1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is in a high - level adjustment, and silver has seen a rapid price decline as the spot contradiction eases. The gold - silver ratio has risen from 78.6 to 85.6, mainly due to the sharp drop in silver prices. The first target for silver's downward movement is $47.5, and the second is $43 - 44. Gold needs a monthly - level price adjustment, but its bottom support is stronger than silver's [3]. - The US economic outlook is complex. Although the real demand is not weak, the expectations are affected by policies. The US government shutdown has continued for four weeks, and 10 - month hard data may be missing. Soft data shows an improvement in October's Markit manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs compared to September, with the new orders composite index reaching its highest level this year. However, the manufacturing employment index has dropped to a three - month low [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Price Spread - This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to - $15.345 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was - $22.7 per ounce [9]. - The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to $0.2135 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was - $0.27 per ounce [12]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Price Spread - This week, the gold spot - futures price spread was - 2.77 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16]. - The silver spot - futures price spread was - 15 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [19]. 3.1.3 Monthly Spread - This week, the gold monthly spread was 7.12 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [23]. - The silver monthly spread was 46 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [27]. 3.1.4 Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - For gold, the total cost of buying TD and selling Shanghai gold was 4.20 yuan per gram, and the cost of buying Shanghai gold December contract and selling June contract was 15.69 yuan per gram [30][31]. - For silver, the total cost of buying TD and selling Shanghai silver was 50.54 yuan per kilogram, and the cost of buying Shanghai silver December contract and selling June contract was 178.05 yuan per kilogram [32][33]. 3.1.5 Deferred Fee Payment Direction - This week, the gold exchange's deferred fee for gold was mainly paid by longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power. The same was true for silver [34]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.23 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 51.3%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 389 tons to 15,456 tons, and the registered warrant ratio dropped to 33.7%. Gold futures inventory increased by 2.41 tons, and silver futures inventory decreased by 255 tons to 664 tons [36][38][41]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - Commercial Position - This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, while that of silver decreased slightly [43]. 3.1.8 ETF Position - This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 12.31 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 77.59 tons [49][51]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio - This week, the gold - silver ratio fell from 78.6 to 85.6 [54]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rate - This week, the 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.13%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 13.86% [57]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rate - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rate recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [62]. 3.2.2 Inflation and Retail Sales Performance - Not summarized in detail as only relevant charts are provided without specific text analysis [67] 3.2.3 Non - Farm Employment Performance - Not summarized in detail as only relevant charts are provided without specific text analysis [70] 3.2.4 Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions - Not summarized in detail as only relevant titles are provided without specific content [75] 3.2.5 Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index - Not summarized in detail as only relevant titles are provided without specific content [77] 3.2.6 Fed Rate - Cut Probability - Not summarized in detail as only a title is provided without specific content [79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - **Gold**: The price was supported by strong buying after a decline, with a rebound due to disappointing US non - farm payroll data. The short - term gold - silver ratio may be in a rebound channel, and the overall gold and silver market lacks a clear trend, mainly in a range - bound pattern [7]. - **Silver**: The upward space is basically saturated, showing a relatively weak trend this week [7]. - **Copper**: Global total inventory increased, with a significant increase in LME inventory. The copper price's driving logic will shift from inventory - structure logic to fundamental logic. Although there are uncertainties in the macro - environment, there is support at the bottom. Downstream buyers are more active at low prices, and LME copper price may be weak, which is favorable for the internal - external reverse arbitrage [90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver 3.1.1 Price and Market Performance - This week, London gold rose 0.1%, and London silver fell 5.8%. The gold - silver ratio rose from 86.3 to 92.5. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.9%, and the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.23% [7]. - Gold prices initially declined but were supported by buying. After the disappointing non - farm payroll data on Friday, gold prices rebounded significantly [7]. 3.1.2 Transaction - related Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: Most gold and silver futures contracts showed price changes, with some gold contracts rising and silver contracts falling. For example, Comex gold 2510 rose 2.32%, while Comex silver 2510 fell 3.18% [9]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of gold and silver futures contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of沪银2510 decreased by 100,557 hands, and the open interest decreased by 85,634 hands [9]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.95 million ounces, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio fell to 54.7%. COMEX silver inventory increased by 6.34 million ounces to 506.66 million ounces, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 37.8% [42][44]. - **ETF Holdings**: The gold SPDR ETF inventory decreased by 4.01 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 145.51 tons [54][56]. 3.1.3 Price Spreads - **Overseas Spot - Futures Spreads**: The London spot - COMEX gold主力 spread fell to - 53.36 dollars per ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力 spread was - 55.9 dollars per ounce. The London spot - COMEX silver主力 spread converged to - 0.088 dollars per ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力 spread was - 0.345 dollars per ounce [14][17]. - **Domestic Spot - Futures Spreads**: The gold spot - futures spread was - 3.54 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range. The silver spot - futures spread was - 30 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [21][24]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The gold monthly spread was 6.9 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The silver monthly spread was 72 yuan per kilogram, at the upper end of the historical range [28][33]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Market and Fundamental Situation - **Inventory**: Global total inventory increased, with a significant increase in LME inventory. Domestic social inventory increased by 0.51 tons to 11.93 tons as of August 1, but the absolute inventory was at a relatively low level in the same period of history [90]. - **Supply**: The tight supply of copper concentrates has weakened, and the spot TC has rebounded marginally, but smelting is still in a large loss state. The refined - scrap copper price difference has narrowed, and the import of recycled copper is in a loss state, indicating a tight supply of recycled copper [90]. - **Demand**: Downstream and terminal enterprises increased raw material procurement at low prices. The copper spot premium expanded from 125 yuan per ton on July 25 to 175 yuan per ton on August 1 [90]. 3.2.2 Transaction - related Data - **Volatility**: The volatility of COMEX copper rebounded, while the volatility of copper in other markets declined [96]. - **Term Spreads**: The C - structure of Shanghai copper strengthened, and the LME copper spot discount was weak. The COMEX copper C - structure expanded [101]. - **Open Interest**: Shanghai copper open interest decreased by 27,900 hands to 482,600 hands, while the open interest of LME copper, international copper, and COMEX copper increased [102]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Long Net Positions**: The CFTC non - commercial long net positions decreased from 39,800 hands on July 22 to 37,300 hands on July 29 [108].