晨报 煤焦 煤焦：需求阶段性承压 价格震荡运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 2 月 26 日 逻辑：昨日，上海发布楼市"沪七条"进一步调减住房限购政策，刺 激地产相关板块情绪走强，煤焦钢期价悉数收涨。另据 Mysteel 消息，华 北部分钢企已接到 2026 年全国重要会议期间临时自主减排通知，要求企 业在 3 月 4 日—3 月 11 日执行阶段性减排管控，高炉负荷按不低于 30% 比例自主减排，并由企业结合自身装备、生产与原料库存情况，制定专项 减排执行方案，按要求上报备案，减排消息 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-25 供需仍待恢复，价格维持震荡 工业硅： 市场分析 2026-02-24，工业硅期货价格震荡上涨，主力合约2605开于8475元/吨，最后收于8410元/吨，较前一日结算变化（45） 元/吨，变化（0.54）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓293851手，2026-02-23仓单总数为19977手，较前一日变化 456手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9400（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计2月12日工业硅主要地区社会库存共55.7万吨，较上周减少0.89%。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13800-14000（0）元/吨。春节期间，下游多晶硅，有机硅，铝合金需求均 有不同程度减少，节后多以试探性询单为主。 供给端：与需求端同步收缩，大厂减产且内蒙四川边际产量减少。 据SMM，近日，衢州市生态环境局发布 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the Spring Festival approaches, most varieties in the agricultural sector are volatile. Oils and fats, protein meals, corn, natural rubber, cotton, and pulp are expected to fluctuate, while live pigs and sugar prices are likely to be weak. Synthetic rubber is expected to be moderately strong, and logs are expected to be range - bound [1]. - The overall supply of oilseeds such as soybeans and rapeseeds is relatively loose, and palm oil is about to enter the destocking trend. The demand side should focus on biodiesel policies and export performance in the producing areas. Recently, the market has been intertwined with long and short factors, and oils and fats are expected to fluctuate [4]. - Near the Spring Festival, downstream stocking is basically completed, trading is light, and the protein meal market is expected to fluctuate [6]. - Near the Spring Festival, the trading of corn is light, and the price is expected to be weak. After the festival, attention should be paid to the rhythm of traders' delivery, restocking, and inventory building [8][9]. - The supply of live pigs is loose, and the price is weak. The downward cycle has not ended, but the industry's destocking process is blocked and needs further observation [10]. - The fundamentals of natural rubber are relatively weak, but the expectation is good. The market is expected to fluctuate due to increased capital attention [14]. - The improvement of the supply - demand pattern of butadiene is relatively certain, but it needs adjustment in the short term and is expected to be moderately strong in the medium term [17]. - Before the Spring Festival, cotton is expected to fluctuate. After the festival, the terminal demand is expected to pick up, and the price center of gravity is expected to rise [17]. - In the medium and long term, the sugar price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. The new sugar - making season is expected to have an oversupply in the global sugar market, and the price has a downward driving force [18]. - The pulp futures are still weak, and the spot market is difficult to improve before the Spring Festival. After the festival, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and it is expected to fluctuate [19]. - The double - gum paper market is expected to fluctuate weakly before the Spring Festival, and the market trading is expected to stagnate in mid - to late February. After the festival, attention should be paid to the resumption of work and production of downstream printing factories [21]. - The log market is expected to be range - bound. In the short term, there is no new driving force, and the fundamentals remain loose [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Oils and fats fluctuate narrowly. - **Information**: As of the end of the 6th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 1974,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 19,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.60%. - **Logic**: Near the Spring Festival, the market sentiment is wait - and - see, and the oils and fats fluctuate narrowly. The expectation of destocking of palm oil is weakening, and the soybean market is affected by trade negotiations and bio - diesel policies [4]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: The trading of double - meals is light, and the market fluctuates. - **Logic**: The market's expectation of China's increased procurement of US soybeans has cooled, and the supply peak of Brazilian soybeans is coming. In China, the oil mills are shutting down, and the logistics is stagnating. After the festival, the cost of imported soybeans is expected to decrease, and the spot and basis of soybean meal are expected to be weak [6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: Near the Spring Festival, the trading of corn is light, and the price is expected to be weak. - **Information**: The FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2340 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract is 2274 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. - **Logic**: Near the Spring Festival, the downstream stocking is coming to an end, and the trading is inactive. After the festival, the selling pressure may increase, and the demand is lackluster. The supply of substitute grains and imported grains may suppress the price of domestic corn [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The supply of live pigs is loose, and the price is weak. - **Price**: On February 9, the national average price of live pigs was 11.71 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85%. The closing price of live pig futures (active contract) was 11,565 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. - **Logic**: In the short term, the slaughter is increasing. In the medium term, the supply will be excessive until April 2026. In the long term, the industry's destocking process is blocked. The demand is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be weak [10]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Before the Spring Festival, it is mainly range - bound. - **Information**: The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 