金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年10月26日 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银偏弱 价格区间：870-950元/克、10500-11590元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回落2.85%，伦敦银回落11.27%。金银比从前周的78.6回升至85.6，10年期TIPS回落至1.73%，10年期名义利率回落至4.02%（2 年期3.48%），美元指数录得98. 94。 ◆ 本周金银比回升至85，此前观点金银比看从80以下位置回升观点兑现。本次金银比回升主要由白银暴跌贡献，当现货挤兑问题随着中美物流搬 运而有所缓解，白银价格的下跌堪称必然。从空间来看，下方第一目标位47.5，第二目标位43-44美元，当下难言白银下跌风险已完全出清。 ◆ 黄金来看，周五公布美国CPI数据小幅低于预期，令其分时表现反弹。但由于美国政府关门已持续至第四周，参议院民主党人多次阻挠临时支出 法案，称如果不延长医疗保险补贴，他们就无法支持此类措施，10月美国硬数据或全部 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, while futures prices fluctuate and closed down 60 yuan/ton to 8,505 yuan/ton. September's export volume decreased by 8% month-on-month to 70,200 tons but remained year-on-year growth. In October, the supply of industrial silicon increased significantly, with a risk of inventory accumulation and price pressure. Although some enterprises in the southwest region reduced production, the impact on output was small, and the supply side still increased due to the increase in Xinjiang's output. Considering the potential increase in raw material costs such as coal prices and the rise in electricity prices in November, the future price center is expected to move up. Currently, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. If the price of the 11 - contract falls to the low level of 8,000 - 8,300 yuan/ton, one can consider buying on dips [1]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon rose by 0.2 yuan/kg to 53 yuan/kg, and the futures price fluctuated and slightly rebounded by 375 yuan/ton to 50,715 yuan/ton, with futures at a discount. On the demand side, the output of silicon wafers increased significantly, and the demand for battery wafers was supported by overseas purchases driven by India's ALMM policy and the demand for high - efficiency wafers in domestic centralized projects. It is highly likely that the output will increase in October. Whether the demand can absorb the increased output during the fourth - quarter rush installation and the increase in export orders will have a significant impact on prices. Currently, the polysilicon market is relatively stable. One should pay attention to policy implementation, production control, and whether there is an increase in demand orders. In the future, the supply in the southwest region will decrease during the dry season, which will support prices, but one should guard against the risk of inventory accumulation due to lower - than - expected demand [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash continues to weaken, with manufacturers' inventories and mid - stream delivery inventories increasing, highlighting the surplus. The weekly output is at a high level, and the surplus is obvious compared with the current rigid demand. Most of the inventory has been transferred to the mid - and downstream, and the trade inventory continues to rise. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. If there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction, the supply - demand situation will be further pressured. One can track macro fluctuations and the load - control situation of soda ash plants. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the operation idea is to short on rebounds [4]. - Glass manufacturers' sales are average, and they continue to cut prices. Hubei's price is basically at par with the futures market. In recent days, the futures market has continued to weaken, trading on the logic of a non - prosperous peak season and fundamental surplus. In addition, the mid - stream inventory in some regions remains high without obvious destocking. In terms of industry supply - demand, although the deep - processing orders have improved seasonally, they are still weak, and the LOW - E开工率 remains low without obvious peak - season characteristics. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear production capacity to solve the surplus problem. Currently, the futures market has been trading on the non - prosperous peak - season logic. In the medium term, one should pay attention to the spot trading rhythm, high - frequency data changes, and macro - level drivers [4]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the prices of overseas raw materials have been firm recently, and the significant destocking of dark - colored rubber still provides cost support for rubber prices. However, there is a strong expectation that the weather in northeastern Thailand will improve, and the raw material prices are expected to weaken. One should pay attention to future weather conditions. On the demand side, after the "Double Festival" holiday, most of the enterprises that had maintenance have resumed normal production, but the overall market has not shown obvious improvement. To control inventory growth, some enterprises are still in a state of flexible production control. It is expected that the enterprise equipment will operate stably in the short term, adjusting production according to their own orders. In summary, the short - term macro - environment has improved, and the rubber price has rebounded due to the improvement in fundamentals. One should pay attention to the raw material output in the peak - production season of the main producing areas and macro - level changes. If the raw material supply is smooth, the rubber price may decline further; if not, the rubber price is expected to operate around 15,000 - 15,500 [5]. Logs - The log futures fluctuated yesterday, with the 2601 contract closing at 838 yuan/cubic meter, up 3.5 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of the main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged, with the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong being 760 yuan/cubic meter and that in Jiangsu being 780 yuan/cubic meter. Last week, the inventory decreased. As of October 17, the total inventory of coniferous logs in the country was 2.