2026 年 2 月 26 日 硅铁：地产情绪扰动，板块低位震荡 锰硅：地产情绪扰动，板块低位震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2603 | 5492 | 1 6 | 5,859 | 9,618 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2605 | 5486 | 1 6 | 104,314 | 224,182 | | | 锰硅2603 | 5710 | 1 4 | 7,664 | 18,340 | | | 锰硅2605 | 5752 | 1 4 | 140,366 | 453,701 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | 现 货 | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 5170 | -30.0 | 元/吨 | | | 硅锰:FeM ...

成文日期：20260205 报告周期: 日报 究员:杜宇（从业资格号：F3075043; 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0017815) 沪铜期货日报 1期货市场 2026年2月5日，上海期货交易所铜期货主力合约(CU.SHF)呈 现显著下跌态势。当日开盘价为 10.4万元/吨,最高价达到 10.47 万 元/吨,最低价下探至10.047万元/吨,最终以10.098万元/吨收盘。 全天跌幅达 3.76%，成交活跃度保持在较高水平,成交量为 285,586手,持仓量为 182,336 手。 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线: 4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 产业链上下游动态方面，海外科技资产夜间较大幅度下跌，市 场对 AI 泡沫担忧加强、特别是下游需求端可能发生变化。 4 行情展望 短期来看,铜价呈现明显弱势格局,空头占据主动,行情波动 较大,受市场情绪影响明显,应保持谨慎。同时,需关注现货市场 价格走势及期现价差变化，以及主力资金流向和持仓变动情况。 风险揭示及免责声明 2 现货市场基差分析 2 月 5 日中国有色市场铜平均价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given reports. 2. Core Views 2.1. Precious Metals - The short - term market for precious metals is affected by geopolitical situations and the upcoming Fed decision. Gold prices are expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. It is recommended to take profits on gold long positions at high prices and buy out - of - the - money call options instead of taking long positions. [3] - For silver, rising raw material costs may reduce industrial demand, but new demand from AI and other fields may support prices. ETF holdings are falling due to regulatory restrictions, and short - term prices may experience sharp fluctuations. It is advisable to pay attention to risk - control measures and adopt a strategy of buying on dips with light positions. [3] - Platinum and palladium prices are supported by their macro - financial attributes and tight supply, and their price centers are rising in tandem with gold. However, the easing supply in the London spot market may limit the upside. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell at high prices within a day. [3] 2.2. Container Shipping - The container shipping market shows a downward trend in freight rates. The SCFIS and SCFI indices for major routes have declined, and most futures contracts have also decreased. Although there are some positive signs in fundamentals such as an increase in port punctuality and export volume, the overall market remains under pressure. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Spot - Futures Spread**: F has a spot - futures spread of 12.51, H has 11.61, IC has - 1.33, and IM has - 24.95. Their historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles vary, and there are also changes compared to the previous day. [1] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: There are significant differences in inter - delivery spreads (such as next - month minus current - month, quarterly - month minus current - month, etc.) among different varieties, and their percentiles also show different levels. [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratio**: Ratios such as CSI 300/Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 1000/CSI 300, and others have their own values, changes, and percentiles. [1] 3.2. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **IRR and Basis**: Different varieties (TS, TF, T, TL) have their own implied repo rates (IRR) and basis values, along with changes compared to the previous day and their percentiles since listing. [2] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Each variety has inter - delivery spreads (such as current - quarter minus next - quarter, next - quarter minus the quarter after next), with corresponding changes and percentiles. [2] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Spreads between different varieties (TS - T, TF - T, etc.) are provided, along with their changes and percentiles. [2] 3.3. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: For AU2604, AG2604, PT2606, and PD2606 contracts, their closing prices on January 27 and 26, price changes, and percentage changes are given. [3] - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: Closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of COMEX gold, silver, NYMEX platinum, and palladium futures on January 27 and 26 are presented. [3] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of London gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, as well as Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + D products, are provided, along with their changes and percentage changes. [3] - **Basis**: The basis values of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract, silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract, etc., their changes, and historical 1 - year percentiles are shown. [3] - **Price Ratios**: Ratios such as COMEX gold/silver, Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver, etc., their changes, and percentage changes are given. [3] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Values, changes, and percentage changes of 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yields, US dollar index, and offshore RMB exchange rate are presented. [3] - **Inventory and Holdings**: Inventory and holding data of Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX for gold and silver, as well as ETF holdings, are provided, along with their changes and percentage changes. [3] 3.4. