证券研究报告 | 2026年01月12日 食品饮料周报（26 年第 2 周） 优于大市 渠道步入春节旺季备货，多重利好催化餐饮供应链 行情回顾：本周食品饮料（A 股和 H 股）累计上涨 1.98%，其中 A 股食品饮 料（申万食品饮料指数）上涨 2.14%，跑输沪深 300 约 0.64pct；H 股食品饮 料（恒生港股通食品饮料）下跌 0.27%，跑输恒生消费指数 1.21pct。本周 食品饮料板块涨幅前五分别为紫燕食品(33.97%)、千味央厨(22.52%)、安记 食品(18.34%)、养元饮品(14.78%)和好想你(14.75%)。 品类基本面延续分化，饮料＞食品＞酒类。（1）酒类。白酒：板块红利属 性突出，茅台市场化改革多项措施逐步落地。当前板块进入左侧布局阶段， 具备价位、区域话语权的优质公司有望获取更大增长空间，推荐泸州老窖/ 山西汾酒、贵州茅台、迎驾贡酒，也建议关注五粮液/洋河股份/舍得酒业的 改革节奏。啤酒：行业库存良性，静待需求回暖。我们预计后续啤酒板块对 政策发力、需求回暖的感知较快。优先推荐大单品快速增长、内部改革持续 深化、业绩成长性强的燕京啤酒。（2）饮料。乳制品：春节备货有序推 ...

以下文章来源于i黑马 ，作者江南春 i黑马 . 让创业者不再孤独@i黑马 江南春 分众传媒董事长 黑马导师 整个社会都在喊没钱了，为什么这些公司反而年赚百亿？ 日本"失落 30年的秘密" ， 就在这八个行业里面 。 低欲望社会 ， 不等于没机会。 消费分级 ， 需求迁移 ， 才是最大的商业机遇 。 当人们不买房子，不追奢侈品的时候，钱都流向了哪里？ 第一，二 手经济 在中国， 红布林 、 胖虎， 同样业务大涨。 买不起爱马仕、 LV ， 但 抢着买二手。 但在日常消费品领域， 闲鱼 日活破亿， 转转 的 GMV 也大幅飙升。 闲置不是垃圾，是流动的黄金。 第二 ， 宠物经济 年轻人不太生孩子，但可以给猫买高级的罐头。 日本二手奢侈品市场，以 大黑屋 为代表，收入暴涨。 日本 Inaba 靠猫粮上市，中国乖宝 （ 中宠 ） 股价强劲 。 诚实一口、凯锐思、 疯狂小狗、 伯纳天纯、比瑞吉、 网易严选、 卫仕 等宠物品牌，销量持续攀升。 宠物不仅是主粮零食营养品，以 新瑞鹏 为代表的宠物医院，以 泰 淘气 为 代表 的宠物益生菌 、 保健品 ， 都大幅飙升 。 宠物开支逆势增长， " 毛孩子 " 才是真刚需。 第三 ...

文 | 灵感加 值此辞旧迎新之际，我想结合过去十年的观察与未来十年的展望，对品牌营销的趋势做一次总结与前 瞻，并在AI营销巨变来临之际，先一步 发起一场共识。 未来十年，人类将面对史上变化最快的时期。AI技术的发展、科技载体的质变让"变化"成为常态， 而"不变"将成稀缺。 什么是新共识？—— 在变化中寻找不变 AI算法千人千面的碎片化切割，让用户的兴趣与需求越来越分散和小众，品牌满足定制化、个性化的 需求和情绪价值变成必然。 在算法碎片化时代，品牌找到"自己是谁"，比别人看到"品牌是什么"甚至更重要。 品牌之所以成为品牌，是因为传递的品牌内核一直是一致的，品牌有自己的生命和成长轨迹，映射着每 一代在其身上倾注心血的人类性格，并以吸引力法则，将同类人群 同类型消费者聚起来。 一个强大的品牌可以做到，哪怕只是一种气质，熟悉ta的消费者可以一眼识别，并且产生"熟悉感"，从 而产生好感和消费倾向。这种好感和倾向可以帮助品牌 无论是在哪个渠道货架，线上或线下，在消费 者的下一眼接触时，都拥有"优先选择权"，且长期复利。 然而"人类是世上最复杂的"，每个人的思想受到基因、年龄、收入水平、生长环境、周围圈子、认知边 界、生 ...

