郑棉高位震荡，糖价窄幅波动 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约14185元/吨，较前一日变动-85元/吨，幅度-0.60%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15480元/吨，较前一日变动+56元/吨，现货基差CF09+1295，较前一日变动+141；3128B棉全国均价15589元/ 吨，较前一日变动+81元/吨，现货基差CF09+1404，较前一日变动+166。 近期市场资讯，根据最新海关数据统计显示，2025年6月我国HS编码5205下属纯棉纱进口量在9.33万吨左右，环比 5月棉纱进口量增加0.61万吨，同比去年6月我国棉纱进口量稍低0.32万吨。2025年1-6月我国累计进口纯棉纱量约为 58.96万吨，较去年上半年进口量整体下滑11万吨左右。5月中美谈判过后部分国内进口商恢复棉纱采购，且纱厂库 存的累积使得整体海外发货周期缩短，相应速度较快。 农产品日报 | 2025-07-22 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，目前来看今年供应端天气的叙事性不足，考虑到巴西和中国的增产预期，25/26 年度全球棉市仍将处于供应偏松格局。由于美棉实播面积高于预期，主产区旱情较 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - For sugar, affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, which may lead to pests and diseases. Internationally, the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere need to be continuously monitored [1] - For cotton, most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days earlier than in previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will remain high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties needs to be continuously monitored [1] Data Summary Price and Spread - From July 16 to July 17, 2025, the price of US sugar increased by 1.21% from 16.55 to 16.75 US dollars, and the price of US cotton increased by 0.41% from 68.56 to 68.84 US dollars. The spot price of sugar in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged, while the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.54% from 3281 to 3280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 0.65% from 15300 to 15200 [3] - The spreads SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, SR09 - 01, CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, and CF09 - 01 all showed varying degrees of increase, with CF05 - 09 and CF09 - 01 having relatively large increases of 109.68% and 132.00% respectively. The basis of sugar and cotton contracts generally decreased [3] Import Price and Profit - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.3 from July 16 to July 17, 2025, and the sugar import profit also remained unchanged at 1579 [3] Option and Warehouse Receipt - The implied volatility of SR509C5800 is 0.0713, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 7.31. The implied volatility of SR509P5800 is 0.0737. The implied volatility of CF509C14200 is 0.1274, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 9.16. The implied volatility of CF509P14200 is 0.1287 [3] - From July 16 to July 17, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.94% from 22289 to 21857, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.60% from 9643 to 9585 [3] Company Introduction - Cinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited liability company specialized in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is one of the large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures companies in China [9] - The company is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [9]