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Shipping Indices**: SCFIS (European and US - West routes) and SCFI (composite, European, US - West, and US - East routes) indices show their values, changes, and percentage changes on different dates. [5] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of different contracts (EC2602, EC2604, etc.) and the basis of the main contract are provided, along with their changes and percentage changes. [5] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply, port punctuality, port calls, monthly export volume, and overseas economic indicators (such as Eurozone PMI, EU consumer confidence index, US manufacturing PMI, etc.) are presented, along with their changes and percentage changes. [5]

Report on Stock Index Futures Spread Core Information - **Date**: January 23, 2026 - **Analysis of Spread Data**: - **Futures - Spot Spread**: F期现价差 latest value is -4.31, H期现价差 is 8.07, IC期现价差 is 12.41, IM期现价差 is -16.75 [1] - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: For example, 次月 - 当月 spread in different contracts has various values and historical percentile rankings, like -2.60 with a 1 - year percentile of 87.70% and all - time percentile of 54.20% in some cases [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratio**: IC/IF is 1.7799, IC/IH is 2.7440, IF/IH is 1.5417, etc., with corresponding historical percentile rankings [1] Report on Treasury Bond Futures Spread Core Information - **Date**: January 23, 2026 - **Analysis of Spread Data**: - **Basis Spread**: TS基差 is 1.4233, TF基差 is 1.4873, T基差 is 1.6004, TL基差 is 2.0488, with changes compared to the previous day and historical percentile rankings [2] - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: Different contracts' 当季 - 下季, 下季 - 隔季 spreads have specific values and historical percentile rankings, e.g., TS跨期价差 当季 - 下季 is -0.0420 with a 17.50% historical percentile [2] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: TS - TF is -3.4270, TS - T is -5.7420, TF - T is -2.3150, etc., with changes and historical percentile rankings [2] Report on Precious Metals Futures - Spot Core Information - **Date**: January 23, 2026 - **Price and Spread Analysis**: - **Domestic Futures Closing Price**: AU2604合约 closed at 1087.58 yuan/g, AG2604合约 at 23339 yuan/ten grams, etc., with price changes and percentage changes [4] - **Foreign Futures Closing Price**: COMEX黄金主力合约 closed at 4938.40, COMEX白银主力合约 at 96.22, etc., with price changes and percentage changes [4] - **Spot Price**: London gold is 4938.35, London silver is 96.20, etc., with price changes and percentage changes [4] - **Basis Spread**: Gold TD - 沪金主力 is -3.66, Silver TD - 沪银主力 is -10794, etc., with changes and historical percentile rankings [4] - **Ratio**: COMEX金/银 is 51.33, 上期所金/银 is 46.60, etc., with price changes and percentage changes [4] - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.26%, 2 - year US Treasury yield is 3.61%, etc., with changes and percentage changes [4] - **Inventory and Position**: 上期所黄金库存 is 102009 kg, 上期所白银库存 is 589052, etc., with changes and percentage changes [4]

Report 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View No clear core view presented. 3. Summary by Relevant Content - **Futures - Spot Price Spread**: IF futures - spot price spread was -4.83, H was 2.42, IC was -16.47, and IM was -45.38 [1]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: For example, IF's next - near delivery spread was -0.40, and H's next - near delivery spread was 0.60 [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratio**: For instance, IC/IF was 1.7290, and IC/IH was 0.0080 [1]. Report 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View No clear core view presented. 3. Summary by Relevant Content - **Basis**: TS basis was 1.3432, TF was 1.8720, T was 1.9553, and TL was 0.5772 on January 15, 2026 [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: For example, TS's current - next delivery spread was -0.0040 on January 15, 2026 [2]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: TS - TF was -3.3840, TS - T was -5.6590 on January 15, 2026 [2]. Report 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The short - term news impact weakens, and the market maintains a strong and volatile trend with reduced fluctuations. Gold long positions above the 20 - day moving average can continue to be held, and out - of - the - money put options can be sold to earn time value [3]. - For silver, the cancellation of photovoltaic export tax rebates after April 1 may lead to a "rush to export" situation. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position and lock in profits when the price is high [3]. - Platinum and palladium are expected to continue to rise in the medium - to - long - term. In the short - term, they follow the strong trend of gold [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content - **Domestic Futures Closing Price**: On January 15, AU2602 contract closed at 1035.20 yuan/g, down 0.52% from the previous day; AG2604 contract closed at 22665 yuan/kg, down 0.43% [3]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Price**: COMEX gold closed at 4620.50 dollars/ounce, down 0.29%; COMEX silver closed at 92.21 dollars/ounce, down 1.05% [3]. - **Spot Price**: London gold was at 4615.52 dollars/ounce, down 0.23%; Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1033.92 yuan/g, down 0.36% [3]. - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis was -1.28, and the historical 1 - year quantile was 46.10% [3]. - **Ratio**: COMEX gold/silver ratio was 50.11, up 0.77% [3]. - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.17%, up 0.5%; 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.56%, up 1.4% [3]. - **Inventory and Position**: Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory remained unchanged at 100152 kg, and silver inventory increased by 1.54% to 638399 kg [3]. Report 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View No clear core view presented. 3. Summary by Relevant Content - **Container Shipping Index**: SCFIS (European route) was 1956.39, up 8.94% from January 5; SCFIS (US West route) was 1323.98, up 5.91% [5]. - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Rate**: SCFI comprehensive index was 1647.39, down 0.54% from December 26; SCFI (European) was 1719 dollars/TEU, up 1.72% [5]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: EC2602 contract closed at 1719.0 points, up 0.06% on January 15; the basis of the main contract was 431.5, up 1.82% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply was 3369.42 million TEU on January 15, almost unchanged from the previous day; Shanghai port's on - time rate was 41.81, up 4.53% in December [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For ferrosilicon, the steel tender pricing is settled, and caution should be exercised regarding market sentiment. For silicomanganese, the inquiry sentiment is strong after the holiday, and waiting for the steel tender settlement [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - Ferrosilicon 2603 closed at 5672, down 78 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 225,315 and an open interest of 218,692. Ferrosilicon 2605 closed at 5628, down 78, with a trading volume of 28,644 and an open interest of 47,924. Silicomanganese 2603 closed at 5920, down 22, with a trading volume of 146,560 and an open interest of 267,767. Silicomanganese 2605 closed at 5936, down 12, with a trading volume of 66,562 and an open interest of 206,794 [1] 3.1.2 Spot Market - The aggregated price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5320 yuan/ton. The price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5650 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 42.5 yuan/ton - degree. The price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 760 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.3 Price Spreads - The spot - futures spread of ferrosilicon (spot - 03 futures) was - 352 yuan/ton, up 78. The spot - futures spread of silicomanganese (spot - 03 futures) was - 270 yuan/ton, up 22. The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2603 - 2605 was 44 yuan/ton, unchanged. The near - far month spread of silicomanganese 2603 - 2605 was - 16 yuan/ton, down 10. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2603 - ferrosilicon 2603 was 248 yuan/ton, up 56. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2605 - ferrosilicon 2605 was 308 yuan/ton, up 66 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On January 4, the prices of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions were: Shaanxi 5150 - 5300 (+25), Ningxia 5300 - 5350, Qinghai 5200 - 5300, Gansu 5250 - 5350, Inner Mongolia 5300 - 5350 (+50); 75 ferrosilicon: Shaanxi 5600 - 5700, Ningxia 5600 - 5650, Qinghai 5600, Gansu 5550 - 5600, Inner Mongolia 5650 - 5700 (+50). The FOB prices were 721030 - 1050(+10), 751090 - 1120 (US dollars/ton,含税). The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton; the southern quotation was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton (-25) [2] - Hegang set the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon for January at 5760 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from December, with a quantity of 3313 tons, an increase of 563 tons from December [2] - In December 2025, the manganese ore dredging volume at Tianjin Port was 2,388,476 tons, a 17.28% increase from November's 2,036,533 tons and a 14.49% decrease from December 2024's 2,793,090 tons. From January to December 2025, the manganese ore dredging volume at Tianjin Port was 23,913,195 tons, a 15.17% increase from the same period in 2024, an increase of 3.15 million tons [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon was 0; the trend intensity of silicomanganese was 0 [3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views - The reports mainly present the daily data of futures spreads, including stock index futures, bond futures, precious metals futures, and container shipping futures, such as current prices, historical