2025 年 11 月 26 日 食品饮料 食饮年度投资策略：稳基调黎明将至， 抱主线向阳而生 白酒：周期底部渐明，关注左侧布局机会 当前板块处于低预期、低持仓、低估值状态，近两个季度白酒报表快 速出清，行业供需矛盾缓解，政商务消费已经大幅下降，居民消费有 望逐步复苏，行业基本面持续低于预期的尾部风险不大。复盘历史， 我们有理由相信经济周期和饮酒政策带来的波动是暂时的，白酒商业 模式仍然优异，一旦经济预期有所好转，板块估值有望快速修复。展 望 2026 年，"反内卷"等政策下通胀有望温和回升，有利于白酒行业 逐步企稳复苏，建议加大对白酒板块关注，标的上以茅五泸汾为主。 啤酒：中高端大单品势能延续，成本维持低位 啤酒板块 26 年仍将以结构性行情为主，其中具备大单品成长逻辑的 啤酒公司、受益竞争对手调整的公司相对更加具备投资机会。整体啤 酒板块公司的盈利水平仍处于向上提升趋势中，主要驱动力来源于 8-10 元价格带产品的扩容以及各家精益管理后费效比的提升。 乳制品：布局 26 年原奶周期反转，关注乳制品产业链报表利润 弹性 从需求端看，25 年乳制品品类表现分化，常温液奶拖累乳制品整体 需求，低温鲜奶、奶酪等品 ...

2025年，徐州市场监管部门以"服务民生、护航消费"为宗旨，聚焦消费领域人民群众反映强烈、社会危 害性突出的问题，坚持以"打假、处劣、治虚、惩偷"为重点，严厉打击掺杂掺假、以假充真、以次充 好、以不合格冒充合格产品、偷工减料、缺斤短两、非法改装、商标侵权、虚假广告、"霸王条款""幽 灵外卖"等违法行为。现公布2025年第六批铁拳行动典型案例。 案例一 徐州市市场监管局查处徐州某口腔医院有限公司虚假宣传案 2025年5月22日，徐州市市场监管局根据市卫健委移交线索，对徐州某口腔医院有限公司开展执法检 查。经查，当事人在经营场所内悬挂含医生姓名、学历等资历内容的宣传图片，其中3名医生并非该医 院坐诊医生，5名医生学历文凭与实际情况不符。 当事人将未在其医院坐诊的医生资历信息图片，及含有不实学历的医生资历信息图片悬挂在其诊疗场所 内进行宣传的行为，违反了《中华人民共和国反不正当竞争法》第八条第一款的规定。徐州市市场监管 局依据《中华人民共和国反不正当竞争法》第二十条的规定，责令当事人停止违法行为，作出罚款 30000元的行政处罚。案后，经执法人员现场复查，当事人已改正违法行为。 案例二 睢宁县市场监管局查处陈某销售 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][34]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is currently experiencing a recovery phase, with October CPI showing a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, indicating a potential for valuation recovery [4][5]. - The overall performance of the food and beverage sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 2.82% compared to a decrease of 0.18% for the index [5][6]. - The industry is characterized by a significant decline in overall performance for the liquor sector, but there are signs of demand recovery as policy pressures ease and consumption policies are implemented [4][5]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor companies reported a significant decline in third-quarter performance, entering a rapid clearing phase, but demand is expected to show weak recovery due to easing policy pressures [4]. - The top liquor companies are increasing dividend payouts, enhancing their attractiveness for investment [4]. - The e-commerce channel for liquor sales has shown strong growth during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with notable increases in sales for major brands [5]. Consumer Goods - The consumer goods segment is focusing on high-growth areas, with some categories still benefiting from new products and channels, leading to potential valuation premiums for scarce growth targets [4]. - Companies like Wancheng Group and Dongpeng Beverage are highlighted for their strong growth trends [4]. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's sub-segments have shown varied performance, with pre-processed foods leading gains at +6.93%, while soft drinks lagged at -0.23% [5][10]. - The top-performing stocks in the food and beverage sector include Huanlejia (+43.19%) and Sanyuan Shares (+31.79%) [5][12]. Economic Indicators - October's macroeconomic data supports a trend of marginal improvement in consumer spending, with retail sales growing by 2.9% year-on-year and dining revenue increasing by 3.8% [5]. - The overall consumer goods market is showing positive signs, supported by a stable service sector PMI [5].

