证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 01 年 月 日 食品饮料 周观点：春节消费信号积极，关注啤酒接力修复 投资建议：1、白酒：春节旺季动销平稳改善、结构分化、集中度提升， "茅五"批价淡季表现坚挺、关注后续报表出清节奏，当下白酒仍处于低 配状态，建议把握配置机遇，建议配置：1）短期春节刚需及弹性标的： 贵州茅台、古井贡酒、迎驾贡酒、泸州老窖、金徽酒等；2）中长期龙头： 五粮液、山西汾酒、今世缘等。2、大众品：春节出行消费两旺，26 年复 苏信号积极，重点推荐啤酒板块，接力大餐饮链修复，优先关注成长机会、 后续切换复苏：1）成长主线布局零食、饮料及α个股：鸣鸣很忙、万辰 集团、卫龙美味、盐津铺子、西麦食品、有友食品、东鹏饮料、农夫山泉、 安琪酵母、泉阳泉、H&H 国际控股；2）复苏主线大餐饮链、乳制品等β 弱修复可期：安井食品、燕京啤酒、青岛啤酒、华润啤酒、巴比食品、宝 立食品、立高食品、新乳业、伊利股份、仙乐健康等。 白酒：春节复苏奠定全年基础，行业有望渐进改善。近日珍酒李渡披露业 绩预告，预计 2025 年营收 35.5-37 亿元、同比下滑 47.7%-49.8%，经调 ...

中信建投 2026 年 2 月 23 日发布的 2026 年春节白酒行业动销研报指出，本次春节白酒行业核心关键词为 "分化" 与 "触底"，行业整体动销略有下滑但符合 预期，头部酒企风险降低，同时消费端的跨区域流动和零售餐饮数据表现亮眼，投资层面建议把握龙头与区域酒企两条主线。 节前消费端基础向好，春运前 20 天日均跨区域流动量同比增 5.56%，民航票价同比提升，商务部监测显示假期前四天重点零售餐饮企业日均销售额同比增 8.6%，三亚免税、年夜饭预订、旅游出行等消费数据均大幅增长，为白酒消费奠定了消费场景基础。 白酒行业分化体现在四方面：一是品牌与价位分化，茅台动销、批价、拓客全面超预期，五粮液动销略超预期，汾酒、古井等区域酒企依托根据地表现较 好，而次高端品牌普遍承压，300 元以下大众价位成结构性亮点；二是价格策略分化，茅台、五粮液等选择降价保量抢份额，国窖、汾酒等挺价收缩费用提 品牌高度，节后飞天茅台批价预计稳在 1600 元以上；三是消费场景分化，受禁酒令影响政商务消费仍承压，居民自饮和礼赠需求旺盛；四是行业触底特征 明显，自 2025Q2 进入深度调整后，头部酒企核心单品批价触底、库存降至良性水 ...

今年春节，你家喝的是什么酒？ 是摆在柜子里一直没开封的茅台，还是饭桌上被抢着倒空的百元口粮酒？ 别小看这个问题。你的答案，恰恰戳中了2026年白酒行业最根本的变局。 出品丨搜狐财经 作者丨闫思羽 编辑丨李文贤 来看一组真实的市场反馈。 高端阵营里，茅台经销商集体"凡尔赛"："没货，不够卖！"1-2月的配额早在1月底就售罄，批价硬生生 从年初1500元涨到了1700元。有调研显示，43.85%的参与者表示"去年年夜饭没有茅台"，而今年茅台正 在从传统核心客群向更广泛的家庭消费场景渗透。 100-300元价位的"大众口粮酒"成为结构性增长的核心亮点。在江苏盐城的商超里，天之蓝卖到只剩六 瓶；郎牌特曲被整箱买走，直接断货；红花郎礼盒和泸州老窖的部分系列也几近售罄。 但中间300-800元的次高端，却成了被"抛弃的孩子"——商务宴请没完全回来，普通家庭觉得它高不成 低不就，销量同比下滑14%-20%。 第二，即时零售火了。以前囤货一箱一箱往家搬，现在是朋友快到家门口了，才打开手机下单。美团闪 购、京东到家等"30分钟达"成了新常态。 有人说，2026年是白酒行业漫长筑底的开始。但我更愿意相信，这是一场价值回归。白酒不 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company/Industry Involved - The discussion revolves around the macroeconomic environment, particularly focusing on the Chinese market and its interactions with global markets, including the U.S. and Japan. Key Points and Arguments Macroeconomic Changes - The U.S. Supreme Court's decision to overturn Trump's tariffs based on the EPA has created a notable impact, although the overall market reaction has been muted due to prior expectations of such a ruling [1][7][11]. - The performance of major asset classes during the Spring Festival period showed that commodities, particularly oil and gold, performed relatively well, while the Hong Kong stock market, especially the Hang Seng Tech Index, lagged significantly [1][2][3]. Market Performance - The U.S. stock market, particularly small-cap stocks, has shown resilience, while tech stocks have struggled to regain their footing after recent adjustments [2][3]. - The Hong Kong market has been characterized by a significant underperformance of tech stocks, attributed to concerns over the differentiation between new and old technology companies [2][3]. Capital Flows - There has been a notable inflow of foreign capital into the Chinese market, particularly from the Asia-Pacific region, although this has not been reflected in the performance of the Hong Kong market [4][5]. - The inflow of foreign capital has been sustained for six consecutive weeks, indicating a growing preference for Chinese assets, despite a slowdown in the pace of inflows recently [4][5]. U.S. Tariff Policies - The recent changes in U.S. tariff policies, particularly the Supreme Court's ruling, have led to a slight decrease in the overall tariff rate, which is now approximately 13.4% [11][12]. - The implications of these tariff changes are complex, as they may lead to further negotiations and adjustments in trade policies, creating uncertainty in the market [9][12]. Economic Indicators - U.S. GDP growth for the fourth quarter was reported at an annualized rate of 1.4%, significantly lower than the previous quarter's 4.4%, influenced by government shutdowns and trade dynamics [17][18]. - The PCE data released showed slight inflationary pressures, but overall, inflation is not expected to pose a significant threat to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [19][20]. Chinese Economic Outlook - The Chinese financial data indicates a mixed picture, with M1 growth reflecting a recovery in the capital market, but overall credit demand remains weak [24][25]. - Consumer spending during the Spring Festival showed moderate growth, with expectations for continued recovery, but structural issues in consumer spending power remain [26][27]. Future Considerations - The upcoming Two Sessions and the visit from Trump are anticipated to be critical events that could influence market dynamics and policy directions [28]. - The overall outlook for the Hong Kong market remains cautious, with expectations of a potential slowdown in the credit cycle in the second quarter of the year [25][29]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The differentiation in performance between various sectors, particularly in technology, highlights the need for investors to focus on specific companies and their competitive positioning within the market [30][31]. - The discussion emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying economic fundamentals rather than solely relying on capital flow data, which can be lagging indicators [6][19]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and future expectations.

