Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, with potential for price increases due to limited supply and incremental demand, despite short - term downward pressure from inventory and geopolitical factors [1] - Aluminum is expected to perform relatively strongly in the metal sector due to supply damage and high energy dependence, despite overall pressure on non - ferrous metals [1] - Zinc has weak short - term support under the background of recession expectations, but long - term supply may be tight [4] - Nickel is expected to trade in a range, influenced by bearish fundamentals and bullish supply - side policy interventions [6] - Stainless steel is expected to follow nickel and trade in a range, with a generally weak fundamental situation [8] - Lead is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, affected by overseas inventory and recycled lead profit [10] - Tin's price is highly affected by global macro - liquidity. It has strong upward potential if liquidity is loose, but large downward space if liquidity tightens [14] - Industrial silicon's price is expected to fluctuate with cost in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term due to over - capacity [17] - Lithium carbonate's future price movement depends on factors such as the speed of warehouse receipt clearance and Zimbabwe's export policy, with the short - term market driven by macro factors [19] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated downward, mainly due to macro - geopolitical disturbances. The supply of scrap copper is tight, and the substitution demand for electrolytic copper is increasing, which may lead to further depletion of refined copper inventory. The report maintains a bullish view on copper in the medium - term and suggests paying attention to the support at 93,000 - 96,000 [1] Aluminum - Affected by the Iran crisis, some aluminum production capacity in the Middle East is affected. The external market is stronger than the domestic market, and the overall non - ferrous metals are under pressure. However, aluminum is expected to perform strongly in the metal sector due to supply damage and high energy dependence [1] Zinc - The medium - term supply of zinc ore is expected to be tight. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory has accumulated above 250,000 tons. The short - term support is weak under the background of recession expectations [4] Nickel - The short - term fundamental situation is weak, with domestic inventory accumulation and slight de - stocking in LME. With supply - side policy interventions, nickel prices are expected to trade in a range [6] Stainless Steel - The supply has decreased slightly, the demand is gradually recovering, and the cost has increased. The inventory has decreased slightly this week. It is expected to follow nickel and trade in a range [8] Lead - The primary lead production is resuming, while the recycled lead production is delayed. The terminal demand is weak, and the social inventory has decreased by nearly 10,000 tons this week. The lead price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [10] Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated downward, facing great pressure due to liquidity concerns. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is highly affected by global macro - liquidity [14] Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand are close to balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate with cost. In the long - term, due to over - capacity, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [17] Lithium Carbonate - In March, the de - stocking speed has slowed down, and the market is mainly driven by macro factors. The future price movement depends on factors such as the speed of warehouse receipt clearance and Zimbabwe's export policy [19]

Group 1: Steel Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The inventory inflection point of steel has emerged, and steel prices will fluctuate widely. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but inventory pressure remains a key factor restricting steel prices. The price will follow raw material fluctuations in the short term, and attention should be paid to the peak - season inventory depletion and raw material price changes [1]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures main contract oscillated. The national building materials transaction volume was 88,800 tons, and the spot transaction was weak with strong market wait - and - see sentiment. This week's data shows that steel inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, building materials production and sales increased significantly, and hot - rolled coil production and sales increased slightly [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials maintain a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory slightly higher than the same period. Plate production is relatively high, and demand is also resilient, but inventory pressure is greater than that of building materials. The improvement of steel supply - demand in the peak season and the inventory depletion amplitude will affect prices. The deterioration of the Middle - East situation indirectly supports the bottom of steel prices [1]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for steel is a unilateral oscillation, with no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [2]. Group 2: Iron Ore Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - External stimuli have eased, and iron ore prices will oscillate and correct. In the short term, the supply pressure of iron ore has increased, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly intensified. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is loose, and high inventory suppresses price performance [3]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price fell slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports decreased slightly. Traders' quotes mostly followed the market, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 518,000 tons, a 10.69% decrease compared to the previous period [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: High ore prices have continuously stimulated iron ore supply, and the liquidity of some iron ore at ports has been released. After the end of steel mill production restrictions, molten iron production will increase. The short - term supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is not obvious, and high inventory will continue to suppress prices. