餐饮复苏，价格企稳 [Table_Industry] 食品饮料 ——食品饮料行业周报 2026 年第 7 期 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | | 徐洋(分析师) | 021-38032032 | xuyang6@gtht.com | S0880520120008 | | 李美仪(分析师) | 021-38038667 | limeiyi@gtht.com | S0880524080002 | 本报告导读： 白酒分化加剧，大众品关注成长及 CPI 回升带来改善标的，糖税预计短期对含糖 饮料影响有限。 投资要点： 化》2026.02.24 食品饮料《顺周期预期企稳，消费价值凸显》 2026.02.08 食品饮料《高端白酒引领，提振市场信心》 2026.02.07 ...

Core Insights - The core demand for functional beverages has shifted from basic needs like thirst-quenching and energy-boosting to health-oriented attributes such as ingredient transparency, low/no sugar, natural plant extracts, and clean labels, with a focus on "sugar reduction, additive elimination, and scientific functionality" in product development [1][9] - The market for functional beverages in China is projected to reach 204.3 billion yuan by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, where energy drinks account for over 60% of the market share, making it the core segment of the industry [1][9] Industry Overview - Functional beverages are defined as drinks that include specific functional ingredients like vitamins, minerals, amino acids, electrolytes, and plant extracts to regulate physiological functions and meet specific nutritional needs, targeting particular consumer scenarios and demographics [2][3] Development History - The development of China's functional beverage industry can be categorized into four stages: nascent phase, rapid growth phase, adjustment and transformation phase, and health upgrade phase, with the industry entering a high-quality development phase since 2020, emphasizing health as the main theme [3][4] Market Policies - Recent policies have emphasized food safety, imposing strict requirements on the production, processing, and distribution of functional beverages, which encourages companies to enhance quality control and management, driving the industry towards standardization and high-quality development [5] Industry Chain - The upstream of the functional beverage industry includes suppliers of basic raw materials like water, sugars, and functional additives, while the midstream involves the research, development, and production of these beverages, and the downstream encompasses various sales channels including supermarkets, convenience stores, and e-commerce [6][7] Current Market Trends - The consumer base for functional beverages is expanding from traditional blue-collar workers and night owls to urban white-collar workers, students, fitness enthusiasts, and health-conscious individuals, with a notable shift towards precise functionalities and health attributes [7][9] Competitive Landscape - The energy drink segment is primarily dominated by Red Bull and Dongpeng, with a combined market share exceeding 60% in 2024, while the sports drink market is more fragmented, with the top three players holding only 44.2% of the market share [10][11] Future Development Trends - Product innovation is expected to focus on precision and health, with a shift towards developing products tailored to specific consumer scenarios and emphasizing natural ingredients and scientific formulations [12] - The consumer demographic is anticipated to diversify, extending to all age groups and market segments, with a growing demand for health-oriented products among older adults and women [13] - Technological advancements will drive quality improvements and efficiency in the industry, with innovations in ingredient extraction and preservation, as well as the application of smart production technologies [14]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China Consumer Staples: Spirits and Dairy Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the spirits and dairy sectors in China, particularly in the Hunan province, highlighting the performance of major brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Mengniu. Spirits Sector Moutai - Feitian Moutai's retail sales volume increased by over 20% year-on-year during the Chinese New Year (CNY) period, exceeding expectations despite shipment controls on non-standard