今日（2.24），大消费板块冲高回落，盘初一度涨超1%，规模领先的消费ETF（159928）转跌0.64%，盘中成交额已超3.6亿元！资金再度青睐，盘中获2400 万份净申购。最新规模超223亿元，同类持续领先！ 消息面上，春节出行强度提升，春节假期前6日全社会累计跨区域人员流动量增速较春运返乡阶段进一步上行。消费迎来开门红，商品消费需求旺盛、服务 消费活力满满。旅游市场热度高涨，"分段式过年"普及，主题上"南下避寒、北上冰雪"双线并行，出入境旅游双向增长。春节档电影方面，票房明显走弱。 政策面上，高层杂志发表重要文章《当前经济工作的重点任务》；我国将对53个非洲建交国全面实施零关税举措；加大农村地区企业上市辅导培育力度，帮 助更多企业利用多层次资本市场进行融资；三部门发布重要五年规划期间支持科技创新进口税收优惠政策。 东吴证券指出，历史上A股"春节效应"特征显著，节后资金有望"重振旗鼓"带动量价共振修复，A股有望迎来积极开局。春节休市期间全球股市多数上涨， 全球风险偏好较优。流动性层面，美降息路径虽存变数，但市场对全年流动性预期未显著恶化；离岸人民币汇率假期运行平稳。内需方面，动能稳步修复。 产业趋势层面， ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2026 年 02 月 24 日 信心逐步企稳 白酒春节渠道跟踪报告 消费品/食品饮料 本篇报告重点反馈河南、江苏、四川、山东、安徽等地白酒渠道春节动销情况， 综合来看，26 年春节期间行业动销符合节前预期（双位数下滑），各价格带分 化延续，高端与大众价格带韧性较强、次高端有一定压力。政商务延续承压， 大众消费场景需求提振显著、占比持续提升。除茅台、五粮液等强势品牌外， 多数品牌不再要求开门红，节后库存低于去年同期，渠道压力继续释放，叠加 费用兑付周期加快，经销商与终端信心逐步企稳。价格侧考虑到茅台供需具备 支撑，其他多品牌价格调整接近触底、26 年不再强压任务，后续淡季下探空间 有限，春节后行业配置建议精选强势头部品牌与动销超预期品种。 ❑ 26 年春节动销符合预期、品牌分化延续、渠道信心逐步企稳。 1）行业整体动销方面：26 年春节期间行业动销符合节前预期（双位数下滑）， 分价格带来看，高端与大众价格带韧性较强、次高端具有一定压力。分消费 场景来看，政商务需求仍然承压，家庭消费与个人聚饮等大众消费需求明显 提振，占比持续提升，悦己属性不断强化。 2）任务执行进度方面：当前除 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing trend of instant retail in the white liquor market during the Chinese New Year, driven by consumer demand for immediate purchases and gifting [1][2][5] Group 1: Market Trends - Instant retail has become the new mainstream for white liquor consumption during the Spring Festival, with platforms like Meituan and Taobao promoting "春节不打烊" (Spring Festival does not close) to capture consumer attention [2][7] - There is a noticeable shift in consumer behavior from "buying in advance" to "immediate needs," indicating a growing demand for quick purchases during festive occasions [5][6] Group 2: Sales Performance - The flagship store of 1919 has experienced a slight increase in sales compared to previous years, with specific brands like Honghua Lang performing particularly well among casual customers [6][7] - Major liquor companies, including Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, are actively collaborating with retail platforms to leverage the instant retail trend, which has shown significant growth in sales figures [7] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Customers are increasingly making urgent purchases during meals, with delivery times often within 30 minutes, reflecting the demand for convenience [6] - The store's location in a commercial area has led to a higher demand for white liquor, particularly for business gatherings and gifting [6]

