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宝城期货能化板块数据周报-20251107
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 08:04
Group 1: Core View - With positive progress in economic and trade tariffs between China and the US, the macro bullish expectations have been fulfilled, and the macro - driven force of energy - chemical commodities has weakened, being dominated by their respective supply - demand fundamentals. Some domestic energy - chemical commodities maintained a inventory - building trend this week, including rubber, methanol, ethylene glycol, polypropylene, plastic, and urea, while fuel oil, asphalt, styrene, PTA, and PVC showed de - stocking. Methanol, PVC, plastic, polypropylene, PTA, asphalt, and fuel oil maintained a weekly production - increasing trend, while the production of urea, ethylene glycol, and styrene decreased slightly. Currently, energy - chemical commodities generally face over - capacity, insufficient downstream terminal demand, and increasing inventory pressure, leading to a downward shift in the center of futures prices [6]. Group 2: Data Charts Rubber - Rubber data charts include rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao Free Trade Zone rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [7][9][11][13]. Methanol - Methanol data charts involve methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [18][20][22][25]. Crude Oil - Crude oil data charts cover crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [31][33][35][37]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil data charts include domestic high - sulfur fuel oil basis trend, high - sulfur fuel oil month spread trend, 2016 - 2025 domestic fuel oil production trend, 2020 - 2025 Singapore fuel oil inventory trend, 2022 - 2025 global major shipping index trend, and Shanghai Futures Exchange high - sulfur fuel oil futures inventory trend [45][46][48][50]. Asphalt - Asphalt data charts involve 2020 - 2025 domestic asphalt basis trend, asphalt month spread trend, 2016 - 2025 domestic asphalt production trend, 2016 - 2025 domestic refinery asphalt unit operating rate, 2020 - 2025 China's asphalt import volume trend, and 2016 - 2025 Shanghai Futures Exchange asphalt weekly inventory trend [59][60][61][63]. PTA - PTA data charts include 2020 - 2025 domestic PTA basis trend, 2020 - 2025 domestic PTA futures 1 - 5 month spread trend, 2020 - 2025 domestic PTA unit operating rate trend, 2016 - 2025 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange PTA warehouse receipts trend, 2016 - 2025 domestic PTA weekly production trend, and 2020 - 2025 PTA enterprise weekly inventory [70][71][73][76]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol data charts cover ethylene glycol basis trend, 1 - 5 month spread trend, 2021 - 2025 domestic ethylene glycol operating rate trend, 2018 - 2025 polyester industry chain operating rate trend, 2021 - 2025 domestic ethylene glycol weekly production trend, and 2018 - 2025 East China ethylene glycol inventory [85][87][89][92]. Styrene - Styrene data charts include 2020 - 2025 styrene basis trend, 2021 - 2025 styrene 1 - 5 month spread trend, 2016 - 2025 domestic styrene operating rate trend, 2020 - 2025 domestic styrene factory inventory trend, 2020 - 2025 East + South China port styrene inventory, and 2021 - 2025 styrene registered warehouse receipts volume [98][99][101][103]. Plastic - Plastic data charts involve LLDPE basis trend, 2019 - 2025 LLDPE 1 - 5 month spread trend, 2019 - 2025 domestic PE and LLDPE monthly production, 2020 - 2025 Dalian Commodity Exchange plastic warehouse receipts quantity, 2018 - 2025 domestic polyethylene import volume trend, and 2016 - 2025 domestic plastic products trend [109][110][113][115]. PP - PP data charts include polypropylene basis trend, polypropylene 1 - 5 month spread trend, 2010 - 2025 Taiwan polypropylene production, 2016 - 2025 domestic polypropylene downstream operating rate, 2016 - 2025 domestic PP import volume trend, and 2020 - 2025 domestic polypropylene warehouse receipts quantity trend [124][125][127][129]. PVC - PVC data charts involve 2019 - 2025 domestic PVC basis trend, 2019 - 2025 domestic PVC 1 - 5 month spread trend, 2016 - 2025 ethylene production trend, 2018 - 2025 domestic PVC import volume trend, 2020 - 2025 Dalian Commodity Exchange PVC warehouse receipts quantity, and 2018 - 2025 cumulative values of housing completion and sales area [136][137][139][141]. Urea - Urea data charts include 2019 - 2025 domestic urea spot price trend, 2020 - 2025 domestic urea 1 - 5 month spread trend, 2019 - 2025 domestic urea futures registered warehouse receipts, 2017 - 2025 domestic urea weekly operating rate, 2016 - 2025 domestic urea port inventory trend, and 2017 - 2025 domestic urea daily average production [149][150][152][153].