15,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials in Thailand's Hoh Ai market has increased. - **Logic**: The rubber price has increased slightly, maintaining a range - bound trend. The fundamentals are weak, but the expectation is good. The supply is abundant, and the demand is supported by tire enterprises' procurement, but the inventory is increasing rapidly [12][14]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the short - term support strength. - **Information**: The spot price of butadiene rubber has decreased, and the domestic spot price of butadiene has increased. - **Logic**: The BR market first rose and then fell, and the support at the 12,500 yuan/ton mark is strong. The supply of butadiene is expected to be tight in the first half of 2026, and the market sentiment affects the price, but the downside space is limited [16][17]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be moderately strong in the medium term. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: It is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival. - **Information**: On February 6, the closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 05 contract was 14,580 yuan/ton. - **Logic**: The processing and inspection of new cotton are coming to an end, and the demand is improving, but the textile factories are shutting down for the holiday. The market risk preference is decreasing, and the macro - sentiment is weakening. After the festival, the demand is expected to pick up [17]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be moderately strong in the medium and long term. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar production in Brazil has entered the end, and the sugar price is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium and long term. - **Information**: On February 9, the closing price of Zhengzhou Sugar 05 contract was 5261 yuan/ton. As of the first half of January in the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar production in central and southern Brazil was 40.236 million tons, an increase of 345,000 tons year - on - year. - **Logic**: In the medium and long term, the sugar price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. The global sugar market is expected to have an oversupply in the new sugar - making season, and the supply of major producing countries is expected to increase [18]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The pulp futures are still weak, and the spot market is difficult to improve before the Spring Festival. - **Information**: The price of coniferous pulp in Shandong has not changed. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the terminal and downstream are on holiday. After the festival, the demand is expected to recover seasonally. The bottom support of the pulp futures has weakened, and the downside space is limited [19]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate. 3.1.10 Double - Gum Paper - **Viewpoint**: The double - gum paper market fluctuates narrowly at a low level. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the trading is expected to decrease, and the market is stable. In February, the number of enterprises choosing to shut down for maintenance may increase, and the market trading is expected to stagnate in mid - to late February. After the festival, attention should be paid to the resumption of work and production of downstream printing factories [21]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: The log market is weak. - **Logic**: The log market is affected by the suspension of delivery warehouses, but the fundamentals are loose. The valuation has increased, and the supply has decreased in the short term, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the medium term [23]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be range - bound. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring There is no specific data monitoring content provided in the report. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on February 9, 2026. - **Characteristic Index**: The commodity index increased by 0.70% to 2374.89, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.96% to 2710.51, the industrial products index increased by 0.21% to 2278.80, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.58% to 1404.35 [183]. - **Sector Index**: The agricultural product index on February 9, 2026 was 927.90, with a daily decline of 0.19%, a 5 - day decline of 0.56%, a 1 - month decline of 1.67%, and a year - to - date decline of 0.55% [184].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Views - The glass and soda ash markets are oscillating weakly with inventory accumulation and weak spot sales. The double - silicon market has insufficient supply - demand contradictions and is oscillating [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the glass futures oscillated weakly, and the spot market price remained stable with mediocre sales. This week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 53.064 million heavy cases, a 0.95% increase from the previous week [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: There are disturbances on the supply side, and production is expected to decrease. Rising coal prices have pushed up costs, and the inventory pressure on glass factories is not high, leading to a price rebound. However, the supply - demand is still loose, and the industry faces pressure without significant demand improvement. Attention should be paid to cold repairs of production lines and industrial policies [1]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the soda ash futures oscillated weakly, and the market was cautious. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases. This week, the soda ash inventory was 1.5811 million tons, a 1.33% increase from the previous week [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. After some alkali plants completed maintenance, supply increased. Considering new projects and the expected increase in cold repairs of float glass, the production profit of soda ash enterprises needs to be suppressed. Attention should be paid to changes in float glass production lines and new soda ash projects [1]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating weakly [2] Ferrosilicon Manganese - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon manganese futures oscillated. The spot market sentiment fluctuated with the futures, with strong wait - and - see sentiment. The price in the northern market was 5,590 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,720 - 5,770 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The fundamentals have improved, and there is an expected increase in hot metal production, leading to marginal improvement in demand. However, the inventory pressure is still large, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The South African tariff policy may increase manganese ore costs, and attention should be paid to cost support and inventory changes [3]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures oscillated. The spot price was stable, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly, mainly for rigid demand. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production area was 5,250 - 5,350 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade was 5,850 - 6,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is controllable. Enterprises have actively reduced production loads. With the resumption of steel mills, demand is expected to improve marginally. However, the overall over - capacity suppresses the price increase. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and power price policies in production areas [3]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the double-silicon futures market maintained a volatile trend, with narrowing price fluctuations, presenting a game between cost support under macro - policy guidance and fundamentals. The implementation of NDRC Document No. 114 on improving the capacity tariff mechanism for the power generation side may significantly raise the structural cost bottom of double - silicon. [5] - Macroscopically, domestically, there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year; overseas, the sharp rise and fall of gold prices have affected commodity sentiment, and Trump announced that Kevin Warsh will be the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. [5] - Microscopically, the molten iron output decreased slightly, and the steel mills' alloy restocking before the Spring Festival may have ended, resulting in weak support for raw material demand. [5] - Fundamentally, the logics of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remain differentiated. The supply of ferrosilicon has slightly increased, but the fundamental pressure is acceptable due to the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts. The supply of silicomanganese has declined due to production cuts in the southern region, but the upward space is significantly restricted by the substantial increase in warehouse - receipt inventory. Considering the increase in the inventory usage days brought by the pre - festival restocking of steel mills, the demand side still shows resilience. In the short term, the prices of double - silicon will maintain a range - bound oscillation between the expectation of rising costs and the actual inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the specific implementation of electricity price regulations in major production areas and the pace of post - festival demand recovery. [5] Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - This week, the price of the ferrosilicon 2603 contract fluctuated, closing at 5,652 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 788,860 lots and an open interest of 111,150 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 104,761 lots. [8] - This week, the price of the silicomanganese 2605 contract was firm, closing at 5,872 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 818,531 lots and an open interest of 361,914 lots, a week - on - week increase of 13,356 lots. [8] - This week, the spot prices of ferrosilicon in major regions across the country showed a slight upward trend. The aggregated quotation of 75B ferrosilicon in major production areas was 5,250 - 5,350 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of 0 - 50 yuan/ton. [9] - This week, the aggregated quotation range of silicomanganese spot in major regions across the country was 5,480 - 5,800 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of - 10 - 80 yuan/ton. [9] 2. Silicomanganese Fundamental Data Supply - The weekly output of silicomanganese was 192,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800 tons, with a change rate of - 0.4%. The weekly operating rate was 36.21%, unchanged from last week. The production reduction was mainly contributed by Inner Mongolia, with a contribution rate of 25%. [12][13] Demand - From the performance of downstream steel mills, the actual output of molten iron decreased slightly. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 85.47%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 227,980 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons. The output of building materials increased year - on - year and week - on - week, providing some support for the demand for silicomanganese. [20] Inventory - As of January 30, the inventory of 63 silicomanganese sample enterprises in the country was 373,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 300 tons. [27] - As of January 30, the number of silicomanganese warehouse receipts was 37,913, a week - on - week increase of 2,382, an increase of 11,910 tons, and the current converted inventory was 189,565 tons. [27] - In January, the average available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills was 17.48 days (+1.96 days), 15.1 days in the northern region (+1.31 days), 18.95 days in the eastern region (+1.43 days), and 20.91 days in the southern region (+4.64 days). [27] Manganese Ore - The global manganese ore shipment volume has returned to the previous high level, and the short - term supply - demand of manganese ore is in a weak balance. [31] - The manganese ore port clearance volume remains at a high level, and the pace of ore preparation may slow down before the Spring Festival. [32] - Overseas mining enterprises' quotations have increased, and the price of oxidized ore at the port has slightly loosened. [38] Cost and Profit - The cost center is relatively stable, and the futures market profit has increased with the market. [41] 3. Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data Supply - The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 98,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 29.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production increase was mainly contributed by Inner Mongolia, with a contribution rate of 100%. [45][46] Demand - The production of stainless - steel crude steel in December was 282,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,000 tons. The export volume of ferrosilicon in December was 33,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6%. [53] - From the performance of downstream steel mills, the actual output of molten iron decreased slightly. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 85.47%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 227,980 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons. The total output of magnesium metal in January was 90,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 28.2%. [58] Inventory - As of January 30, the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises in the country was 67,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 680 tons. [60] - As of January 30, the number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 8,560, a week - on - week decrease of 600, a decrease of 3,000 tons, and the current converted inventory was 42,800 tons. [60] - In January, the average available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills was 17.52 days (+2.11 days), 15.52 days in the northern region (+1.76 days), 18.43 days in the eastern region (+1.38 days), and 21.09 days in the southern region (+4.45 days). [60] Profit - The profit of ferrosilicon has increased with the market. Attention should be paid to the pre - festival operating rhythm of factories. [65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral, with a price range of 16,700 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain volatile. On the supply side, the production of primary lead is under pressure, and the overall production of secondary lead is also facing challenges. On the consumption side, battery consumption is weak, and the inventory of finished batteries continues to accumulate. In terms of trading strategies, considering the weak supply - demand pattern, shorting volatility can be considered [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, and Position - **Price and Spread** - The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 16,865 yuan/ton with a weekly decline of 1.35%, and the closing price of the overnight session yesterday was 16,940 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.44%. The price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 2,096.5 with a weekly increase of 3.02% [7] - LME lead basis was - 45.87, a decrease of 1.31 compared to the previous week; the premium of bonded lead remained unchanged at 95; the spot premium of Shanghai 1 lead increased by 20 to 45; the spread between secondary lead and primary lead increased by 75 to - 50 [7] - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract increased by 335 to 275; the cost of near - month to first - continuous inter - period arbitrage was 59.77 [7] - The spot import profit and loss of lead was - 658.93, a decrease of 76.80 compared to the previous week; the 3M import profit and loss of SHFE lead was - 623.95, a decrease of 127.41 compared to the previous week [7] - **Inventory** - SHFE lead warrant inventory increased by 1,452 to 29,418; SHFE total lead inventory increased by 1,233 to 30,584; social inventory increased by 1,600 to 36,100; LME lead inventory decreased by 9,600 to 205,575, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased by 4.00% to 9.06% [7] - **Transaction and Position** - The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 122,859, an increase of 85,430 compared to the previous week, and the position was 56,480, a decrease of 8,714 compared to the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 10,642, an increase of 5,448 compared to the previous week, and the position was 142,000, an increase of 6,194 compared to the previous week [7] 3.2 Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, and Secondary Lead - **Lead Concentrate** - The import volume, actual consumption, and domestic output of lead concentrate showed different trends in different years. The inventory of lead concentrate at Lianyungang also fluctuated over time [24] - The import TC and domestic TC of lead concentrate showed certain price ranges. The smelting profit of lead concentrate processing also changed over time [26][27] - The operating rate of lead concentrate showed different levels in different years [28] - **Primary Lead and Secondary Lead** - The production and weekly operating rate of primary lead and the combined production of primary and secondary lead, as well as the production and operating rate of secondary lead, all showed different trends in different years [30] - The by - product output of silver and the price of 1 silver, as well as the price of 98% sulfuric acid in East China, also had their own trends [32][33][34] - **Waste Battery and Secondary Lead** - The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost of secondary lead, and the profit and loss of secondary lead all changed over time [35][36][37] - **Import and Export** - The net import of refined lead, the monthly import volume of Chinese lead ingots, the import profit and loss of lead, and the export volume of lead ingots showed different trends in different years [39] 3.3 Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Battery