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous week. On the demand side, the outbound volume increased. As of October 17, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 63,200 cubic meters, an increase of 5,900 cubic meters from the previous week. On the supply side, this week, 12 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 0 from the previous week; the total arrival volume is about 438,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 5%. Currently, there is no obvious driving force in the supply - demand of logs. The 01 contract is relatively strong. The new round of overseas quotes has increased, and the subsequent port fees are expected to rise, providing strong cost support. During the seasonal peak season, there is some support below the futures price, and the 01 contract may be strong [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The spot prices of East China's oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon, SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged on October 21 compared with October 20. The basis of oxygen - containing SI5530 increased by 60 to 845, with a 7.64% increase; the basis of SI4210 increased by 60 to 392, with a 17.91% increase; the basis of Xinjiang increased by 60 to 1045, with a 6.09% increase [1]. Inter - month Spread - The spread of 2510 - 2511 decreased by 45 to - 40, a decrease of 900%; the spread of 2511 - 2512 remained unchanged; the spread of 2512 - 2601 increased by 5 to 55, an increase of 10%; the spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 5 to - 10, an increase of 33.33%; the spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased by 15 to - 5, a decrease of 150% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon output increased by 35,100 tons to 420,800 tons, an increase of 9.10%; Xinjiang's output increased by 33,600 tons to 203,200 tons, an increase of 19.78%; Yunnan's output increased by 1,400 tons to 59,500 tons, an increase of 2.41%; Sichuan's output decreased by 800 tons to 52,900 tons, a decrease of 1.49%. The national operating rate increased by 6.07 percentage points to 61.94%; Xinjiang's operating rate increased by 13.39 percentage points to 74.00%; Yunnan's operating rate decreased by 5.68 percentage points to 41.71%; Sichuan's operating rate increased by 0.65 percentage points to 44.94%. The output of silicone DMC decreased by 12,900 tons to 210,200 tons, a decrease of 5.78%; the output of polysilicon decreased by 1,700 tons to 130,000 tons, a decrease of 1.29%; the output of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 46,000 tons to 661,000 tons, an increase of 7.48%. The export volume of industrial silicon decreased by 6,400 tons to 70,200 tons, a decrease of 8.36% [1]. Inventory Change - Xinjiang's factory inventory decreased slightly by 0.01% to 108,500 tons; Yunnan's factory inventory remained unchanged; Sichuan's factory inventory increased by 2.89% to 25,000 tons; the social inventory increased by 3.12% to 562,000 tons; the non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 6.45% to 317,700 tons; the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.92% to 244,300 tons [1]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feeding material increased by 200 yuan/ton to 53,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38%; the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged; the basis of N - type material decreased by 175 yuan/ton to 2,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.11% [2]. Futures Price and Inter - month Spread - The main contract price increased by 375 yuan/ton to 50,715 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74%. The spread of the current month - the first continuous contract increased by 52,265 yuan/ton to 1,925 yuan/ton, an increase of 103.82%; the spread of the first continuous - the second continuous contract increased by 130 yuan/ton to - 2,360 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.22%; the spread of the second continuous - the third continuous contract increased by 35 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton, an increase of 87.50% [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly) - The output of silicon wafers increased by 15,200 tons to 143,500 tons, an increase of 11.85%; the output of polysilicon remained unchanged at 31,000 tons [2]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The output of polysilicon decreased by 1,700 tons to 130,000 tons, a decrease of 1.29%; the import volume increased by 300 tons to 1,300 tons, an increase of 28.46%; the export volume decreased by 800 tons to 2,100 tons, a decrease of 28.16%; the net export volume decreased by 1,100 tons to 900 tons, a decrease of 56.83%. The output of silicon wafers increased by 30,100 tons to 590,500 tons, an increase of 5.37%; the import volume decreased by 100 tons to 400 tons, a decrease of 17.96%; the export volume remained unchanged at 6,700 tons; the net export volume increased by 100 tons to 6,300 tons, an increase of 1.96%. The demand for silicon wafers increased by 27,200 tons to 613,400 tons, an increase of 4.64% [2]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 253,000 tons, an increase of 5.42%; the silicon wafer inventory increased by 5,300 tons to 173,100 tons, an increase of 3.16%; the polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 140 to 9,290 [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Price and Spread - The prices of glass in North China, East China, South China remained unchanged or decreased slightly. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased slightly. The 05 basis decreased by 15 to - 76, a decrease of 24.59% [4]. Soda Ash - related Price and Spread - The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased slightly. The 05 basis increased by 6 to 2, an increase of 150% [4]. Supply - The operating rate of soda ash increased by 3.37 percentage points to 88.41%, and the weekly output increased by 25,000 tons to 770,800 tons, an increase of 3.37%. The daily melting volume of float glass increased by 2,000 tons to 161,300 tons, an increase of 1.16%; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [4]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory increased by 5.84% to 62,824,000 weight boxes; the soda ash factory inventory increased by 3.74% to 1.6598 million tons; the soda ash delivery inventory increased by 4.05% [4]. Real - estate Data (Month - on - Month) - The new construction area increased by 0.09 percentage points to - 0.09%; the construction area decreased by 2.43 percentage points to 0.05%; the completion area decreased by 0.03 percentage points to - 0.22%; the sales area decreased by 6.50 percentage points to - 6.55% [4]. Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex rubber remained unchanged; the basis of full - latex decreased by 340 to - 850, a decrease of 66.67%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,550 yuan/ton; the non - standard price difference decreased by 240 to - 600, a decrease of 66.67%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber increased by 0.25 baht/kg to 50.45 baht/kg; the FOB intermediate price of glue remained unchanged. The price of natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna increased by 300 yuan/ton to 12,800 yuan/ton; the price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna remained unchanged. The market mainstream price of raw materials in Hainan decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,800 yuan/ton [5]. Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5 to - 5, a decrease of 10%; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 to 5, an increase of 200%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 5 to - 50, a decrease of 11.11% [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, Thailand's rubber production decreased by 20,000 tons to 458,800 tons, a decrease of 0.43%; Indonesia's production decreased by 85,000 tons to 189,000 tons, a decrease of 4.30%; India's production increased by 5,000 tons to 50,000 tons, an increase of 11.11%; China's production increased by 12,200 tons to 113,700 tons. The operating rate of semi - steel tires increased by 26.21 percentage points to 72.72%; the operating rate of full - steel tires increased by 20.56 percentage points to 64.52%. In August, the domestic tire output increased by 859,000 to 102.954 million; in September, the tire export volume decreased by 671,000 to 5.63 million. In August, the total import volume of natural rubber increased by 46,000 tons to 520,800 tons, an increase of 9.68%; in September, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 80,000 tons to 740,000 tons, an increase of 12.12%. The production cost of dry rubber (STR20) in Thailand increased by 67 yuan/ton to 12,717 yuan/ton,

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - **Gold**: The price was supported by strong buying after a decline, with a rebound due to disappointing US non - farm payroll data. The short - term gold - silver ratio may be in a rebound channel, and the overall gold and silver market lacks a clear trend, mainly in a range - bound pattern [7]. - **Silver**: The upward space is basically saturated, showing a relatively weak trend this week [7]. - **Copper**: Global total inventory increased, with a significant increase in LME inventory. The copper price's driving logic will shift from inventory - structure logic to fundamental logic. Although there are uncertainties in the macro - environment, there is support at the bottom. Downstream buyers are more active at low prices, and LME copper price may be weak, which is favorable for the internal - external reverse arbitrage [90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver 3.1.1 Price and Market Performance - This week, London gold rose 0.1%, and London silver fell 5.8%. The gold - silver ratio rose from 86.3 to 92.5. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.9%, and the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.23% [7]. - Gold prices initially declined but were supported by buying. After the disappointing non - farm payroll data on Friday, gold prices rebounded significantly [7]. 