quantiles, changes from the previous day, and various spread and ratio data, to help investors understand the market situation [1][2][3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spreads - **Spot - Futures Spreads**: IF was -46.82, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 11.00% and an all - time quantile of 5.60%, down 5.65 from the previous day. IH was -1.83, IC was -132.46, and IM was -15.60 [1]. - **Inter - Period Spreads**: Different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM have different spread values and historical quantiles, showing the price differences between different contract periods [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, and IC/IF are provided, along with their current values, historical quantiles, and changes from the previous day [1]. Bond Futures - **Basis**: TS was 1.5048, TF was 1.0558, T was 1.3050, and TL was 0.8932, with corresponding changes and historical quantiles [2]. - **Inter - Period Spreads**: Different contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL show various inter - period spread values and historical quantiles [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, and TF - T are presented, along with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. Precious Metals Futures and Spot - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: AU2602 rose 2.14% to 1000.86 yuan/gram, AG2602 rose 5.42% to 16210 yuan/kilogram, etc. [3]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: COMEX gold rose 0.10% to 4334.30 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 3.29% to 64.13 dollars/ounce, etc. [3]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold rose 0.11% to 4304.00 dollars/ounce, London silver rose 3.40% to 64.03 dollars/ounce, etc. [3]. - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was -8.74, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 0.40%, etc. [3]. - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver ratio decreased 3.09% to 67.59, etc. [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.2% to 4.17%, 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.1% to 3.44%, etc. [3]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory remained unchanged at 91716 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory rose 0.32% to 36120091 ounces, etc. [3]. Container Shipping Industry - **Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS (European route) rose 5.21% to 1589.20 points, SCFIS (US West route) rose 3.00% to 952.10 points, etc. [4]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2602 (main contract) rose 8.84% to 1871.8, and the basis of the main contract was -282.6, down 116.39% from the previous value [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply rose 0.09% to 3364.19 million TEU, Shanghai port on - time rate fell 18.50% to 40.00%, etc. [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports present a comprehensive analysis of various financial markets including stock index futures, bond futures, precious metals, and container shipping. They detail price movements, spreads, and related market indicators for different contracts and time periods, offering insights into market trends and potential investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures (Doc 1) - **Price Differences**: Provides price differences for various stock index futures contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, including current - month, next - month, and far - month spreads, as well as inter - period and cross - period spreads. For example, the IF period - to - period spread shows different values and percentage changes [1]. - **Quantile Information**: Presents historical 1 - year and all - time quantiles for price differences, helping to assess the relative position of current spreads [1]. Bond Futures (Doc 2) - **Basis and Spreads**: Details basis values for TS, TF, T, and TL bond futures, along with cross - period and cross - variety spreads. For instance, the T basis on 2025 - 12 - 19 was 1.6707 with a 0.0450 change from the previous day [2]. - **Percentile Data**: Includes the percentile of spreads since the futures contract listing, which is useful for understanding the spread's historical position [2]. Precious Metals (Doc 3) - **Price Movements**: Covers domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. For example, the AU2602 contract price decreased by 0.06% from 980.50 to 979.90 yuan/gram on December 19 [3]. - **Basis and Ratios**: Analyzes basis values between spot and futures prices and price ratios between different precious metals, such as the COMEX gold/silver ratio which decreased by 3.09% to 67.59 [3]. Container Shipping (Doc 5) - **Index Movements**: Tracks the movement of shipping indices like SCFIS and SCFI, showing changes in European and US routes. For example, the SCFIS (European route) increased by 0.10% to 1510.56 points on December 15 [5]. - **Futures and Fundamentals**: Provides futures prices and basis values for container shipping contracts, along with fundamental data such as global container capacity supply, port performance, and overseas economic indicators [5].

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