作·嗅之星榜单，以周榜的形式，呈现每周新鲜出炉的优秀作品。2025年8月15日～2025年8月21日，虎嗅第276 期，作·嗅之星的获奖文章分别是： TOP 1：《日本中年返贫史》作者：分析师Boden TOP 2：《物业费，全国大跳水》作者：盐财经 TOP 3：《人人喊打的机械车位，终于活不下去了》作者：差评君 TOP 4：《背后捅刀？俄罗斯宣布禁售中国卡车》作者：快刀财经 TOP 5：《"埃尔多安经济学"崩了，土耳其往哪走？》作者：新潮沉思录 TOP 6：《茅台最大的难题，是年轻人不会在小红书上晒茅台》作者：爅爅有闻 TOP 7：《俄罗斯为什么不愿意开发远东？》作者：江宁知府 TOP 8：《小米的草包时刻》作者：autocarweekly TOP 9：《喜来登在中国是怎么没落的？》作者：旅界 UJIF HH THIT H 嗅将定期给获奖作者发放奖金,并给予站内推荐等特殊扶 持权益。 TOP 1 以下为榜单详情： 分析师Boden 《日本中年返贫史》 TOP 2 盐财经 《物业费, 全国大跳水》 TOP 3 差评君 《人人喊打的机械车位,终于活不下去了》 TOP 4 新潮沉思录 《"埃尔多安经济学" 崩了, ...

证 券 分 析 师 食品饮料 吕 昌 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 2025 年 08 月 24 日 板块受益市场轮动 基本面继续等待 验证 看好 ——食品饮料行业周报 20250818-20250822 相关研究 《茅台业绩符合预期 优质食品公司价值显 现——食品饮料行业周报 20250811- 20250815》 2025/08/16 《优质食品公司价值逐步显现 白酒继续等 待——食品饮料行业周报 20250804- 20250808》 2025/08/09 《板块回调 优质公司投资价值逐步显现— —食品饮料行业周报 20250728- 20250801》 2025/08/02 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 严泽楠 A0230524090001 yanzn@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王子昂 (8621)23297818× wangza@swsresearch ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of middle-aged and elderly individuals becoming addicted to online shopping, leading to a significant impact on family relationships and raising concerns about the quality and necessity of their purchases [1][36][38]. Group 1: Online Shopping Behavior - Middle-aged and elderly consumers are increasingly engaging in online shopping, often purchasing low-quality or unnecessary items, which has become a source of frustration for their children [1][36]. - The allure of low prices drives these consumers to buy items that are often deemed "junk" or "three-no products" (no quality, no brand, no after-sales service) [4][12]. - The convenience of online shopping has led to a surge in deliveries, with families overwhelmed by the volume of packages arriving at their homes [23][36]. Group 2: Psychological Factors - The article highlights that many elderly individuals are motivated by a fear of being left behind in a rapidly changing world, leading them to engage in online shopping as a way to stay connected [38]. - There is a psychological manipulation at play, where unscrupulous sellers exploit the elderly's desire for bargains and their lack of understanding of online shopping processes [36][38]. - The phenomenon reflects a role reversal in family dynamics, where younger generations now worry about their parents' online habits, similar to how parents once worried about their children's gaming [38]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article suggests that the market for online products targeted at the elderly is thriving, as businesses find it easier to sell to this demographic due to their willingness to spend [36]. - There is a growing trend of products marketed with dubious claims, such as health benefits or unique features, which appeal to the elderly's concerns about health and wellness [21][36]. - The rise of live-stream shopping has become particularly popular among older consumers, who are drawn to the interactive and engaging nature of these platforms [10][36].

Core Viewpoint - The market is reacting positively to the high-end beer strategy of Zhenjiu Lidu, while Yanjing Beer, which is venturing into the beverage industry, is facing a decline in stock performance. This indicates that market strategies that align with consumer preferences are becoming a significant consideration for investors [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Zhenjiu Lidu's stock surged by 24.9% this week, attracting significant market attention [2][4]. - Other notable performers in the liquor sector include Gujing Gongjiu with a 6.58% increase and Shanxi Fenjiu with a 5.28% increase, while only a few stocks like Tianyoude Jiu and *ST Yedao experienced declines [2][3]. - The Wind liquor index rose by 2.08%, closing at 58860.75 points as of August 15 [1]. Group 2: Company Performance - Guizhou Moutai reported a total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89%, showcasing strong performance [3]. - Yanjing Beer reported a significant net profit increase, but its mid-to-high-end product growth has slowed, with revenue from these products reaching approximately 5.5 billion yuan, a 9.32% increase year-on-year [4][5]. - The beverage strategy of Yanjing Beer, particularly the Beisite soda, is under scrutiny as it currently generates less than 100 million yuan in revenue, accounting for less than 1% of total revenue [4]. Group 3: Market Trends - The white liquor market is showing signs of recovery, with expectations that the performance of leading brands will stabilize post-Mid-Autumn Festival [3]. - The current market sentiment reflects low expectations and valuations for the white liquor sector, with a favorable chip structure and high dividend characteristics for leading companies [3]. - The contrasting stock performances of Zhenjiu Lidu and Yanjing Beer highlight the importance of aligning business strategies with new consumer trends, such as quality and emotional value [4].