3.1.2 Transaction - related Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: Most gold and silver futures contracts showed price changes, with some gold contracts rising and silver contracts falling. For example, Comex gold 2510 rose 2.32%, while Comex silver 2510 fell 3.18% [9]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of gold and silver futures contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of沪银2510 decreased by 100,557 hands, and the open interest decreased by 85,634 hands [9]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.95 million ounces, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio fell to 54.7%. COMEX silver inventory increased by 6.34 million ounces to 506.66 million ounces, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 37.8% [42][44]. - **ETF Holdings**: The gold SPDR ETF inventory decreased by 4.01 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 145.51 tons [54][56]. 3.1.3 Price Spreads - **Overseas Spot - Futures Spreads**: The London spot - COMEX gold主力 spread fell to - 53.36 dollars per ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力 spread was - 55.9 dollars per ounce. The London spot - COMEX silver主力 spread converged to - 0.088 dollars per ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力 spread was - 0.345 dollars per ounce [14][17]. - **Domestic Spot - Futures Spreads**: The gold spot - futures spread was - 3.54 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range. The silver spot - futures spread was - 30 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [21][24]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The gold monthly spread was 6.9 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The silver monthly spread was 72 yuan per kilogram, at the upper end of the historical range [28][33]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Market and Fundamental Situation - **Inventory**: Global total inventory increased, with a significant increase in LME inventory. Domestic social inventory increased by 0.51 tons to 11.93 tons as of August 1, but the absolute inventory was at a relatively low level in the same period of history [90]. - **Supply**: The tight supply of copper concentrates has weakened, and the spot TC has rebounded marginally, but smelting is still in a large loss state. The refined - scrap copper price difference has narrowed, and the import of recycled copper is in a loss state, indicating a tight supply of recycled copper [90]. - **Demand**: Downstream and terminal enterprises increased raw material procurement at low prices. The copper spot premium expanded from 125 yuan per ton on July 25 to 175 yuan per ton on August 1 [90]. 3.2.2 Transaction - related Data - **Volatility**: The volatility of COMEX copper rebounded, while the volatility of copper in other markets declined [96]. - **Term Spreads**: The C - structure of Shanghai copper strengthened, and the LME copper spot discount was weak. The COMEX copper C - structure expanded [101]. - **Open Interest**: Shanghai copper open interest decreased by 27,900 hands to 482,600 hands, while the open interest of LME copper, international copper, and COMEX copper increased [102]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Long Net Positions**: The CFTC non - commercial long net positions decreased from 39,800 hands on July 22 to 37,300 hands on July 29 [108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, London gold rebounded by 0.1%, while London silver declined by 5.8%. The gold - silver ratio rose from 86.3 to 92.5. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.9%, and the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.23% [3]. - Gold prices initially faced downward pressure due to factors like tariff decisions and strong economic data but were supported by returning long - term funds. After the disappointing US non - farm payrolls data on Friday, gold prices rebounded significantly [3]. - In the short term, the gold - silver ratio may be in a rebound channel, but it's hard to predict a clear trend for gold and silver. Technical signals may be more effective than fundamental factors, and the prices generally remain in the previously predicted range - bound pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review - **Price and Price Changes**: Most gold and silver futures and spot prices showed fluctuations. For example, Comex gold 2510 rose 2.32%, while Comex silver 2510 fell 3.18% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: Trading volumes and open interests of different gold and silver contracts changed. For instance, the trading volume of沪银2510 decreased by 100,557 hands, and its open interest decreased by 85,634 hands [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.95 million ounces, and its registered warrant ratio fell to 54.7%. COMEX silver inventory increased by 6.34 million ounces to 506.66 million ounces, and its registered warrant ratio rose to 37.8% [37][39]. - **Spread Changes**: Various spreads, including overseas and domestic spot - futures spreads, monthly spreads, and cross - market spreads, changed. For example, the London spot - COMEX gold主力spread fell to - 53.36 dollars per ounce [8][9]. 