今日周五(11月21日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于11822一线下方，今日开盘于12065元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报11737元/千克，下跌3.23%，最高触及12145元/千克，最低下探11718元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 除就业人数外，报告显示失业率微升至4.4%，创2021年10月以来最高水平。而包含放弃求职及因经济 原因从事兼职工作者的更全面失业指标则微降至8%。这份报告终结了自9月初开始、并因持续44天的创 纪录政府停摆而延长的劳动力市场数据空窗期。 总体而言，报告显示劳动力市场进入秋季后的态势与全年基本一致——保持缓慢但稳定的步伐，在特朗 普政府激进政策行动引发的异常经济波动时期，企业既不愿大量招聘新员工，也不愿裁减现有人员。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银昨日重新转跌，最低在11912附近，跌下12000关口，目前暂时收盘在11760附近，行情空头态势强 劲，今日短线主要看跌，上方阻力位关注12000-12500，下方支撑位关注11700-11500。 周四公布的美国9月失业率录得4.4%，高于市场预期4.3%， ...

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced significant volatility last week, with gold and silver showing a pattern of four days of gains followed by one day of decline, indicating a struggle between bullish and bearish forces [3][5]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold reached a high of 4245 but fell to a low of 4031 on Friday, suggesting a consolidation phase rather than a strong trend [3][5]. - The outlook for gold remains bullish for the year, with expectations that any significant declines will be temporary adjustments rather than a shift to a bearish trend [5]. - The trading range for gold this week is anticipated to be between 4030 and 4250, with a focus on potential rebounds from lower levels [5][6]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver also experienced fluctuations, peaking at 54.5 before dropping to 50, with a recommendation to maintain long positions [3][6]. - The target for silver this week is set at 53, with potential for a double top formation at 54.5 [6]. Domestic Gold Performance - Domestic gold contracts showed strong performance, with specific buy signals at 935 and 930, and a recommendation to exit positions at 970 and 965 to avoid losses from the Friday drop [6]. - Current targets for domestic gold are set at 955 for the week, maintaining a bullish outlook [6]. Domestic Silver Performance - Domestic silver contracts also saw significant gains, with buy signals at 46 and 47, and a peak at 54.5, followed by a recommendation to buy at lower levels [7]. - The target for domestic silver is set at 53, with a focus on maintaining long positions [7]. Crude Oil Market Analysis - International crude oil experienced a drop to 58.1 but rebounded to close at 59.5, indicating a potential for a range-bound trading pattern [7]. - The support level is identified at 58, with resistance at 62, suggesting a strategy of trading within this range until a breakout occurs [7]. Domestic Fuel Oil Analysis - Domestic fuel oil showed little volatility, closing around 2600, with a recommendation to maintain existing long positions while monitoring for upward movement [8].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report title: "Bottom Range, Oscillating with an Upward Bias - Guosen Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" [2][3] - Report date: October 12, 2025 [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The US Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes suggest that most participants believe further monetary policy easing is appropriate this year, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts. In China, the manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, showing continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [36]. - The Shanghai nickel market showed an oscillating trend this week with no obvious trend. Refined nickel demand remains weak. Nickel ore circulation in the coastal areas of the Philippines has slowed due to weather, while the nickel ore market in Indonesia has a relatively loose supply. The high - frequency data of nickel sulfate shows a recent price rebound, but whether it can change the weak situation in the medium term remains to be seen. In the stainless - steel market, steel mills are cautious in raw material procurement, terminal demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 118,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,200 to 13,300 yuan/ton [36]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part presents the historical price trends of domestic and foreign main nickel futures contracts, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [7][8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream: China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - The report shows the historical data of China's nickel ore port inventory, but no specific analysis is provided [12][13]. 2.2 Mid - stream: Electrolytic Nickel Price - The historical price data of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) are presented, without specific analysis [14][15]. 2.3 Mid - stream: Nickel Sulfate Price - The historical average price data of nickel sulfate in China are shown, without specific analysis [16][17]. 2.4 Mid - stream: Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - The historical monthly import volume data of ferronickel in China and the Fubao price data of 8 - 12% ferronickel are presented, without specific analysis [18][19]. 2.5 Downstream: Stainless - Steel Market - Stainless - steel price: The historical closing price data of stainless - steel futures are shown, without specific analysis [20][21]. - Stainless - steel futures positions: The historical position data of stainless - steel futures are presented, without specific analysis [22][23]. - Wuxi stainless - steel inventory: The historical inventory data of Wuxi stainless - steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless - steel are shown, without specific analysis [25][26]. 2.6 Downstream: Production of Power and Energy - Storage Batteries - The historical monthly production data of China's power and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and total production data are presented, without specific analysis [28][29]. 2.7 Downstream: New - Energy Vehicle Production - The historical monthly production data of China's new - energy vehicles are shown, without specific analysis [30][31]. 3. Future Outlook - In the US, inflation data is in line with expectations, employment data is lower than expected, and the market expects two more interest rate cuts this year. In China, the manufacturing PMI continues to improve, indicating a consolidation of the economic recovery momentum in the third quarter [36]. - The Shanghai nickel market is oscillating, refined nickel demand is weak, the supply situation of upstream nickel ore varies, the nickel sulfate price has rebounded recently, and the stainless - steel market has weak demand and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating ranges of the Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel main contracts are given [36].