Core Viewpoint - The essence of investment lies in deeply understanding the intrinsic value and future cash flows of a company, rather than being swayed by short-term market price fluctuations [3][6]. Investment Philosophy - Duan Yongping currently holds only Kweichow Moutai in the A-share market, emphasizing that investment decisions should be based on future cash flows rather than single metrics like price-to-earnings ratios [2]. - He believes that if a stock cannot withstand a 50% drop, it should not have been purchased in the first place, indicating a strong conviction in understanding the intrinsic value of investments [2][3]. - Duan identifies as a "full position" investor, preferring to avoid holding large amounts of cash due to low interest rates, and he is cautious about switching investments without clear opportunities [2][3]. Decision-Making and Opportunity Cost - Duan emphasizes the importance of continuously evaluating opportunity costs during the holding period of an investment, suggesting that long-term holding does not equate to never selling [4][5]. - He illustrates that if he had understood Nvidia's potential five years ago, it would have been reasonable to switch from Moutai to Nvidia if conditions allowed [4]. Understanding Companies - Duan asserts that the principle of "buying stocks means buying companies" is simple but challenging to execute, as truly understanding a company's business model and future cash flows is difficult [6]. - He notes that even if one does not fully understand a company, it is still possible to make money, but such success is often based on luck rather than skill [6]. Cultural and Strategic Insights - Duan critiques Nokia's decline, attributing it to a failure to prioritize user needs and a rigid adherence to its own systems, which led to missed opportunities [7]. - He stresses that understanding a company requires looking beyond its business and trends to examine its internal culture and strategic direction [7]. Talent Selection and Organizational Culture - Duan believes that selecting individuals with shared values is crucial for organizational success, emphasizing that a strong cultural alignment fosters long-term relationships and cohesion [9]. - He categorizes individuals in an organization as either "like-minded" or "co-workers," highlighting the importance of deep value alignment for effective collaboration [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the strategic configuration period for quality companies [3][7]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has shown signs of recovery, with retail sales growth of 2.9% year-on-year in October and a 3.8% increase in restaurant revenue, indicating a rebound from previous declines [3][7]. - Major liquor companies have experienced significant revenue declines, but the market is actively seeking a balance between volume and price, suggesting a potential bottoming out of the market [3][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of patience regarding fundamental performance and notes that individual stock performance will vary during this adjustment phase [3][7]. Summary by Sections Food and Beverage Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector rose by 2.82% last week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.99 percentage points [6]. - Key stocks such as Huanyujia and Sanyuan have shown significant gains, while Dongpeng Beverage and Qianwei Yangchun faced declines [6]. Liquor Sector Analysis - The report indicates that the liquor sector is entering a strategic configuration phase, with expectations of a fundamental turning point in Q3 2026 [8]. - The average price for Moutai is reported at 1655 RMB for loose bottles, with a week-on-week increase of 15 RMB, while the price for Wuliangye remains stable at approximately 830 RMB [8][26]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on sales volume in early 2026, but a stabilization and recovery in prices as inventory clears and demand rebounds [8]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The performance of consumer goods companies has been mixed, with leading firms like Yili and Qingdao Beer maintaining stable operations, while some companies in the snack and beverage sectors have seen a slowdown in revenue growth [9]. - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend yielding companies and those with sustainable growth potential, particularly in the snack and beverage segments [9]. Valuation Metrics - As of November 14, 2025, the food and beverage sector has a dynamic PE of 20.85x, with a premium rate of 27%, while the liquor sector has a dynamic PE of 19.51x, with a premium rate of 18% [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the food and beverage industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the first month-on-month increase in PPI (Producer Price Index) in 2023, which is expected to positively impact the profitability recovery of the food and beverage industry [1][8]. - The correlation between food and beverage industry revenues and PPI is emphasized, suggesting that improvements in PPI will lead to better profit margins for food companies [1][9]. - The report recommends focusing on cyclical sectors such as the liquor segment and snack foods that benefit from channel advantages due to the overall price recovery [9]. Summary by Sections PPI and CPI Analysis - In October, CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year and month-on-month, while PPI decreased by 2.1% year-on-year but showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking the first rise in 2023 [2][8]. - The report notes that the improvement in supply-demand relationships across various industries has led to price increases in sectors such as coal mining and photovoltaic equipment [2][8]. Market Performance - The report provides a weekly performance overview of various sub-sectors within the food and beverage industry, with seasoning and fermentation products leading with a 1.75% increase, while other food categories showed mixed results [10][13]. - Key companies in the liquor sector, such as Zhongxin Niya and Weilang Co., saw significant stock price increases, while others like Huaiqi Mountain and Jiu Gui Jiu experienced declines [13][21]. Company Tracking - The report includes recent announcements from major companies, such as Kweichow Moutai's mid-term profit distribution plan and share buyback initiatives, which aim to enhance shareholder confidence [23][27]. - It also notes the issuance of short-term financing by Yili Co. and the extension of pre-restructuring for Tianbang Food, indicating ongoing corporate activities within the industry [23][24].