Group 1: Guizhou Moutai and Chongqing Beer - Guizhou Moutai reported a total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% [1] - Chongqing Beer experienced a slight revenue decline of 0.24% to 8.839 billion yuan, with a net profit decrease of 4.03% to 865 million yuan, while maintaining a sales volume of 1.8008 million kiloliters, a 0.95% increase [1] Group 2: Wei Long and Angel Yeast - Wei Long reported total revenue of 3.483 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 18.5%, with a net profit of 736 million yuan, also up 18.5% [3] - Angel Yeast achieved a revenue of 7.899 billion yuan, a 10.10% increase, and a net profit of 799 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 15.66% [5] Group 3: Jinlongyu and Master Kong - Jinlongyu's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 115.682 billion yuan, a 5.67% increase, with a net profit of 1.756 billion yuan, up 60.07% [5] - Master Kong reported a revenue of 40.092 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.7%, but a net profit of 2.271 billion yuan, an increase of 20.5% [7] Group 4: Budweiser and Step by Step - Budweiser's response to market changes indicated a significant increase in the number of new distributors compared to those eliminated, reflecting a normal dynamic optimization of its distribution system [6] - Step by Step reported a revenue of 2.129 billion yuan, a 24.45% increase, and a net profit of 201 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [10] Group 5: Wanchen Group - Wanchen Group plans to acquire 49% of Nanjing Wanyou for 1.379 billion yuan, aiming to enhance its core team and improve long-term development [11]

Group 1 - The article discusses the contrasting market positions of two brands: Mixue Ice City and Sam's Club, highlighting their cultural and consumer implications [1][4] - Mixue Ice City is characterized by its "mass line" approach, gaining consumer support even amid food safety controversies, exemplified by the slogan "Mixue doesn't mind I'm poor, I don't mind Mixue is dirty" [1][3] - Sam's Club is perceived as a symbol of the middle class, facing backlash from consumers when it stocked certain products, such as the Korean snack, which led to its removal from shelves [1][4] Group 2 - The article notes that Mixue Ice City has successfully positioned itself as an affordable option, with prices for drinks kept under 10 yuan, making it accessible to a broader audience [3] - Sam's Club is described as a place where consumers can find quality products at reasonable prices, with the membership fee of around 200 yuan seen as a practical investment for avoiding counterfeit goods [5][6] - The author observes that while Sam's Club is often associated with middle-class status, its offerings are more suited for larger families, suggesting a disconnect between the brand's image and its actual consumer base [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment analysis opinion indicates a positive outlook for traditional consumer leading companies, suggesting they have long-term investment value from a dividend and yield perspective [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the head companies in traditional consumption have undergone adjustments and are now positioned for long-term investment value. It highlights the potential for performance differentiation among food stocks characterized by new consumption trends, with a focus on companies that possess long-term competitiveness and improvement potential [5]. - In the liquor sector, the report notes that due to slow macro demand recovery and further restrictions on consumption scenarios, sales pressure is expected to remain significant this year, with financial statements also under pressure. Key recommendations include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, while also paying attention to Wuliangye, Jinshiyuan, and Yingjiagongjiu [5][6]. - For the mass consumer goods sector, the report suggests that cost advantages will support profitability, and the emergence of new products and channels will foster growth. It recommends leading companies in mature sectors like dairy and beer, and highlights growth opportunities in new retail formats driven by consumer trends towards self-indulgence, health, and convenience [5][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Industry Insights - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.63% increase last week, with liquor rising by 0.38%. However, it underperformed the broader market, lagging by 1.48 percentage points [4]. - The report ranks the food and beverage sector 26th among 31 sub-industries in terms of performance [4]. 2. Liquor Sector Analysis - Moutai's bottle price is reported at 1875 RMB, with a week-on-week increase of 15 RMB, while the box price remains stable at 1910 RMB. Wuliangye's price is approximately 870 RMB, also stable [6][19]. - The report suggests that high-end liquor prices have stabilized since July, but future trends remain uncertain, advising patience for fundamental changes in the industry [6]. 3. Mass Consumer Goods Sector Analysis - The report increases its recommendation for Uni-President China, noting that the company's mid-year performance exceeded expectations. Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 2.315 billion, 2.579 billion, and 2.843 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25%, 11%, and 10% [7][10]. - The report highlights the continuous improvement in profitability driven by structural upgrades in food and beverage businesses, alongside a focus on expanding into dining, gift boxes, and family consumption scenarios [7]. 4. Market Performance of Sub-sectors - The food and beverage industry underperformed the Shenwan A index by 1.29 percentage points during the period from August 4 to August 8, with various sub-sectors showing mixed performance [35]. - The report indicates that the liquor sector has consistently lagged behind the market, with a notable decline in excess returns compared to the Shenwan A index [36].