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation, non - mainstream iron ore shipments, iron ore inventory, and negotiation progress [3]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for iron ore is a unilateral oscillation, with no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [4]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The sentiment affects the market, and coking coal and coke prices will oscillate. The supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the downstream raw material inventory is high, which suppresses purchasing enthusiasm. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is limited, and the price is relatively stable in the short term [5][6]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal and coke futures oscillated. Some coal varieties in the production area were affected by the price increase in the external market, and the market sentiment improved. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was stable at around 1,100 yuan/ton. The spot market of coke at ports was stable, and the trading atmosphere in the domestic trade spot market was average [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, domestic coal mine复产 has accelerated, and the supply is relatively loose. The high downstream raw material inventory suppresses purchasing enthusiasm, so coking coal will oscillate in the short term. For coke, the coking profit is acceptable, coke enterprises have resumed production one after another, and steel mills will also increase production steadily later. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is limited, and the price is relatively stable in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Middle - East situation on coal price sentiment [6]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for coking coal and coke is a unilateral oscillation, with no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [7]. Group 4: Thermal Coal Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market sentiment has improved, and thermal coal prices have rebounded. The supply of coal is increasing, while consumption is weakening due to seasonal factors. The price will oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [8]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The prices of some pit - mouth coal in the main production areas have stabilized and increased, and the port coal prices are basically the same. Affected by the price increase in the external market, the market sentiment has improved, and some terminals and intermediate traders have replenished their inventories. The demand for low - calorie coal at ports is better than that for medium - and high - calorie coal, and the overall inquiry demand has increased. The import cost of imported coal is seriously inverted, and downstream tenders have decreased [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The coal supply is increasing after the end of the Two Sessions, while consumption is weakening due to seasonal factors. The short - term increase in oil and gas prices has not been fully transmitted to coal, so non - power coal demand in the off - season has a greater impact on coal supply and demand. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [8]. - **Strategy**: Not provided

Report Summary - **Report Title**: Morning Report - Coking Coal and Coke [1] - **Report Date**: February 26, 2026 - **Report Industry**: Coking coal and coke industry Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoint - During the important national meeting, steel mills are expected to implement phased emission reduction controls, putting pressure on the rigid demand for coking coal and other furnace materials. The mining end is in the resumption stage, and the supply-demand mismatch may cause the prices of coking coal and coke to be weaker than those of finished products [3] Summary by Related Catalog Market Driving Factors - Shanghai issued the "Seven Measures for the Housing Market" to further reduce housing purchase restrictions, stimulating the sentiment of the real estate-related sectors and leading to the rise of coking coal, coke, and steel futures prices. Some steel enterprises in North China have received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the important national meeting from March 4th to March 11th, which has made the price rebound of coking coal and coke weak [3] Supply Side - This week, coal mines have officially entered the peak period of resumption of production, with most private coal mines starting to resume production. The daily production of raw coal and clean coal this week is 1.516 million tons and 0.649 million tons respectively, an increase of 0.43 million tons and 0.19 million tons compared with the previous week. At the import end, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased before the Spring Festival, and the port was temporarily closed during the festival. It has now resumed customs clearance, with a customs clearance volume of about 0.18 million tons on February 23rd, and the inventory in the port supervision area is still at a high level [3] Demand Side - Currently, the average daily hot metal output of steel mills' blast furnaces is about 2.3 million tons. In the short term, affected by the environmental protection and emission reduction policy, the growth rhythm of hot metal output may slow down [3] Inventory Situation - During the Spring Festival, logistics and transportation were affected, and the turnover efficiency of goods decreased. Downstream enterprises mainly consumed the raw material inventory in the factory. Some coking enterprises were restricted in the outward transportation of coke, resulting in an increase in the inventory in the factory [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain range-bound oscillations. With significant contraction on the supply side, there is obvious price support, but high inventories of polysilicon always suppress demand, and prices lack upward momentum. In the context of weak supply and demand, attention should be paid to the resumption plans of large factories after the Spring Festival and changes in capital sentiment. The upside potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and the progress