and local competitors [8][9]. - The company is adopting a "reverse pricing" strategy to set terminal prices based on target market price ranges, ensuring profitability through supply chain management [9]. Group 5: Product Diversification - Dongpeng aims to diversify its product offerings to create a second growth curve, with new products like the electrolyte drink "Bushi La" achieving significant sales growth [11]. - The success of "Bushi La" is attributed to the overall market boom for electrolyte drinks, driven by health guidelines emphasizing electrolyte replenishment [12]. - However, as Dongpeng expands into new beverage categories, it faces increased competition from established brands, which may challenge its market position [14]. Group 6: Channel Expansion - Dongpeng's channel capabilities are crucial for promoting new products and capturing market share, with plans to increase the number of ice coolers from 80,000 in 2022 to over 300,000 by the end of 2024 [16]. - The company has established 10 out of 13 planned production bases, enhancing its ability to penetrate northern markets [17]. - Strengthening channel capabilities and improving coverage will support Dongpeng's multi-category expansion strategy [19].

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of Dongpeng Beverage from near bankruptcy to a leading player in the energy drink market, emphasizing innovation and consumer-centric strategies [2][3][22] Financial Performance - Dongpeng Beverage reported a revenue of 10.737 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.375 billion yuan for the first half of the year, marking year-on-year growth of 36.37% and 37.22% respectively, continuing a trend of double-digit growth for over six years [4] Product Innovation - The introduction of the dust-proof cap on Dongpeng's energy drink addresses consumer hygiene concerns and has contributed to its popularity, particularly among consumers with high physical demands [4][10] - Dongpeng has innovated its production processes, including the development of mid-temperature filling technology, which reduces costs and maintains product quality [12] Digital Transformation - The company has implemented a comprehensive digital marketing strategy using QR codes to connect with consumers, track product distribution, and manage inventory effectively [16][14] - Dongpeng's automated production facility can produce 1.5 billion bottles annually, showcasing its commitment to efficiency and scalability [13] Market Position and Strategy - Dongpeng's energy drink series generates over 13.3 billion yuan in annual revenue, positioning it among the top brands in China [5] - The company has established over 4.2 million sales points nationwide, reflecting its extensive distribution network [16] Employee Engagement and Innovation - Dongpeng encourages employee suggestions for product development and operational improvements, fostering a culture of innovation [21][19] - The company has received over 840 suggestions through its "small innovations, big improvements" platform, with many being implemented [21] Global Expansion - Dongpeng is actively pursuing international markets, aiming to establish a global presence similar to that of Coca-Cola [22]

证券研究报告 公司研究 / 首次覆盖 2025 年 12 月 26 日 | 市场数据： | 2025 年 12 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 272.11 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 336.50/208.8 | | 市净率 | 16.1 | | 股息率（分红/股价） | 1.84 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 141,501 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,960/13,531 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 能量饮料龙头迈向综合平台型公司 | 基础数据： | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 16.9 | | 资产负债率% | 63.24 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 520/520 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与沪深 300 指数对比走势： ——东鹏饮料（605499.SH）首次覆盖报告 投资要点： 食品饮料 | 报告原因： | | --- | | 买入（首次评级） | -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 12- ...