SKUs [1][9] - Moutai 1935 showed mild growth, outperforming other products in the Moutai series [1][9] - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai rose to approximately Rmb1,700, with channel inventory remaining stable at around 0.5 months [1][9] - The expert anticipates that Moutai could bottom out around mid-2026 if retail sales momentum remains strong [2][6] Wuliangye - Common Wuliangye experienced mid-single-digit percentage retail volume growth in early February, gaining market share from Guojiao 1573 due to enhanced affordability [1][9] - The effective ex-factory price for Common Wuliangye decreased to around Rmb810, with expectations of further reductions [1][9] - The company achieved a 40% prepayment target by the end of CNY, although this pace is slightly slower than the previous year [1][9] Luzhou Laojiao - Guojiao 1573's retail volume dropped by approximately 30% during the CNY period, facing challenges in maintaining wholesale price stability [1][8] - Luzhou Laojiao is under pressure to stabilize prices amid declining demand [2][6] Other Brands - Brands like Fen Wine, Yanghe, Jiugui, and Shede saw broad-based sales declines of 15-20% [1][14] - Fen Wine's Qinghua series experienced a low-teens percentage decline, while Bofen remained slightly positive [1][14] Dairy Sector - Both Yili and Mengniu reported positive sell-in shipments during January, but holiday sell-through saw a slight decline due to weakening gifting demand [1][12] - Premium products like Satine and Deluxe outperformed basic white milk, indicating a shift in consumer preference [1][12] - Mengniu's sales decline narrowed to low-single digits compared to low-teens last year, aided by a lower comparison base [1][12] - The expert remains cautious about 2026 full-year sell-in targets, suggesting a more realistic outlook of flat to -5% for Yili and +6% for Mengniu [1][12] Beverages Sector - Nongfu's small-pack water and sugar-free tea registered high-single-digit percentage sell-through growth, while large-pack volume doubled due to strong promotions [1][13] - CR Beverages and Wahaha experienced declines in water sales, indicating competitive pressures [1][13] - Eastroc is on track to meet its 20% sales growth target, with energy drinks growing just under 15% [1][16] Inventory and Prepayment Insights - Moutai and Wuliangye maintain low channel inventories of 0.5 to 1 month, while other upper-mid-end brands face over 2.5 months of inventory [1][11] - Prepayment progress for various brands is lagging behind last year, with Wuliangye and Laojiao showing slower prepayment paces [1][14] Conclusion - The spirits sector shows a divergence in performance, with Moutai leading and Wuliangye following, while other brands face significant challenges. The dairy sector is experiencing a shift towards premium products, and the beverage sector is consolidating with strong growth from Nongfu. Overall, cautious optimism is noted for the upcoming periods, with varying recovery timelines across brands.

陈文博 中金公司食品饮料分析师: 位投资人，大家上午好。那也祝大家新年好，以及开工大吉。那今天上午，是中金组织的 大众食品的春节的情况跟踪电话会。我是中金的食品饮料组陈文博。那今天上午，我们请 到了两位综合的食品的专家与大家分享春节的情况。那第一位专家，主要负责华东、华中 以及华西地区的包括饮料，还有零食等大大的一些品类的运营。专家您好，能听到我说话 吗？ 华东华中华西食品综合专家: 你好，可以，没问题。 陈文博 中金公司食品饮料分析师: 对，那我们就开始。那第一个，首先我想问问，就是您代理的这个品类也比较多，那想问 一下春节期间，比如说这个几个大的品类，像乳制品、饮料、零食、速冻。包括调味品， 这几个品类分别的增速情况，和景气度。然后就综合来看的话，有没有什么地方比咱们之 前预期的要好，或者是要差的？ 华东华中华西食品综合专家: 我们先按照您刚才说的那个品类来说，我们今年的这个总体的品类分成像修石，修石我们 今年的整体性，春节的一二月份，这二月份我们是截止到 2 月 10 号左右。节前的这个数 据，那我们整体的出货比去年同期我们是增长了 10%左右，这所有的修饰，这里面主要是 以礼盒为主，这个品相。那从整个 ...

公司跟踪报告 · 食品饮料行业 | 东鹏饮料（股票代码：605499） | | --- | 推荐 维持评级 分析师 迈向平台型公司，再迎布局时点 —— 东鹏饮料动态更新报告 2026 年 02 月 24 日 核心观点 主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 15,839 | 21,108 | 27,085 | 32,964 | | 收入增长率% | 40.63 | 33.27 | 28.31 | 21.71 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 3,327 | 4,547 | 5,914 | 7,271 | | 利润增长率% | 63.09 | 36.69 | 30.06 | 22.93 | | PE | 44.65 | 32.66 | 25.11 | 20.43 | 资料来源：公司公告，中国银河证券研究院 刘光意 ：021-20252650 ：liuguangyi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522070002 研究助理：彭潇颖 ： ...

