能源化工日报 2026-01-08 2026/01/08 原油 【行情资讯】 INE 主力原油期货收跌 11.00 元/桶，跌幅 2.57%，报 416.30 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 34.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.38%，报 2437.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 67.00 元/吨，跌幅 2.29%，报 2860.00 元/吨。 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存去库 2.24 百万桶至 6.15 百万桶，环比去库 26.73%； 柴油库存累库 0.35 百万桶至 2.27 百万桶，环比累库 18.47%；燃料油库存去库 2.25 百万桶至 8.77 百万桶，环比去库 20.44%；总成品油去库 4.14 百万桶至 17.19 百万桶，环比去库 19.42%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维持对油价低多高抛的区间策略， 但当前油价仍需测试 OPEC 的出口挺价意愿，建议短期观望为主，等待油价下跌时 OPEC 出口下 滑做出验证。 2026/1/8 甲醇 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, polyethylene will experience a slight decline in inventory, a slight increase in basis, and a closed import window. With the end of the agricultural film peak season, supply and demand will remain weak, and the market will mainly fluctuate. In the fourth quarter, supply and demand will gradually ease, and it is advisable to short at high prices or conduct reverse spreads on monthly differences [2]. - In the short term, polypropylene will see a slight accumulation of inventory, an open export window, and weak supply and demand. The market will mainly fluctuate weakly. In the fourth quarter, with the commissioning of new plants, supply and demand will gradually ease, and it is advisable to short at high prices or conduct reverse spreads on monthly differences [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Spot Prices, Futures-Spot Price Differences, and Inter-Period Price Differences - This week, the inventory of the polyethylene industry chain decreased slightly. The spot price of LDPE and the main contract fluctuated slightly, the basis strengthened, and the 1/5 spread narrowed slightly. The spot price of polypropylene and the main contract also fluctuated slightly, the basis strengthened, and the 1/5 price narrowed slightly [14]. (2) Polyolefin US Dollar Prices and Import Profits - This week, the US dollar price of LLDPE mainly declined slightly, the RMB exchange rate depreciated slightly, the domestic price fluctuated slightly, the low-price import window closed, and the export window closed. The CFR price in China remained stable, and the discount spread between China and Southeast Asia narrowed to $20. - The US dollar price of polypropylene mainly declined slightly, the RMB exchange rate depreciated slightly, the domestic spot price fluctuated slightly, the low-price import window opened, and the export window closed [22]. (3) Polyolefin Industrial Profits and Price Differences - This week, the upstream crude oil price fluctuated slightly, the petroleum price fluctuated slightly, the olefin monomer fluctuated slightly, and the polyolefin price mainly declined slightly. The decline in crude oil was less than that of olefins, and the olefin production profit narrowed slightly. The increase in coal was greater than that of olefins, and the olefin production profit also narrowed slightly. The decline in propylene was greater than that of PP powder, the powder profit recovered, and the price difference between PP drawstring and powder narrowed slightly. - The profit of PE downstream production slightly narrowed as raw material and finished product prices remained stable, and it was at a normal level. The profit of PP downstream BOPP film slightly rebounded as raw material prices remained stable, but it was still at a relatively low level [32][44]. (4) Polyolefin Substitute-Related Price Differences - This week, the price difference between LLDPE and HDPE narrowed slightly and was at a normal low level. The support of HDPE for LLDPE became stronger. The production ratio of standard products increased slightly, providing general support for linear products. - The price difference between LLDPE and LDPE narrowed slightly and was at a low level. In the short term, the support of LDPE for LLDPE remained strong. - The price difference between copolymer and homopolymer widened slightly and was at a normal level. The production ratio of drawstring products increased slightly, providing general support for drawstring products. - The price difference between HD and PP narrowed slightly and was at a normal level. - The price difference between North China LLDPE and East China PP drawstring was 290 yuan/ton. - The price difference between PE new materials and PE recycled materials was at a normal low level and narrowed slightly, enhancing the support for PE new materials. The price difference between PP new materials and PP recycled materials was at a normal low level and narrowed slightly, enhancing the support for PP new materials [57]. (5) Supply and Demand, and Industrial Chain Inventory - In the second half of the year, the supply and demand of polyethylene will weaken, and the pressure will increase in the fourth quarter. The supply pressure of polypropylene will increase in the second half of the year, and the supply and demand pressure will increase in the third and fourth quarters. High-cost plants need to be shut down to achieve rebalancing. - According to the existing maintenance plans, the planned maintenance of polyethylene in 2025 will increase compared to 2024, with more maintenance in the second and third quarters. The maintenance of polypropylene in 2025 will also increase compared to 2024, with more in the first half of the year and less in the second half. - This week, the inventory of polyethylene production enterprises slightly accumulated and was at a normal level compared to the same period in previous years. The port inventory slightly decreased and was at a normal level. The social inventory slightly accumulated and was at a normal high level. The coal chemical inventory slightly increased and was at a normal level. - The inventory of two major state-owned oil companies' polypropylene slightly accumulated and was at a normal high level compared to previous years. The port inventory slightly increased and was at a normal level. The social inventory slightly decreased and was at a normal high level. The coal chemical inventory slightly decreased and was at a normal level. - This week, the spot prices of plastics and polypropylene continued to fluctuate slightly. The peak season for agricultural films is gradually ending, with a decline in orders. Downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is gradually ending, and downstream BOPP enterprises mainly replenished inventory at low prices [60][66][70] (6) Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - According to statistics from Zhuochuang Information, the average operating rate of powder this week was 41.82%, a month-on-month increase of 2.27% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.73%. - This week, the downstream operating rate of domestic polyethylene slightly decreased. The operating rate of agricultural films remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 3% year-on-year. The operating rate of packaging films remained flat month-on-month and year-on-year. The operating rate of monofilaments remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 1% year-on-year. The operating rate of films decreased by 1% month-on-month and increased by 4% year-on-year. The operating rate of blow molding remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 1% year-on-year. The operating rate of pipes remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 6% year-on-year. - This week, the operating rate of polypropylene downstream enterprises mainly decreased slightly. The operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat month-on-month and increased by 1% year-on-year. The operating rate of injection molding decreased by 1% month-on-month and 2% year-on-year. The operating rate of BOPP remained flat month-on-month and increased by 7% year-on-year [83][88][91]