Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant relationship between global copper inventory levels and copper prices, highlighting the importance of inventory metrics such as the inventory-to-sales ratio, net inventory changes, and cancellation warehouse ratios in understanding price movements [2][10][29]. Group 1: Global Copper Inventory Overview - Global copper inventory is primarily represented by publicly available data from major exchanges, including SMM China social inventory, LME inventory, and COMEX inventory, with LME historically holding the largest share [6][10]. - As of December 26, 2025, COMEX copper inventory reached 438,000 tons, a 417% increase from the beginning of the year, accounting for over 60% of the total inventory across the three major exchanges [6][10]. Group 2: Inventory-to-Sales Ratio and Copper Prices - The inventory-to-sales ratio serves as a key indicator of the balance between inventory and demand, reflecting how long current inventory can support future consumption [11][29]. - A regression analysis indicates that when copper prices are significantly below the regression line (by 15% or 25%), buying opportunities arise, with historical data showing a 100% success rate for purchases held for 12 months when prices are below the regression line by 25% [12][30]. Group 3: Inventory Change and Copper Prices - The net change in inventory is another important indicator, with a decrease suggesting tighter supply and potential price increases, while an increase indicates a looser supply situation [20][23]. - A strategy based on significant inventory changes (over 3%) shows higher success rates for buying when inventory decreases compared to when it increases, with a notable increase in success rates over longer holding periods [23][30]. Group 4: Cancellation Warehouse Ratios and Copper Prices - The cancellation warehouse ratio reflects market demand for inventory extraction, with higher ratios indicating stronger demand and tighter supply conditions [24][27]. - A strategy based on significant changes in cancellation warehouse ratios (over 5%) shows higher success rates for buying when the ratio increases, with positive average returns that improve with longer holding periods [27][28].