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芳烃橡胶早报-20250929
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 00:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Views - **PTA**: Near - term TA has both maintenance and restart, with a slight increase in start - up. Polyester load drops, inventory accumulates slightly, and basis is stable. Spot processing fees continue to recover. In the future, TA has additional reduction and production cut plans, but considering the lack of super - expected performance in polyester, the far - month is expected to accumulate inventory. After the valuation recovers, the far - month processing fee is relatively reasonable. Attention should be paid to additional maintenance situations [2] - **MEG**: Near - term domestic oil - based start - up is stable, coal - based maintenance is implemented, and there is some overseas maintenance. Port inventory accumulates slightly. Downstream stocking level drops, basis weakens, and the benefit ratio further shrinks. In the future, new EG devices are put into production earlier than expected, and the valuation is significantly compressed. With the increase in arrivals and high - supply expectations in the far - month, ports may start to accumulate inventory, but the current inventory is not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the coal - based cost support [4] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Near - term device operation is stable, start - up is maintained at 95.4%, sales improve, and inventory is significantly reduced. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn is stable, raw material stocking increases, and finished product inventory is reduced. In the future, the speed of increasing load may slow down due to high finished product inventory in the polyester yarn end. The start - up of staple fiber remains high due to good spot benefits, but the inventory pressure is limited, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [4] - **Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber**: The main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory is stable and at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup rubber is stable while rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [4] - **Styrene**: The prices of related products such as ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene show certain daily changes, and the domestic profits of styrene and related products also change accordingly [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Data Changes**: From September 22 - 26, the price of PTA - related products such as crude oil, naphtha, PX CFR Taiwan, and PTA inner - market spot has certain changes. The average daily trading basis of PTA spot is 2601(-74). The PTA device has changes including the restart of Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million - ton device and the shutdown of Ineos' 1.25 million - ton device. The near - term TA start - up slightly increases, polyester load drops, inventory accumulates slightly, basis is stable, and spot processing fees continue to recover [2][9] MEG - **Data Changes**: From September 22 - 26, the prices of Northeast Asian ethylene, MEG outer - market price, MEG inner - market price, etc. change. The MEG device has changes including the restart of Xinjiang Tianye's 600,000 - ton device and the maintenance of Shanxi Meijin's 300,000 - ton device. Near - term domestic oil - based start - up is stable, coal - based maintenance is implemented, and port inventory accumulates slightly [4] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Data Changes**: From September 22 - 26, the prices of 1.4D cotton - type, low - melting - point staple fiber, etc. change. Near - term device operation is stable with a start - up of 95.4%, sales improve, and inventory is significantly reduced. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn is stable, raw material stocking increases, and finished product inventory is reduced [4] Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - **Data Changes**: From September 22 - 26, the prices of US - dollar Thai standard spot, US - dollar Thai mixed spot, etc. change. The main contradictions are stable national explicit inventory at a low level and stable Thai cup rubber price with rainfall affecting rubber tapping [4] Styrene - **Data Changes**: From September 22 - 26, the prices of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia), pure benzene (CFR China), etc. change. The domestic profits of styrene and related products such as EPS, PS, and ABS also change accordingly [7]