Core Insights - The recent release of Moutai at around 7000 yuan was met with overwhelming demand, leading to immediate resale prices reaching 10,000 yuan, highlighting a phenomenon akin to a "real-life business war" [1][3] - Consumers view Moutai not just as a beverage but as a "hard currency" that can appreciate in value, making it a desirable item for both consumption and investment [3][4] Market Dynamics - The scarcity marketing strategy employed by Moutai creates a cycle where increased difficulty in purchasing leads to higher prices and greater demand, resulting in a closed loop: Moutai becomes more popular → harder to buy → scalpers increase prices → Moutai gains more popularity [3][4] - Scalpers are capitalizing on the price difference, treating Moutai as a financial product rather than a consumable item, which distorts the market for genuine consumers [3][4] Consumer Behavior - Many consumers are motivated by the potential profit from reselling Moutai, viewing it as a more lucrative option compared to traditional employment [4] - The current market environment reflects a dual demand for high-quality liquor that serves both consumption and investment purposes, indicating a trend towards "investment + consumption" products [4]

Core Viewpoint - The auction of 1,750 bottles of Moutai is linked to a criminal case involving a gang led by Huang Yongcun and his brother Huang Yongyu, who have been sentenced to death for their crimes [7][11]. Group 1: Auction Details - The auction is being conducted on a judicial auction platform, with over 1,800 views and 144 reminders set, but no participants have registered to bid [5]. - Buyers are required to handle the transfer of the auctioned items themselves, with all associated costs and risks borne by them [5]. Group 2: Criminal Background - The case is associated with the "Huang Yongcun and 47 others involved in organized crime" case, which has been recognized as one of the top ten typical cases by the Guangdong Provincial High Court for 2024 [7]. - The criminal activities of the gang included operating illegal gambling, extortion, and violent crimes, leading to severe social and economic disruption in the local area [8][11]. - The gang's actions resulted in two deaths and 39 injuries, significantly impacting the community [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "turnaround" in investment, using the historical example of American Express and comparing it to current situations faced by companies like Tencent and Moutai, emphasizing the importance of a company's competitive moat despite market fears [4][8]. Group 1: American Express Case Study - In 1964, Warren Buffett invested approximately $13 million to acquire 5% of American Express shares at an average price of $71 per share, which later rose to $180 per share, showcasing a significant turnaround [4]. - The "Salad Oil Scandal" in 1963 led to a crisis for American Express, causing its stock price to plummet due to fears of insolvency after banks sought compensation for losses exceeding $150 million [6]. - Buffett's unique insight allowed him to recognize that American Express's core business remained strong, as customers continued to use its services despite the scandal, leading him to invest heavily in the company [7]. Group 2: Comparison with Tencent - The article draws parallels between American Express's situation and Tencent's challenges from 2021 to 2022, where negative market sentiment led to a significant drop in its price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to 9 times, with the stock price falling to levels not seen in five years [8]. - Despite the adverse conditions, Tencent's core applications, such as WeChat and gaming, continued to thrive, indicating that the company's competitive advantages remained intact [8]. - The recovery of Tencent's stock price in subsequent years illustrates the potential for turnaround when a company's fundamental strengths are not eroded [8]. Group 3: Current Market Observations - Companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are highlighted as having similar characteristics to American Express and Tencent, where despite concerns over oversupply and inventory issues, they remain preferred choices for high-end dining and gifting [9]. - The enduring demand for premium liquor in social settings reinforces the idea that these companies possess a strong competitive moat, similar to the historical examples discussed [9].