Group 1 - The non-farm payrolls in the US for August were lower than market expectations, leading to a short-term increase in spot gold prices by over 20 dollars, currently reported at 3577 dollars per ounce [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the adjusted non-farm payroll employment in the U.S. for August increased by 22,000, which is significantly lower than the expected increase of 75,000 [1] - The previous value of non-farm payroll employment was revised from 73,000 to 79,000, indicating a positive adjustment in prior data [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of market awareness and the need for cautious investment strategies [1] Group 1 - The market presents inherent risks that investors must navigate carefully [1] - Individual investment decisions should align with personal financial goals and circumstances [1] - The article does not provide specific investment advice tailored to individual needs [1]

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.17, while spot silver opened at $40.66/oz and is currently around $40.72/oz. The silver T+D is trading at approximately 9752 CNY/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is at 9767 CNY/kg. Key focus today includes the US unemployment rate for August, adjusted non-farm payrolls, and average hourly wage changes [1] - On September 4, the dollar index rose by 0.13% to close at 98.27. Spot silver closed at $40.62/oz, down 1.38%, as the August "small non-farm" data fell short of expectations, causing silver to drop below $41/oz. Spot gold also saw a decline of 0.38% to $3545.53/oz, ending a seven-day rally [1] Silver Market Data - The SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 50.83 tons to 15230.57 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - On September 4, the payment direction for deferred compensation fees was Ag(T+D)—short paying long [2] Economic Indicators - The US August "small non-farm" payrolls recorded an increase of 54,000, below the expected 65,000, with the previous value revised from 104,000 to 106,000. Initial jobless claims rose to 237,000, the highest level since June [3] - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the US fell to 6.5%, the lowest since October 17 of the previous year, down from 6.56% the previous week. This decline may attract hesitant homebuyers, although many are still waiting for more significant rate cuts [4] Silver Price Analysis - The silver market opened at 41.191, experienced a slight rise to 41.221, and then saw a strong pullback, reaching a low of 40.387 before closing at 40.658. The market is currently awaiting non-farm payroll results, with suggested trading positions around 39.5 and targets set at 40.5, 40.7, and 41-41.2 [4]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced that starting from August 8, value-added tax will be reinstated on interest income from newly issued government bonds [1] - The People's Bank of China expressed its commitment to support the stable operation of the capital market and optimize the use of two policy tools related to capital market support [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange will closely monitor stocks with abnormal fluctuations, including ST Yazhen and others, indicating heightened scrutiny on market volatility [1] Group 2 - In the United States, non-farm employment increased by 73,000 in July, which was below the expected increase of 110,000 [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs in July, which is below the expected 110,000 jobs and significantly lower than the revised previous value of 14,000 jobs from 147,000 [1] Group 1 - The July non-farm payroll growth was 73,000, indicating a slowdown in job creation compared to expectations [1] - The previous month's job addition was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, reflecting a substantial adjustment in employment data [1] - The discrepancy between actual job growth and expectations may signal potential challenges in the labor market [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. non-farm payroll employment change in July was 73,000, which fell short of the expected 104,000 and decreased from the previous value of 147,000 [1] Employment Data Summary - July non-farm employment change: 73,000 [1] - Expected employment change: 104,000 [1] - Previous employment change: 147,000 [1]