行业点评（R3）- 无重点股票 食品饮料 白酒表现分化，大众品价稳量升 食品饮料行业春节跟踪点评 投资要点： 2026 年 02 月 24 日 评级 领先大市 评级变动： 维持 行业涨跌幅比较 30% 食品饮料 沪深300 % 1M 3M 12M 食品饮料 3.28 -3.44 -3.56 沪深 300 -0.90 4.64 17.14 黄静 分析师 -10% 0% 10% 20% 2025-02 2025-05 2025-08 2025-11 | 执业证书编号:S0530524020001 | | | --- | --- | | huangjing48@hnchasing.com | | | 胡跃才 | 分析师 | | 执业证书编号:S0530525070001 | | | huyuecai@hnchasing.com | | 证券研究报告 投资建议：考虑食品饮料板块低预期、低估值、低持仓的特征，以 及板块呈现企稳改善的态势，我们维持板块"领先大市"的评级。 白酒方面，建议关注品牌力强、量价策略改善的龙头企业；大众品 方面，建议关注β企稳、α持续释放的速冻食品龙头；竞争格局稳 固，价盘有望边际改善的乳品龙头 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][57]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning from a single-product model to a platform-based beverage giant, with energy drink sustainability and new product expansion being key factors influencing performance and stock price [8]. - The energy drink segment is expected to stabilize in the short term, with long-term growth potential remaining significant due to market expansion and increasing consumer demographics [11][14]. - New product launches, particularly in milk tea and unsweetened tea, are anticipated to catalyze sales growth in the upcoming months [18][23]. - Multiple internal and external factors are expected to contribute to margin improvement, including raw material cost reductions and operational efficiencies [29]. - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in Southeast Asia, with significant revenue potential projected for the region by 2030 [37]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 211 billion, 271 billion, and 330 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 33%, 28%, and 22% [48]. - The net profit for the same period is forecasted to be 45 billion, 59 billion, and 73 billion CNY, reflecting growth rates of 37%, 30%, and 23% [49]. - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 33, 25, and 20 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [57].

与重燃的"烟火气"形成鲜明对比的是，陪伴国人多年的春节传统礼品烟酒，正在悄然降温。在山西晋中 某地经营小卖部二十多年的秀英（化名），守着熟悉的货架，对今年春节的消费变化感受格外真切。 "以往从年前开始，烟酒消费就起来了，但是今年春节，烟酒尤其是香烟的销量明显不如往年。"秀英告 诉《华夏时报》记者，现在走亲戚，消费者更多的还是选择牛奶、大米、白面等礼品。"我的理解是大 家更愿意为健康买单，除去春节走亲戚的礼品，目前我的货架上流动最快的商品就是东方树叶。" 本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者何一华 李未来 晋中报道 农历马年春节，是山西正式废止烟花爆竹"禁放令"后迎来的第一个新春。除夕夜，三晋大地鞭炮齐鸣、 焰火冲天，热闹的年味重新回到街巷村落，家家户户在声声爆竹中辞旧迎新，空气中满满的喜庆气息。 店里的老顾客、个体户老板张先生告诉记者，今年春节只买了几盒烟。"以前过年要备好几条烟招待客 人、送礼，现在身边朋友要么戒烟，要么只抽细支烟，拜年也不劝烟劝酒，健康才是头等大事。" 烟酒消费下滑 由于门口守着几个煤矿，客源充足。2005年办齐开店需要的各类许可证手续后，秀英便开了现在的这个 小卖部，靠着烟酒杂 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that despite the prevailing narrative of economic hardship, certain industries are thriving and generating significant profits, particularly in the context of Japan's "lost 30 years" and the evolving consumer behavior in China [3][4]. Group 1: Emerging Business Opportunities - The article identifies eight key industries that are experiencing growth, highlighting that a low-desire society does not equate to a lack of opportunities [4]. - The concept of consumption upgrading and demand migration is presented as the largest business opportunity [5]. Group 2: Second-Hand Economy - In the context of reduced spending on luxury goods, the second-hand economy is flourishing, with companies like "大黑屋" in Japan and "红布林" and "胖虎" in China seeing substantial revenue increases [6][7]. - The article notes that platforms like "闲鱼" and "转转" are experiencing significant user engagement and transaction volume growth [9][10]. Group 3: Pet Economy - The pet economy is highlighted as a growing sector, with young consumers spending on premium pet products despite having fewer children [12]. - Companies like "中宠" and various pet brands are witnessing strong sales growth, indicating a shift in consumer spending towards pet care [13][14][15]. Group 4: Adult Care Products - The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, showcasing