of inventory depletion, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [1][3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to oscillate. Although the supply side contracted significantly in February, providing support for prices, the demand side remains sluggish due to downstream cost constraints, and the large inventory is being depleted slowly, suppressing price increases. There is no obvious driving force for the "rush to export" phenomenon before April, and we are waiting for the supply - demand game. After the Spring Festival, silicon wafer enterprises resumed work, but inventory pressure still exists, and the recent sharp rise in international silver prices has increased the cost pressure on battery manufacturers. In the short term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand recovery after the Spring Festival, and in the medium - to - long term, the trend of silver prices and the progress of inventory depletion need to be monitored [3][5]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On February 24, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and rose. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,475 yuan/ton and closed at 8,410 yuan/ton, a change of 45 yuan/ton (0.54%) from the previous day's settlement. At the close, the position of the 2605 main contract was 293,851 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on February 23, 2026, was 19,977 lots, a change of 456 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,400 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, the price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, the Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1]. - SMM statistics show that the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on February 12 was 557,000 tons, a decrease of 0.89% from the previous week [1]. - On the consumption side, according to SMM statistics, the quoted price of silicone DMC was 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the demand for downstream polysilicon, silicone, and aluminum alloy all decreased to varying degrees, and after the festival, most inquiries were tentative [1]. - The supply side contracted in tandem with the demand side. Large factories cut production, and the marginal output in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan decreased [1]. Polysilicon - On February 24, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated and declined, opening at 48,505 yuan/ton and closing at 47,000 yuan/ton, a change of - 4.03% in the closing price from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 37,729 lots (36,844 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on that day was 8,503 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon declined. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 48.50 - 57.50 yuan/kg (- 0.25 yuan/kg), and the price of n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg (0.00 yuan/kg) [3]. - According to SMM statistics, polysilicon manufacturer inventories increased, and silicon wafer inventories increased. The latest statistics show that polysilicon inventory was 349,000 tons, a month - on - month change of 2.30%, silicon wafer inventory was 30.06 GW, a month - on - month change of 6.14%. The weekly output of polysilicon was 20,100 tons, a month - on - month change of 0.00%, and the silicon wafer output was 10.05 GW, a month - on - month change of - 3.18% [3][4]. - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.13 yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm was 1.43 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.23 yuan/piece [4]. - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W; the price of PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 yuan/W; the price of Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.44 yuan/W; the price of Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.44 yuan/W (- 0.01 yuan/W); the price of Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.44 yuan/W. The price of HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 yuan/W [4]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of N - type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.77 yuan/W [4]. Strategy Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to maintain a small - scale oscillation in the short term - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3][5][6] Project Information - Recently, the Quzhou Ecological Environment Bureau released a public notice on the proposed approval of the environmental impact report of the annual production project of 30,800 tons of high - performance silicone adhesive new materials by Zhejiang Yonggao New Materials Co., Ltd. The project will add 50 mu of land, with a total investment of 326 million yuan. It will produce 7,000 tons of hard board glue, 500 tons of MQ silicone resin, 20,000 tons of high - temperature - resistant electronic glue, 300 tons of silicone optical glue, and 3,000 tons of silicone pressure - sensitive glue annually, with annual by - products of 2,000 tons of hydrochloric acid and 400 tons of sodium chloride [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the Spring Festival approaches, most varieties in the agricultural sector are volatile. Oils and fats, protein meals, corn, natural rubber, cotton, and pulp are expected to fluctuate, while live pigs and sugar prices are likely to be weak. Synthetic rubber is expected to be moderately strong, and logs are expected to be range - bound [1]. - The overall supply of oilseeds such as soybeans and rapeseeds is relatively loose, and palm oil is about to enter the destocking trend. The demand side should focus on biodiesel policies and export performance in the producing areas. Recently, the market has been intertwined with long and short factors, and oils and fats are expected to fluctuate [4]. - Near the Spring Festival, downstream stocking is basically completed, trading is light, and the protein meal market is expected to fluctuate [6]. - Near the Spring Festival, the trading of corn is light, and the price is expected to be weak. After the festival, attention should be paid to the rhythm of traders' delivery, restocking, and inventory building [8][9]. - The supply of live pigs is loose, and the price is weak. The downward cycle has not ended, but the industry's destocking process is blocked and needs further