and Terminal - **Battery** - The operating rate of lead - acid batteries, the monthly finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers, as well as the export volume of batteries, showed different trends in different years [43] - **Consumption and Terminal** - The actual consumption of lead, the monthly output of automobiles, and the monthly total output of motorcycles showed different trends in different years [45]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6] Group 2: Report Core Views - **Cotton**: The overall cotton market is recovering, but faces upward pressure. Short - term cotton prices are supported by pre - festival stocking, but are expected to fluctuate widely. Medium - to - long - term trends depend on the implementation of target price and area - reduction policies [1][2][3] - **Sugar**: Short - to - medium - term sugar prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. The market is influenced by factors such as Brazilian inventory, northern hemisphere exports, and Chinese import policies. Long - term sugar prices should not be overly pessimistic [4][5][6] - **Pulp**: Despite overseas supply disturbances and rising foreign quotes, domestic fundamentals have not improved significantly. Pulp prices are expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short term [6] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - **Market News and Key Data**: Cotton 2605 futures closed at 14,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-0.20%). Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,832 yuan/ton, up 214 yuan/ton. National average price was 16,103 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton. In November 2025, US clothing and apparel retail sales increased by 7.54% year - on - year and 0.88% month - on - month. The cumulative retail sales from January to November 2025 increased by 5.65% year - on - year [1] - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the USDA in January lowered global cotton production and ending stocks, but the global supply - demand pattern remains loose. US cotton export sign - up progress is slow, putting short - term pressure on ICE cotton. Domestically, China's cotton production in the 25/26 season increased significantly, and commercial inventories are rising seasonally. Pre - festival stocking led to good spot sales, but downstream new orders decreased, and finished - product inventory is high. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year [2] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Short - term prices are supported by pre - festival stocking, but face downstream transmission and price - difference pressures, expected to fluctuate widely. Medium - to - long - term trends depend on policy implementation [3] Sugar - **Market News and Key Data**: Sugar 2605 futures closed at 5,257 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (+1.35%). In Nanning, Guangxi, the spot price was 5,320 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. In Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,190 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. As of January 28, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 54, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 1.7826 million tons, up 0.1 million tons (0.56%) from the previous week [4] - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou sugar futures trended strongly. The tight trade flow in the first quarter supports raw sugar, while it will ease in the second quarter. In the long run, the market expects the sugar - making ratio in Brazil to decline in the 26/27 season, and Thailand's planting area may shrink. In China, Guangxi's sugar mills are in the peak - crushing period, and import pressure in the fourth quarter remains high. However, the import volume of syrup has decreased significantly. The domestic sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, with limited downward space [5] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Short - to - medium - term sugar prices should be treated with an oscillating - bottom - building mindset, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and capital disturbances [6] Pulp - **Market News and Key Data**: Pulp 2605 futures closed at 5,388 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.26%). In Shandong, the spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp was 5,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,965 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood - pulp spot market price was generally stable, with weak downstream follow - up [6] - **Market Analysis**: Pulp futures fluctuated narrowly. Supply - side factors such as overseas mill shutdowns and rising foreign quotes pushed up pulp prices, but the global wood - pulp inventory is still accumulating. In terms of demand, European port pulp inventory decreased in November, and domestic terminal demand is insufficient, with port inventory at a historical high [6] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Despite overseas supply disruptions and rising foreign quotes, domestic fundamentals have not improved, and pulp prices are expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short term [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of iron ore are expected to oscillate due to the game between expectations and reality [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to have wide - range oscillations [2][7]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide - range oscillations with cost as the bottom support [2][11]. - Coke has completed the first round of price increase and is expected to oscillate within a range; coking coal is expected to oscillate within a range [2][15][16]. - The supply and demand of thermal coal are both weakening, and the coal price is slightly rising [2][20]. - Logs are expected to oscillate within a range [2][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of futures I2605 was 783.