Core Viewpoint - Zinc futures on the Shanghai market showed a significant upward trend, with the main contract reaching 25,130.00 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.20% [1] Market Data Summary - As of January 14, LME zinc inventory stood at 106,725 tons, a decrease of 175 tons, with registered warrants at 97,875 tons and canceled warrants at 8,850 tons, representing 8.29% of the total [2] - On January 14, the top 20 futures companies in Shanghai held a total long position of 147,100 contracts and a short position of 141,800 contracts, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 1.04. The net position increased by 477 contracts compared to the previous day, totaling 5,341 contracts [2] - Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a zinc warehouse receipt of 33,262 tons on January 14, down 351 tons from the previous trading day. Over the past week, the total decline in warehouse receipts was 7,657 tons, a decrease of 18.71%, and over the past month, the decline was 17,441 tons, a decrease of 34.40% [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guangzhou Futures noted that macro sentiment impact is weakening, with upstream raw material supply tightening and zinc smelting supply reducing. As the holiday approaches, downstream zinc operating rates are gradually declining, leading to rigid consumption sentiment in the high-priced zinc market. The rebalancing of domestic and international inventories may reopen the import window, potentially supplementing domestic supply. The basic supply-demand reality is weak, suggesting a short-term high-level oscillation, with a reference price range for the main Shanghai zinc contract between 23,000 and 24,500 CNY/ton [4] - Nanhua Futures indicated that the TC in January continues to decline, with the core issue being the tight domestic raw material supply. However, due to rising by-product prices, zinc smelting can maintain production at lower processing fees, keeping January output at a high level. From a long-term perspective, supply is expected to be loose, with the import window likely to open as LME continues to deliver. High zinc prices are suppressing downstream terminal consumption. Domestic inventory reduction supports Shanghai zinc, while LME inventory has surpassed 100,000 tons. Looking ahead, while the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc have potential for bullish sentiment, there is significant hedging pressure above, maintaining a view of strong oscillation [4]