东吴证券研报指出，东鹏饮料坚定平台化战略，多品类稳步加力。近期东鹏于全国多地召开经销商会 议，明确2026年全面实施"1+6"多品类战略，展示"打造中国领先的饮料集团"的决心。发展多品类是平 台化战略的具象化载体，公司"1+6"品类中，"1"指东鹏特饮，能量饮料是公司基本盘，"6"则涵盖电解 质饮料"补水啦"、大包装饮料"果之茶"、椰汁饮料"海岛椰"、即饮奶茶"港式奶茶"、无糖茶饮料"上 茶"和咖啡饮料"大咖"，公司基于后发优势和对饮料市场的深刻洞察，多品类均落子景气赛道。中长期 看好东鹏平台化潜力，多元化、海外拓展加速迈向饮料巨头。当前在特饮大单品稳增、补水啦第二曲线 崛起的同时，外加依托果之茶战略入局茶饮料赛道，亦规划在东南亚开启出海第一站。维持2025~2027 年归母净利润预测为46.01、58.47、70.51亿元，对应当前PE分别为31、24、20X，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng is committed to becoming a leading beverage group in China by implementing a "1+6" multi-category strategy by 2026, focusing on platformization and expanding its product offerings [1] Group 1: Multi-Category Strategy - The "1" in the "1+6" strategy represents Dongpeng's core energy drink, while the "6" includes electrolyte drinks, large-pack beverages, coconut drinks, ready-to-drink milk tea, sugar-free tea drinks, and coffee beverages [1] - Dongpeng is leveraging its latecomer advantage and deep market insights to enter promising segments, with significant growth potential in the energy drink market, which is still in its early to mid-stage in China [1] - The company is successfully creating new growth curves by entering new promising segments and implementing targeted marketing strategies [1] Group 2: New Product Launches - The tea beverage and milk tea segments are expected to become new growth points for Dongpeng by 2026, with plans to launch new product sizes and flavors [2] - The company aims to drive growth in the sugar tea segment with a new 500ml specification for its "Guo Zhi Cha" product and a new 500ml "Bei Hao Cha" for the sugar-free tea segment [2] - The ready-to-drink milk tea will be fully promoted next year, targeting stable demand in various settings such as schools and factories [2] Group 3: Sales and Distribution Strategy - Dongpeng plans to increase its investment in freezers to enhance sales efficiency, with significant effects expected as the number of terminal outlets increases [2] - The company’s mature digital system and deep distribution capabilities are expected to maintain stable expense ratios despite intense competition in the beverage market [2] Group 4: Financial Projections - Dongpeng's net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 4.601 billion, 5.847 billion, and 7.051 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 31, 24, and 20 [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its long-term platform potential and diversification strategy [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is experiencing systemic opportunities driven by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and increasing residents' income levels, which are expected to enhance consumption capabilities [1][2] - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with expectations of entering an EPS killing phase by 2025, while high-end liquor brands like Moutai and Lao Jiao are recommended for investment [1][4] - The dairy industry has completed supply-demand adjustments, with anticipated increases in demand for milk powder and liquid milk due to fertility and income policies, highlighting companies like Yili and New Dairy as potential recovery opportunities [1][5] - The snack food sector is benefiting from the "lipstick effect," new channels, and health trends, with recommendations for companies such as Salted Fish, Wei Long, Wan Chen Food, and Qiaqia Food [1][6] - The beverage sector is seeing a clear trend towards health, with non-traditional channels gaining market share, making high-growth companies like Dongpeng Beverage noteworthy [1][7] Key Insights and Arguments - The central economic work conference in 2026 will prioritize expanding domestic demand, which is expected to lead to a series of policies stimulating consumption, positively impacting the food and beverage industry [2] - The food and beverage sector has faced significant changes in volume, price, and channel structure over the past six years, with varying performances across sub-sectors [3] - The liquor sector is expected to see marginal improvements in 2026, driven by policies aimed at boosting business and government consumption [4] - The dairy sector is projected to enter a recovery phase, with increased demand anticipated due to supportive policies [5] - The snack food market is expected to gradually recover, supported by rising incomes and new retail channels [6] Additional Important Content - Cost fluctuations are a significant factor affecting the performance of consumer goods companies, with some agricultural product costs declining, providing investment opportunities [9] - The planting area for sunflower seeds is expected to recover, leading to a projected 10% decrease in the cost of sunflower seeds, which will positively impact Qiaqia Food's gross margin [10][11] - The konjac market is facing supply-demand imbalances, with high prices expected to ease in 2026, alleviating cost pressures for companies like Wei Long and Salted Fish [12] - The sugar molasses market is currently at low prices, providing strong support for Angel Yeast's profitability [13] - Innovative companies are leveraging product and channel innovations to drive growth, with notable examples including Nongfu Spring and Uni-President [14] - Efficient supply chain management is crucial for companies, with Dongpeng Beverage demonstrating strong performance in this area [15] Future Outlook - Dongpeng Beverage is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2026 through strategic measures and product innovations [16] - Wan Chen is enhancing store quality and accelerating store openings, which is expected to improve profitability in the snack food sector [17][18] - Hai Tian Flavoring has implemented efficiency improvements under new management, resulting in revenue and profit growth exceeding industry averages [19] - The restaurant industry is expected to see a mild recovery, with companies like Yihai International and Tianhe Flavoring showing potential for improvement [20][21] - In the liquor sector, companies like Yanghe and Budweiser are expected to benefit from product and channel improvements, leading to potential breakthroughs in performance [22][23][25] - Gan Yuan Food is focusing on expanding e-commerce and high-end membership stores, with a stable development outlook [26][27] - Overall, companies in the food and beverage sector are expected to experience gradual recovery and growth, making them worthy of investor attention [28]