3.2 Transaction - related Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Open Interest) - **Overseas Spot - Futures Spreads**: This week, the London spot - COMEX gold主力spread fell to - 53.36 dollars per ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力spread was - 55.9 dollars per ounce. The London spot - COMEX silver主力spread converged to - 0.088 dollars per ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力spread was - 0.345 dollars per ounce [8][9][12]. - **Domestic Spot - Futures Spreads**: The gold spot - futures spread was - 3.54 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range. The silver spot - futures spread was - 30 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [16][19]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The gold monthly spread was 6.9 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The silver monthly spread was 72 yuan per kilogram, at the upper end of the historical range [23][28]. - **Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Costs**: The report calculated the cross - month positive arbitrage delivery costs for gold and silver, including costs such as delivery fees, storage fees, and capital costs [31][32][33][34]. - **Deferred Fee Payment Directions**: This week, the gold exchange's deferred fee for gold and silver was mainly paid by longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power [35]. - **Inventory and Open Interest - Inventory Ratios**: COMEX gold and silver inventories changed, and their registered warrant ratios also changed [37][39]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions**: This week, the non - commercial net long positions in COMEX gold and silver both declined slightly [44]. - **ETF Holdings**: This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory decreased by 4.01 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 145.51 tons [50][52]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: This week, the gold - silver ratio rose from 86 to 92.5 [55]. - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates**: This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was - 0.23%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 1.77% [57]. 3.3 Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rates**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [62]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance**: Data on US PCE, core PCE, retail and food service sales were presented [67][68]. - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: Data on US non - farm employment, including new non - farm employment, unemployment claims, labor force participation rate, and unemployment rate, were provided [70][71][72]. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: Not detailed in the content - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: Not detailed in the content - **Fed Rate - cut Probability**: The report showed the Fed rate - cut probabilities in different regions and at different times [80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The import supply pressure of sugar may increase in the second half of the year. If the external market price does not rebound significantly, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline. [2][4] - The current domestic sugar price spread structure is contradictory. The 9 - 1 spread of Zhengzhou sugar has a positive spread, while the 7 - 9 spread has a reverse spread, which is contrary to the theoretical situation. [15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Import Supply Pressure - Since mid - May, the international sugar price has continued to decline. The price of ICE raw sugar October contract has weakened from over 18 cents per pound, and the July contract once fell below 15 cents per pound. The low delivery price and small quantity indicate insufficient actual demand. [4] - With the decline of the external market price, China's out - of - quota import cost has dropped from around 6200 yuan per ton to about 5600 yuan per ton. Currently, China is in the best import profit window in the past 5 years, with the out - of - quota spot import profit exceeding 600 yuan per ton and the out - of - quota import profit on the futures market exceeding 100 yuan per ton. The import supply is likely to increase in the second half of the year. [4] - In June, Brazil exported 3360000 tons of sugar, an increase of 1100000 tons from May and 160000 tons from last year. The sugar exported to China in June was 760000 tons, an increase of 240000 tons from May and 320000 tons from last year. The supply of processed sugar in the spot market has increased recently. [5] 3.2 Domestic Price Spread Structure - As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season has ended. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03%. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons, or 23.07%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The industrial inventory was 3048300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322100 tons. [14] - If the import supply increases as expected in the second half of the year, the basis between the spot and futures prices may return, and it is more likely that the spot price will return to the futures price. [15] - The monthly spread structure of the futures market is contradictory. The 9 - 1 spread of Zhengzhou sugar has a positive spread, the 7 - 9 spread has a reverse spread, and the 1 - 5 spread fluctuates around 50 yuan per ton. The valuation of the September contract of Zhengzhou sugar is relatively high compared with other contracts. [15]