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][19] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage industry is expected to recover due to domestic demand policies and continuous macroeconomic data improvement. The focus on increasing residents' consumption power is a key goal in the "14th Five-Year Plan," making consumption enhancement a future policy priority. The recovery of the food and beverage sub-industries is anticipated under these conditions [2][4] - The report suggests prioritizing investments in sub-sectors benefiting from the recovery of dining consumption scenarios, such as frozen foods, condiments, and the broader dining supply chain. Key companies to watch include Anjijia Food, Yihai International, Baba Food, and Guoquan [2][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Macroeconomic Data - Since March, core CPI has been recovering, with September and October figures at 1.0% and 1.2%, respectively. The CPI turned positive in October at 0.2%, indicating a positive price trend. Retail sales of consumer goods from January to September increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with goods consumption outperforming dining consumption [4][2] Policy Environment - The report emphasizes that enhancing residents' consumption rates is a key goal in the "14th Five-Year Plan," with domestic demand playing a crucial role in economic growth. The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth has been higher than that of capital formation in recent years, indicating significant potential for consumption growth in China [4][2] Sub-Industry Performance - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with revenue and net profit growth rates for the first three quarters of 2025 at -5.8% and -6.9%, respectively. The report notes that while the industry is currently at a low point, it is transitioning from "over-competition" to "orderly competition" [4][2] - The performance of leading companies in the consumer goods sector demonstrates resilience, particularly in frozen foods, beer, and dining chain formats. The report highlights that leading companies are adapting to market changes and improving their performance [4][2]

Group 1: Values and Philosophy - The individual expresses a lack of grand ambitions, preferring to live a simple life [4] - Long-term decision-making reduces the probability of errors [4] - Learning involves costs and mistakes, which are acceptable in the process of doing the right things [4] - The importance of shared values in collaboration is emphasized [4][5] Group 2: Business Operations - Product trends are visible, but company culture is crucial [7] - Management cannot save a company if there are strategic and cultural issues [8] - The founder's influence on corporate culture is significant, and those who do not align with it will eventually leave [10] - A focus on doing the right things is essential for business discussions [13] Group 3: Investment Insights - Understanding a company is challenging, yet essential for investment success [15] - The individual has invested in notable companies like NetEase, Yahoo, and Apple, with varying degrees of understanding [15] - The individual holds three main stocks: Apple, Tencent, and Moutai [16] - The concept of "buying a company" is highlighted, with a note that many investors do not grasp this [16] - The importance of understanding a company's culture and long-term vision is reiterated [19] - The individual believes that many electric vehicle companies will struggle, with only a few likely to succeed [20] Group 4: AI and Market Trends - AI is compared to the Industrial Revolution, with a caution about the accompanying bubbles [24] - Day trading based on technical analysis is deemed increasingly difficult [24] Group 5: Education and Personal Aspirations - Parents should focus on providing security for their children, avoiding actions that reduce it [24] - The individual emphasizes the importance of enjoying daily activities and not striving for grand achievements [24] - A warning is given that investing is difficult and most retail investors lose money [24]

Core Viewpoint - Douyin's recent initiative to combat false advertising related to low-priced Moutai highlights the broader issue of market governance in the platform economy, where traditional market structures are being redefined [2][3]. Group 1: Market Governance Challenges - The rise of platform economies complicates market transactions, transforming simple supply-demand disputes into multi-party contractual disputes involving platforms, merchants, and logistics [3]. - The definition and delineation of power and rights within platform governance present significant challenges, particularly regarding who has the authority to determine infringement in disputes [4]. Group 2: Platform Governance Issues - If platforms lack the authority to address public externality disputes, they risk creating a market environment where poor quality drives out good quality, known as market lemonization [4]. - Platforms like Douyin may have the capability to efficiently adjudicate disputes, which could complement rather than conflict with regulatory authorities, potentially enhancing the overall governance framework [4]. Group 3: Proposed Solutions - There is a need for a balanced power delegation mechanism that ensures accountability and transparency in dispute resolution, allowing platforms to manage certain disputes while being overseen by regulatory bodies [5]. - The evolution of market governance should align with technological advancements, promoting a collaborative approach to rights and power management in the digital economy [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities of market governance in the context of platform economies, highlighting the challenges posed by the dual nature of public and private rights within these platforms [2][3]. Group 1: Market Governance Challenges - The recent actions by Douyin (TikTok) to combat false advertising related to low-priced Moutai have sparked a broader discussion on market governance issues, particularly in platform economies [2]. - The rise of platform economies has transformed traditional market structures, complicating the relationships between consumers, merchants, and platforms, leading to multi-party contractual disputes [2]. Group 2: Legal and Regulatory Implications - There are significant risks associated with determining infringement qualifications, particularly regarding who has the authority to recognize infringement in disputes between consumers and merchants [4]. - The governance of platforms is critical; if platforms lack the authority to address public externality disputes, it could lead to market degradation, where poor quality drives out good quality [4]. Group 3: Platform Authority and Responsibility - Platforms like Douyin have a legitimate role in evaluating disputes and defining false advertising, which can enhance the efficiency of market regulation without undermining regulatory authority [5]. - Granting platforms initial technical recognition rights for public externality disputes involves a power-sharing issue, necessitating a balanced responsibility framework to prevent abuse of power by platform operators [6]. Group 4: Future of Market Governance - A transparent mechanism for delegating dispute resolution authority to platform operators is essential, alongside a regulatory framework to oversee platform governance practices [6]. - The evolution of market governance is seen as an internal logic that adapts to market dynamics, with technological advancements facilitating lower transaction costs in addressing public externality issues [6].