专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月9日，在今晚美国公布12月非农前黄金价格企稳，截至周四当周，本周累计上涨3.4%，隔夜由于美 国1月3日当周首次申请失业救济人数略低于预期，黄金整体变动不大，尾盘温和收高，现货白银则连续 第二个交易日走低。 12月就业数据将为市场提供关键线索，以判断美联储在2025年连续三次降息后是否会再次降息。彭博经 济研究指出，非农就业数据预计将显示就业形势强劲，但失业率应保持稳定——这些相互矛盾的信号不 太可能促使美联储恢复降息。 市场预计12月非农就业将增加5.5万，低于6.4万的前值，失业率预计从四年高位4.6%降至4.5%，平均每 小时工资月率预计升至0.3%（前值0.1%）。本次数据需要考虑的因素之一是，11月和12月美国适逢假 期购物季，所以一些服务业和零售业部分就业职位可能受到季节性因素带动增加。若薪资月率确如预期 升至0.3%，则表明劳动力市场呈现暂时性"量缩价涨"的结构性紧张——企业为留住核心员工而加薪。 ▲ATFX图 数据之外的关注要点 数据噪音风险：需关注报告中对前两个月数据的修正值，修正可能改变市场对就业趋势的整体判断。 制好仓位，避免在数据公布瞬间进行激进操作。 ...

Core Insights - The average hourly wage in the U.S. for July increased by 0.3% month-over-month, matching expectations and surpassing the previous value of 0.2% [1] - The year-over-year average hourly wage growth for July was reported at 3.9%, slightly above the expected 3.8%, with the previous value revised from 3.7% to 3.8% [1] Summary by Category - **Monthly Wage Growth** - July's average hourly wage increased by 0.3%, in line with market expectations [1] - The previous month's growth was revised to 0.2% [1] - **Yearly Wage Growth** - The year-over-year growth rate for July's average hourly wage was 3.9%, exceeding the forecast of 3.8% [1] - The prior year's growth rate was adjusted from 3.7% to 3.8% [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for July, along with average hourly wage growth on a monthly and yearly basis, are set to be released shortly [1]

Core Insights - Italy's average hourly wage increased by 0.5% in June, compared to a previous value of 0% [1] Group 1 - The increase in average hourly wages indicates a potential improvement in consumer spending power, which could positively impact various sectors [1] - The change from 0% to 0.5% suggests a shift in wage growth dynamics, potentially reflecting broader economic trends [1]

Core Insights - The average hourly wage in the U.S. for June increased by 0.2%, which is below the expected increase of 0.3% and lower than the previous month's increase of 0.4% [1] Group 1 - The actual monthly increase in average hourly wages was 0.2% [1] - The expected increase was 0.3%, indicating a shortfall in wage growth [1] - The previous month's increase was recorded at 0.4%, showing a decline in the growth rate [1]

Core Insights - The average hourly wage in the U.S. increased by 0.4% in May, surpassing the expected increase of 0.3% and the previous value of 0.2% [1] Group 1 - The actual monthly increase in average hourly wages indicates stronger wage growth than anticipated, which may have implications for consumer spending and inflation [1]

Group 1 - The average hourly wage in Italy for March increased by 0.4% month-on-month, compared to a previous value of 0.1% [1]