observation [10]. - The fundamentals of natural rubber are relatively weak, but the expectation is good. The market is expected to fluctuate due to increased capital attention [14]. - The improvement of the supply - demand pattern of butadiene is relatively certain, but it needs adjustment in the short term and is expected to be moderately strong in the medium term [17]. - Before the Spring Festival, cotton is expected to fluctuate. After the festival, the terminal demand is expected to pick up, and the price center of gravity is expected to rise [17]. - In the medium and long term, the sugar price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. The new sugar - making season is expected to have an oversupply in the global sugar market, and the price has a downward driving force [18]. - The pulp futures are still weak, and the spot market is difficult to improve before the Spring Festival. After the festival, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and it is expected to fluctuate [19]. - The double - gum paper market is expected to fluctuate weakly before the Spring Festival, and the market trading is expected to stagnate in mid - to late February. After the festival, attention should be paid to the resumption of work and production of downstream printing factories [21]. - The log market is expected to be range - bound. In the short term, there is no new driving force, and the fundamentals remain loose [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Oils and fats fluctuate narrowly. - **Information**: As of the end of the 6th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 1974,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 19,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.60%. - **Logic**: Near the Spring Festival, the market sentiment is wait - and - see, and the oils and fats fluctuate narrowly. The expectation of destocking of palm oil is weakening, and the soybean market is affected by trade negotiations and bio - diesel policies [4]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: The trading of double - meals is light, and the market fluctuates. - **Logic**: The market's expectation of China's increased procurement of US soybeans has cooled, and the supply peak of Brazilian soybeans is coming. In China, the oil mills are shutting down, and the logistics is stagnating. After the festival, the cost of imported soybeans is expected to decrease, and the spot and basis of soybean meal are expected to be weak [6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: Near the Spring Festival, the trading of corn is light, and the price is expected to be weak. - **Information**: The FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2340 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract is 2274 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. - **Logic**: Near the Spring Festival, the downstream stocking is coming to an end, and the trading is inactive. After the festival, the selling pressure may increase, and the demand is lackluster. The supply of substitute grains and imported grains may suppress the price of domestic corn [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The supply of live pigs is loose, and the price is weak. - **Price**: On February 9, the national average price of live pigs was 11.71 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85%. The closing price of live pig futures (active contract) was 11,565 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. - **Logic**: In the short term, the slaughter is increasing. In the medium term, the supply will be excessive until April 2026. In the long term, the industry's destocking process is blocked. The demand is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be weak [10]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Before the Spring Festival, it is mainly range - bound. - **Information**: The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 15,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials in Thailand's Hoh Ai market has increased. - **Logic**: The rubber price has increased slightly, maintaining a range - bound trend. The fundamentals are weak, but the expectation is good. The supply is abundant, and the demand is supported by tire enterprises' procurement, but the inventory is increasing rapidly [12][14]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the short - term support strength. - **Information**: The spot price of butadiene rubber has decreased, and the domestic spot price of butadiene has increased. - **Logic**: The BR market first rose and then fell, and the support at the 12,500 yuan/ton mark is strong. The supply of butadiene is expected to be tight in the first half of 2026, and the market sentiment affects the price, but the downside space is limited [16][17]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be moderately strong in the medium term. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: It is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival. - **Information**: On February 6, the closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 05 contract was 14,580 yuan/ton. - **Logic**: The processing and inspection of new cotton are coming to an end, and the demand is improving, but the textile factories are shutting down for the holiday. The market risk preference is decreasing, and the macro - sentiment is weakening. After the festival, the demand is expected to pick up [17]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be moderately strong in the medium and long term. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar production in Brazil has entered the end, and the sugar price is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium and long term. - **Information**: On February 9, the closing price of Zhengzhou Sugar 05 contract was 5261 yuan/ton. As of the first half of January in the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar production in central and southern Brazil was 40.236 million tons, an increase of 345,000 tons year - on - year. - **Logic**: In the medium and long term, the sugar price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. The global sugar market is expected to have an oversupply in the new sugar - making season, and the supply of major producing countries is expected to increase [18]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The pulp futures are still weak, and the spot market is difficult to improve before the Spring Festival. - **Information**: The price of coniferous pulp in Shandong has not changed. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the terminal and downstream are on holiday. After the festival, the demand is expected to recover seasonally. The bottom support of the pulp futures has weakened, and the downside space is limited [19]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate. 3.1.10 Double - Gum Paper - **Viewpoint**: The double - gum paper market fluctuates narrowly at a low level. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the trading is expected to decrease, and the market is stable. In February, the number of enterprises choosing to shut down for maintenance may increase, and the market trading is expected to stagnate in mid - to late February. After the festival, attention should be paid to the resumption of work and production of downstream printing factories [21]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: The log market is weak. - **Logic**: The log market is affected by the suspension of delivery warehouses, but the fundamentals are loose. The valuation has increased, and the supply has decreased in the short term, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the medium term [23]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be range - bound. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring There is no specific data monitoring content provided in the report. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on February 9, 2026. - **Characteristic Index**: The commodity index increased by 0.70% to 2374.89, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.96% to 2710.51, the industrial products index increased by 0.21% to 2278.80, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.58% to 1404.35 [183]. - **Sector Index**: The agricultural product index on February 9, 2026 was 927.90, with a daily decline of 0.19%, a 5 - day decline of 0.56%, a 1 - month decline of 1.67%, and a year - to - date decline of 0.55% [184].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Views - The glass and soda ash markets are oscillating weakly with inventory accumulation and weak spot sales. The double - silicon market has insufficient supply - demand contradictions and is oscillating [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the glass futures oscillated weakly, and the spot market price remained stable with mediocre sales. This week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 53.064 million heavy cases, a 0.95% increase from the previous week [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: There are disturbances on the supply side, and production is expected to decrease. Rising coal prices have pushed up costs, and the inventory pressure on glass factories is not high, leading to a price rebound. However, the supply - demand is still loose, and the industry faces pressure without significant demand improvement. Attention should be paid to cold repairs of production lines and industrial policies [1]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the soda ash futures oscillated weakly, and the market was cautious. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases. This week, the soda ash inventory was 1.5811 million tons, a 1.33% increase from the previous week [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. After some alkali plants completed maintenance, supply increased. Considering new projects and the expected increase in cold repairs of float glass, the production profit of soda ash enterprises needs to be suppressed. Attention should be paid to changes in float glass production lines and new soda ash projects [1]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating weakly [2] Ferrosilicon Manganese - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon manganese futures oscillated. The spot market sentiment fluctuated with the futures, with strong wait - and - see sentiment. The price in the northern market was 5,590 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,720 - 5,770 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The fundamentals have improved, and there is an expected increase in hot metal production, leading to marginal improvement in demand. However, the inventory pressure is still large, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The South African tariff policy may increase manganese ore costs, and attention should be paid to cost support and inventory changes [3]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures oscillated. The spot price was stable, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly, mainly for rigid demand. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production area was 5,250 - 5,350 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade was 5,850 - 6,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is controllable. Enterprises have actively reduced production loads. With the resumption of steel mills, demand is expected to improve marginally. However, the overall over - capacity suppresses the price increase. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and power price policies in production areas [3]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the double-silicon futures market maintained a volatile trend, with narrowing price fluctuations, presenting a game between cost support under macro - policy guidance and fundamentals. The implementation of NDRC Document No. 114 on improving the capacity tariff mechanism for the power generation side may significantly raise the structural cost bottom of double - silicon. [5] - Macroscopically, domestically, there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year; overseas, the sharp rise and fall of gold prices have affected commodity sentiment, and Trump announced that Kevin Warsh will be the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. [5] - Microscopically, the molten iron output decreased slightly, and the steel mills' alloy restocking before the Spring Festival may have ended, resulting in weak support for raw material demand. [5] - Fundamentally, the logics of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remain differentiated. The supply of ferrosilicon has slightly increased, but the