Report Investment Rating - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][9] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a supply - loose pattern, with the US cotton market expected to oscillate. In China, the inventory is expected to be tight before the new cotton is on the market, but the continuous upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted, and new pressure will be exerted on cotton prices in the fourth quarter [2] - For sugar, the raw sugar's rebound space is limited due to the expected global production increase. Zhengzhou sugar's spot price is firm, but there is pressure from imports, and the long - term sugar price is in a downward cycle [5][6] - For pulp, short - term anti - involution policies boost the market, but there is supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited, with the focus on whether the demand can pick up in the fourth quarter [8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 14,185 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton (-0.60%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,480 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,589 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton. In June 2025, China's pure cotton yarn imports were about 93,300 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were about 589,600 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season is in a supply - loose pattern, and the US cotton market is expected to oscillate. Domestically, the commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the import volume in the third quarter is expected to be low. However, the new cotton is expected to have a good harvest, the terminal demand is weak, and the cotton price will be under pressure in the fourth quarter [2] Strategy - Neutral. In the short term, the 09 contract may continue to rise, but the upside of the 01 contract is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,839 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (+0.22%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,060 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged. In June 2025, China's imports of syrup and premixed powder decreased year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - The raw sugar's rebound space is limited due to the expected global production increase. Zhengzhou sugar's spot price is firm, but there is pressure from imports [5][6] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term range - bound trading is recommended, and long - term high - selling is advised [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,334 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton (+0.79%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the price of Russian needles was 5,285 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - The short - term anti - involution policy boosts the market. In the second half of the year, the supply pressure remains, and the demand improvement is limited [8] Strategy - Neutral. It is difficult for the pulp price to break away from the bottom in the short term, and short - selling opportunities after the end of macro - stimulation are recommended [9]