近年来，软饮料行业需求修复明显好于其他快消品类，部分细分品类的销售额维持较好增速。作为行业龙头，东鹏饮料（605499.SH）精准捕捉了饮料多元 化、健康化、功能化的发展趋势，在功能饮料、运动饮料等细分赛道取得的亮眼的销售成果，并创新跨界即饮奶茶赛道，在2025年下半年推出了新品"港氏 奶茶"。 把百年非遗风味打造成破圈符号 19世纪中叶，香港开埠，锡兰红茶加鲜奶、糖调成的英式奶茶漂洋过海来到香港，成为当地高档西餐厅里才有的饮品。百年间，香港逐渐发展为区域重要转 口港，贸易与造船业蓬勃兴起。到20世纪中叶，香港人口激增，码头工人、商贩等体力劳动者成为城市运转的核心力量，街头的冰室和茶餐厅成了他们歇脚 喘气的"能量站"。 冰室和茶餐厅从西餐厅引入英式奶茶，但店家很快发现，口味清淡的英式奶茶并不受基层市民及体力劳动者青睐。就是在这些烟火缭绕的小店里，英式奶茶 迎来了一次彻底的"本土化改造"。那杯后来火遍全球的奶茶，最初正是给奋斗者们量身定制的"能量补给"。 店家们很懂劳动者的需求，茶味要醇厚，口感要丝滑，喝完能快速提劲，价格还得实惠。店家们架起长茶袋，以滚水冲泡平价红茶，反复进行闭合壶盖"焗 茶"、打开壶盖"撞茶 ...

来源：猛哥看商业 核心观点 导读： 管理效率持续提升助力东鹏将大量利润节约下来回馈给渠道及消费者，迎合了饮料行业消费者对于高质 价比愈加重视的大趋势，因此公司品类扩张将超市场预期。 核心观点： 东鹏品类扩张有望超预期。市场认为东鹏饮料凭借产品的高质价比打法以及渠道的全国化扩张有望紧跟 能量饮料及运动饮料行业龙头步伐，逐步成长为细分赛道的龙二，但当前全国化扩张基本完成，因此未 来成长空间有限；我们认为公司通过持续提升管理效率将大量利润节约下来回馈给渠道及消费者，因此 所有品类均能突出高质价比，迎合了饮料行业消费者对于价格敏感度逐渐提升的大趋势，因此其未来有 望成长为平台型饮料企业，品类扩张将超市场预期。 总成本领先战略与信息化赋能相辅相成，构建公司真正护城河。公司通过生产端降本增效与渠道端信息 化赋能的持续强化，将越来越多的利润节约下来回馈给渠道及消费者，从而使得"消费者愿意买、渠道 愿意卖"的效果愈加显著，因此带动了公司产品力及渠道力的同步提升，也为公司各类新品的陆续放量 奠定了基础。 引领舶来品本土化+红海市场抢份额并行，品类扩张逐步推进。一方面，公司在能量饮料/运动饮料/无 糖茶/咖啡等舶来新兴赛道依靠高 ...