fundamental pressure is acceptable due to the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts. The supply of silicomanganese has declined due to production cuts in the southern region, but the upward space is significantly restricted by the substantial increase in warehouse - receipt inventory. Considering the increase in the inventory usage days brought by the pre - festival restocking of steel mills, the demand side still shows resilience. In the short term, the prices of double - silicon will maintain a range - bound oscillation between the expectation of rising costs and the actual inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the specific implementation of electricity price regulations in major production areas and the pace of post - festival demand recovery. [5] Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - This week, the price of the ferrosilicon 2603 contract fluctuated, closing at 5,652 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 788,860 lots and an open interest of 111,150 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 104,761 lots. [8] - This week, the price of the silicomanganese 2605 contract was firm, closing at 5,872 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 818,531 lots and an open interest of 361,914 lots, a week - on - week increase of 13,356 lots. [8] - This week, the spot prices of ferrosilicon in major regions across the country showed a slight upward trend. The aggregated quotation of 75B ferrosilicon in major production areas was 5,250 - 5,350 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of 0 - 50 yuan/ton. [9] - This week, the aggregated quotation range of silicomanganese spot in major regions across the country was 5,480 - 5,800 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of - 10 - 80 yuan/ton. [9] 2. Silicomanganese Fundamental Data Supply - The weekly output of silicomanganese was 192,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800 tons, with a change rate of - 0.4%. The weekly operating rate was 36.21%, unchanged from last week. The production reduction was mainly contributed by Inner Mongolia, with a contribution rate of 25%. [12][13] Demand - From the performance of downstream steel mills, the actual output of molten iron decreased slightly. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 85.47%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 227,980 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons. The output of building materials increased year - on - year and week - on - week, providing some support for the demand for silicomanganese. [20] Inventory - As of January 30, the inventory of 63 silicomanganese sample enterprises in the country was 373,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 300 tons. [27] - As of January 30, the number of silicomanganese warehouse receipts was 37,913, a week - on - week increase of 2,382, an increase of 11,910 tons, and the current converted inventory was 189,565 tons. [27] - In January, the average available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills was 17.48 days (+1.96 days), 15.1 days in the northern region (+1.31 days), 18.95 days in the eastern region (+1.43 days), and 20.91 days in the southern region (+4.64 days). [27] Manganese Ore - The global manganese ore shipment volume has returned to the previous high level, and the short - term supply - demand of manganese ore is in a weak balance. [31] - The manganese ore port clearance volume remains at a high level, and the pace of ore preparation may slow down before the Spring Festival. [32] - Overseas mining enterprises' quotations have increased, and the price of oxidized ore at the port has slightly loosened. [38] Cost and Profit - The cost center is relatively stable, and the futures market profit has increased with the market. [41] 3. Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data Supply - The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 98,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 29.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production increase was mainly contributed by Inner Mongolia, with a contribution rate of 100%. [45][46] Demand - The production of stainless - steel crude steel in December was 282,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,000 tons. The export volume of ferrosilicon in December was 33,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6%. [53] - From the performance of downstream steel mills, the actual output of molten iron decreased slightly. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 85.47%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 227,980 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons. The total output of magnesium metal in January was 90,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 28.2%. [58] Inventory - As of January 30, the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises in the country was 67,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 680 tons. [60] - As of January 30, the number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 8,560, a week - on - week decrease of 600, a decrease of 3,000 tons, and the current converted inventory was 42,800 tons. [60] - In January, the average available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills was 17.52 days (+2.11 days), 15.52 days in the northern region (+1.76 days), 18.43 days in the eastern region (+1.38 days), and 21.09 days in the southern region (+4.45 days). [60] Profit - The profit of ferrosilicon has increased with the market. Attention should be paid to the pre - festival operating rhythm of factories. [65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral, with a price range of 16,700 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain volatile. On the supply side, the production of primary lead is under pressure, and the overall production of secondary lead is also facing challenges. On the consumption side, battery consumption is weak, and the inventory of finished batteries continues to accumulate. In terms of trading strategies, considering the weak supply - demand pattern, shorting volatility can be considered [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, and Position - **Price and Spread** - The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 16,865 yuan/ton with a weekly decline of 1.35%, and the