the potential of the aging population as a significant economic driver [18][19]. - The article suggests that aging should be viewed as an opportunity rather than a burden, contributing to a multi-trillion dollar "sunset economy" [19]. Group 5: Health Food and Beverages - The rise in health consciousness and demographic changes are driving demand for sugar-free beverages and functional foods, with brands like "东方树叶" and "简醇" gaining traction in China [21][22]. Group 6: Beauty and Aesthetics - The beauty industry continues to thrive, with products like collagen supplements and home beauty devices achieving significant sales, indicating a persistent consumer desire for beauty enhancements [23][24][26]. Group 7: Outdoor and Leisure Activities - The outdoor equipment market is growing, with brands like "凯乐石" and "骆驼" benefiting from increased consumer interest in outdoor activities [29][31]. - The article notes that even in economic downturns, consumers are willing to invest in experiences and leisure [32]. Group 8: Convenience and Time-Saving Products - The "lazy economy" is emerging, with increased demand for frozen foods and smart home appliances that save time, reflecting a shift in consumer priorities towards convenience [39][40]. - The article posits that in a low-desire economy, time-saving solutions may hold greater commercial value than cost-saving measures [42].

Core Insights - The article discusses how certain industries are thriving despite a general perception of economic downturn, highlighting eight key sectors that present significant business opportunities in a low-desire society [3][4]. Group 1: Key Industries - **Second-Hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, represented by companies like Daikokuya, has seen a surge in revenue. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth, indicating a shift in consumer spending towards second-hand goods [6][7][8][9]. - **Pet Economy**: With declining birth rates, young people are spending more on pets, leading to significant growth in pet food and healthcare products. Companies like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China are capitalizing on this trend [11][12][14][15]. - **Adult Care Products**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating a growing demand for adult care products in China, with companies like Kexin poised for growth [16][17][18]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: The rise in health consciousness has led to increased demand for sugar-free beverages and functional drinks, with brands like Dongfang Shuye and Jianchun gaining traction in China [21][22]. - **Beauty Economy**: The demand for beauty products, including collagen supplements and at-home beauty devices, is on the rise, with companies like Jinbo Bio and U like seeing significant sales growth [23][25]. - **Outdoor Recreation**: The outdoor equipment market is booming, with brands like Kailas and Camel experiencing rapid sales growth as consumers seek leisure activities [25][26][27]. - **Emotional Economy**: Products that provide emotional comfort, such as low-alcohol beverages and lifestyle brands, are gaining popularity, reflecting a dual consumer behavior of frugality and indulgence [28][29][30]. - **Convenience Economy**: The demand for convenience foods and smart home appliances is increasing as younger generations spend less time cooking. Brands like Anjijia and Kewotai are seeing steady growth [33][35][36]. Group 2: Market Trends - The article emphasizes that the current economic climate, often viewed as a "winter," presents opportunities for those willing to invest in counter-cyclical sectors [39]. - It suggests that the key to success in a low-desire society is to identify and capitalize on emerging trends and consumer needs, rather than retreating from the market [39].