Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the long-term decline in Chinese liquor consumption, particularly in the context of the aging population and changing consumer demographics, emphasizing the need for high-end liquor producers to adapt their strategies to capture profits in a shrinking market [6][20][41]. Group 1: Market Trends - The slowdown in Chinese liquor consumption has been ongoing for over a decade, with national liquor sales dropping by at least 50% [10][11]. - The global whiskey market, as a reference, has seen sales stagnate around 2.8 billion liters for the past ten years, struggling to recover post-pandemic [8]. - The aging population in developed societies is leading to a decline in liquor consumption among older demographics, while the younger consumer base is shrinking due to low birth rates [16][19]. Group 2: High-End Liquor Performance - Despite the overall decline in liquor sales, high-end brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao have seen their sales increase by over 200% in the past decade, reaching 100,000 tons [26]. - The profits of the top six Chinese liquor companies surged from 31 billion in 2015 to 160.7 billion in 2024, with their revenue share rising from 15.7% to 48.1% [27]. - High-end whiskey brands have similarly experienced growth, with revenue contributions from high-end segments increasing from 33% to around 50% [27]. Group 3: Consumer Demographics - Young consumers are increasingly important for the liquor market, with Diageo reporting that young consumers contribute 48% of high-end liquor revenue, compared to 35% across the entire liquor market [31]. - The share of young women in the whiskey market has grown from 15% in 2019 to 35% in 2024, indicating a shift in consumer demographics [31]. - In contrast, the share of young consumers in Chinese liquor has declined from 25% in 2015 to just 13% today, highlighting a significant demographic challenge for brands like Moutai [36]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - International liquor giants have proactively targeted younger consumers to mitigate the risks associated with an aging customer base, while Chinese liquor brands have been slower to adapt [30][34]. - The article suggests that Chinese liquor companies need to embrace high-end positioning and innovate to attract younger consumers, as evidenced by the financial strategies of companies like Wuliangye, which recently announced a 10 billion dividend [43]. - The long-term solution for Chinese high-end liquor brands may involve financial engineering, such as accelerated dividends and share buybacks, to enhance shareholder value amidst declining consumer engagement [42].