10 】】】】】】 公司深度研究 | 东鹏饮料 东风已至，鹏路翱翔 东鹏饮料（605499.SH）深度覆盖报告 能饮市场扩容提速，主品基本盘稳健 1）能量饮料市场扩容进行时，赛道龙头地位稳固。根据欧睿，2025 年我国 能饮市场规模达 628 亿元，同增 4%。根据沙利文报告，2024 年东鹏 500ml 瓶装能量饮料成为中国软饮市场同规格产品中最畅销单品之一。2）全球化 扩张进行时，出海市场蕴藏潜能。2025 年越南/印度/泰国/菲律宾/印尼能饮 规模为 15/13/10/3/2 亿美元，2020-2025CAGR 为 8%/53%/5%/0.1%/8%。 渠道建设纵深发展，全国化取得突破 1）庞大销售队伍广布网点，冰柜投放深入布局终端。截至 2025H1 末，公 司拥有超 420 万家网点，实现近 100%地级市覆盖；已累计投放冰柜数量逾 40 万台，未来三至五年内计划投放约 60 万台冰柜。2）全国化扩张持续推 进，区域产能协同发展。2025Q1-3 华北/西南营收分别同增 73%/49%；目 前拥有九大生产基地，技改与扩建完成后总产能预计 1217 万吨。3）营销费 率优化效果明显，数字化策略赋能品牌 ...

东鹏饮料 20260106 东鹏饮料的核心竞争壁垒是什么？ 东鹏饮料的核心竞争壁垒主要体现在两个方面：总成本领先战略带来的极致生 产效率，以及信息化系统赋能带来的资源投放效率提升。 首先，在生产效率方 面，公司单位制造费用显著低于同行业其他公司，如 2024 年东鹏吨制造费用 为 216 元，而其他公司的单位制造费用普遍在 500~600 元之间。这得益于董 事长林木勤推行的总成本领先战略，通过科学化生产排班和信息化系统监控动 销及库存情况，实现精准生产管理，从而降低折旧摊销和能耗。 其次，在信息 化系统方面，公司能够实时监控每个品类在各区域的动销及库存情况，大幅提 摘要 东鹏饮料估值相对较低，约为 2026 年 24 倍 PE，即使未来增长放缓至 个位数，维持 20 倍估值概率高。公司通过高性价比策略和渠道扩张提 升管理效率，保障中长期收益，已完成全国化扩张，拥有 430 万个终端 网点。 东鹏饮料核心壁垒在于总成本领先战略和信息化系统赋能。2024 年吨 制造费用为 216 元，远低于同行 500-600 元水平。信息化系统实时监 控动销及库存，提升资源投放效率，销售费用率低于农夫山泉和华润饮 料。 东鹏 ...