2025年是白酒行业近年来承压最明显的一年。 国家统计局数据显示，2025年1-12月，我国白酒（折65度，商品量）累计产量为354.9万千升，累计下降12.1%，行业迎来连续第九年产量下滑。根据2025年 10月31日智通财经《多家白酒企业前三季业绩"失速"：茅台净利增长6% 有公司称行业调整将持续一段时间》的报道，2025年1-9月全国规模以上白酒企业产 量为265.50万千升，同比下降9.90%。 渠道库存压力成为行业普遍痛点。中国酒业协会与毕马威联合发布的《2025中国白酒市场中期研究报告》显示，2025年上半年，58.1%的经销商反映库存持 续增加，价格倒挂现象加剧，800-1500元价格带酒类产品价格倒挂最为严重。这种库存压力直接反映在行业运营效率上：根据2025年8月28日中国酒业新闻 网《酒业如何穿越弱周期，构建寒冬期的生存与破局之道？》的报道，行业平均存货周转天数已达900天，同比增加10%，部分中小企业甚至超过180天。 2026年春节旺季前，茅台批价回升提振了市场信心，但白酒市场动销复苏分化明显。头部白酒企业凭借品牌优势率先实现经营企稳，多数中小品牌仍通过降 价促销的方式消化库存。 20 ...

大年初三，终于不用喝酒了！说几句掏心窝的观点。 整个春节，AI概念又火了，明确自己观点，我依旧看好人工智能是主线，要不然也不会重新布局恒科，节前连恒医都又建仓了，它们都是人工智能逻辑， 科技目前只有一条主线，就是人工智能，就像前几年是新能源。 1、白酒，大多数人不要参与。 不过，地产消费能源这些，可能会在今年反转，后面还有2~3年的行情。说白了，投资的成长性是股价的位置，并不是业绩，因为业绩好的科技公司已经10 倍了…… 问问自己，如果你也年少有为，你想不想买豪车载着心爱的姑娘兜风。大年初二，你想不想开着豪车，提着茅台、拉菲、和天下等去岳父母家拜年。 快乐消费，情绪消费有时候比物质的本身更重要，不要说面子，人赚钱是为了什么，如果只是满足温饱的生存，刚需，性价比，你不用那么拼！ 2、消费，本来就是没办法交流的事情。 消费股的逻辑其实就是消费的逻辑，你的认知与消费能力，决定你的参与的逻辑，我不觉得普通散户远离地产消费能源这些是错，毕竟科技股的机会更多， 股票的数量更多。 无论什么筹码都是有人赚有人赔，你觉得没有行情的白酒地产，去年也有朋友在里面赚了几十点，别人做自己擅长的筹码，其他并不关心。你觉得你的工作 不行， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the surprising high prices in small towns during the Chinese New Year, highlighting a discrepancy between local wages and consumer prices, which has become a trending topic on social media [11][12]. Group 1: Price Discrepancy - The prices of goods in small towns can exceed those in major cities, with examples such as cherries priced at 343 yuan for 2.5 kg in a small town compared to 198 yuan in Shanghai [8]. - Other examples include bottled water priced at 12 yuan, imported chocolates at 388 yuan, and lower-grade Australian beef at 158 yuan per pound, all of which are higher than similar products in larger cities [9]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The article identifies a unique consumer demographic in small towns, referred to as "county Brahmins," which includes local government employees and those with strong social networks, who have a higher "real disposable income" despite lower nominal wages [14][15]. - This demographic's consumption patterns significantly influence local pricing, as they are willing to pay premium prices for goods and services, thereby raising market expectations [15]. Group 3: Social and Cultural Factors - Consumption in small towns is deeply intertwined with social status and cultural expectations, where spending is often driven by the need to maintain face and social standing [18][19]. - The phenomenon of "face consumption" leads to higher prices, as businesses set prices based on perceived social value rather than just cost [18]. Group 4: Psychological Impact on Returnees - Returnees, like the character Chen Mo, experience a psychological shock when confronted with high prices in their hometowns, leading to feelings of inadequacy and self-doubt [19][20]. - The article suggests that this psychological impact is exacerbated by the contrast between their urban lifestyles and the economic realities of their hometowns, creating a sense of "floating" without stable ground [20].