closing price of the overnight session yesterday was 16,940 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.44%. The price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 2,096.5 with a weekly increase of 3.02% [7] - LME lead basis was - 45.87, a decrease of 1.31 compared to the previous week; the premium of bonded lead remained unchanged at 95; the spot premium of Shanghai 1 lead increased by 20 to 45; the spread between secondary lead and primary lead increased by 75 to - 50 [7] - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract increased by 335 to 275; the cost of near - month to first - continuous inter - period arbitrage was 59.77 [7] - The spot import profit and loss of lead was - 658.93, a decrease of 76.80 compared to the previous week; the 3M import profit and loss of SHFE lead was - 623.95, a decrease of 127.41 compared to the previous week [7] - **Inventory** - SHFE lead warrant inventory increased by 1,452 to 29,418; SHFE total lead inventory increased by 1,233 to 30,584; social inventory increased by 1,600 to 36,100; LME lead inventory decreased by 9,600 to 205,575, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased by 4.00% to 9.06% [7] - **Transaction and Position** - The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 122,859, an increase of 85,430 compared to the previous week, and the position was 56,480, a decrease of 8,714 compared to the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 10,642, an increase of 5,448 compared to the previous week, and the position was 142,000, an increase of 6,194 compared to the previous week [7] 3.2 Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, and Secondary Lead - **Lead Concentrate** - The import volume, actual consumption, and domestic output of lead concentrate showed different trends in different years. The inventory of lead concentrate at Lianyungang also fluctuated over time [24] - The import TC and domestic TC of lead concentrate showed certain price ranges. The smelting profit of lead concentrate processing also changed over time [26][27] - The operating rate of lead concentrate showed different levels in different years [28] - **Primary Lead and Secondary Lead** - The production and weekly operating rate of primary lead and the combined production of primary and secondary lead, as well as the production and operating rate of secondary lead, all showed different trends in different years [30] - The by - product output of silver and the price of 1 silver, as well as the price of 98% sulfuric acid in East China, also had their own trends [32][33][34] - **Waste Battery and Secondary Lead** - The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost of secondary lead, and the profit and loss of secondary lead all changed over time [35][36][37] - **Import and Export** - The net import of refined lead, the monthly import volume of Chinese lead ingots, the import profit and loss of lead, and the export volume of lead ingots showed different trends in different years [39] 3.3 Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Battery and Terminal - **Battery** - The operating rate of lead - acid batteries, the monthly finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers, as well as the export volume of batteries, showed different trends in different years [43] - **Consumption and Terminal** - The actual consumption of lead, the monthly output of automobiles, and the monthly total output of motorcycles showed different trends in different years [45]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6] Group 2: Report Core Views - **Cotton**: The overall cotton market is recovering, but faces upward pressure. Short - term cotton prices are supported by pre - festival stocking, but are expected to fluctuate widely. Medium - to - long - term trends depend on the implementation of target price and area - reduction policies [1][2][3] - **Sugar**: Short - to - medium - term sugar prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. The market is influenced by factors such as Brazilian inventory, northern hemisphere exports, and Chinese import policies. Long - term sugar prices should not be overly pessimistic [4][5][6] - **Pulp**: Despite overseas supply disturbances and rising foreign quotes, domestic fundamentals have not improved significantly. Pulp prices are expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short term [6] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - **Market News and Key Data**: Cotton 2605 futures closed at 14,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-0.20%). Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,832 yuan/ton, up 214 yuan/ton. National average price was 16,103 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton. In November 2025, US clothing and apparel retail sales increased by 7.54% year - on - year and 0.88% month - on - month. The cumulative retail sales from January to November 2025 increased by 5.65% year - on - year [1] - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the USDA in January lowered global cotton production and ending stocks, but the global supply - demand pattern remains loose. US cotton export sign - up progress is slow, putting short - term pressure on ICE cotton. Domestically, China's cotton production in the 25/26 season increased significantly, and commercial inventories are rising seasonally. Pre - festival stocking led to good spot sales, but downstream new orders decreased, and finished - product inventory is high. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year [2] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Short - term prices are supported by pre - festival stocking, but face downstream transmission and price - difference pressures, expected to fluctuate widely. Medium - to - long - term trends depend on policy implementation [3] Sugar - **Market News and Key Data**: Sugar 2605 futures closed at 5,257 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (+1.35%). In Nanning, Guangxi, the spot price was 5,320 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. In Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,190 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. As of January 28, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 54, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 1.7826 million tons, up 0.1 million tons (0.56%) from the previous week [4] - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou sugar futures trended strongly. The tight trade flow in the first quarter supports raw sugar, while it will ease in the second quarter. In the long run, the market expects the sugar - making ratio in Brazil to decline in the 26/27 season, and Thailand's planting area may shrink. In China, Guangxi's sugar mills are in the peak - crushing period, and import pressure in the fourth quarter remains high. However, the import volume of syrup has decreased significantly. The domestic sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, with limited downward space [5] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Short - to - medium - term sugar prices should be treated with an oscillating - bottom - building mindset, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and capital disturbances [6] Pulp - **Market News and Key Data**: Pulp 2605 futures closed at 5,388 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.26%). In Shandong, the spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp was 5,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,965 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood - pulp spot market price was generally stable, with weak downstream follow - up [6] - **Market Analysis**: Pulp futures fluctuated narrowly. Supply - side factors such as overseas mill shutdowns and rising foreign quotes pushed up pulp prices, but the global wood - pulp inventory is still accumulating. In terms of demand, European port pulp inventory decreased in November, and domestic terminal demand is insufficient, with port inventory at a historical high [6] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Despite overseas supply disruptions and rising foreign quotes, domestic fundamentals have not improved, and pulp prices are expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short term [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of iron ore are expected to oscillate due to the game between expectations and reality [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to have wide - range oscillations [2][7]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide - range oscillations with cost as the bottom support [2][11]. - Coke has completed the first round of price increase and is expected to oscillate within a range; coking coal is expected to oscillate within a range [2][15][16]. - The supply and demand of thermal coal are both weakening, and the coal price is slightly rising [2][20]. - Logs are expected to oscillate within a range [2][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of futures I2605 was 783.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton (-0.63%); the positions decreased by 6,440. Among spot prices, most imported and domestic ores declined slightly, and the basis increased slightly [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December industrial enterprise profits above designated size increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual profit increased by 0.6%. Some real - estate enterprises are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 futures were 3,123 yuan/ton and 3,280 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 0.32% and 0.39%. The positions of RB2605 increased by 29,747, and those of HC2605 increased by 9,222. Spot prices in most regions decreased or remained unchanged, and the basis and spreads changed to varying degrees [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In December, the output of medium - thick plate rolling mills of key enterprises increased year - on - year, while that of hot - continuous and cold - continuous rolling mills decreased. In January 2026, the daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased, while that of pig iron and steel increased. The steel inventory of key enterprises increased. The social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased slightly. BHP's first - half iron ore output hit a record high, and it accepted partial price cuts. An explosion occurred at Baotou Steel's plate plant. China's steel imports in December 2025 increased in quantity and price. Some steel products are subject to export license management [7][9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coils, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of SiFe2603 and SiFe2605 were 5,632 and 5,606 respectively; the closing prices of SiMn2603 and SiMn2605 were 5,802 and 5,832 respectively. Spot prices and various spreads changed to different extents [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 28, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. The start - up rates and production of ferrosilicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Qinghai changed. Some steel mills determined the procurement prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1,134.5 yuan/ton, up 1.6%; the closing price of J2605 was 1,684 yuan/ton, up 1.0%. Spot prices of most coking coals and cokes remained unchanged, and the basis and spreads changed [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 28, the CCI metallurgical coal index was reported. The online coking coal auction had a 27% non - sale rate, and the market sentiment cooled down [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [19]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamentals**: The prices of thermal coal in production areas, ports, and overseas showed different degrees of change. The January long - term agreement prices of some regions decreased [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 28, the port market price was firm, with a slight increase in upstream quotes, but downstream demand was weak. The production area market was stable and slightly strong. In December 2025, China's coal production increased month - on - month, and the coal import volume in December 2025 exceeded expectations [22]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts changed to different degrees. The spot prices of most logs remained stable, and the spreads also changed [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December industrial enterprise profits above designated size increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual profit increased by 0.6%. Some real - estate enterprises are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [26].