Group 1: Transportation Infrastructure and Economic Development - The recent opening of the Urumqi to Yili Expressway enhances the integration of logistics systems, releasing strong development momentum [3] - The Yangshan Port is a key support for Shanghai's international shipping center, becoming a comprehensive logistics hub and a platform for port and shipping technology advancements [6][8] - The Urumqi-Yili Expressway opens new pathways for cultural and tourism integration, positioning Urumqi as a "tourism transit hub" to stimulate local tourism consumption [7] Group 2: Industry Innovation and Market Expansion - Dongpeng Beverage, named after Shenzhen, is continuously innovating and focusing on niche markets, leveraging "small beverages" to create significant market impact [10] - The introduction of PET bottles with dust-proof caps by Dongpeng in 2009 has gained widespread market acceptance, enhancing consumer trust [12] - Dongpeng has developed a medium-temperature filling technology that allows beverages to be filled at 65°C to 70°C, maintaining quality while reducing plastic bottle weight, energy consumption, and costs [13] Group 3: Green Transformation in Logistics - The Chinese express delivery industry is advancing its green transformation, with ongoing policy support, technological empowerment, and practical enterprise initiatives showing continuous results [15] - Technological innovation, particularly the application of AI in packaging design, is becoming a crucial driver for green transformation in the logistics sector [17] Group 4: Overall Development Trends - Various regions are focusing on transportation infrastructure to enhance regional connectivity, open hubs to facilitate internal and external circulation, and innovate industries for quality improvement, collectively showcasing development vitality and painting a new picture of high-quality development [19]

■航路拓宽增动能 港航经济向新而行 近期，各地聚焦交通赋能、开放拓局、产业升级、绿色转型，统筹协同发力，释放发展新活力，书写高质量发展坚实答卷。 ■高速贯通激活联动 商贸文旅双向赋能 作为全疆重要的国际、国内商贸物流枢纽，乌鲁木齐借助乌尉高速通车的契机，为商贸物流枢纽建设筑牢支撑。 近日，新疆乌鲁木齐至尉犁高速公路全线通车，这条新动脉与既有物流体系深度融合，正释放强劲发展动能。 洋山港作为上海国际航运中心建设的关键支点、全球航运市场的重要坐标，已经成为航运综合物流枢纽、港航技术跃升平台和高水平对外开放窗 口。 乌尉高速为乌鲁木齐文旅融合发展开辟了新路径，以"南北疆美景触手可及"为切入点，乌鲁木齐正借势打造"旅游中转枢纽"，激活本地文旅消费 市场。 作为链接国内、国际双循环的重要枢纽航点，上海港加速了资源要素流动，便利了跨境贸易运输，更提升了城市经济运行功能。 未来，洋山北侧开发将成为新的增长极。小洋北工程作为国家重点项目，对于提升长三角世界级港口群整体竞争力具有重大战略意义。 着眼于更卫生、让消费者饮用更放心，2009年东鹏特饮推出PET瓶加防尘盖的设计，受到市场广泛欢迎。 ■科创赋能优供给 小饮品撬动大市场 ...