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton (-0.63%); the positions decreased by 6,440. Among spot prices, most imported and domestic ores declined slightly, and the basis increased slightly [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December industrial enterprise profits above designated size increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual profit increased by 0.6%. Some real - estate enterprises are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 futures were 3,123 yuan/ton and 3,280 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 0.32% and 0.39%. The positions of RB2605 increased by 29,747, and those of HC2605 increased by 9,222. Spot prices in most regions decreased or remained unchanged, and the basis and spreads changed to varying degrees [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In December, the output of medium - thick plate rolling mills of key enterprises increased year - on - year, while that of hot - continuous and cold - continuous rolling mills decreased. In January 2026, the daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased, while that of pig iron and steel increased. The steel inventory of key enterprises increased. The social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased slightly. BHP's first - half iron ore output hit a record high, and it accepted partial price cuts. An explosion occurred at Baotou Steel's plate plant. China's steel imports in December 2025 increased in quantity and price. Some steel products are subject to export license management [7][9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coils, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of SiFe2603 and SiFe2605 were 5,632 and 5,606 respectively; the closing prices of SiMn2603 and SiMn2605 were 5,802 and 5,832 respectively. Spot prices and various spreads changed to different extents [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 28, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. The start - up rates and production of ferrosilicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Qinghai changed. Some steel mills determined the procurement prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1,134.5 yuan/ton, up 1.6%; the closing price of J2605 was 1,684 yuan/ton, up 1.0%. Spot prices of most coking coals and cokes remained unchanged, and the basis and spreads changed [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 28, the CCI metallurgical coal index was reported. The online coking coal auction had a 27% non - sale rate, and the market sentiment cooled down [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [19]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamentals**: The prices of thermal coal in production areas, ports, and overseas showed different degrees of change. The January long - term agreement prices of some regions decreased [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 28, the port market price was firm, with a slight increase in upstream quotes, but downstream demand was weak. The production area market was stable and slightly strong. In December 2025, China's coal production increased month - on - month, and the coal import volume in December 2025 exceeded expectations [22]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts changed to different degrees. The spot prices of most logs remained stable, and the spreads also changed [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December industrial enterprise profits above designated size increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual profit increased by 0.6%. Some real - estate enterprises are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. The price is significantly supported by the double reduction in supply and demand, combined with the transmission effect of rising coal prices and photovoltaic industry chain prices. The upward potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory clearance progress, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production reduction expectations [3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to rise slightly with small fluctuations. The recent cancellation of the export tax rebate policy for the photovoltaic industry may stimulate polysilicon rush exports in the short term. However, due to the still sluggish demand and huge inventory, the price increase momentum is limited. The market is moving towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and the downstream production capacity is accelerating the clearance [6]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On January 27, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,895 yuan/ton and closed at 8,860 yuan/ton, a change of (-70) yuan/ton or (-0.78)% compared to the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the position of the main contract 2605 was 242,625 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on January 26, 2026, was 13,115 lots, a change of 144 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 (0) yuan/ton, the price of Xinjiang oxygenated 553 was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - As of January 22, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 556,000 tons, an increase of 0.18% compared to the previous week [1]. - The supply side showed a contraction trend, with the January output decreasing by nearly 20% month-on-month, and the industry operating rate dropping to a historical low [2]. - The demand side: The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 13,800 - 14,000 (0) yuan/ton. The recent cancellation of the photovoltaic VAT export tax rebate policy is expected to increase the short-term demand for polysilicon, and the strong polysilicon exports are expected to boost the demand side of industrial silicon. The operating rate of aluminum-silicon alloy enterprises decreased slightly, and the organic silicon maintained the peak-shifting emission reduction policy. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed a marginal weakening trend, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be mainly stable and weak [2]. Polysilicon - On January 27, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated and rose, opening at 51,990 yuan/ton and closing at 51,900 yuan/ton, a change of 0.42% in the closing price compared to the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 41,439 (41,290 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 11,224 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N-type material was 48.00 - 57.00 (-1.50) yuan/kg, and the price of n-type granular silicon was 48.00 - 51.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg [3]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 33.00, a change of 2.80% month-on-month, the silicon wafer inventory was 26.78GW, a change of 8.07% month-on-month, the weekly polysilicon output was 20,500.00 tons, a change of -4.65% month-on-month, and the silicon wafer output was 10.86GW, a change of 0.28% month-on-month [3]. - In terms of silicon wafers: The price of domestic N-type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.30 (-0.03) yuan/piece, the price of N-type 210mm was 1.63 (-0.03) yuan/piece, and the price of N-type 210R silicon wafers was 1.40 (-0.03) yuan/piece [3]. - In terms of battery cells: The price of high-efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon 210RN battery cells was 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W. The price of HJT210 half-cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [4][5]. - In terms of components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of N-type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of N-type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.77 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short-term range operation. - Inter - period: None. - Options: None [3]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short-term range operation, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight oscillatory rise in the short term. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term policy vacuum period due to the confrontation between industrial and secondary market funds. The key to breaking the deadlock lies in the implementation of Indonesian policies in the first quarter, especially the quota policy. For trading, it is recommended to consider options, and pay attention to structural opportunities. [4][5] - For stainless steel, the expectation of increased supply and weak demand in the off - season exerts pressure, while the cost center moves up due to the increase in ferronickel cost. Attention should be paid to the variables in Indonesian nickel ore policies. [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 News Affecting the Nickel Market - **Quota Event**: On January 8, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources stated that the quota would be adjusted according to industry demand. On January 14, it was mentioned that the target might be cut to 260 million tons of nickel ore quota. The policy for 2026 is still under review, and it is expected that specific policies will be clarified in the first quarter. If the 260 - million - ton quota is implemented, it may lead to a shortage in the ore end and impact high inventories. [1] - **伴生 Mineral Event**: Indonesia wants to include associated minerals such as cobalt in the pricing and taxation system. If cobalt is priced, the direct cost of pyrometallurgy and hydrometallurgy may increase by about 5% - 10%. [2] - **违规 Fine Event**: Multiple companies in Indonesia are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land. The final fine may be lower than the initial estimate. If the fine is implemented, it may indirectly lead to higher ore prices. [2] - **Other Events**: In early 2026, Vale suspended its nickel mining business but later resumed normal operations after obtaining the 2026 mining quota approval. It is speculated that Indonesia may favor hydrometallurgical projects. [3] 3.2 Market Outlook 3.2.1 Nickel - Industrial players focus on the weak fundamentals of nickel, with over - supply pressure and expectations of low - cost hydrometallurgical production. They mainly adopt a strategy of selling at high prices for hedging. Secondary market funds expect policy changes in Indonesia and tend to go long at low prices in the long - term. In the short - term, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and the key lies in the implementation of Indonesian policies in the first quarter. [4][5] 3.2.2 Stainless Steel - The expectation of increased supply and weak demand in the off - season puts pressure on stainless steel. However, the increase in ferronickel cost due to various factors in Indonesia may push up the cost of stainless steel. The cost logic may cause the stainless steel price to oscillate with a higher center, but the marginal increase in supply and weak demand still have a drag effect. [6] 3.3 Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: On January 15, China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 102 tons to 60,587 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 942 tons to 285,732 tons. [7] - **新能源**: On January 16, the inventory days of upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of SMM nickel sulfate increased slightly month - on - month. The precursor inventory and ternary material inventory also increased month - on - month. [7] - **Nickel - Iron - Stainless Steel**: On January 15, the full - industry chain inventory of SMM nickel - iron decreased by 2% month - on - month to 131,000 metal tons. Stainless steel factory inventory decreased in December, and the social inventory of stainless steel decreased week - on - week on January 15. [7] 3.4 Market News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for projects producing certain nickel - related products. [8] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have implemented export license management for some steel products since January 1, 2026. [8] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources would revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection. [8] - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons. [10]