食品饮料 2026 年年度策略汇报 20251230 摘要 顺周期板块需求承压，细分龙头业绩底部不明，建议观望。零售渠道型 公司（如万辰、鸣鸣很忙）及品牌型公司（盐津、卫龙）渠道扩张逻辑 不变，饮料行业关注东鹏特饮调整机会，安琪酵母出海和成本改善逻辑 支撑估值。 高分红及经营改善方面，推荐千禾味业和益海国际。千禾味业预计 2026 年弹性较大，益海国际在港股 15 倍市盈率下拥有 6%股息率，有 望受益于餐饮恢复带来的估值提升空间。 内需相关度高的顺周期板块（白酒、啤酒、餐饮供应链）目前处于历史 低点，市场情绪悲观。建议 2026 年一季度至二季度布局茅台，燕京啤 酒及青岛啤酒港股底部机会，餐饮供应链关注安井食品。 大众品板块推荐高景气细分赛道（零食量贩店、魔芋类产品、电解质饮 料），网点铺货和单点产出提升空间大的标的（万辰、卫龙、东鹏特 饮），以及估值便宜且具有潜力的企业（卫龙）。 东鹏饮料在货架管理和冰柜覆盖率方面表现出色，SKU 持续丰富扩展， 收入增速有望提升。中长期来看，东鹏在能量饮料行业的竞争格局相对 稳定，有望逐步替代红牛的市场份额。 Q&A 2026 年食品饮料行业的整体投资策略是什么？ 20 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Beverage's globalization strategy is becoming a crucial part of its growth narrative, with plans to accelerate overseas expansion and establish a strong presence in Southeast Asia and beyond by 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Global Expansion - Dongpeng has entered over 20 countries and regions, including Vietnam and Indonesia, with 2025 marked as its "outbound year" [1]. - The company is investing 1.2 billion yuan in a production facility in Hainan, which will serve as a base for exploring Southeast Asian and global markets [1]. - The ongoing process of listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange is expected to open significant overseas financing opportunities [1]. Group 2: Domestic Market Challenges - The domestic market is facing intensified competition, leading to a slowdown in growth, with a projected revenue of 200 billion yuan for the year [3]. - In Q3, Dongpeng's energy drink revenue reached 4.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate slowing to 15%, the lowest in three years [3]. - The company is experiencing pressure from diminishing category benefits as a "Red Bull alternative," necessitating diversification efforts [3]. Group 3: Marketing and Cost Efficiency - Dongpeng's core product, the 500ml "Big Gold Bottle," is priced at 5 yuan, making it cheaper than Red Bull's 350ml version [6]. - The company has successfully implemented a digital marketing strategy that includes promotions like "scan to redeem" and "one yuan enjoyment," which have driven consumer repurchase [6]. - Dongpeng's sales expense ratio is 16.9%, lower than competitors like Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage, indicating efficient cost management [6]. Group 4: International Market Opportunities - The Southeast Asian energy drink market exceeds 20 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.2%, presenting a significant opportunity for Dongpeng [8]. - Dongpeng is leveraging its cost advantage and brand strength to compete against established brands like Pepsi's Sting and local competitors [8][9]. - The company is adopting a "reverse pricing" strategy to set terminal prices based on target market price ranges, ensuring profitability through supply chain management [9]. Group 5: Product Diversification - Dongpeng aims to diversify its product offerings to create a second growth curve, with new products like the electrolyte drink "Bushi La" achieving significant sales growth [11]. - The success of "Bushi La" is attributed to the overall market boom for electrolyte drinks, driven by health guidelines emphasizing electrolyte replenishment [12]. - However, as Dongpeng expands into new beverage categories, it faces increased competition from established brands, which may challenge its market position [14]. Group 6: Channel Expansion - Dongpeng's channel capabilities are crucial for promoting new products and capturing market share, with plans to increase the number of ice coolers from 80,000 in 2022 to over 300,000 by the end of 2024 [16]. - The company has established 10 out of 13 planned production bases, enhancing its ability to penetrate northern markets [17]. - Strengthening channel capabilities and improving coverage will support Dongpeng's multi-category expansion strategy [19].

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Zhan Honghui as the new company secretary of Dongpeng Beverage marks a significant step in the company's preparations for its Hong Kong IPO, coinciding with a critical phase of capital operations and global expansion [2][5][7]. Group 1: Management Changes - Zhan Honghui has been appointed as the company secretary, with a term lasting until the end of the current board's tenure, following the resignation of the previous secretary Zhang Lei due to job reallocation [2]. - Zhan possesses a strong academic background from Peking University and holds dual qualifications as a CPA and ACCA, indicating a high level of professional competence [4]. - His career includes significant experience in auditing and investment, having worked with Ernst & Young and PwC, and he has been with Dongpeng Beverage since April 2022, rising through the ranks to his current position [4]. Group 2: Company Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Dongpeng Beverage reported revenue of 16.844 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.13%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.761 billion yuan, up 38.91% [9]. - The company's gross margin slightly decreased by 0.6 percentage points due to a higher proportion of low-margin products, but effective cost control led to a 2.6 percentage point reduction in sales expense ratio [9]. - Forecasts suggest that Dongpeng Beverage's revenue will exceed 20.6 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 4.547 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.7% [9]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The dual capital platform (A+H shares) requires enhanced governance and compliance in information disclosure, aligning with the company's current capital needs [7]. - Zhan's appointment comes at a time when the company is transitioning from being a leader in functional beverages to a diversified global beverage group, presenting both challenges and opportunities [7].